How is the slimdown/shutdown going to effect this months economic stats?

[imagep]

The title says it all, but assuming that the shutdown continues for the entire month, do the furlowed employees get counted as "unemployed" causing the unemployment rate to go up? And I was just reading in our local news about a private company, a subcontractor for the federal government, today laied off 1400 employee, so is that already included in the 800,000 figure, or is that in addition to the 800,000?

Does the reduction in government spending result in a lower reported GDP?

 

[WCH]

350,000 civilian DOD employees went back to work today.

DoD Official: 90 Percent of Furloughed Civilians Coming Back to Work | Defense News | defensenews.com

 

[iacardsfan]

Well now we all know Obama's next excuse if the employment numbers are as good as we hope.

 

[imagep]

Well now we all know Obama's next excuse if the employment numbers are as good as we hope.

???

What type of numbers are expecting, and what's his excuse?

 

[pinqy]

The title says it all, but assuming that the shutdown continues for the entire month, do the furlowed employees get counted as "unemployed" causing the unemployment rate to go up? And I was just reading in our local news about a private company, a subcontractor for the federal government, today laied off 1400 employee, so is that already included in the 800,000 figure, or is that in addition to the 800,000?

Well, the household survey used for the Labor Force numbers uses the week that contains the 12th as the reference week...so for October, this week is the only one that matters. So those back to work this week (most of DoD) will show up as employed for October. For those on furlough, even though they've been guaranteed back pay, I believe I'll still be considered a temporary layoff and they'll be classified as unemployed.

BUT....who is going to collect the data? Collection is supposed to start next week.

Does the reduction in government spending result in a lower reported GDP?

Maybe....GDP is by quarter, so if October's spending is down, there could be extra spending in November or December.

 

[iacardsfan]

???

What type of numbers are expecting, and what's his excuse?

Well if they are low numbers he will just blame the fact that the impending shutdown made businesses slimdown and will probably put the blame on the republicans.

 

[imagep]

Well if they are low numbers he will just blame the fact that the impending shutdown made businesses slimdown and will probably put the blame on the republicans.

Sure.

Which I think is part of his plan. It will prove, that our government has value, both economic, and in the quality of life (national parks, etc.) of our citizens. He will then be able to use these apparent facts to put a damper on the Tea Party rhetoric, which basically argues that we don't need guberment.

For this reason, I believe that Obama has no intention on signing any bill until after the end of the month. He wants the shutdown month numbers to be as poor as possible, and then to give back pay to all the federal workers in November, so that we have a great November, and a stark contrast in our economy between the normal sized government and the "slimmed down" government.

I didn't vote for Obama, and for the most part I think he has done a horrible job, but I suspect that he is going to come out to be the big winner in this. Seems to me that the republicans are sort of like a football team that is full of talent, but very poorly coached, making mistake after mistake, and losing games that they shouldn't have lost, not because the other team is better, but because they (republicans) aren't calling the right plays.

 

[Muhammed]

The title says it all, but assuming that the shutdown continues for the entire month, do the furlowed employees get counted as "unemployed" causing the unemployment rate to go up?

The unemployment rate that the government reports to the press is figured using telephone surveys. So really it just depends on how they answer the questions.

 

[imagep]

The unemployment rate that the government reports to the press is figured using telephone surveys. So really it just depends on how they answer the questions.

Ya, I believe they ask how many people in the household are age 16 or older, and if any of those people are hospitalized, incarcerated, or in the military, and then use the number of 16+ year olds who are potentially available for work as the "workforce population" number. Then they narrow it down further, by asking if any of those people currently are not working, but have looked for work within the past 30 days. It's that last part that may keep most government furlowed employees out of the unemployment figure, because I doubt that many of them have been actively looking for work.

 

[head of joaquin]

Forget about the shut down. The default is set for about a week. If it happens, there will be several hundred people laid off almost immediately, and the repercussions will surely result in one of the largest recessions ever. The shut down will look like the good old days. Though both are part of the tea party's bizarre punitive strategy.

Prediction: it will happen. The craziness of the tea party has no limits.

 

[imagep]

Forget about the shut down. The default is set for about a week. If it happens, there will be several hundred people laid off almost immediately, and the repercussions will surely result in one of the largest recessions ever. The shut down will look like the good old days. Though both are part of the tea party's bizarre punitive strategy.

Prediction: it will happen. The craziness of the tea party has no limits.

I don't think that "several hundred" people being laid off almost immediately are going to make a lot of difference, although I suspect that it will be far more than "several hundred". Did you mean "hundred thousand" or maybe even "million"?

Anyhow, Obama will again use this to his advantage. It's my understanding that the treasury will have to make the decisions as to exactly what gets paid and funded and what doesn't. Since the treasury is part of the executive branch, Obama should have a lot of influence, and will shut down whatever harms conservatives and particularly the Tea Party the most.

I'd imagine that the White House has a team of people already looking up what government programs and projects had the favor of republicans, and are already building a list of the things that they can shut down and cause conservatives the most pain and frustration as possible. I'd imagine that it would be in our national best interest to shut down more of our government, than to default on our debt obligations. And stuff in republican leaning states, and contracts with corporations that were large contributors to republicans will be the first on this list. Probably huge cuts in the military, maybe even military layoffs.

 

[pinqy]

The unemployment rate that the government reports to the press is figured using telephone surveys. So really it just depends on how they answer the questions.

