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"It Worked"

Friedman said the Federal Reserve could have prevented the GD by printing more money. That doesn't sound very Libertarian or Laizzez Fair to me, does it to you?

Ya, he's a monetarist and called himself a liberal. He said allot of other things as well, you should read Free to Choose. Or watch his PBS series of the same name on youtube.
 
We know because Herbert Hoover tried the Laizzez Fair free market way first, which made the depression worse....and then he tried the Keynesian way just before he got ousted from office by starting work projects such as the Hoover Dam that put thousands to work and helped to build the economy in the Southwest....

Herbert Hoover - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

oooo a biased article written on Wikipedia.org... that must mean it's factually set in stone, and could not have occured any other way...

The US did not truly recover from the Great Depression until the military production ramp-up before the US even entered WWII... don't mistake the slow recovery process under Hoover or FDR as the sole cause of the recovery either...

Also, go back and look. Even FDR with his aid never put the US debt over 100% of GDP until WWII... his "aid" was not "Let's spend $800B" while we were already in huge debt...

Furthermore there was no economy in the Southwest... so he was not recovering anything by doing that... Much of his money went to insiders he knew through connections in NYC...

Contrary to this laissez-faire notion of Hoover, he actually tinkered quite hard with the economy... raising tariffs, raising income taxes on the rich, and raising corporate taxes... No wonder the economy didn't recover under Hoover... he was using the same ideas as Obama... ;)
 
oooo a biased article written on Wikipedia.org... that must mean it's factually set in stone, and could not have occured any other way...
Attack the messenger, thats always a good way to start a fallacious arguement. At least Wiki sources their articles, so if you have anything specific in the content you'd like rebut, then just say.

The US did not truly recover from the Great Depression until the military production ramp-up before the US even entered WWII... don't mistake the slow recovery process under Hoover or FDR as the sole cause of the recovery either...
Some say thats why FDR went to war.

Also, go back and look. Even FDR with his aid never put the US debt over 100% of GDP until WWII... his "aid" was not "Let's spend $800B" while we were already in huge debt...
Yes, Obama did inherit a $10.626 trillion debt, two wars and a Wall Street mess from his predessor and the $800 billion stimulus is about all that Obama has spent during his entire presidency and is lower than Bush, Clinton, and Reagan's spending combined. It was that stimulus spending that kept the economy from going into a full blown depression.

Furthermore there was no economy in the Southwest... so he was not recovering anything by doing that... Much of his money went to insiders he knew through connections in NYC...
You need to pay more attention. I said the Hoover dam helped to "build" the economy in the Southwest, which it did.

Contrary to this laissez-faire notion of Hoover, he actually tinkered quite hard with the economy... raising tariffs , raising income taxes on the rich, and raising corporate taxes... No wonder the economy didn't recover under Hoover... he was using the same ideas as Obama... ;)
Hoover was a free market Republican and just like Reagan, he lowered taxes on the rich before he raised them and the Smoot Hartley Act was a major contributor to the cause of the GD. That was Laizzez Fair that did that, not Keynesian and nothing you can say is going to revise that history.
 
Ya, he's a monetarist and called himself a liberal. He said allot of other things as well, you should read Free to Choose. Or watch his PBS series of the same name on youtube.
Thats funny, because I was going to post the PBS series on "Free to Choose" for you to watch. lol
 
Attack the messenger, thats always a good way to start a fallacious arguement. At least Wiki sources their articles, so if you have anything specific in the content you'd like rebut, then just say.

Some say thats why FDR went to war.

Yes, Obama did inherit a $10.626 trillion debt, two wars and a Wall Street mess from his predessor and the $800 billion stimulus is about all that Obama has spent during his entire presidency and is lower than Bush, Clinton, and Reagan's spending combined. It was that stimulus spending that kept the economy from going into a full blown depression.

You need to pay more attention. I said the Hoover dam helped to "build" the economy in the Southwest, which it did.

Hoover was a free market Republican and just like Reagan, he lowered taxes on the rich before he raised them and the Smoot Hartley Act was a major contributor to the cause of the GD. That was Laizzez Fair that did that, not Keynesian and nothing you can say is going to revise that history.

