I'm optimistic!

[Mongidig]

For the first time since this pandemic started I am feeling quite optimistic about the US getting this outbreak under control. The doom and gloomers will simply point to big overall numbers but won't acknowledge positive downward trends. They refuse to acknowledge what is going on in the moment in real time. This will continue up until the election.

My optimism comes from what I am seeing in Arizona. We had one of the worst outbreaks on the planet at one time. We shut down bars, tubing, gyms and theatres. We started to mandate mask wearing in all major municipalities. Since then the numbers have been coming down significantly. Our rate of transmission RT number is currently .84. The top of our range of possible outcomes is .98. Below the number 1 means you are no longer spreading the virus. California and Florida are also trending in the right direction. These were the states that were feeding the current outbreak. These were the last major states to get hit. The virus has officially has nowhere else to tear through.

Fauci said that if we don't get things under control we may hit 100K cases a day. We did get into the 70k's. We have had a 19% reduction in cases the last two weeks. Now we are in the 50"s. The media will try to scare you by saying we could have as many as 300K dead by December. I suppose we could. My question is what are the odds that actually happens? I will post a link to a model which shows that there is a less than 1% chance we have 300K deaths by November. In fact, the most likely number by November 1st is 200K deaths. It seems there is nearly a 0% chance we will reach 300K by December.

More people are taking this seriously. Technology is moving at warp speed. We are about to enter a nice weather zone for the whole country in September to where more people will be outside. This has been a record year for heat is AZ. I foresee more outdoor dining in the future. I think lessons have been learned from the recent reopenings. We know so much more overall. I think the messaging is finally starting to stabilize. Hopefully, we are past the mass protesting as well.

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning | We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections and deaths from the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world

 

[secretive]

There will be a second wave. The pandemic is not even close to being over yet.

 

[Mongidig]

There will be a second wave. The pandemic is not even close to being over yet.

There could be a second wave in places like NY if they open up too quickly. It doesn't sound like that is gonna happen.

I think our first and second waves blended together.

I don't think the pandemic is close to over either but I do think we are gonna get the numbers significantly down in the next couple months.

 

[reflechissez]

There could be a second wave in places like NY if they open up too quickly. It doesn't sound like that is gonna happen.

I think our first and second waves blended together.

I don't think the pandemic is close to over either but I do think we are gonna get the numbers significantly down in the next couple months.

Because we didn't have a nation-wide strategy, all areas are going through their own individual waves. How are you determining that the first and second waves blended together?

 

[mrdeltoid]

I believe that the chance to really put the breaks on this thing was the first couple of months after the virus broke out in Wuhan. Unfortunately, China covered it up, and the virus had a long head start. Now, the only thing that will have any real effect is a vaccine. I think we are stuck with it until then. JMHO

 

[lemmiwinx]

You're going to get it sooner or later it's just a matter of when. In the meantime why shut down all human interaction?

 

[Linc]

Because we didn't have a nation-wide strategy, all areas are going through their own individual waves. How are you determining that the first and second waves blended together?

His OP and that post you quoted are Qovid projections for the election. 8/4 — 8/7 —> 5,128 deaths;

 

[Acadia]

There will be a second wave. The pandemic is not even close to being over yet.

Why? How?

 

[Mongidig]

Because we didn't have a nation-wide strategy, all areas are going through their own individual waves. How are you determining that the first and second waves blended together?

When they were first talking about a second wave it was thought that the first wave would be over by August and then things would ramp back up in the fall. We've just kept it going turning it into one big wave. A much higher percentage of us will have had the virus by the time fall hits, plus there is evidence of T cell immunity in some. I don't think the flu season is gonna be as bad since so many less people will be exposed due to mitigations and social distancing strategies. I think we will see ups and downs but not major waves going forward.

 

[Chomsky]

For the first time since this pandemic started I am feeling quite optimistic about the US getting this outbreak under control. The doom and gloomers will simply point to big overall numbers but won't acknowledge positive downward trends. They refuse to acknowledge what is going on in the moment in real time. This will continue up until the election.

