It's Been Over 2 Weeks Since Texas Lifted Restrictions; Where's the surge?

[Gondwanaland]

I was told by many doctors on teevee Including Fauci, and many news agencies that Texas was being very irresponsible by lifting its Covid restrictions and mask mandates, and that we would see a surge in cases because of their 'neanderthal thinking' (thanks, Biden) and behavior.

So...... Where is it?

IIRC restriction lifting started on the 2nd. It's now 24 days after that. Yet no surge to be seen. Indeed, Texas continues to have better numbers than Cali (whose governor declared texas 'Absolutely reckless').


Much like the doomsaying that Florida experienced last September when they lifted most of their own restrictions, it appears this doomsaying about Texas is little more than hot air. Florida was told they were going to cause an enormous spike and kill everyone's grandma, yet their numbers have remained at or below the level of California, which has been one of the most restrictive in its lockdowns/restrictions/mandates.

 

[Acadia]

Just getting ahead of the spin...blah, blah, blah variants blah, blah, blah.

 

[swing_voter]

It's incubating.

Just like eggs need time to hatch.

 

[Clownonthewing]

Despite having 12 million less people Texas had twice as many new Covid cases yesterday. I don’t know why you are using a lagging indicator like deaths to judge recent policy changes. Oh wait yes I do.

 

[Mongidig]

I thought the lifting of restrictions in Texas didn't go into effect until March 10th.

The numbers are still too high ahead of the incoming variants. It usually takes a couple weeks before you see a big difference. I think we will see an big uptick in cases within the next few days.

 

[Vern]

I was told by many doctors on teevee Including Fauci, and many news agencies that Texas was being very irresponsible by lifting its Covid restrictions and mask mandates, and that we would see a surge in cases because of their 'neanderthal thinking' (thanks, Biden) and behavior.

So...... Where is it?

IIRC restriction lifting started on the 2nd. It's now 24 days after that. Yet no surge to be seen. Indeed, Texas continues to have better numbers than Cali (whose governor declared texas 'Absolutely reckless').


Much like the doomsaying that Florida experienced last September when they lifted most of their own restrictions, it appears this doomsaying about Texas is little more than hot air. Florida was told they were going to cause an enormous spike and kill everyone's grandma, yet their numbers have remained at or below the level of California, which has been one of the most restrictive in its lockdowns/restrictions/mandates.

mmmm, it sure would be nice if you "sourced" your graph because when I go to the CDC data tracker I see a different story. I'm sure you got that convenient graph from a reputable site but you should check with the CDC to eliminate any honest mistakes

CDC COVID Data Tracker

From the CDC I see for the last 7 days Texas has had 83 new cases/100 k and California only 45/100k. I guess its good news for you that Texas has had 2.7 deaths/100 and California has had 3.3/100k for the last 7 days. And not for nothing, you really shouldn't be cheering anything Florida does. Just like Texas, North Dakota and south dakota, they werent hit with the virus first and had time to prepare for the pandemic and wasted it.

 

[Antiwar]

Epidemiologists and such are usually conservative, as in they err on the side of caution based on scientific principles and what's good for the collective; versus politically conservative politicians who have questionable principles and don't seem to have much concern for the collective.

 

[Visbek]

I was told by many doctors on teevee Including Fauci, and many news agencies that Texas was being very irresponsible by lifting its Covid restrictions and mask mandates, and that we would see a surge in cases because of their 'neanderthal thinking' (thanks, Biden) and behavior.

So...... Where is it?

sigh

We've seen this over and over. Confirmed cases significantly lag those types of changes. You can walk around for a week or more with COVID before you develop symptoms. Plus, it can take up to 10 days in some places just to get the tests back.

People don't change behavior instantaneously. A bar that has been closed, or drastically cut back, can't just open to 100% capacity overnight. They have to rehire people or hire and train new people; they need supplies. The Rangers announced they'd fully reopen, but the first game where that will be allowed is still 3 days away.

