- Joined
- Jun 18, 2018
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"The war in Ukraine...has...become a slow-motion demonstration of Russia’s decline—less a catalyst of national revival than a case study in national self-harm. Moscow has devoted considerable resources, manpower, and political will to its invasion of the country next door. In purely military terms, it has managed not to lose and may even be eking its way toward some sort of attritional victory in the Donbas. But even if it consolidates its territorial gains and keeps Ukraine out of NATO, Russia will have won only a pyrrhic victory, mortgaging its future for the sake of a few bombed-out square kilometers. In other words, Russia is effectively losing the war in Ukraine—not to Ukraine, but to everyone else.
The one place Russia has effectively influenced is Europe...Putin appears to have engineered a strange geopolitical bargain: Moscow sacrifices its demographically scarce young men in the Donbas so that Europeans will finally buy air defenses. At home, Russia’s wartime economy looks like a parody of Soviet stagnation, exactly what Putin warned against in the early years of his presidency. Factories churn out shells and missiles even as the rest of the world invests in artificial intelligence, green technology, and microchips. The Kremlin has succeeded in building a fortress economy, but one that is fortified against the future more than against the enemy. This would be funny if it weren’t so tragic for Russia’s prospects: a petrostati doubling down on oil and artillery in the middle of a technological revolution. The Kremlin says it’s waging a war of destiny; in reality, it’s missing the 21st century.
...Both Russia’s defenders and its enemies suggest that a successful campaign in Ukraine will somehow produce a stronger, reinvigorated Russia capable of posing an immediate threat to Europe and beyond. But what exactly would Moscow have “won”? An angry, revanchist neighbor; a more unified, hostile Europe; a ruined economy; a gutted army; reduced international influence; and a boss in Beijing. That is not victory but self-inflicted decline.
This is perhaps why the Kremlin seems so uninterested in ending the war. A compromise peace would not expose a defeat on the battlefield but rather something far worse: the absence of any larger strategy.... ” In sacrificing its global influence for the chance to spend the past year pulverizing the previously unheard-of city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas, Russia has proved not its resilience but its near irrelevance. Russia has not rediscovered its imperial destiny. It has discovered only that it can still destroy—and that destruction is just about all that its foreign policy has to offer."
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The one place Russia has effectively influenced is Europe...Putin appears to have engineered a strange geopolitical bargain: Moscow sacrifices its demographically scarce young men in the Donbas so that Europeans will finally buy air defenses. At home, Russia’s wartime economy looks like a parody of Soviet stagnation, exactly what Putin warned against in the early years of his presidency. Factories churn out shells and missiles even as the rest of the world invests in artificial intelligence, green technology, and microchips. The Kremlin has succeeded in building a fortress economy, but one that is fortified against the future more than against the enemy. This would be funny if it weren’t so tragic for Russia’s prospects: a petrostati doubling down on oil and artillery in the middle of a technological revolution. The Kremlin says it’s waging a war of destiny; in reality, it’s missing the 21st century.
...Both Russia’s defenders and its enemies suggest that a successful campaign in Ukraine will somehow produce a stronger, reinvigorated Russia capable of posing an immediate threat to Europe and beyond. But what exactly would Moscow have “won”? An angry, revanchist neighbor; a more unified, hostile Europe; a ruined economy; a gutted army; reduced international influence; and a boss in Beijing. That is not victory but self-inflicted decline.
This is perhaps why the Kremlin seems so uninterested in ending the war. A compromise peace would not expose a defeat on the battlefield but rather something far worse: the absence of any larger strategy.... ” In sacrificing its global influence for the chance to spend the past year pulverizing the previously unheard-of city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas, Russia has proved not its resilience but its near irrelevance. Russia has not rediscovered its imperial destiny. It has discovered only that it can still destroy—and that destruction is just about all that its foreign policy has to offer."
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