There are several indicators that tell this could be another 2016.
1) Enthusiasm factor. Trump's crowd are huge, and enthusiastic! Biden/Harris crowd are practically non-existent. Of course, their supporters point to Covid 19 as an excuse.
2) Majority of Americans say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago.
Why would they want to risk what they have now and gamble on Biden - who was VP 4 years ago?
3) 51% of Americans went along with Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court - despite all the negative and attacks from the Dems and left-leaning media, and the polls that say 62% Americans would want to have the next president make the appointment - still, 51% ended up supporting Trump's appointment! . They want Barrett confirmed!
4) Trump's secret supporters. They exist. They're quiet about it for their own reasons.
5) Though polls indicate a gloomy outlook for Trump - voters' registrations tell a different story!
Do remember even 2016 was a fluke, based on several of the above factors; there's no guarantee it will happen again. Trump could scrape through again but it's with an even bigger loss in the electoral college and likely and even more marginal win in a few key states.
1. Yes he has the enthusiasm factor but so does the other side as compared to Clinton's run. Admittedly they are drawn not by their 'love' of the ho-hum Biden/Harris ticket but by an urgent desire to remove Trump. He asked voters four years ago what have you got to lose? Now they know: environmental protection, leadership, reproductive and labor rights and even the right to vote. Cat's out of the bag this time: he is not an unknown quantity. When you know your basic human rights are up in the air every four years you're motivated to vote. Across the country states are smashing their early voting records, turnout is way up - when that happens it is usually not good for the incumbent because high turnout means votes for change.
2. Seems to depend which poll you ask. With mass unemployment amid a deadly pandemic it's hard to imagine why people feel 'better off'. trump supporters are likely to mistake
feeling better off for being so, because they see minorities and libs getting 'pwned' but the rest of the population is not as easily fooled. As with this massive turnout of new or infrequent voters, the pollsters haven't really reached enough people to find out, because they're used to asking known quantities such as 'likely' voters.
3. How exciting. Again though depends which poll. Over 50% were also saying they want the confirmation to wait till after the election. As with overall popularity an aggregate poll on the issue would be more accurate.
4. The secret supporters remain a myth. There were enough embarrassed swing voters last time perhaps but all indicators show that swing voters and infrequent voters are leaving him in droves. Just because they voted red once, doesn;t mean they're lifetime converts. 2018 showed us that.
5. Yes GOP registration is up and that's some silver lining for Trump: however it's mostly in 'Trump Country' anyway, likely not enough to replace the swing voters and not necessarily enough to make a dent in key battlegrounds. Whether he gets the EC by hook or by crook, Trump will lose the popular vote by at least the same margin as he did in 2016. In fact I predict he will not gain a single net voter and therefore won't get past 63 million again. Biden could well pull in up to ten million more.
So yeah, it's not all over for Trump. he does have enough support in enough places to win again much the way he did last time. But if you're hoping for a definitive victory over the hearts and minds of most Americans you'll be in for a similar disappointment to last time as well. Trump remains less popular than his opponents and any potential win will remain a lucky flaw in the electoral system that allows the more popular candidate to lose.
