How Long Will the Race Last?

[Sherman123]

For the Republicans and Democrats I'm curious what you all think. Do you think the race will go to the end of March, end of April, end of May, end of June? What scenarios do you see playing out?

If I had to guess right now I'd say I think Clinton secures the Democratic nomination by the end of April. I think she will win Nevada and South Carolina, and run the board in the South on Super Tuesday. But who knows right?

For the Republicans? Good god who knows. I still think odds are on Trump, but we'll see how badly his Iowa loss hurts him.

 

[tres borrachos]

ACK it wouldn't let me choose more than one.

For Republicans - end of June
For Dems - at the convention; Bernie won't toss it in until he absolutely has to

 

[Henrin]

It kind of annoys me to see people drop out after just one state. People from all fifty states should vote at the same time, so everyone gets a chance to vote for their guy.

Anyway, I have no idea. It really depends on how close things are.

 

[Skeptic Bob]

It kind of annoys me to see people drop out after just one state. People from all fifty states should vote at the same time, so everyone gets a chance to vote for their guy.

Anyway, I have no idea. It really depends on how close things are.

I agree. There should be a single primary election day just as there is with the general election.

 

[disneydude]

ACK it wouldn't let me choose more than one.

For Republicans - end of June
For Dems - at the convention; Bernie won't toss it in until he absolutely has to

Wishful thinking.
It will be exactly the opposite. With the proportional dividing of delegates, it is highly likely that no Republican will wrap up the nomination during the primaries unless a couple things happen namely that people will drop out quickly and the race will become a 2-3 person race in which one person gains momentum and becomes the candidate of choice. The problem with the Republicans is that although the Fiorinas/Carsons/Pauls will drop out....Jeb's ego/PAC backing is going to keep him around at least for a month or two. Trump also isn't likely to drop out and Rubio and Cruz will continue to split the other part of the vote. If Trump does drop out, it will be because he decides to run as a third party....otherwise, he will stick around for at least another month or two (unless he has a poor showing in NH....which is unlikely). With 3 candidates splitting the delegates...it is quite possible there will be a contested convention.

The Dems on the otherhand are not likely to have a contested unless Bernie gains enough traction to become a nationwide candidate. Right now, he trails Hilary badly in most of the upcoming states. I think after NH it is probably the beginning of the end for Bernie....but stranger things have happened.

 

[tres borrachos]

Wishful thinking.
It will be exactly the opposite. With the proportional dividing of delegates, it is highly likely that no Republican will wrap up the nomination during the primaries unless a couple things happen namely that people will drop out quickly and the race will become a 2-3 person race in which one person gains momentum and becomes the candidate of choice. The problem with the Republicans is that although the Fiorinas/Carsons/Pauls will drop out....Jeb's ego/PAC backing is going to keep him around at least for a month or two. Trump also isn't likely to drop out and Rubio and Cruz will continue to split the other part of the vote. If Trump does drop out, it will be because he decides to run as a third party....otherwise, he will stick around for at least another month or two (unless he has a poor showing in NH....which is unlikely). With 3 candidates splitting the delegates...it is quite possible there will be a contested convention.

The Dems on the otherhand are not likely to have a contested unless Bernie gains enough traction to become a nationwide candidate. Right now, he trails Hilary badly in most of the upcoming states. I think after NH it is probably the beginning of the end for Bernie....but stranger things have happened.

This is February. "A month or two" doesn't take us to the end of June.

 

[disneydude]

This is February. "A month or two" doesn't take us to the end of June.

Right....but there are a lot of primaries in the next couple of months....and a couple of months splitting the delegates among 3-4 candidates makes it more and more difficult to get the number required to get the nomination. After April....there aren't a lot of delegates out there.