Is Trump's government guessing the inflation data?

[Airyaman]

If so, that might explain why inflation is not higher.



See this? That drop-off (`90% to 60%) on the left chart is where data has stopped being collected by BLS, and the right hand chart how much of the CPI is imputed (inferred).

Seems DOGE decimated the BLS, and it's causing potential issues with data collection.

US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say- Reuters poll

Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.

www.reuters.com

BENGALURU, July 25 (Reuters) - Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold
standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that
the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.

A decline in official survey participation rates and recent deep staff cuts at statistical agencies risk
undermining the reliability of data that policymakers, companies and even households rely on to make
decisions.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the principal agency for labor market and inflation data has, like other
government departments, been hit by firings, resignations, early retirement and hiring freezes as part of a
White House cost-cutting push.

The BLS is imputing more data than in the past. It used to be 10%, now it is up to 30%.

The Quality of CPI Data Continues to Deteriorate - Apollo Academy

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there...

www.apolloacademy.com

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200
different item categories, and there are several hundred field collectors active across 75 urban areas.

When data is not available, BLS staff typically develop estimates for approximately 10% of the cells in the
CPI calculation. However, the share of data in the CPI that is estimated has increased significantly in recent
months and is now above 30%, see chart below.

In other words, almost a third of the prices going into the CPI at the moment are guesses based on other
data collections in the CPI.

So is BLS actually imputing 30% of the data simply because of cuts made by DOGE, or are they purposely "cooking the books" to make inflation seem lower than it is?

 

[Loulit01]

If we did fewer Covid tests we'd have fewer cases.

 

[Hari Seldon]

If so, that might explain why inflation is not higher.



See this? That drop-off (`90% to 60%) on the left chart is where data has stopped being collected by BLS, and the right hand chart how much of the CPI is imputed (inferred).

Seems DOGE decimated the BLS, and it's causing potential issues with data collection.

US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say- Reuters poll

Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.

www.reuters.com

The BLS is imputing more data than in the past. It used to be 10%, now it is up to 30%.

The Quality of CPI Data Continues to Deteriorate - Apollo Academy

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there...

www.apolloacademy.com

So is BLS actually imputing 30% of the data simply because of cuts made by DOGE, or are they purposely "cooking the books" to make inflation seem lower than it is?

I don't believe anything coming out of this deceitful administration.

 

[Deuce]

Can't wait to see how pathetic right wingers get when they respond to this one

 

[aociswundumho]

Aside from the info in the OP:

1) The cpi assumes people switch to cheaper alternatives when prices rise. So if steak gets too expensive and you switch to chicken, the headline cpi might stop tracking steak and start tracking chicken, in order to make it look like inflation is lower.

2) The cpi adjusts prices based on improvements in quality. So if a laptop costs the same but is faster, the cpi might say the "real" price went down, again, to hide inflation.

3) For housing, they don't use actual home prices or mortgage payments. Instead the cpi uses some dumb shit called "owner's equivalent rent", which means, "How much would you have to pay to rent your own house?"

4) The government often emphasizes core cpi in order to intentionally exclude food and energy, again, in order to hide inflation.

Inflation is a tax, and it's the worst kind of tax, because it's hidden, regressive, and completely undemocratic. You didn't vote for it, and no individual politician can be blamed for it. It eats away at your savings, your wages, and your standard of living, while rewarding the people closest to the money printer.

Never forget that central banking is a form of central planning.

 

[Airyaman]

Inflation is a tax, and it's the worst kind of tax,

Who gets the tax revenue from inflation?

 

[Visbek]

So is BLS actually imputing 30% of the data simply because of cuts made by DOGE, or are they purposely "cooking the books" to make inflation seem lower than it is?

It's because of DOGE.

Manipulation may well happen in a few months, but I don't think it is happening yet.

Making guesses doesn't guarantee that the numbers will be lower than actual data.

It's too soon for tariffs to make a big impact on prices. We know from GDP data that companies imported huge amounts before the tariffs started, and they're still sitting on huge inventories. Plus, some companies are absorbing the higher costs, though that will not last long.