On the flip side is whether individuals adhered to restrictions in the first place. Rangers games weren't at 100% capacity, but many were surely meeting with friends, and presumably attending churches. There are numerous nations that clamped down early, got the virus under control, and opened quickly -- China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, and so on. Restrictions work, but people actually have to follow them. (This, by the way, is a likely reason why CA did so badly in the winter. Having restrictions doesn't help if people don't follow them.)

If you look at Texas' mobility data, not much has changed in the past few weeks. They didn't all suddenly surge back to work or visit people.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-03-23_US_Texas_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Another potential issue is vaccination rates. Texas is doing fairly well -- roughly 10 million doses administered so far. But it's also a race now, where we need to get close to or reach herd immunity before the variants really take hold. They should be doubling down and vaccinating faster, just for an extra month or two, rather than opening up.

Much like the doomsaying that Florida experienced last September when they lifted most of their own restrictions...their numbers have remained at or below the level of California...

Uh, hello? Case rates in Florida did start to rise in early October. Fatalities were about another month behind that.

We should also note that many of the states with the most numbers of cases are the least restrictive ones -- North and South Dakota; Tennessee; Arizona; Iowa; Oklahoma; Wisconsin; Arkansas.



Last but not least: When you take out factors like obesity rates, percentage of senior citizens, percentage of minorities and so forth, you can really see the effect that is specifically a result of policies. In those instances, we see that states with Republican governors, who were generally less restrictive, did worse after June 1st.

APJM: Associations Between Governor Political Affiliation and COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Testing in the U.S.

 

[Phys251]

I was told by many doctors on teevee Including Fauci, and many news agencies that Texas was being very irresponsible by lifting its Covid restrictions and mask mandates, and that we would see a surge in cases because of their 'neanderthal thinking' (thanks, Biden) and behavior.

So...... Where is it?

IIRC restriction lifting started on the 2nd. It's now 24 days after that. Yet no surge to be seen. Indeed, Texas continues to have better numbers than Cali (whose governor declared texas 'Absolutely reckless').


Much like the doomsaying that Florida experienced last September when they lifted most of their own restrictions, it appears this doomsaying about Texas is little more than hot air. Florida was told they were going to cause an enormous spike and kill everyone's grandma, yet their numbers have remained at or below the level of California, which has been one of the most restrictive in its lockdowns/restrictions/mandates.

We have 5% of the world's population but more than 20% of its COVID-19 deaths. The death rate has slowed since Biden was sworn in and the CDC got a new director.

Maybe the covidiots will refrain from getting vaccinated for awhile so that sane people can get the jab earlier. Would be the one decent thing they've ever done.

 

[Phys251]

I thought the lifting of restrictions in Texas didn't go into effect until March 10th.

The numbers are still too high ahead of the incoming variants. It usually takes a couple weeks before you see a big difference. I think we will see an big uptick in cases within the next few days.

It's the same people who spread disinformation about the lack of a spread in South Dakota right after the Sturgis superspreader. The surge came the next week.

Worse, those maskholes exported their disease to other states. They should have been quarantined until they got the virus out of their system.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

We have 5% of the world's population but more than 20% of its COVID-19 deaths. The death rate has slowed since Biden was sworn in and the CDC got a new director.

Maybe the covidiots will refrain from getting vaccinated for awhile so that sane people can get the jab earlier. Would be the one decent thing they've ever done.

[NOTE - Numbers in RED are worse than yesterday's, numbers in BLUE are unchanged, and numbers in GREEN are better.]​

COVID-19 is now killing Americans at 1.683 times the daily rate that the “1918 Flu” did.

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

COVID-19 is the THIRD largest cause of death in the US. At the present rate (the algorithms were adjusted on 01 MAR 21), the estimated rates for the “Low 365 Day” death count are 64.71% that of Cancer and is 60.00% that for Heart Disease, for the estimated “High 365 Day” death count, it is 71.52% that of Cancer and 66.32% that of Heart Disease.

