It appears some Democrats are making the exact same mistake they made regarding Hillary/Trump. Which could cost our country Democracy.

[Ginger Ale]

Yeah, I don't think that's fair or realistic but, I can see some have gotten in this funk.

I don't see it this way.

 

[cpwill]

See post #24

That is a .... very thin reed, in the face of much opposing evidence.

 

[jnug]

This puzzles me, especially since Trump was caught on tape saying Kamala would be harder to beat. What makes you all think she'd be an easy one to knock off? Women would rise up like nobodies business if she ran, you do know that right?
The youth would be more likely to vote for her as well, they are more than wanting something more progressive and a female prez definitely would fit that bill. Curious, what is it?

See post 45 as to why Harris would be easier to beat.

As for what Trump says.....as to candidates.....he is not to be believed.

 

[jpevans]

The cult is the cult and won't change. They're horrible but will defend a rapist who ties a girl up on 5th Ave and shoots her.

It's Democrats (who currently help Republicans push their messages that trash a very successful Biden) and swing voters who will decide if we get keep our democracy.

Which are you?

I’m for our nominee, come on D’s get behind the mule.
p.s. Joe. Is the nominee by number of delicates. George Clooney come home with an editorial countering his other one.

 

[cpwill]

If Independents didn't vote for the Republicans in 2022, then they sure as hell aren't going to support Trump in 2024.

No, but, they are primed to vote against Biden.

Democrats won the Independent vote 44% - 42% in Biden's first midterm election....that NEVER happens. And Biden had a 37% approval rating during the 2022 midterms.

Based on what?

And the reason this happened is because Trump and the Republican Party are badly damaged after Jan 6 and the overturning of Roe vs Wade.

Which is receding in memory, especially as the public is faced with the reality of a President who can't, seemingly, err, "President".

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

That is a .... very thin reed, in the face of much opposing evidence.

Polls aren't "evidence"....just wishful thinking.

 

[cpwill]

Who?

Not sure what that question was in reference to, but, the data is out there.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

No, but, they are primed to vote against Biden.

Yet they didn't in 2022....despite a 37% approval rating for Biden. You fundamentally don't understand that Biden may be unpopular, but most Independents hate Trump and the Republican Party.

Based on what?

Based on the polls that you are in love with.

Which is receding in memory, especially as the public is faced with the reality of a President who can't, seemingly, err, "President".

More wishful thinking on your part....no evidence to back it up, as usual.

 

[cpwill]

Polls aren't "evidence"....just wishful thinking.

.....if your hypothesis depends on tossing out the best available most up to date evidence... that right there is sort of a major indicator you are engaging in some motivated reasoning.

 

[Sandy Shanks]

In 2016 the Democratic Party made a huge mistake. It nominated the least popular Democrat of the time who was burdened with tons of controversy from the Clinton administration and a woman to boot. The party nominated Hillary Clinton.

Her nomination was complicated by the fact that she was under investigation by the FBI during most of the campaign.

Her nomination was further complicated by the fact that young progressive Democrats were angered that Senator Sanders was not nominated, and they voted for Clinton's opponent, making him President.

Bernie Sanders Voters Helped Trump Win and Here's Proof​

The result was the Trump Presidency, and America has been sorry ever since. Trump is so bad, even his followers avoid him.

The Democrats are doing it all over again.

The Republicans have nominated the extremely unpopular and controversial 78-year old Trump again whose followers can't even write.

The Democrats nominated someone even older, 81-year old Joe Biden, the current President, and one whose time has come and gone. If elected, Biden will be 86 years old during his last year in office. He has already shown the decline of an 81-year old man.

Are Americans upset over the short-sightedness of the Democratic Party. You bet. Based on Biden's successful credentials, it is hard to accept that an 81-year old man was the only one they could name as a candidate for President of the United States.

