In 2016 Lindsey Graham said that if the Republicans nominated Trump

[Guno]

It would be the death of the party, and that the party would deserve it.

Since then, the GOP lost control of the House, and the only Republican to win a Congressional district on the southern border campaigned against Trump’s border wall. Seven governorships have flipped from Republican to Democrat, including in Kentucky, where Trump campaigned for the Republican saying that election would be a referendum on his own popularity and the impeachment.

Trump himself has an approval rating below 40%, and below 50% in 16 of the 30 states he carried in 2016. Two-thirds of voters in key swing states (Mid-West/Rust Belt) say he doesn’t deserve a second term, and over half the country favored impeaching him and removing him from office before public hearings even began.

Young voters are going increasingly to the left, and many prominent Republicans have left the party.

If Trump is still in office on election day, not only will he suffer an overwhelming defeat, but low Republican turnout, high anti-Trump turnout, and down-ballot voting could cost the Republicans several Senate seats, possibly (but not likely) enough to flip the Senate blue.

Republicans aren’t just losing, they’re dying. And the saddest part is that they are so isolated from reality in their fake news bubbles that they actually think they’re winning.

 

[Excast]

They may win in 2020. They may lose. But eventually the costs of this era are going to come back to haunt the Republican party. They can only win on the backs of white men and their apathetic spouses for so long. Every day more of their base dies off and is replaced by younger, more progressive voters. And the utterly shameless, cowardly, party over country hypocrisy we have seen over the last several years will come back to bite them in the backside.

And at that moment the true test will come. They will feign contrition. They will pretend that they have had a revelation and will make amends. The media will push the old "both sides" narrative and act as if bipartisan compromise is the answer. And that will be the moment that the last shovelful of dirt needs to be thrown on the grave of the Republican party. The rest of us can't be told to simply forget what these people have done.

 

[ttwtt78640]

It would be the death of the party, and that the party would deserve it.

Since then, the GOP lost control of the House, and the only Republican to win a Congressional district on the southern border campaigned against Trump’s border wall. Seven governorships have flipped from Republican to Democrat, including in Kentucky, where Trump campaigned for the Republican saying that election would be a referendum on his own popularity and the impeachment.

Trump himself has an approval rating below 40%, and below 50% in 16 of the 30 states he carried in 2016. Two-thirds of voters in key swing states (Mid-West/Rust Belt) say he doesn’t deserve a second term, and over half the country favored impeaching him and removing him from office before public hearings even began.

Young voters are going increasingly to the left, and many prominent Republicans have left the party.

If Trump is still in office on election day, not only will he suffer an overwhelming defeat, but low Republican turnout, high anti-Trump turnout, and down-ballot voting could cost the Republicans several Senate seats, possibly (but not likely) enough to flip the Senate blue.

Republicans aren’t just losing, they’re dying. And the saddest part is that they are so isolated from reality in their fake news bubbles that they actually think they’re winning.

Hmm... if Trump is the best thing that's happened for demorats (in decades?) then why the need to try to impeach him?

 

[OrphanSlug]

We've seen thread after thread talking about the demise of the Republican Party for whatever reason be it about Trump, or demographics, some recent election results against prior results, what have you.

In the same regard we saw plenty of threads talking about the demise of the Democrats for whatever reason be it about Obama facing 2 of his 8 years dealing with a split Congress, or the last 4 of his years facing an all Republican Congress, issues more common in urban locations, what have you,.

The one common thread... arrogant certainty, no different than this OP.

The awful and continuous irony here is both the Republican Party and Democratic Party have solid control over this nation's political system from the Federal level down to just about every local level in every single state in the union.

I've posted this before...



... and even though the graphic only goes up through 2018 the numbers today are not all that far removed. Check for yourself here...

Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends

Independents are still the majority and tend to go back and forth between our two party dominant system, to the point that all these threads on Republicans or Democrats who "actually think they are winning" ironically... are winning.

It is nothing more than a political pendulum based on the actions of who they elected last time around. Sure, solid "liberals" are not going to flip all that often going against the party more aligned to them and the same is largely true for solid "conservatives" but overall these predictions end up dead wrong.