The projected annual death toll from COVID-19 for 2021 has dropped by 30.93% from the total projected on 01 JAN 21.

The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 62,404, for the past 10 days it is 63,380, and for the past five days it is 58,466.

Yesterday, the US, with around 4.25% of the world’s population accounted for 12.82% of the world’s new cases. This is approximately 3.01 times its proportionate share which results in a grade of 33.19%. This is still an “F” (which is back to what it has been for months).

Of the 20 countries with the highest number of TOTAL cases, the US, with around 10.18% of the total population of the group, has around 24.75% of the total cases for the group. This is roughly 2.43 times its proportional share.

Of the 20 countries with the highest number of currently ACTIVE cases, the US, with around 10.57% of the total population of the group, has around 40.42% of the total cases for the group. This is roughly 3.83 times its proportional share.

Updated to the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.25% of the world’s population) has had approximately 24.38% of the world’s COVID-19 cases. That is a disparity of 5.73 :: 1 (which is a “Percentage Grade” of 17.45%). It also has 20.21% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths, which is a disparity of 4.75 :: 1 (which is a “Percentage Grade” of 21.05%). Each of those “Percentage Grades” is an “F”

 

[Gondwanaland]

We have 5% of the world's population but more than 20% of its COVID-19 deaths.

Yes, thank to pieces of garbage like Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, and Tom Wolf, and their policies of sending sick people into nursing homes, we have a very large covid death toll.

 

[Mongidig]

Yes, thank to pieces of garbage like Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, and Tom Wolf, and their policies of sending sick people into nursing homes, we have a very large covid death toll.

It's the sick people who didn't wear masks and socially distance that caused most of the deaths. Thanks to Trump.

Gretchen Whitmer is hot!

 

[Gondwanaland]

It's the sick people who didn't wear masks and socially distance that caused most of the deaths. Thanks to Trump.

Gretchen Whitmer is hot!

No, dear. It's the sick people who decided to send covid patients into facilities containing the most vulnerable group of people, that caused most of the deaths. That and the idiots of lockdown-state California who still can't grasp that lockdowns do nothing. Gretchen Whitmer is a murderous piece of crap who ought to be rotting in prison right now.

 

[reflechissez]

No, dear. It's the sick people who decided to send covid patients into facilities containing the most vulnerable group of people, that caused most of the deaths. That and the idiots of lockdown-state California who still can't grasp that lockdowns do nothing. Gretchen Whitmer is a murderous piece of crap who ought to be rotting in prison right now.

Where would you have sent them?

 

[BlueTex]

When Texas ended its mask mandate, the event cancellations started — and the losses are adding up

At least four conferences were canceled in Austin because of the lack of a statewide mask mandate. The cancellations have caused the Hilton Austin hotel to lose out on $350,000 of revenue, according to Austin Convention Enterprises.

www.texastribune.org

 

[CaughtInThe]

COVID-19 is the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

 

[snakestretcher]

No, dear. It's the sick people who decided to send covid patients into facilities containing the most vulnerable group of people, that caused most of the deaths. That and the idiots of lockdown-state California who still can't grasp that lockdowns do nothing. Gretchen Whitmer is a murderous piece of crap who ought to be rotting in prison right now.

Lockdowns do nothing? Why did South East Asian nations do so well with their lockdowns then? Lockdowns absolutely work-as long as people comply with them. It's the idiot libertarians and their constant whining about 'rights' and 'freedom' who are the danger-the morons who refuse to wear masks or keep social distances while infecting anyone they meet.

What’s the secret to Southeast Asia’s Covid success stories?

There is no secret.

www.lowyinstitute.org

What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19

With the exception of Thailand, the five countries of mainland Southeast Asia are some of the poorest in the Asia-Pacific region. According to the World Bank, Cambodia has a per capita GDP of around $1,600, while Myanmar’s is roughly $1,400. Laos and Vietnam fare only marginally better, each at...