My optimism comes from what I am seeing in Arizona. We had one of the worst outbreaks on the planet at one time. We shut down bars, tubing, gyms and theatres. We started to mandate mask wearing in all major municipalities. Since then the numbers have been coming down significantly. Our rate of transmission RT number is currently .84. The top of our range of possible outcomes is .98. Below the number 1 means you are no longer spreading the virus. California and Florida are also trending in the right direction. These were the states that were feeding the current outbreak. These were the last major states to get hit. The virus has officially has nowhere else to tear through.

Fauci said that if we don't get things under control we may hit 100K cases a day. We did get into the 70k's. We have had a 19% reduction in cases the last two weeks. Now we are in the 50"s. The media will try to scare you by saying we could have as many as 300K dead by December. I suppose we could. My question is what are the odds that actually happens? I will post a link to a model which shows that there is a less than 1% chance we have 300K deaths by November. In fact, the most likely number by November 1st is 200K deaths. It seems there is nearly a 0% chance we will reach 300K by December.

More people are taking this seriously. Technology is moving at warp speed. We are about to enter a nice weather zone for the whole country in September to where more people will be outside. This has been a record year for heat is AZ. I foresee more outdoor dining in the future. I think lessons have been learned from the recent reopenings. We know so much more overall. I think the messaging is finally starting to stabilize. Hopefully, we are past the mass protesting as well.

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning | We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections and deaths from the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world

If the lessons are learned, you may indeed be right.

But what happens when the bars & gyms and their patrons want them open? To say nothing of the schools? IMO, the schools are the real wildcard!

My state and metro area got hit early, and got hit hard. We were among the worst in the country. But through hard work & sacrifice (and panic!) we then greatly decreased our infection levels to manageable ones. But unfortunately, we've been creeping up steadily since, no matter what we do. Our daily new infected number is several times where it was at our earlier low, and stubbornly refuses to drop. And this is with reasonably strong mitigation, closing indoor bars again, and calling-off in-person K-12 school.

So we shall see. Hopefully, you're right. But with rare exception, it seems relatively quick & easy to plateau and start dropping when you're in hard mitigation. But it's a lot harder to try to open up to even a moderate & constrained semblance to normal life. Like I said, we did a partial open of indoor bars and gyms, and within several weeks had to pull back. Now school has been nixed, too.

What I do recommend is watching today's Fareed Zakara interview with Bill Gates. After thorough dismay when he recounts how badly we fugged up, in the second half of the interview he becomes much more optimistic about next year!

 

[Chomsky]

Why? How?

I'm with the OP. If we're now all sufficiently educated & fearful of this damn thing, we might be able to keep it half-way under control until a confluence of events (and time) let it trail-off - probably mid to late next year.

But life will not be 'normal'. Hopefully, it will be bearable.

 

[Mongidig]

If the lessons are learned, you may indeed be right.

But what happens when the bars & gyms and their patrons want them open? To say nothing of the schools? IMO, the schools are the real wildcard!

My state and metro area got hit early, and got hit hard. We were among the worst in the country. But through hard work & sacrifice (and panic!) we then greatly decreased our infection levels to manageable ones. But unfortunately, we've been creeping up steadily since, no matter what we do. Our daily new infected number is several times where it was at our earlier low, and stubbornly refuses to drop. And this is with reasonably strong mitigation, closing indoor bars again, and calling-off in-person K-12 school.

So we shall see. Hopefully, you're right. But with rare exception, it seems relatively quick & easy to plateau and start dropping when you're in hard mitigation. But it's a lot harder to try to open up to even a moderate & constrained semblance to normal life. Like I said, we did a partial open of indoor bars and gyms, and within several weeks had to pull back. Now school has been nixed, too.

What I do recommend is watching today's Fareed Zakara interview with Bill Gates. After thorough dismay when he recounts how badly we fugged up, in the second half of the interview he becomes much more optimistic about next year!