The mistake by the Democratic Party could be catastrophic, not only for the U.S., but for the Western democracies as well -- another fours years of a revenge-filled Trump, now a convicted felon with no restraints caused by a re-election objective.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

Not sure what that question was in reference to, but, the data is out there.

Who takes his place? Who do you trade away incumbent advantage, essentially giving that advantage to Trump, that does better than Biden? Everyone wants that name. “Anyone” is no one.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

.....if your hypothesis depends on tossing out the best available most up to date evidence... that right there is sort of a major indicator you are engaging in some motivated reasoning.

Yeah, I'm tossing out your lame "evidence".

Past election results are much more relevant, such as what happened in 2018, 2020, and 2022. And based on that, I expect continued bad performances from Trump and the Republican Party in 2024.

 

[jnug]

In 2016 the Democratic Party made a huge mistake. It nominated the least popular Democrat of the time who was burdened with tons of controversy from the Clinton administration and a woman to boot. The party nominated Hillary Clinton.

Her nomination was complicated by the fact that she was under investigation by the FBI during most of the campaign.

Her nomination was further complicated by the fact that young progressive Democrats were angered that Senator Sanders was not nominated, and they voted for Clinton's opponent, making him President.

Bernie Sanders Voters Helped Trump Win and Here's Proof​

The result was the Trump Presidency, and America has been sorry ever since. Trump is so bad, even his followers avoid him.

The Democrats are doing it all over again.

The Republicans have nominated the extremely unpopular and controversial 78-year old Trump again whose followers can't even write.

The Democrats nominated someone even older, 81-year old Joe Biden, the current President, and one whose time has come and gone. If elected, Biden will be 86 years old during his last year in office. He has already shown the decline of an 81-year old man.

Are Americans upset over the short-sightedness of the Democratic Party. You bet. Based on Biden's successful credentials, it is hard to accept that an 81-year old man was the only one they could name as a candidate for President of the United States.

Candidate quality has been an issue for decades. It is why both parties have voted old men to be their nominees.

The mistake by the Democratic Party could be catastrophic, not only for the U.S., but for the Western democracies as well -- another fours years of a revenge-filled Trump, now a convicted felon with no restraints caused by a re-election objective.

 

[cpwill]

Yeah, I'm tossing out your lame "evidence".

Past election results are much more relevant, such as what happened in 2018, 2020, and 2022. And based on that, I expect continued bad performances from Trump and the Republican Party in 2024.

Good point. Based on that result, Trumps victory in 2016 meant he was guaranteed to win in 2020, right?

 

[cpwill]

Who takes his place? Who do you trade away incumbent advantage,

Incumbency is not currently an advantage with this electorate, nor does Biden have an advantage - quite the opposite.

essentially giving that advantage to Trump, that does better than Biden? Everyone wants that name. “Anyone” is no one.

"Anyone" outperforms Biden.

 

[jpevans]

The problems:
- Biden is the only one that can kill his candidacy. These continued efforts to push him out will only weaken the D party
- there is really nothing to suggest that Harris would be a stronger candidate nor that she would have coattails that would save the sniveling shaky pearl clutching congressmen and senators that are leading this charge force Biden to step down.see congressp

Th

 

[PoliSciPulse]

The cult is the cult and won't change. They're horrible but will defend a rapist who ties a girl up on 5th Ave and shoots her.

It's Democrats (who currently help Republicans push their messages that trash a very successful Biden) and swing voters who will decide if we get keep our democracy.

Which are you?

Here's what I'm seeing, and look -- I think we've disagreed about whether Biden should debate Trump on the issues because he is uniquely unqualified (the latter part I agree with). However, since you're asking an analysis question, rather than a projection question, there is a problem.

First of all, simply running on "I'm not Donald Trump" is not going to carry you across the finish line. It might get you the popular vote (I'm looking at you, Hillary), but it does not necessarily get you the win.

Second of all, simply running on "I -am- Donald Trump" is not necessarily going to carry you across the finish line, either. We saw that down in Arizona with the the Senate race.

