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How much is too much

The new figures are in the IPCC's numbers.

And those numbers are?

Big ice sheets are sort of invulnerable to warm air blowing over them. The air will be at zero c by the time it has gone 100m across them so the rest of the ice can only be heated by the suns radient energy. Given we are at the distance away from the sun we are and that almost all of the IR is reflected there is a very slow melt rate of ice. See sunbathers in the Alps sitting on glaciers and ice pockets.

I was simply saying that how fast the ice melts is a function of the temperature that is not limited. As we pump more and more CO2 into the atmosphere the greenhouse gas effect will change the amount of IR that is reflected and raise the temperature.
 
Realize you are arguing with a guy who has been shown scientific papers estimating Greenlands ice loss mass, and his response is 'I don't believe it, I know it can't be that much because that's a lot'.

LOL. Yes I realize that but I had some free time.
 
This is the most important statement made in this whole site. There is only one experiment that can be made and tested on this earth and we are doing it. If we get it wrong it won’t be just a building full of people or a bridge full of cars that suffer it will be every person on the planet.
The worse of the predictions are absolutely wrong, yet the some climate scientists still write papers using them. In my view, they lose credibility by doing that. The worse plausible projections still gives us severakl decades to improve the way we do things, and we can a low costs control aerosol emissions. We have dramatically done so in most first world nations, and are still decommissioning or modifying old technology. The concern if the alarmist community would be better focused on getting Asia to play ball, and scrap or modify their existing coal plants, and only build new technology for power.

So how much risk is prudent when the entire world population is at risk.
The entire world population is not at risk from climate change. Maybe a meteor strike...

Please... Do get melodramatic.

I sincerely hope you are right and what we are doing to the atmosphere will not matter. I happen to think the evidence shows the skeptics are wrong and it’s going to be a disaster that can’t be fixed for a long time.
Please don't misrepresent my position like Deuce, 3Goofs, and other chronically do.

I am concerned about the atmosphere. Aerosols are my concern there, not CO2. I see CO2 as doing more good than harm.

To me the sad part is that cutting back on CO2 is not the economic calamity some people are saying. Other countries are putting in governmental economic controls on CO2 that are working very well and their economies are doing just fine.
Really?

They have huge costs involved with CO2 mitigation. Look at Germany.

And in a few decades they will be reaping the benefits of free energy sources while those that don’t are going to be still paying for their energy sources.
How do you figure? The costs as their expensive power generation ages, will get even more expensive as maintenance costs rise.

They will then be at an economic disadvantage. And the projects for those new energy sources are providing jobs for those countries.
Who's propaganda are you reciting?
 
And those numbers are?



I was simply saying that how fast the ice melts is a function of the temperature that is not limited. As we pump more and more CO2 into the atmosphere the greenhouse gas effect will change the amount of IR that is reflected and raise the temperature.

IR has very little effect actually. Shortwave has more of an effect, and soot can more than double the melting if ice by both SW and LW.

The biggest problem we have with ice sheets melting are soot (aerosol) and geothermal changes.
 
And those numbers are?

A maximun of 1m of sea level rise by 2100. Used to be 59cm but they changed it for no readilly apparent reason... well you know knee high was not scary..

I was simply saying that how fast the ice melts is a function of the temperature that is not limited. As we pump more and more CO2 into the atmosphere the greenhouse gas effect will change the amount of IR that is reflected and raise the temperature.

And I was pointing out that temperature is not all that significant. Duration of the temperature being over zero is. Still Greenland's central ice sheet will struggleto melt faster than the snow falls on it.

If there is a net melting of the ice over more than one year you will see perminent valley systems appear with deep gorges into the ice as the process of errosion happens. See the front edge of any glacier that has any melting. Or at least has it's limit caused by melting, not calving.

It the surface is generally smooth then last years melting has been covered by the subsiquent snow fall and the process has had to start again from a new surface.
 
LOL. Yes I realize that but I had some free time.