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

How Some Asian Countries Beat Back COVID-19

Experience matters when confronting a novel infectious disease, DGHI policy expert says

globalhealth.duke.edu

 

[Vern]

I was told by many doctors on teevee Including Fauci, and many news agencies that Texas was being very irresponsible by lifting its Covid restrictions and mask mandates, and that we would see a surge in cases because of their 'neanderthal thinking' (thanks, Biden) and behavior.

Hey Gond, any luck providing a source for the graph? While we wait, there is more interesting data at the CDC covid tracker. Seems Texas has had 9516 cases /100k and 161 deaths /100k. California which got hit first has had 8993 and 144. And whatever you do, dont look at the data for ND or SD. These rural states literally had a 4-5 month "headstart" to prevent the spread of covid. Anyhoo, here's the link again

CDC COVID Data Tracker

 

[Phys251]

Yes, thank to pieces of garbage like Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, and Tom Wolf, and their policies of sending sick people into nursing homes, we have a very large covid death toll.

Your president got over half a million Americans killed. Mine is stemming the tide.

 

[Phys251]

Lockdowns do nothing? Why did South East Asian nations do so well with their lockdowns then? Lockdowns absolutely work-as long as people comply with them. It's the idiot libertarians and their constant whining about 'rights' and 'freedom' who are the danger-the morons who refuse to wear masks or keep social distances while infecting anyone they meet.

What’s the secret to Southeast Asia’s Covid success stories?

There is no secret.

www.lowyinstitute.org

What’s Behind Mainland Southeast Asia’s Surprising Success Against COVID-19

With the exception of Thailand, the five countries of mainland Southeast Asia are some of the poorest in the Asia-Pacific region. According to the World Bank, Cambodia has a per capita GDP of around $1,600, while Myanmar’s is roughly $1,400. Laos and Vietnam fare only marginally better, each at...

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

How Some Asian Countries Beat Back COVID-19

Experience matters when confronting a novel infectious disease, DGHI policy expert says

globalhealth.duke.edu

This right here.

COVID-19 has shown the world how dangerous pure individualism is. Half a million deaths and counting. Not to mention all the other problems that pure individualism causes.

 

[Cameron]

I hope Texas numbers don't increase. It will mean either that the vaccinations are working and the state is doing a good job disseminating them, or that people are acting responsibly even without mandates.

I don't think it can be seriously disputed that masks, social distancing, and other restrictions decrease cases and deaths, that's been proven all across the country and world many times over at this point.

 

[Tbird19482]

No, dear. It's the sick people who decided to send covid patients into facilities containing the most vulnerable group of people, that caused most of the deaths. That and the idiots of lockdown-state California who still can't grasp that lockdowns do nothing. Gretchen Whitmer is a murderous piece of crap who ought to be rotting in prison right now.

And back when this happened IF you remember Trump was putting out lies, and trying to discredit the CDC
so with all this conflicting info and this being a new virus nobody knew anything about it. taking that into consideration I have to ask how would Como or any other Governor know what to do?
There weren't any examples of what to do or what NOT to do like there are now.
and YES Como and them made Mistakes and they have admitted it , but again NO body had ever dealt with this before and nobody knew how to treat it or how to keep it from spreading
so like other people on here have asked in the same situation what would you have done where would you have put them
and one more thing if you read Como's EO you will find out it says they should be " recovering " and the Nursing homes had guidelines to go by,
and it was found out a lot of these cases came from the workers at these Nursing homes not from the people being returned
Have a nice day

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Sure did say it was the third leading cause of death in the US. Not only that, but it just missed making it to the #2 cause in 2020 (561,142 COVID vs 598,038 Cancer [mind you, if COVID-19 had started killing people on 01 JAN 2020 rather than 29 FEB 2020, that 561,142 would have been more like 650,000+ {and that would have pushed it well past the 635,260 annual death rate from Heart Disease <and into the #1 position>}]).

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​