It's not a telephone survey as such. Each state is divided into Primary Statistical Units (usually about county size), and units similar in economy are grouped together into strata. Some strata have only one unit in them (like Los Angeles, or Dallas-Ft Worth) and then the PSU s are randomly chosen from each strata, and the random selection of neighborhoods, then houses. Households are in for 4 months, out for 8, back in for 4. Household entering or re-entering are given a personal interview and after that a phone interview is optional.

Ya, I believe they ask how many people in the household are age 16 or older, and if any of those people are hospitalized, incarcerated, or in the military, and then use the number of 16+ year olds who are potentially available for work as the "workforce population" number.

Close....it's 15 and older (though only 16+ is published) and those not in jail, military, or an institution are eligible (short term hospitalization is still eligible). It's not called "workforce population, but Adult Civilian Non-institutional Population, or just Population. "Workforce" could get confused with Labor Force, which is just employed plus Unemployed.

Then they narrow it down further, by asking if any of those people currently are not working, but have looked for work within the past 30 days. It's that last part that may keep most government furlowed employees out of the unemployment figure, because I doubt that many of them have been actively looking for work.

There is an exception for temporary layoffs...they don't have to have looked for work.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Forget about the shut down. The default is set for about a week. If it happens, there will be several hundred people laid off almost immediately, and the repercussions will surely result in one of the largest recessions ever. The shut down will look like the good old days. Though both are part of the tea party's bizarre punitive strategy.

Prediction: it will happen. The craziness of the tea party has no limits.

Yeah I think you meant several hundred thousand. And the tea party is crazy ass mo fo's. It is reasonable to consider them financial terrorists. If I were smart with the law i would find a way to prosecute them all.

 

[SBu]

The title says it all, but assuming that the shutdown continues for the entire month, do the furlowed employees get counted as "unemployed" causing the unemployment rate to go up? And I was just reading in our local news about a private company, a subcontractor for the federal government, today laied off 1400 employee, so is that already included in the 800,000 figure, or is that in addition to the 800,000?

Does the reduction in government spending result in a lower reported GDP?

If the shutdown continues, they'll probably just start delaying the reports or not releasing them altogether like they have been doing since it began.

Econoday Economic Report: Employment Situation October 4, 2013

 

[austrianecon]

Yeah I think you meant several hundred thousand. And the tea party is crazy ass mo fo's. It is reasonable to consider them financial terrorists. If I were smart with the law i would find a way to prosecute them all.

And this is why you area joke.

 

[head of joaquin]

Yeah I think you meant several hundred thousand. And the tea party is crazy ass mo fo's. It is reasonable to consider them financial terrorists. If I were smart with the law i would find a way to prosecute them all.

It's time for recalls and impeachment. The only way we can save the economy is to remove these freaks from office.

 

[imagep]

It's time for recalls and impeachment. The only way we can save the economy is to remove these freaks from office.

I was just wondering about that myself.

Seems to me since there is clearly the votes in the House to pass a clean resolution, that Boehner is obstructing congressional action, which may be grounds for impeachment. If he could be impeached, he could be then censored, and stripped of his leadership responsibilities, and replaced.

 

[washunut]

I was just wondering about that myself.

Seems to me since there is clearly the votes in the House to pass a clean resolution, that Boehner is obstructing congressional action, which may be grounds for impeachment. If he could be impeached, he could be then censored, and stripped of his leadership responsibilities, and replaced.

Then you must think that Reid can be impeached for not allowing votes on partial openings for vital services like NIH.

 

[imagep]

Then you must think that Reid can be impeached for not allowing votes on partial openings for vital services like NIH.

Thats possible also. Good point!

 

[washunut]

Thats possible also. Good point!

I do think that Reid can be charged for manslaughter if someone who should be allowed treatment at NIH dies. I think it is called depraved indifference.

Most people on this site have seen him try to equate kids who need treatment for cancer with people who are getting an unexpected PAID vacation.

 

[head of joaquin]

Then you must think that Reid can be impeached for not allowing votes on partial openings for vital services like NIH.

The Reverso-Meme in full flower. The GOP closes the government down, and tea party shills blame Reid.

Totally out of touch again.

 

[head of joaquin]

I do think that Reid can be charged for manslaughter if someone who should be allowed treatment at NIH dies. I think it is called depraved indifference.

Most people on this site have seen him try to equate kids who need treatment for cancer with people who are getting an unexpected PAID vacation.

God it's hilarious to watch you try so hard. Everybody's laughing at the tea party.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

The Reverso-Meme in full flower. The GOP closes the government down, and tea party shills blame Reid.

Totally out of touch again.

The Tea Party is even gloating about doing it. The problem is here that regular republicans have no clue how the TP's took over and how they claimed to be R's that they are forced to take on TP as their own and so they feel the need to defend them. When in reality they should be saying: "these guys are whackos why did you elect them?"

 

[Linc]

Ryan got spanked good by red-state erickson today, causing his flip-flop.
After Ryan came after Can'tor's real targets, the three entitlements.
Their meme is that ACA is another entitlement.

The Reverso-Meme in full flower. The GOP closes the government down, and tea party shills blame Reid.

Totally out of touch again.

 

[Linc]

These stats will not be available since cantor is enjoying his latest revenge on the POTUS and govt. will still be closed.

The title says it all, but assuming that the shutdown continues for the entire month, do the furlowed employees get counted as "unemployed" causing the unemployment rate to go up? And I was just reading in our local news about a private company, a subcontractor for the federal government, today laied off 1400 employee, so is that already included in the 800,000 figure, or is that in addition to the 800,000?

Does the reduction in government spending result in a lower reported GDP?