The fact remains Trump won in 2016 because of his support in rural states with small populations. The southern rural states are Trump country.
There is another factor.
Trump is proving himself to be dysfunctional, foolish, and incompetent. He is so embarrassing his own followers avoid him. By any measure, Harris should be winning this election easily. She is not, and there is a reason for that.
“Great presidents?” Trump said. “Lincoln was probably a great president, although I’ve always said, why wasn’t that settled? You know, I’m a guy that—it doesn’t make sense we had a Civil War…. You’d almost say, like, why wasn’t that [settled]? As an example, Ukraine would have never happened, and Russia, if I were president. Israel would have never happened; October 7 would have never happened, as you know.”
This was Trump's reply to a ten-year old.
A voter named Ramiro González raised concerns about Trump’s inaction on Jan. 6. Trump responded, “Some of those people went down to the Capitol peacefully and patriotically. Nothing done wrong at all. Nothing done wrong. Action was taken. Strong action.
Ashli Babbitt was killed,” he said, referring to one individual who was killed after entering the Capitol.
“Nobody was killed. There were no guns down there. We didn’t have guns. The others had guns, but we didn’t have guns. … But that was a day of love.”
On Jan. 6, 2021, within thirty-six hours six people died: one was shot by Capitol Police, another died of a drug overdose, three died of natural causes, and a police officer died after being assaulted by rioters. Many people were injured, including 174 police officers.
Asked if there had been phone calls between he an Putin after he left office, Trump said,
“I don’t comment on that, But I will tell you that if I did, it’s a smart thing. If I’m friendly with people, if I can have a relationship with people, that’s a good thing and not a bad thing in terms of a country.”
“They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there,” Trump.
"Former President Donald J. Trump declared himself the “father of I.V.F.” at a town-hall event Tuesday focused on women’s issues," Times.
There is much more. This is just in the last ten days.
“The polls — public and private — are closer in this election than any I have ever seen,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a former aide to Barack Obama. “Everything is within the margin of error.
So, why is it a dysfunctional Republican candidate for President isn't losing handily?
Because Harris is a black woman.
In 2016, a highly experienced woman -- First Lady for eight years, New York Senator, secretary of state -- ran against the incompetent, inexperienced Trump. Hillary Clinton lost, too.