Im not attacking the messenger, I got nothing against you... I'm attacking a falty source used for your argument... Wikipedia is an amazing new style of technology, but it is not without its major faults... It tends to be a good quick reference source of encyclopedic knowledge (dates and facts), but the articles are not written by experts on the topics, theyre written by anyone who choses to contribute... and the analysis within articles is opinionated, and thus not valid...

To prove it, here's what the very article you posted says...
"Although Hoover is regularly criticized for his laissez-faire approach to the Depression,[78] in his memoirs, Hoover claims that he rejected Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon's suggested "leave-it-alone" approach,[79] and called many business leaders to Washington to urge them not to lay off workers or cut wages.[80]

Lee Ohanian, from UCLA takes a controversial stance, arguing that Hoover adopted pro-labor policies after the 1929 stock market crash that "accounted for close to two-thirds of the drop in the nation's gross domestic product over the two years that followed, causing what might otherwise have been a bad recession to slip into the Great Depression".[81] This argument is at odds with the more commonly accepted Keynesian view of the causes of the Depression, and has been challenged as revisionist by many economists including Brad DeLong of U.C. Berkeley.[82]"

So there you have it. The person writing the article espouses the Keynesian principles, exposes their bias, and thus is not an objective opinion on the topic. Furthermore, he even credits several things Hoover did to tinker with the economy... That's not laissez-faire... you know that... right?

Hoover made many attempts to tinker with the economy, because there was a major stock market crash midway through the first year of his term in office... I won't question what Hoover's overall philosophy regarding the economy is... but during his presidency, the simple fact of the matter is, he tried whatever he could to jumpstart the economy... He raised taxes, he raised tariffs, he created the mexican repatriation act to take mexican immigrants out of the workforce, he attempted the Hoover Moratorium, he created the NCC and then later replaced the NCC with the RFC, he inacted the Federal Home Loan Act, and alterned numerous domestic services, such as prisons, mail carrying, and proposed numerous other increased funding to things like the department of education...

To say he was Laissez-Faire is just ignorant to the facts of the matter, and just buys into the partial reasoning of the Keynesians who just label and blame him as a scapegoat...


You mentioned building the economy in the southwest, in a discussion regarding the recovery from the great depression... The great depression was not recovered from because a couple thousand people got jobs in the southwest working on the hoover dam... Millions were out of work, and it wasnt until the populations were able to get back to work where they were that the economy got going again...


Still closer to the point... the things Hoover did which held down the recovery process are very similar in nature to the things that Obama has been tinkering with to attempt to start this economy... From taxing the rich, taxing corporations, etc.


If the $800B is all that Obama spent, you'd have to explain why Bush's last and highest budget submittal was for $2.7T in spending, and yet Obama put forth budget proposals of $3.6T, $3.8T, $3.7T, and $3.8T without spending... could it be because whent he house changed his, his spending plans got limited? As it wouldve worked by his budget proposals, that's $4.1T advanced spending compared with Bush's highest budget, not even counting the 400B he put onto the last Bush budget to raise it to $3.1T... ARRA, Omnibus Appropriations Spending Bill, Cash For Clunkers, ACA, extending Cobra benefits, extending unemployment benefits, etc.


Getting back to the real point of this discussion, economics is not a real science... its a series of theories, none of which could ever achieve the status of proof... Keynesians want to claim a big win as if they cured the depression (which I already mentioned was also facilitated ultimately by war preparations)... Keynesians are doing everything to hype up Obama's Keynesian approach to recovery as being successful, too... but the numbers just don't show it... The best they can attempt to demonstrate is that the Keynesian approach slowed the fall... Since we have yet to fully recover, and once the government funds ran out, the programs they attemted to jumpstart are still stalled... Again we have a situation where we can't know which solution would've been better since Obama just used the 1 approach...

Can't wait until Romney wins this election, so we can get to see another...
 
LOL Almost every member country of the OECD has some sort of a distribution system and few would call them failures in any meaningful sense. It wasn't until the late 1980s and globalization (IMF, WTO, GATT, NAFTA,) that some of those countries noticed a difference in their quality of life taking a turn for the worse.

The key word is globalization.

It's why Obama will fail even if he wins in November. Should Romney win in November, he will also fail.