So much so that Obama ended up facing the majority of his time facing opposition from Congress even though he enjoyed largely solid election results. Also so much so that Trump ended up winning against Hillary who everyone from CNN to ABC was sure of themselves would not happen. And here we are with Trump and facing his first split Congress despite how he got elected taking the EC without the popular vote.

My point it, that arrogant certainty of what will happen to a party or a politician. There are way too many times these threads are wrong, with "approval" ratings not playing out exactly as predicted when Independents have to pick between two sides of the same hypocritical, aristocratic, corrupt to the hills and back, and overall arrogant certainty coin.

 

[Drawdown]

They may win in 2020. They may lose. But eventually the costs of this era are going to come back to haunt the Republican party. They can only win on the backs of white men and their apathetic spouses for so long. Every day more of their base dies off and is replaced by younger, more progressive voters. And the utterly shameless, cowardly, party over country hypocrisy we have seen over the last several years will come back to bite them in the backside.

And at that moment the true test will come. They will feign contrition. They will pretend that they have had a revelation and will make amends. The media will push the old "both sides" narrative and act as if bipartisan compromise is the answer. And that will be the moment that the last shovelful of dirt needs to be thrown on the grave of the Republican party. The rest of us can't be told to simply forget what these people have done.

Yes the GOP is dead. I have heard that for a generation. In case you have not noticed, the DNC going to the Weird Corner of the left where "progressive" solutions always benefit Wall Street is not helping them. Sometimes "NO" is all voters need or expect from the GOP.

 

[haymarket]

Hmm... if Trump is the best thing that's happened for demorats (in decades?) then why the need to try to impeach him?

Cynically one can say that the evil specter of Trump has more than served his purpose in inspiring Democratic voters to take back the nation.

 

[ocean515]

They may win in 2020. They may lose. But eventually the costs of this era are going to come back to haunt the Republican party. They can only win on the backs of white men and their apathetic spouses for so long. Every day more of their base dies off and is replaced by younger, more progressive voters. And the utterly shameless, cowardly, party over country hypocrisy we have seen over the last several years will come back to bite them in the backside.

And at that moment the true test will come. They will feign contrition. They will pretend that they have had a revelation and will make amends. The media will push the old "both sides" narrative and act as if bipartisan compromise is the answer. And that will be the moment that the last shovelful of dirt needs to be thrown on the grave of the Republican party. The rest of us can't be told to simply forget what these people have done.

Like the disastrous era Progressives presided over in the early 20th century, this current era of Progressive totalitarianism and massive government intrusion into the lives of citizens will pass.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Cynically one can say that the evil specter of Trump has more than served his purpose in inspiring Democratic voters to take back the nation.

It may well backfire if simply being in the era of not Trump causes the demorats to see this as the perfect time to go hard left. There seems to be growing concern among moderate (sane?) demorats that this is happening.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Hmm... if Trump is the best thing that's happened for demorats (in decades?) then why the need to try to impeach him?

To say to the nation and other politicians that the rule of law means something. The house has a duty to investigate and if they can prove abuses, they must impeach.

And don't think for a minute that the house isn't doing anything else. They have passed now over 250 bills that all lie dead in Moscow Mitch's office.

You might want to use spell check.

 

[haymarket]

It may well backfire if simply being in the era of not Trump causes the demorats to see this as the perfect time to go hard left. There seems to be growing concern among moderate (sane?) demorats that this is happening.

I do not see a hard left turn being successful. All the polls I see say that there is a realization among Dem voters that True must be beaten. I think this is why Biden contuse to do so well in polling.

 

[ttwtt78640]

I do not see a hard left turn being successful. All the polls I see say that there is a realization among Dem voters that True must be beaten. I think this is why Biden contuse to do so well in polling.

Biden is currently leading, but polls no better than about 30% (except in NC). As the fieid of DNC POTUS hopefuls narrows, I expect the Warren/Sanders vote to exceed the Biden/Buttigieg vote. Biden may well be more electable among indiependents, but is not as likely as Warren to excite the demorat base. IMHO, the biggest factor is how long Buttigieg and Sanders hang in there.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls

 

[j brown's body]

This is why the GOP passes so many voting restrictions and allow for unlimited dark money in campaigns. They also have districting and the electoral college, and the senate, which all favor rural voters over urban ones on their side.