I'm not overly concerned about schools. I see groups of kids outside of school hanging out and not social distancing. I think at school presumably there will be some control of this. I also think they can catch outbreaks relatively early if they happen and go virtual if need be. There is a significant percentage of the country choosing to go virtual anyway. I think we are gonna find that this ends up being less of an issue than first thought.

I don't know what is gonna happen with bars. I do fear that our governor might be pressured into reopening. I also have a little faith that he has learned his lesson. I'd vote for bars not be allowed to open for the rest of the year. Maybe the government can throw some cash there way. If they do open I hope it's outdoor only venues and at reduced capacity.

You are correct it is easy to get the numbers down with mitigation. Hopefully we crush it even further this time. Hopefully we can do some effective contact tracing and stay ahead of this. There will be ups and downs for sure.

 

[year2late]

For the first time since this pandemic started I am feeling quite optimistic about the US getting this outbreak under control. The doom and gloomers will simply point to big overall numbers but won't acknowledge positive downward trends. They refuse to acknowledge what is going on in the moment in real time. This will continue up until the election.

My optimism comes from what I am seeing in Arizona. We had one of the worst outbreaks on the planet at one time. We shut down bars, tubing, gyms and theatres. We started to mandate mask wearing in all major municipalities. Since then the numbers have been coming down significantly. Our rate of transmission RT number is currently .84. The top of our range of possible outcomes is .98. Below the number 1 means you are no longer spreading the virus. California and Florida are also trending in the right direction. These were the states that were feeding the current outbreak. These were the last major states to get hit. The virus has officially has nowhere else to tear through.

Fauci said that if we don't get things under control we may hit 100K cases a day. We did get into the 70k's. We have had a 19% reduction in cases the last two weeks. Now we are in the 50"s. The media will try to scare you by saying we could have as many as 300K dead by December. I suppose we could. My question is what are the odds that actually happens? I will post a link to a model which shows that there is a less than 1% chance we have 300K deaths by November. In fact, the most likely number by November 1st is 200K deaths. It seems there is nearly a 0% chance we will reach 300K by December.

More people are taking this seriously. Technology is moving at warp speed. We are about to enter a nice weather zone for the whole country in September to where more people will be outside. This has been a record year for heat is AZ. I foresee more outdoor dining in the future. I think lessons have been learned from the recent reopenings. We know so much more overall. I think the messaging is finally starting to stabilize. Hopefully, we are past the mass protesting as well.

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning | We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections and deaths from the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world

Let us hope you can lead by example!!!

 

[Chomsky]

I'm not overly concerned about schools. I see groups of kids outside of school hanging out and not social distancing. I think at school presumably there will be some control of this. I also think they can catch outbreaks relatively early if they happen and go virtual if need be. There is a significant percentage of the country choosing to go virtual anyway. I think we are gonna find that this ends up being less of an issue than first thought.

Yep. Worst case, schools go 100% cyber. It's not good. But it's not the end of the world. Ya' gotta' do, what ya' gotta' do. It'll be temporary.

I don't know what is gonna happen with bars. I do fear that our governor might be pressured into reopening. I also have a little faith that he has learned his lesson. I'd vote for bars not be allowed to open for the rest of the year. Maybe the government can throw some cash there way. If they do open I hope it's outdoor only venues and at reduced capacity.

Yes, again. Bars are a real problem. Interestingly, I've now twice heard the problem framed as,

"Do we want to go to bars? Or, do we want to send our kids to school?"

It's not quite that simplistic, but I see the general point being made.

You are correct it is easy to get the numbers down with mitigation. Hopefully we crush it even further this time. Hopefully we can do some effective contact tracing and stay ahead of this. There will be ups and downs for sure.

Yeah, we're maybe two months or so, ahead of you (off our peak). Is it (life) normal? Hell no! Is it doable? Bearable? I suppose. I wouldn't want to live like this year after year. But I can manage into next year, I think.

Anyway, good luck!

 

[Mongidig]

Yep. Worst case, schools go 100% cyber. It's not good. But it's not the end of the world. Ya' gotta' do, what ya' gotta' do. It'll be temporary.