Why would anyone in their right mind pay blue collar workers in America $20 or $25 per hour when they can hire someone in China for far less than half of that?
 
The key word is globalization.

It's why Obama will fail even if he wins in November. Should Romney win in November, he will also fail.

Why would anyone in their right mind pay blue collar workers in America $20 or $25 per hour when they can hire someone in China for far less than half of that?


Oh maybe because you would lose a lot of customers for the goods you are trying to sell. It was Henry Ford, who said something to the effect that he wanted to pay his workers enough so they could each afford one of the cars they were building.
 
The US did not truly recover from the Great Depression until the military production ramp-up before the US even entered WWII... don't mistake the slow recovery process under Hoover or FDR as the sole cause of the recovery either...

Also, go back and look. Even FDR with his aid never put the US debt over 100% of GDP until WWII... his "aid" was not "Let's spend $800B" while we were already in huge debt...
So you are arguing that the way to full recovery out of the Great Depression....was by massive govt spending.....in this case the ramp-up for WWII.

And just to be clear....GDP had recovered before big defense spending had been put in place.....just so we have an understanding. So if you are talking "full recovery", you are talking about employment levels....which again were reduced by the defense contracting and enlistment.
 
So you are arguing that the way to full recovery out of the Great Depression....was by massive govt spending.....in this case the ramp-up for WWII.

And just to be clear....GDP had recovered before big defense spending had been put in place.....just so we have an understanding. So if you are talking "full recovery", you are talking about employment levels....which again were reduced by the defense contracting and enlistment.

We aren't talking about either of those things...

What we are talking about is the lack of any proof for which to say 1 way is always the right way to do anything in economics...

We are also discussing how abject a failure the Obama economy is... and how his attempt to jumpstart the economy only created a dependence on government assistance, without which it's falling apart...

So yes, you could sink us into bankruptcy trying to pretend money grows on trees, and that we never cut down any trees... and we could just spend our way into utopia... but the reality of the matter is... Obama's spending went to the wrong areas, and now we are in a massive debt hole, and have a staggering economy...

You can try to FDR your way around 1929 if you want... You can't Barrack Obama your way out of this current malaise...

Obama = Jimmy Carter... not FDR...
 
We aren't talking about either of those things... .
Uh....yes....YOU were......and I just DID.....so WE WERE (past tense of "are").

Of course YOU want to NOW avoid talking about the means to recovery from severe economic shocks/collapses that YOU engaged in.....since YOU would have to admit that it was massive govt spending that turned around an economy when private industry COULD NOT.

WE did NOT go "bankrupt" then, nor are WE now.

You really ought to AVOID all economic discussions in general if you can't discuss what you were discussing PREVIOUSLY.
 
Uh....yes....YOU were......and I just DID.....so WE WERE (past tense of "are").

Of course YOU want to NOW avoid talking about the means to recovery from severe economic shocks/collapses that YOU engaged in.....since YOU would have to admit that it was massive govt spending that turned around an economy when private industry COULD NOT.

WE did NOT go "bankrupt" then, nor are WE now.

You really ought to AVOID all economic discussions in general if you can't discuss what you were discussing PREVIOUSLY.

The economy didn't turn around until after the war. You can't really call the war economy a "recovered" economy when commodities were rationed, with full employment due to a draft, price controls, and a non-existent consumer market. Those types of scarcities and interventions would never be tolerated by Americans in peace-time...at least I hope not.
 
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The economy didn't turn around until after the war. You can't really call the war economy a "recovered" economy when commodities were rationed, with full employment due to a draft, price controls, and a non-existent consumer market. Those types of scarcities and interventions would never be tolerated by Americans in peace-time...at least I hope not.
I just said that employment levels did not recover until the effects of govt actions, however GDP had recovered before war spending kicked in. Rationing is outside of the discussion.

The point still is that it was govt spending that created the recovery, it was not due to private corporations. We were in a low demand viscous cycle where business could not hire because demand was low, demand was low from lack of income. It was govt spending that broke this cycle, and we paid down the debt when we had the following boom decades.
 