I'd also guess that if the Chumps were trying to manipulate the data, they're so incompetent and have generated so much ill will among federal workers, that someone would have ratted them out.

 

[aociswundumho]

Who gets the tax revenue from inflation?

The government does, of course, that's why they luv it. When inflation erodes the value of your money, it makes your dollars worth less and their debts easier to pay off. They also collect more in nominal taxes without raising rates - thanks to bracket creep. Another example is capital gains. Suppose your house/stock/crypto/artwork increases in nominal price $100,000 over ten years due entirely to inflation. You didn't gain anything, but if you sell, the government will tax you on the inflation. That's about 20k in taxes for nothing.

 

[Airyaman]

The government does, of course, that's why they luv it. When inflation erodes the value of your money, it makes your dollars worth less and their debts easier to pay off.

They must suck at it because our debts ain't getting paid.

They also collect more in nominal taxes without raising rates - thanks to bracket creep. Another example is capital gains. Suppose your house/stock/crypto/artwork increases in nominal price $100,000 over ten years due entirely to inflation. You didn't gain anything, but if you sell, the government will tax you on the inflation. That's about 20k in taxes for nothing.

No, I do get that government gets more as people make more, things cost more, because our government is percentages.

Everyone gets more, but at different rates. You make more, but things cost more, so the stores get more, etc.

That is why so many economists believe 2% or so inflation is about right.

 

[aociswundumho]

They must suck at it because our debts ain't getting paid.

Let's say I borrow $10,000 @ 10% simple interest for 10 years. I would pay $1000 per year in interest for ten years (10,000) plus the principal (10,000) for a total of $20,000. Let's also suppose inflation is 5% per year.

At the end of ten years, that $20,000 is only worth about 12k because of the 5% inflation. It erased about 40% of the loans value.

Now imagine the government as the borrower. Inflation quietly reduces the real burden of debt, making it much cheaper to pay off.

That is why so many economists believe 2% or so inflation is about right.

No, the central bankers printing the money say that. But even 2% inflation cuts your purchasing power in half every 35 years. 2% inflation provides zero benefit to us.

 

[Airyaman]

Let's say I borrow $10,000 @ 10% simple interest for 10 years. I would pay $1000 per year in interest for ten years (10,000) plus the principal (10,000) for a total of $20,000. Let's also suppose inflation is 5% per year.

At the end of ten years, that $20,000 is only worth about 12k because of the 5% inflation. It erased about 40% of the loans value.

Now imagine the government as the borrower. Inflation quietly reduces the real burden of debt, making it much cheaper to pay off.



No, the central bankers printing the money say that. But even 2% inflation cuts your purchasing power in half every 35 years. 2% inflation provides zero benefit to us.

If inflation was zeroed out everything else would be. You'd get no more pay raises except maybe for merit.

But that is not the way the world works.

 

[dmpi]

Did the guy who actually knew the process and algorithm get laid off by DOGE? Did they wipe his computer too? Seriously.. "89 of 100 top policy experts" must be Democrats or Idiots!

 

[Airyaman]

Did the guy who actually knew the process and algorithm get laid off by DOGE? Did they wipe his computer too? Seriously.. "89 of 100 top policy experts" must be Democrats or Idiots!

You should offer to help them.

 

[Luce]

If so, that might explain why inflation is not higher.



See this? That drop-off (`90% to 60%) on the left chart is where data has stopped being collected by BLS, and the right hand chart how much of the CPI is imputed (inferred).

Seems DOGE decimated the BLS, and it's causing potential issues with data collection.

US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say- Reuters poll

Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.

www.reuters.com

The BLS is imputing more data than in the past. It used to be 10%, now it is up to 30%.

The Quality of CPI Data Continues to Deteriorate - Apollo Academy

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there...

www.apolloacademy.com

So is BLS actually imputing 30% of the data simply because of cuts made by DOGE, or are they purposely "cooking the books" to make inflation seem lower than it is?

