Yeah. I wasn't commenting on your specif number. I have no idea what the number will be. Just pointing-out we are continually getting better at preventing death.we have until 2-3 million deaths to make that happen
If the lessons are learned, you may indeed be right.
But what happens when the bars & gyms and their patrons want them open? To say nothing of the schools? IMO, the schools are the real wildcard!
My state and metro area got hit early, and got hit hard. We were among the worst in the country. But through hard work & sacrifice (and panic!) we then greatly decreased our infection levels to manageable ones. But unfortunately, we've been creeping up steadily since, no matter what we do. Our daily new infected number is several times where it was at our earlier low, and stubbornly refuses to drop. And this is with reasonably strong mitigation, closing indoor bars again, and calling-off in-person K-12 school.
So we shall see. Hopefully, you're right. But with rare exception, it seems relatively quick & easy to plateau and start dropping when you're in hard mitigation. But it's a lot harder to try to open up to even a moderate & constrained semblance to normal life. Like I said, we did a partial open of indoor bars and gyms, and within several weeks had to pull back. Now school has been nixed, too.
What I do recommend is watching today's Fareed Zakara interview with Bill Gates. After thorough dismay when he recounts how badly we fugged up, in the second half of the interview he becomes much more optimistic about next year!
Not trying to discount you, but I don't know that for sure. However, prevalent thought seems to very much agree with you.and theres a second wave in spain now, there is always a second wave
Not trying to discount you, but I don't know that for sure. However, prevalent thought seems to very much agree with you.
Yeah. I wasn't commenting on your specif number. I have no idea what the number will be. Just pointing-out we are continually getting better at preventing death.
But if I had to make a WAG, I'd go with less than your number. Less than a million, I suspect. Maybe even less than a half mil. Hopefully, anyway. But I'm just wildly estimating.
Along with anti-virals and vaccine(s).
We don't need full herd immunity to get better. Partial herd immunity will set us on the right track, along with these other things and our current level of awareness. Once we can act reasonably normally, and still keep R0 <1, we'll be good to go!
I actually did some prior posts on this, where I crunched some numbers.
For the first time since this pandemic started I am feeling quite optimistic about the US getting this outbreak under control. The doom and gloomers will simply point to big overall numbers but won't acknowledge positive downward trends. They refuse to acknowledge what is going on in the moment in real time. This will continue up until the election.
My optimism comes from what I am seeing in Arizona. We had one of the worst outbreaks on the planet at one time. We shut down bars, tubing, gyms and theatres. We started to mandate mask wearing in all major municipalities. Since then the numbers have been coming down significantly. Our rate of transmission RT number is currently .84. The top of our range of possible outcomes is .98. Below the number 1 means you are no longer spreading the virus. California and Florida are also trending in the right direction. These were the states that were feeding the current outbreak. These were the last major states to get hit. The virus has officially has nowhere else to tear through.
Fauci said that if we don't get things under control we may hit 100K cases a day. We did get into the 70k's. We have had a 19% reduction in cases the last two weeks. Now we are in the 50"s. The media will try to scare you by saying we could have as many as 300K dead by December. I suppose we could. My question is what are the odds that actually happens? I will post a link to a model which shows that there is a less than 1% chance we have 300K deaths by November. In fact, the most likely number by November 1st is 200K deaths. It seems there is nearly a 0% chance we will reach 300K by December.
More people are taking this seriously. Technology is moving at warp speed. We are about to enter a nice weather zone for the whole country in September to where more people will be outside. This has been a record year for heat is AZ. I foresee more outdoor dining in the future. I think lessons have been learned from the recent reopenings. We know so much more overall. I think the messaging is finally starting to stabilize. Hopefully, we are past the mass protesting as well.
COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning | We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections and deaths from the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world
There will be a second wave. The pandemic is not even close to being over yet.
colleges are literally JUST opening and someone is confident about the spread?
wow.
Yep!That's the plan! Sooner rather than later, fingers crossed.
Posted this in the thread above, but since it directly relates to your post - I'll also leave it with you.The face mask mandate really had a positive effect. It is is also having an effect in Texas, but the Texas new infection numbers were much worse than Arizona, so it's going to take longer to get it under control/ Also, because of new knowlege in treatment, the fatality rate has gone down drastically. There still is the issue of people who get moderate to severe cases getting permanent damage to their lungs. .. that is something that has to be addressed still. A number of vaccines have entered phase 3 trials, and that means chances are that one of them will be successful.