The president can say it worked on the basis of CBO reports and the reports of many independent economists who say that the stimulus shortened the recession, reduced unemployment, and boosted GDP growth. But, OTOH, one dude apparently had to declare bankruptcy, so....


That is humorous actually. Nothing Obama promised about the economy was true, but now he's claiming it would have been much worse if he had kept his campaign promises???
 
I just said that employment levels did not recover until the effects of govt actions, however GDP had recovered before war spending kicked in. Rationing is outside of the discussion.

GDP began to recover then crashed again in 36'. Rationing is not "outside the discussion" because it was an integral aspect to the planned economy. Guns/Butter wartime economies are straightforward and simple, but free people wont tolerate them during peacetime (or limited wars, Iraq, Vietnam etc.)

The point still is that it was govt spending that created the recovery, it was not due to private corporations. We were in a low demand viscous cycle where business could not hire because demand was low, demand was low from lack of income. It was govt spending that broke this cycle, and we paid down the debt when we had the following boom decades.

Government spending declined after the war, which is when the economy recovered.
 
GDP began to recover then crashed again in 36'.
OK...but that wasn't the point, the point was that it had recovered to pre crash level BEFORE major defense spending kicked in.



Rationing is not "outside the discussion" because it was an integral aspect to the planned economy. Guns/Butter wartime economies are straightforward and simple, but free people wont tolerate them during peacetime (or limited wars, Iraq, Vietnam etc.)
You can beat this "point", it has little bearing on the argument at hand.



Government spending declined after the war, which is when the economy recovered.
You can keep moving the goal posts, not defining the terms and massage stats to your heart's content....but it becomes rhetoric.
 
OK...but that wasn't the point, the point was that it had recovered to pre crash level BEFORE major defense spending kicked in.



You can beat this "point", it has little bearing on the argument at hand.



You can keep moving the goal posts, not defining the terms and massage stats to your heart's content....but it becomes rhetoric.

It's true GDP recovered as you said, but those growth rates were stagnant. It didn't come out of the hole until 38'-39'--and if I remember correctly, FDR instituted a peace time draft in 40' and then the war came. Government spending doesn't correlate with economic recovery from the Great Depression in either GDP growth rates or unemployment, mobilization for WWII does. When the war ended and spending decreased, the economy took off with the "peace dividend" of the late 40's and through the 50's. Sorry to burst your Keynesian bubble, but that's the truth.
 
GDP began to recover then crashed again in 36'. Rationing is not "outside the discussion" because it was an integral aspect to the planned economy. Guns/Butter wartime economies are straightforward and simple, but free people wont tolerate them during peacetime (or limited wars, Iraq, Vietnam etc.)



Government spending declined after the war, which is when the economy recovered.


and tax rates went way up - Gee, do you think the combination made a difference? So now government operational spending is down, although total spending is up due to the social costs of a poor economy, yet many for some reason can't see raising tax rates to begin reduction of the deficit. Governmental austerity at this time is a losing proposition, too many are making too little to help pay off the debt, a few are doing just great but not paying what some of us consider a "fair share" while they benefit disproportionately and we still have too many still holding onto a fantasy world belief that cutting government spending even more will somehow magically get us out of the money morass.

It will not happen unless a lot of people die.
 
It's true GDP recovered as you said, but those growth rates were stagnant. It didn't come out of the hole until 38'-39'--and if I remember correctly, FDR instituted a peace time draft in 40' and then the war came. Government spending doesn't correlate with economic recovery from the Great Depression in either GDP growth rates or unemployment, mobilization for WWII does. When the war ended and spending decreased, the economy took off with the "peace dividend" of the late 40's and through the 50's. Sorry to burst your Keynesian bubble, but that's the truth.
This is the same fallacy that I pointed out before, you can't say "govt spending did not cause the recovery" and then say "WWII spending caused the recovery". They are one in the same.

Further, there were 2 recessions after WWII, the first in '45 directly related to the ending of govt spending, a second in 48. The reason we had the booms following those years was from exports since so much of Europe was digging out of the ruins.
 
Uh....yes....YOU were......and I just DID.....so WE WERE (past tense of "are").

Of course YOU want to NOW avoid talking about the means to recovery from severe economic shocks/collapses that YOU engaged in.....since YOU would have to admit that it was massive govt spending that turned around an economy when private industry COULD NOT.