You are capable of looking at the day length thread and working out for yourself the impact of a 1mm sea level rise from ice melt. Care to comment on why the day length has not changed?
 
You are capable of looking at the day length thread and working out for yourself the impact of a 1mm sea level rise from ice melt. Care to comment on why the day length has not changed?

This isn't something a high school educated plumber can be entrusted to do correctly in his free time.

Kinda like how the same said denier can't pretend ice melt doesn't exist in Greenland when he's never sctually been there or seen any data.

But for people who are interested in the topic, I can offer this:

Reconciling past changes in Earth?s rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk?s enigma | Science Advances
 
This isn't something a high school educated plumber can be entrusted to do correctly in his free time.

Kinda like how the same said denier can't pretend ice melt doesn't exist in Greenland when he's never sctually been there or seen any data.

But for people who are interested in the topic, I can offer this:

Reconciling past changes in Earth?s rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk?s enigma | Science Advances

Interesting you have avoided the day lengthe thread for this.

If anybody can translate this for me please do so. What impact on day length are they claiming for the 0.7mm/yr sea level rise due to Greenland's ice melt?


Reconciling past changes in Earth?s rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk?s enigma | Science Advances

I just can't make out much at all of what they are tryintg to say and thus presume that they are trying to cover up the fact that the result is not what they wanted it to be.
 
Interesting you have avoided the day lengthe thread for this.

If anybody can translate this for me please do so. What impact on day length are they claiming for the 0.7mm/yr sea level rise due to Greenland's ice melt?


Reconciling past changes in Earth?s rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk?s enigma | Science Advances

I just can't make out much at all of what they are tryintg to say and thus presume that they are trying to cover up the fact that the result is not what they wanted it to be.

Interesting that you think your calculations at your kitchen table with high school math somehow is competition with actual science.
 
I think that AGW (or, rather, anthropomorphic climate change) is anti-science. All species impact the environment. Climate is constantly changing. Species tend to do what they do and generally have been unable to get over the hump and modify species behavior to better suit the environment. Secular humanists apparently have the religious belief that somehow homo sapiens are different and can overcome their own programming and do things for the good of the community. One would think that the spectacle of self proclaimed "environmentalists" flying around the world and consuming massive resources would wreck that opinion. Elephants don't change their behavior and continue to trample vegetation. Deer reproduce despite the likelihood of future food shortages. Homo Sapiens are simply a species like other species and will have their relatively short time on this stage. Polar bears are not going to be around forever.
Hopefully in 100,000 year or so homo sapiens will be replaced by "higher" life forms better able to withstand the climatic conditions in the future.

EDIT: The first line is meant to be ironical. Anthropomorphic climate change is science but I am not hopeful that homo sapiens have the capability, based on science, to do anything about it.
 
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I think that AGW (or, rather, anthropomorphic climate change) is anti-science. All species impact the environment. Climate is constantly changing. Species tend to do what they do and generally have been unable to get over the hump and modify species behavior to better suit the environment. Secular humanists apparently have the religious belief that somehow homo sapiens are different and can overcome their own programming and do things for the good of the community. One would think that the spectacle of self proclaimed "environmentalists" flying around the world and consuming massive resources would wreck that opinion. Elephants don't change their behavior and continue to trample vegetation. Deer reproduce despite the likelihood of future food shortages. Homo Sapiens are simply a species like other species and will have their relatively short time on this stage. Polar bears are not going to be around forever.
Hopefully in 100,000 year or so homo sapiens will be replaced by "higher" life forms better able to withstand the climatic conditions in the future.

EDIT: The first line is meant to be ironical. Anthropomorphic climate change is science but I am not hopeful that homo sapiens have the capability, based on science, to do anything about it.

Anthropomorphic climate change is not abbreviated AGW, nor is it an actual term.

I'm guessing since you can't even get the DEFINITIONAL TERMS right, you're probably completely unqualified to challenge current scientific opinion on this.