 

[Carleen]

Yes the GOP is dead. I have heard that for a generation. In case you have not noticed, the DNC going to the Weird Corner of the left where "progressive" solutions always benefit Wall Street is not helping them. Sometimes "NO" is all voters need or expect from the GOP.

Our two party system has been swinging back and forth since George Washington and it will continue. That’s the way it is. I see nothing that will change it.

 

[Drawdown]

Our two party system has been swinging back and forth since George Washington and it will continue. That’s the way it is. I see nothing that will change it.

and i will keep voting third party and independents rather than surrender to the corporate oligarch-managed duopoly. I see nothing that will change that yet though the libertarians siphoning enough votes to cost the GOP wins and the Greens siphoning enough votes to cost democrats wins are both progress.

 

[haymarket]

Biden is currently leading, but polls no better than about 30% (except in NC). As the fieid of DNC POTUS hopefuls narrows, I expect the Warren/Sanders vote to exceed the Biden/Buttigieg vote. Biden may well be more electable among indiependents, but is not as likely as Warren to excite the demorat base. IMHO, the biggest factor is how long Buttigieg and Sanders hang in there.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls

That very well could happen. I cannot help but add the Warren plus Sanders numbers to see what the liberal wing constitutes. However, Bernie might stay in until the bitter end like he did last time and prevent those two from joining together. Only time will tell.

I expect Biden to do very well on Super Tuesday no matter what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire and give him a whole lot more delegates.

 

[ttwtt78640]

That very well could happen. I cannot help but add the Warren plus Sanders numbers to see what the liberal wing constitutes. However, Bernie might stay in until the bitter end like he did last time and prevent those two from joining together. Only time will tell.

I expect Biden to do very well on Super Tuesday no matter what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire and give him a whole lot more delegates.

We will just have to wait and see - it appears possible that Biden/Buttigieg might be getting more DNC primary challengers while Warren/Sanders are losing them. BTW, I agree that Sanders may stick it out, reach a deal to become Warren's VP or even run (out of frustration?) as an independent - he is an old man and fully realizes that this is his last shot.

 

[haymarket]

We will just have to wait and see - it appears possible that Biden/Buttigieg might be getting more DNC primary challengers while Warren/Sanders are losing them. BTW, I agree that Sanders may stick it out, reach a deal to become Warren's VP or even run (out of frustration?) as an independent - he is an old man and fully realizes that this is his last shot.

Why does it seem that with the exception of Pete, everybody who counts for anything seems old?

 

[ttwtt78640]

Why does it seem that with the exception of Pete, everybody who counts for anything seems old?

Probably because it takes a while to gain the trust of big money donors and to develop a track record of success (at anything). Politics, like retail sales, is heavily dependent on advertising (image?) which is expensive - 15% will try/buy anything new, 15% will never try/buy anything new and the rest are subject to the influence of marketing/salesmanship.

 

[haymarket]

Probably because it takes a while to gain the trust of big money donors and to develop a track record of success (at anything). Politics, like retail sales, is heavily dependent on advertising (image?) which is expensive - 15% will try/buy anything new, 15% will never try/buy anything new and the rest are subject to the influence of marketing/salesmanship.

Good point.

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

Like the disastrous era Progressives presided over in the early 20th century, this current era of Progressive totalitarianism and massive government intrusion into the lives of citizens will pass.

Three conservatives including Scalia supported Texas anti-Sodomy law where a gay man was arrested for having sex in his own home. Fortunately, the liberals on the court supported the constitution and freedom and the law was overturned.

This idea that conservatives are for small government and personal freedom is totally bogus. Are conservatives for the freedom of people to decide when to abort a pregnancy? Isn't that the government intruding into the lives of citizens? Are conservatives for gays having the right to marry? Do conservatives support those who complain about police (government enforcers) brutality?