WE did NOT go "bankrupt" then, nor are WE now.

You really ought to AVOID all economic discussions in general if you can't discuss what you were discussing PREVIOUSLY.

Hey look... the queen of side topics just learned to use the CAPS LOCK button... Congrats... :applaud

That's not what was being discussed, though... and since you jumped into the discussion late, I'll give you a pass on it initially, but now, after insisting on pushing a side topic discussion... you're starting to look foolish yet again... I delved into a brief side topic for a short term, but clearly told you, I'm done debating the side topic, I'd rather discuss the real meat of this thread...

People were discussing measures of the economy, like GDP, and how they were rated, and at the point I came in, the question was which economists are good...

I advanced the statement that none of them are, since it's all a game of guessing, that could never be proven... In order for them to be good they would have to offer real proof that their theory works... Such is the case that any idiot with a means of communication can advance an economic theory, and no one's theory would be more or less right than it is...

Now, you think this is a discussion about whether throwing a massive amount of money will jumpstart an economy... Of course it will... until the money runs out, then it depends on what you spent the money on... You could spend less money, target it appropriately, and jumpstart and economy, that actually takes... That then would make spending the lesser amount of money to better targeted areas the better approach, would it not? See... there is no clear cut 1 size fits all answer... that's the very point...

In economics, there are hosts of related and unrelated variables, that can never be aligned at equilibrium, thus any models that attempt to start at equilibrium are by the very nature, flawed, and theoretical only... We don't know what the right approach to take would be for this or any recovery... We can guess, but that's all it makes out to be, is guessing... educated or not... Economics is not a true science, in terms of being able to test and find proof...

I and many other people would prefer not guessing with the people's money... That seems rather... what's the word... IRRESPONSIBLE!

Thus, regardless of what or how FDR got out of the depression... that time and this time are not equal starting points, so you could not apply the same approach... It was a 1 time occurance... which has yet to be proven irrefutable... and there were no other options tested at the time with which to compare... there was the 1 coarse taken... So, no more unrelated side-topic...


We aren't bankrupting ourselves? Seriously?

A growing $16T debt that is already well over 100% of our GDP, a persistent $1T spending deficit, a stagnating GDP, a pending baby boom retirement loss of revenue from taxation and increase on expenditures towards the entitlement programs... That there is the recipe of bankruptcy...

I know you're heavily biased in favor of the president... but clearly you aren't that ignorant as to the dire situation the economy and the us fiscal shape is in...

By so many indicators of the economy, like GDP, unemployment, workforce participation rate, fuel prices, etc. this is a terrible economy... by many more measures, partisan gridlock, no signed budget in 3 years, large spending deficit, massive cripling debt, etc. the US fiscal situation is horrific...

Regardless of what Obama did... it's not working... it may have worked for a little bit... but we can't afford to spend $800B here, $700B there, to constantly jumpstart the economy... because, that's not jumpstarting the economy, that's driving it, through state run industry...

It's time for a new plan...
 
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Thus, regardless of what or how FDR got out of the depression... that time and this time are not equal starting points, so you could not apply the same approach... It was a 1 time occurance... which has yet to be proven irrefutable... and there were no other options tested at the time with which to compare... there was the 1 coarse taken... So, no more unrelated side-topic...
LOL....you have nothing to base your claims of this "being a one time event", it wasn't and even Reagan used massive defense spending as a means to restart the US economy after 81. The problem was that he didn't work on getting the debt down afterwards, that fell to Clinton.

But don't respond to this, since you have divorced yourself from it for the second time.


We aren't bankrupting ourselves?
Uh, moving the goalpost, you said "bankrupt", and no, either you don't know what bankrupt means or you don't understand how our (or many other nations who have run debt levels greater than annual GDP) economy works.
 
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and tax rates went way up - Gee, do you think the combination made a difference? So now government operational spending is down, although total spending is up due to the social costs of a poor economy, yet many for some reason can't see raising tax rates to begin reduction of the deficit. Governmental austerity at this time is a losing proposition, too many are making too little to help pay off the debt, a few are doing just great but not paying what some of us consider a "fair share" while they benefit disproportionately and we still have too many still holding onto a fantasy world belief that cutting government spending even more will somehow magically get us out of the money morass.