Of course, you may also be completely unable to discern current scientific opinion, which is the root of the anti-science stuff so prevalent among deniers here.
 
Anthropomorphic climate change is not abbreviated AGW, nor is it an actual term.

I'm guessing since you can't even get the DEFINITIONAL TERMS right, you're probably completely unqualified to challenge current scientific opinion on this.

Of course, you may also be completely unable to discern current scientific opinion, which is the root of the anti-science stuff so prevalent among deniers here.
Congratulations on knowing the difference between anthropomorphic and anthropogenic but you should have caught the irony, especially considering the hint.
 
Seems like the relevant point to my post is 'high school math', not 'kitchen table'.
I think at the the time Einstein only had secondary education, to teach math, and was still working at the patent office.
 
At some level, there's no point in debating the 40% who are too irrational, have too much motivated reasoning, or are otherwise willfully ignorant. They will invent reasons for why they believe what they believe, they will muddy the waters over irrelevant issues, they will insist publicly that they are correct, and their leaders/bloggers/etc will continue to get cut paychecks by the fossil fuel industry. It's better to just get involved in #NoDAPL and similar projects. Direct action at this point is nearly obligatory, but the public dialogue will remain muddied and full of falsehoods and misinformation, much like the creationism-evolution debate was 10 years ago or the public health discussion over smoking 50-60 years ago. You fight, you get a major court case, and fossil fuel gets in line by force.

There aren't really alternative options here.

The problem with your theory is that the cattle industry does more damage than fossil fuels if you deem CO2 "damage".
 
I think at the the time Einstein only had secondary education, to teach math, and was still working at the patent office.

Nope. He was a PhD, and since you didnt know that, you probably dont know his patent office work was also highly technical,and one which he was hardly overqualified for (except the fact that he was Einstein) given the emerging and revolutionary uses of electricity at the turn of the century.
 
I might be wrong, but wasn't Einstein's paper on Special Relativity, written on his kitchen table?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annus_Mirabilis_papers

Can you work out what the damn thing is saying?

I think it might be talking about the effect of a 0.7mm rise in sea level due to polar ice melting being in the millionths of seconds per year but I can't really tell beyond about a 10% confidence level.

Or if anybody could have a look at my maths for the day length thing please do so as I have not done this for 30 years.
 
Can you work out what the damn thing is saying?

I think it might be talking about the effect of a 0.7mm rise in sea level due to polar ice melting being in the millionths of seconds per year but I can't really tell beyond about a 10% confidence level.

Or if anybody could have a look at my maths for the day length thing please do so as I have not done this for 30 years.

LOL.

This is the 'anonymous peer review' for DP posts!
 
Nope. He was a PhD, and since you didnt know that, you probably dont know his patent office work was also highly technical,and one which he was hardly overqualified for (except the fact that he was Einstein) given the emerging and revolutionary uses of electricity at the turn of the century.
He received his PhD the same year, but took no classes, it was all his own work.
 
Well, that's pretty close to 'only secondary education'!
Considering He took no classes beyond secondary education, and applied for and was granted his PhD,
I think it is safe to say it was mostly self study, and his miracle year was the same year he was granter his PhD.
 
Considering He took no classes beyond secondary education, and applied for and was granted his PhD,
I think it is safe to say it was mostly self study, and his miracle year was the same year he was granter his PhD.

Yeah. PhD's are easy. And you dont learn anything in them, really.
 
Yeah. PhD's are easy. And you dont learn anything in them, really.
Einstein's PhD was basically him thinking about how things worked and did not work with his secondary education.
And likely writing it all down on his kitchen table.
 
I can't help but laugh at 'bags like ( a a ceratin poster). I work at an elite Ivy institution and interact with Phd's all the time. The depth and breadth of their stupidity on so many issues is astounding. Most of it is it driven by partisan ideology but some of it can be attributed to lack of basic common sense.

To rely on the degree and and the institution as some kind of final authority is laughable.
 
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