I am shocked. SHOCKED!

 

[Pyrite]

If so, that might explain why inflation is not higher.



See this? That drop-off (`90% to 60%) on the left chart is where data has stopped being collected by BLS, and the right hand chart how much of the CPI is imputed (inferred).

Seems DOGE decimated the BLS, and it's causing potential issues with data collection.

US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say- Reuters poll

Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.

www.reuters.com

The BLS is imputing more data than in the past. It used to be 10%, now it is up to 30%.

The Quality of CPI Data Continues to Deteriorate - Apollo Academy

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there...

www.apolloacademy.com

So is BLS actually imputing 30% of the data simply because of cuts made by DOGE, or are they purposely "cooking the books" to make inflation seem lower than it is?

US Labor Department reducing CPI collection sample amid hiring freeze

The U.S. Labor Department's economic statistics arm said on Wednesday it was reducing the Consumer Price Index collection sample in areas across the country due to resource constraints, but the move should have "minimal impact" on the overall CPI data.

www.reuters.com

The U.S. Labor Department's economic statistics arm said on Wednesday it was reducing the Consumer Price Index collection sample in areas across the country due to resource constraints, but the move should have "minimal impact" on the overall CPI data.

In a statement posted on its website, opens new tab, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the sample reduction and collection suspension could, however, increase the volatility of sub-national or item-specific indexes.

"BLS makes reductions when current resources can no longer support the collection effort," the agency said. "BLS will continue to evaluate survey operations."

The agency, which also compiles the closely watched employment report, has been impacted by a hiring freeze imposed by President Donald Trumpas part of an unprecedented campaign to drastically reduce the size of government through mass layoffs and spending cuts.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on Wednesday that the BLS beginning in April reduced the number of businesses at which it checks prices for the benchmark CPI report, citing the hiring freeze that Trump imposed on January 20, his first day back in office....

CPI is among the most closely watched economic datasets published by the U.S. government, relied upon by economists, investors and policymakers for near-real-time estimates of the state of inflation. It provides a monthly snapshot of changes both to prices overall and among hundreds of separate products and services, ranging from eggs to eyeglasses and airline tickets to automobiles.

Indeed, some private economists worry the collection staff cutbacks are already hurting the quality of the data produced in the report. Concerns were raised by outside economists after the Trump administration disbanded BLS and Commerce Department advisory boards that had given the agencies advice on economic data collection and analysis....

 

[roberthughey]

If so, that might explain why inflation is not higher.



See this? That drop-off (`90% to 60%) on the left chart is where data has stopped being collected by BLS, and the right hand chart how much of the CPI is imputed (inferred).

Seems DOGE decimated the BLS, and it's causing potential issues with data collection.

US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say- Reuters poll

Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.

www.reuters.com

The BLS is imputing more data than in the past. It used to be 10%, now it is up to 30%.

The Quality of CPI Data Continues to Deteriorate - Apollo Academy

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there...

www.apolloacademy.com

So is BLS actually imputing 30% of the data simply because of cuts made by DOGE, or are they purposely "cooking the books" to make inflation seem lower than it is?

No one is manipulating the data.

 

[Pyrite]

No one is manipulating the data.

We don't know whether or not a trump administration official is "manipulating the date". That you want to believe no one in the trump administration is manipulating data is your right, but it sure as heck isn't fact.

After all

...Indeed, some private economists worry the collection staff cutbacks are already hurting the quality of the data produced in the report. Concerns were raised by outside economists after the Trump administration disbanded BLS and Commerce Department advisory boards that had given the agencies advice on economic data collection and analysis....

 

[Airyaman]

No one is manipulating the data.

Not even the Deep State(tm)?

 

[Pyrite]

No one is manipulating the data.

Not even the Deep State(tm)?

LOL....good catch.

 

[roberthughey]

Not even the Deep State(tm)?

They must being lying under Biden too.

Right?

 

[Pyrite]

They must being lying under Biden too.