It will not happen unless a lot of people die.

I'm pretty sure tax rates stayed flat until JFK, who lowered them and ushered in another economic boom. Besides, loopholes at that time were egregious. 90% rate on top earners didn't mean much because they never paid that much.

And since when do socialists care if "a lot of people die"? Wasn't it komrade Stalin who said 'you can't have an omelette without breaking some eggs'?
 
I'm pretty sure tax rates stayed flat until JFK, who lowered them and ushered in another economic boom. Besides, loopholes at that time were egregious. 90% rate on top earners didn't mean much because they never paid that much.

And since when do socialists care if "a lot of people die"? Wasn't it komrade Stalin who said 'you can't have an omelette without breaking some eggs'?


Generally speaking, you know, because I don't really know stuff like conservatives 'know' stuff, socialists were seen as enemies of the state during the days of the USSR so now trying to put an onus onto those who haven't advocated any such slaughter when I have read 'conservatives' in these threads saying "moochers should just die" weill - is just a bit off-putting - know what I mean.
 
I think its probable people would be more open to the idea of higher tax rates if they felt those asking for it could be trusted to spend the money wisely. Obama and the current crop of leftists in Congress are simply not the vessel by which tax hikes are going to happen. Not after whats happened the last 5+ years.

No tax hikes would pass but the Bush tax cuts will expire on their own, no vote needed. The Reps. in the House can pass the middle class cut or not but the cuts for top brackets are going along with captial gains and dividend cuts. The Republicans have been out smarted this time, but if they play their cards right they might get some of the defense budget back.
 
This is the same fallacy that I pointed out before, you can't say "govt spending did not cause the recovery" and then say "WWII spending caused the recovery". They are one in the same.

You are deliberately misquoting me. I said WWII mobilization spawned a recovery. When participating in a war for national survival, people will tolerate central planning methods like rationing, price controls, and the turning over of manufactures normally dedicated to the consumer market to producing the implements of war. Attributing government spending--while ignoring those other integral aspects of central planning's effect on the recovery--is deceptive. There is absolutely no evidence that throwing money at a depressed economy will cause it to recover.

Further, there were 2 recessions after WWII, the first in '45 directly related to the ending of govt spending, a second in 48. The reason we had the booms following those years was from exports since so much of Europe was digging out of the ruins.

Unemployment increased due to demobilization but stayed within the range of NAIRU's "full employment". In other words, 'frictional' unemployment was negated due to the draft and war mobilization, and returned to the natural range when demobilization occurred (the 3-5% range). Retooling from producing war goods to consumer goods caused some perturbation to GDP growth, but it was short lived and GDP takes off from there with a stable steady high rate of growth increase for a decade.
 
You are deliberately misquoting me. I said WWII mobilization spawned a recovery. When participating in a war for national survival, people will tolerate central planning methods like rationing, price controls, and the turning over of manufactures normally dedicated to the consumer market to producing the implements of war. Attributing government spending--while ignoring those other integral aspects of central planning's effect on the recovery--is deceptive. There is absolutely no evidence that throwing money at a depressed economy will cause it to recover.
It is empty rhetoric to say that there was some economic effect to cause recovery from "rationing" or "price controls"....who cares, it is not relevant to the recovery. Those dinky things are nothing in comparison to the huge amounts of fed spending and the massive mobilization ON TOP of the recovery programs already in place. All of that is govt spending, all of it contributed to the recovery....and the point that makes it so, is the 1937 recession.....when spending cuts and debt reduction pushed by conservatives caused a double dip.



Unemployment increased due to demobilization but stayed within the range of NAIRU's "full employment". In other words, 'frictional' unemployment was negated due to the draft and war mobilization, and returned to the natural range when demobilization occurred (the 3-5% range). Retooling from producing war goods to consumer goods caused some perturbation to GDP growth, but it was short lived and GDP takes off from there with a stable steady high rate of growth increase for a decade.
Yeah, 4 recessions from 1945 through 1958....I suppose could be viewed as "stable".


gdp 45 58.webp
 
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