 

[ocean515]

Three conservatives including Scalia supported Texas anti-Sodomy law where a gay man was arrested for having sex in his own home. Fortunately, the liberals on the court supported the constitution and freedom and the law was overturned.

This idea that conservatives are for small government and personal freedom is totally bogus. Are conservatives for the freedom of people to decide when to abort a pregnancy? Isn't that the government intruding into the lives of citizens? Are conservatives for gays having the right to marry? Do conservatives support those who complain about police (government enforcers) brutality?

What does you weird comments have to do with my post?

Progressives of this era want to limit speech, control content, control healthcare, control education, etc..

Don't waste your time trying to deny it.

Like the Progressives of the early 20th century, the current crop of Progressives and their ideas, will flame out.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Good point.

IMHO, a moderate demorat other than Joe "whichever way the wind is blowing" Biden has a great chance of winning in the 2020 general POTUS election while a farther left candidate, like Warren or Sanders, has very little chance. There is simply too much (historical footage) out there which shows Joe Biden (like Hillary Clinton) being solidly for both sides of a given issue and Joe Biden really sucks at debating.

 

[Guno]

We've seen thread after thread talking about the demise of the Republican Party for whatever reason be it about Trump, or demographics, some recent election results against prior results, what have you.

In the same regard we saw plenty of threads talking about the demise of the Democrats for whatever reason be it about Obama facing 2 of his 8 years dealing with a split Congress, or the last 4 of his years facing an all Republican Congress, issues more common in urban locations, what have you,.

The one common thread... arrogant certainty, no different than this OP.

The awful and continuous irony here is both the Republican Party and Democratic Party have solid control over this nation's political system from the Federal level down to just about every local level in every single state in the union.

I've posted this before...

View attachment 67268301

... and even though the graphic only goes up through 2018 the numbers today are not all that far removed. Check for yourself here...

Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends

Independents are still the majority and tend to go back and forth between our two party dominant system, to the point that all these threads on Republicans or Democrats who "actually think they are winning" ironically... are winning.

It is nothing more than a political pendulum based on the actions of who they elected last time around. Sure, solid "liberals" are not going to flip all that often going against the party more aligned to them and the same is largely true for solid "conservatives" but overall these predictions end up dead wrong.

So much so that Obama ended up facing the majority of his time facing opposition from Congress even though he enjoyed largely solid election results. Also so much so that Trump ended up winning against Hillary who everyone from CNN to ABC was sure of themselves would not happen. And here we are with Trump and facing his first split Congress despite how he got elected taking the EC without the popular vote.

My point it, that arrogant certainty of what will happen to a party or a politician. There are way too many times these threads are wrong, with "approval" ratings not playing out exactly as predicted when Independents have to pick between two sides of the same hypocritical, aristocratic, corrupt to the hills and back, and overall arrogant certainty coin.

trumps base of uneducated white christians are now 40 % of the population and that is all he can count on

 

[haymarket]

IMHO, a moderate demorat other than Joe "whichever way the wind is blowing" Biden has a great chance of winning in the 2020 general POTUS election while a farther left candidate, like Warren or Sanders, has very little chance. There is simply too much (historical footage) out there which shows Joe Biden (like Hillary Clinton) being solidly for both sides of a given issue and Joe Biden really sucks at debating.

And who would that be?

Trump has proved things. He has proven it does NOT matter what positions you have taken in the past. He has proven it does not matter what positions you take today. He has proven it does not matter if you lose debates. He has proven it does not matter if your character is shown to be despicable and disgusting. He has proves you do not need to show your taxes. He has proven you do not have to be honest or even a good person.

He has even proven that he can shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and that would not matter either.

The only thing that matters is that people vote for you for their own reason and screw everything else that we used to think were important because they are not any longer.

The Deplorables voted for Trump because they want one of their own in the White House and forget everything else.

People who hate Trump simply want to flush that toilet and get rid of the crap that is Trump and really do not care who it is that pulls the handle.

 

[haymarket]

trumps base of uneducated white christians are now 40 % of the population and that is all he can count on

Probably a bit less - I would put it at around a quarter to a third of the population. More in certain areas like the deep South and mountain states of the West and far less in urban areas and the East.