Right?

How do you know Deep State isn't still active?

 

[roberthughey]

We don't know whether or not a trump administration official is "manipulating the date". That you want to believe no one in the trump administration is manipulating data is your right, but it sure as heck isn't fact.

After all

...Indeed, some private economists worry the collection staff cutbacks are already hurting the quality of the data produced in the report. Concerns were raised by outside economists after the Trump administration disbanded BLS and Commerce Department advisory boards that had given the agencies advice on economic data collection and analysis....

They cited this person. He trusts the data being released.

These comments were before made the recent significate trade deals were announced in a recent WSJ editorial op.

-----------------

Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, told the editorial board that the data shows Trump's tariffs "are beginning to bite."

"Still, the question is whether all that will hold—and, if it doesn’t, how long the world’s largest economy can keep powering ahead," the editorial board wrote.

Trump's 'chaotic' tariff policies are 'beginning to bite': editorial

President Donald Trump's tariff policies are starting to show up in monthly inflation data, and that could be bad news for his economic policies, according to a new editorial. The Labor Department's latest jobs report showed that hiring slowed in industries that rely on immigrant labor...

www.rawstory.com

 

[Pyrite]

They cited this person. He trusts the data being released.

These comments were before made the recent significate trade deals were announced in a recent WSJ editorial op.

-----------------

Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, told the editorial board that the data shows Trump's tariffs "are beginning to bite."

"Still, the question is whether all that will hold—and, if it doesn’t, how long the world’s largest economy can keep powering ahead," the editorial board wrote.

Trump's 'chaotic' tariff policies are 'beginning to bite': editorial

President Donald Trump's tariff policies are starting to show up in monthly inflation data, and that could be bad news for his economic policies, according to a new editorial. The Labor Department's latest jobs report showed that hiring slowed in industries that rely on immigrant labor...

www.rawstory.com

So, one person trusts the current BLS data. That's nice. Other economists aren't so sanguine, as the reuters excerpt points out.

Good for the WSJ editorial board - which is a group with whom I rarely agree - for having the common sense to realize in the near future, the data can be compromised by trump's personnel cuts and his dissolution of the advisory boards.

 

[Xilnik]

Aside from the info in the OP:

1) The cpi assumes people switch to cheaper alternatives when prices rise. So if steak gets too expensive and you switch to chicken, the headline cpi might stop tracking steak and start tracking chicken, in order to make it look like inflation is lower.

2) The cpi adjusts prices based on improvements in quality. So if a laptop costs the same but is faster, the cpi might say the "real" price went down, again, to hide inflation.

3) For housing, they don't use actual home prices or mortgage payments. Instead the cpi uses some dumb shit called "owner's equivalent rent", which means, "How much would you have to pay to rent your own house?"

4) The government often emphasizes core cpi in order to intentionally exclude food and energy, again, in order to hide inflation.

Inflation is a tax, and it's the worst kind of tax, because it's hidden, regressive, and completely undemocratic. You didn't vote for it,

and no individual politician can be blamed for it.

Prior to Trump, I would have agreed with this. Inflation is usually caused by external factors. However, when one leader disrupts the entire global economy and turns it on its head, it's difficult to argue that he wasn't the primary cause should inflation occur as a result. So far, we seem to be treading water and doing better than expected, so maybe the U.S. economy was more robust than people realized. Or maybe this is just the calm before the storm. Economic experts say the latter, but we won't know until we get into late summer or early fall whether those forecasts ring true.

It eats away at your savings, your wages, and your standard of living, while rewarding the people closest to the money printer.

Never forget that central banking is a form of central planning.

 

[roberthughey]

So, one person trusts the current BLS data. That's nice. Other economists aren't so sanguine, as the reuters excerpt points out.

Good for the WSJ editorial board - which is a group with whom I rarely agree - for having the common sense to realize in the near future, the data can be compromised by trump's personnel cuts and his dissolution of the advisory boards.

"Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.." -

Another one of those signed letters.