Do you think these kids have just been sheltering in place this whole time?
so you think they've been emulating college at home?
wow.
Posted this in the thread above, but since it directly relates to your post - I'll also leave it with you.
Starting at 3:40 is Bill Gates discussing the excellent progress being made in treatment options:
(CNN) On GPS: Bill Gates on Covid in the developing world
Respecting your numbers Torus34, I'd like to try to put a bit more positive spin on this.A few points.
As of today, we have reported cases of the Covid virus in the US of about 5,100,000. That's roughly 1.56% of the total US population. It's taken almost 5 months to reach that level. 'Herd immunity' probably requires about 85% of the population to be incapable of spreading the disease, either through recovery after contracting it or through immunization. Herd immunity's a long way off.
Meanwhile, this week just past saw a 17% decrease nation-wide in Covid assigned deaths. That's the first drop in 5 weeks of increasing levels of deaths. That's good news.
However, we should be mindful that Germany, a couple of days ago, had fewer deaths per unit of population than the US. How much less? Germany, per unit of population had 1/23rd the deaths. To restate, the US, on 8/7/2020, had 23 times the number of Covid deaths compared to Germany per unit of population.
Regards, stay safe 'n well.
Yep. I'm becoming more & more optimistic about next year, particularly the second half.That's about what my understanding what.. although he knew some details I didn't
Yep. I'm becoming more & more optimistic about next year, particularly the second half.
For the first time since this pandemic started I am feeling quite optimistic about the US getting this outbreak under control. The doom and gloomers will simply point to big overall numbers but won't acknowledge positive downward trends. They refuse to acknowledge what is going on in the moment in real time. This will continue up until the election.
My optimism comes from what I am seeing in Arizona. We had one of the worst outbreaks on the planet at one time. We shut down bars, tubing, gyms and theatres. We started to mandate mask wearing in all major municipalities. Since then the numbers have been coming down significantly. Our rate of transmission RT number is currently .84. The top of our range of possible outcomes is .98. Below the number 1 means you are no longer spreading the virus. California and Florida are also trending in the right direction. These were the states that were feeding the current outbreak. These were the last major states to get hit. The virus has officially has nowhere else to tear through.
Fauci said that if we don't get things under control we may hit 100K cases a day. We did get into the 70k's. We have had a 19% reduction in cases the last two weeks. Now we are in the 50"s. The media will try to scare you by saying we could have as many as 300K dead by December. I suppose we could. My question is what are the odds that actually happens? I will post a link to a model which shows that there is a less than 1% chance we have 300K deaths by November. In fact, the most likely number by November 1st is 200K deaths. It seems there is nearly a 0% chance we will reach 300K by December.
More people are taking this seriously. Technology is moving at warp speed. We are about to enter a nice weather zone for the whole country in September to where more people will be outside. This has been a record year for heat is AZ. I foresee more outdoor dining in the future. I think lessons have been learned from the recent reopenings. We know so much more overall. I think the messaging is finally starting to stabilize. Hopefully, we are past the mass protesting as well.
COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning | We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections and deaths from the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world
They've been emulating frat parties.
When they were first talking about a second wave it was thought that the first wave would be over by August and then things would ramp back up in the fall. We've just kept it going turning it into one big wave. A much higher percentage of us will have had the virus by the time fall hits, plus there is evidence of T cell immunity in some. I don't think the flu season is gonna be as bad since so many less people will be exposed due to mitigations and social distancing strategies. I think we will see ups and downs but not major waves going forward.
Respecting your numbers Torus34, I'd like to try to put a bit more positive spin on this.
If we extrapolate from the 'official' number of tested positive U.S. cases, we do indeed come-up with around 1.5% population penetration. But it is quite possible the actual number of those having been infected is quite higher. Some believe it's perhaps ten-fold higher. If I were to guess, I'd guess we're closer to 5% infected.
But we don't need to reach full herd immunity to have (some) herd affects. Even just 15 or 20% of the population infected will have some effect on slowing propagation. 30% will slow propagation greatly. Then add some that are vaccinated, others that strongly self-mitigate, along with the treatment options that will be emerging, and I think next year will be very positive for us, particularly the 2nd half.
BTW - I've seen herd immunity usually expressed as 70%.
Also to add to the 'herd' numbers above, there is a percentage of us that are immune even though never exposed to Covid-19. While not understood, it is thought some of us have built immunity from previous non-Covid-19 coronavirus exposure.
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