The advice I have for Biden would be basically, "look, you've got 11% of people you need to get across all states, but more importantly in the swing states to win the Electoral College. Simply saying you're not Donald Trump is not going to get you the victory -- if it would, you would be leading in nearly all swing states. But you're not. While you have made some good decisions regarding infrastructure, student loans, etc. -- it's being weighed down by the Inflation Act, among other things. Right now, inflation has eased for the first time in a while. You need to harp on that. You don't need to demonstrate that Trump or your policies led to x, y, z; rather you have to show the American people that the economy is better than it has been. Now is the time to appeal to their pocket books. You also need to harp on how your Infrastructure Act is going to save lives by rebuilding weakened bridges, etc. The last piece of advice I have is it may be time to come up with a snappy slogan. Remember 'Osama Bid Laden is dead, and GM is alive?' You need something like that."

 

[Ginger Ale]

See post 45 as to why Harris would be easier to beat.

As for what Trump says.....as to candidates.....he is not to be believed.

So Trump is more like a bobble head nobody listens too but is fun for people to watch? Who really runs shit in the MAGA party?

 

[Sandy Shanks]

Candidate quality has been an issue for decades. It is why both parties have voted old men to be their nominees.

Very true.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

"Anyone" outperforms Biden.

Abstract concepts don’t get ballot access. Sooner or later, you have to have a name. Do you have one? Because if you think some anonymous yahoo from Texas will rip that name apart on a message board, imagine what people who make a seven figure living ripping names apart will do with it.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Good point. Based on that result, Trumps victory in 2016 meant he was guaranteed to win in 2020, right?

Just ignore what I said about Jan 6, Trump's 34 felony convictions, and the overturning of Roe vs Wade.

Oh wait...you already are.

You act like none of Trump's and the Republican Party's shitty deeds matter. Actually, they matter a lot.

 

[BirdinHand]

I'm talking about the lack of fight from Democrats which is EXACTLY like what happened when Trump won and ****ed the country

Calm down is my best advice.

It is JULY. Take a breath.

Everyone is finishing up their primary season in one state after another and local offices are just gearing up for the general.


Democrats don’t need to be acting hysterical - we just have to turn out and vote.

Lack of fight my ass. Women in states across this country have been getting ballot initiatives on state ballots collecting MILLIONS of signatures. Way more than they needed in every state.

You don’t have to be making noise to be busy or “fighting”. And you don’t have to act hysterical.

Breathe.

This election is going to be won by voter turnout in very specific areas. These people that will determine the election aren’t answering polls and they aren’t paying attention to politics on tv in July.

 

[Moon]

If Democrats actually thought Trump was the threat to our survival as a Democracy that they claim....

....then they wouldn't prioritize Biden getting to run again over beating him. Instead, they would replace Biden with someone who doesn't produce a potential 330 electoral vote Trump victory.

Instead, Democrats appear to be resigning themselves to Biden's defeat, or, certainly, to letting the old fella give it another try. If we are actually facing an existential threat, then sentiment about wanting to protect Biden should be far, far less important than the goal of actually not letting Trump win.

This all day.

 

[cpwill]

Abstract concepts don’t get ballot access. Sooner or later, you have to have a name. Do you have one?

Guessing you aren't clicking the link.

According to BlueLab Analytics, nearly every tested Democrat outperforms Biden. This includes Kamala Harris, who outperforms Biden, but underperforms the average. The more closely someone is tied to the current administration, the poorer they do. Mark Kelly, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer all outpace Biden by about 5 points in the battleground states.​

 

[Bok Tuklo]

Guessing you aren't clicking the link.

According to BlueLab Analytics, nearly every tested Democrat outperforms Biden. This includes Kamala Harris, who outperforms Biden, but underperforms the average. The more closely someone is tied to the current administration, the poorer they do. Mark Kelly, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer all outpace Biden by about 5 points in the battleground states.​

I clicked on the link. Do you have a name?