Yes, again. Bars are a real problem. Interestingly, I've now twice heard the problem framed as,

"Do we want to go to bars? Or, do we want to send our kids to school?"

It's not quite that simplistic, but I see the general point being made.

Yeah, we're maybe two months or so, ahead of you (off our peak). Is it (life) normal? Hell no! Is it doable? Bearable? I suppose. I wouldn't want to live like this year after year. But I can manage into next year, I think.

Anyway, good luck!

I think humans can adapt to changing environments. We will all grieve the loss of our pre C19 lives. We will slowly but surely heal from our wounds and adapt to the temporary "New Normal". The good news is that we will reach a point where things start to get better and better. Perhaps we will look back and be able to see some blessings in disguise instead of seeing all of this as a curse. I have a feeling that flu and other contagious diseases might dip in numbers yearly going forward based on what we've learned.

Good luck too you!

 

[Chomsky]

I think humans can adapt to changing environments. We will all grieve the loss of our pre C19 lives. We will slowly but surely heal from our wounds and adapt to the temporary "New Normal". The good news is that we will reach a point where things start to get better and better. Perhaps we will look back and be able to see some blessings in disguise instead of seeing all of this as a curse. I have a feeling that flu and other contagious diseases might dip in numbers yearly going forward based on what we've learned.

Good luck too you!

Thanks.

The bolded is interesting. I was just remarking how except for an incident very early this year, no one in my immediate family has been sick this year. No flu, no cold, no cough, nothing! Obviously, it's because we are mitigating.

So now I'm thinking these fears of the flu + '2nd wave' Covid seasons coming together in the fall, may not be as bad in flu terms as we expect. The same mitigation we do for Covid largely works on the flu & common colds, to say nothing of bacterial infections.

So yeah, I agree with you.

 

[justabubba]

There will be a second wave. The pandemic is not even close to being over yet.

what caused the spanish flu to disappear?

 

[justabubba]

You're going to get it sooner or later it's just a matter of when. In the meantime why shut down all human interaction?

do you recall the flattening of the curve intent?

 

[lwf]

You're going to get it sooner or later it's just a matter of when. In the meantime why shut down all human interaction?

To hopefully keep the death toll from reaching 50 million before a vaccine is developed.

 

[rickc]

Just wait until winter when all those people up north are staying inside out of the cold. Flu season this year will be a real killer.

This school thing just may bring on another spike as all those infected children bring it home to the family.

We will have 200,000 dead by election day easily.

Only hope is the vaccine. Can't believe those deplorables say they won't take it. Just like the mask. But they want them some hydroxychloroquine

 

[justabubba]

To hopefully keep the death toll from reaching 50 million before a vaccine is developed.

i believe 2-3 million is the amount of death required for herd immunity to become effective

 

[Acadia]

I'm with the OP. If we're now all sufficiently educated & fearful of this damn thing, we might be able to keep it half-way under control until a confluence of events (and time) let it trail-off - probably mid to late next year.

But life will not be 'normal'. Hopefully, it will be bearable.

The event is herd immunity.

 

[Chomsky]

The event is herd immunity.

Along with anti-virals and vaccine(s).

We don't need full herd immunity to get better. Partial herd immunity will set us on the right track, along with these other things and our current level of awareness. Once we can act reasonably normally, and still keep R0 <1, we'll be good to go!

I actually did some prior posts on this, where I crunched some numbers.

 

[Chomsky]

i believe 2-3 million is the amount of death required for herd immunity to become effective

But remember, we can't do a straight line extrapolation on death vs infected. We are continuously getting better at mitigating fatalities, and will be gaining an arsenal of anti-virals and other drugs, treatments & techniques to further mitigate them. Just as we did with HIV.

 

[justabubba]

But remember, we can't do a straight line extrapolation on death vs infected. We are continuously getting better at mitigating fatalities, and will be gaining an arsenal of anti-virals and other drugs, treatments & techniques to further mitigate them. Just as we did with HIV.

we have until 2-3 million deaths to make that happen