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Latest has Guiliani winning
Guiliani 46%
Clinton 45%
She overwhelmingly beats all her Democrat competition in the primary, but loses in the general.
NBC / Wall Street Journal has Hillary beating Rudy 47-41% (and 42-34-11% with Bloomberg).
Fox News has Hillary beating Rudy 46-41%.
The prediction markets are a much better indicator of the actual state of the election.
"For 15 years, I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger," she said. "So if you want a winner who knows how to take them on, I'm your girl."
Every time Hillary opens her mouth, she alienates half the country, and proves her divisive and spiteful nature. This is going to bite her in her giant *** long before the election.
America doesn't need a divisive bitch in the White-house. Democrats should look to Bill Richardson, as a true liberal, who actually wants to lead the country, not divide it further. Republicans should look to Mike Huckabee for the same type of leadership in a Conservative mold.
My cite is the Real Clear Politics average of all polls.
Stinger said:Sometimes but they involve speculation not preference
Stinger said:As of October 4, 2006 - eventual winner in bold.
Missouri: Talent (GOP) 50.9 bid | McCaskill (Dem) 49.0 bid
New Jersey: Kean (GOP) 53.0 bid | Menendez (Dem) 43.0 bid
Ohio: Brown (Dem) 75.0 bid | DeWine (GOP) 24.9 bid
Tennessee: Corker (GOP) 50.0 bid | Ford (Dem) 50.0 bid
Virginia: Allen (GOP) 65.0 bid | Webb (Dem) 35.0 bid
Maryland: Cardin (Dem) 74.2 bid | Steele (GOP) 24.7 bid
Minnesota: Klobuchar (Dem) 90.0 bid | Kennedy (GOP) 9.0 bid
Montana: Tester (Dem) 82.0 bid | Burns (GOP) 15.0 bid
Pennsylvania: Casey (Dem) 84.5 bid | Santorum (GOP) 10.0 bid
Rhode Island: Whitehouse (Dem) 72.0 bid | Chafee (GOP) 26.0 bid
Washington: Cantwell (Dem) 88.9 bid | McGavick (GOP) 7.0 bid
Michigan: Stabenow (Dem) 90.0 bid | Bouchard (GOP) 9.0 bid
In that case, you're just plain wrong. The RCP average shows Clinton ahead of Giuliani by 1%.
But again, the polls mean absolutely nothing.
Speculation is a much better predictor of the results than preference.
Most voters don't know enough about the candidates yet to have an informed opinion on their preference, whereas the people who are risking actual cash on predicting the eventual winner generally *do* have an informed opinion.
Ya, I'd say that the prediction markets did an excellent job on this last election.
TODAY................my post was yesterday, it is updated daily.
Stinger said:Of whom they at this point in time think all those people who are so uniformed will vote into the office. No different than if I bet on the price of corn this time next year when I'm really only betting that it will go up in the short term and then I get sell my contract for a profit.
Stinger said:They got some right and some wrong and some wrong by a very wide margin.
Disagree. As an Arkansas resident, I know of the scandals he's been accused of as soon as he left office. That and he switched from being a Democrat to being a Republican about the time of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. It doesn't really bode well for him as person.
So are you willing to state that in the last 24 hours, Hillary has become the favorite to win the election?
Have you ever invested in commodities? In the futures market?If you're good at betting on the price of corn, the market will reward you with profits,
And the ones that were right could have been picked by anyone due to the margins.There were only three "wrong" picks on your list,
Yeah, the ones that are hard to call, sorta like the 47-48 split between Hillary and Giuliani.two of which were less than 60-40 splits.
I guess if you were willing to state that Giuliani was two days ago.
Stinger said:I said she was slipping, polls indicate trends over time, are you willing to state that she does not command the lead she once had and in fact within the margin of error is not the leader anymore?
Stinger said:Have you ever invested in commodities? In the futures market?
Stinger said:And the ones that were right could have been picked by anyone due to the margins.
Stinger said:Yeah, the ones that are hard to call, sorta like the 47-48 split between Hillary and Giuliani.
Stinger said:And totally blew the Webb Allen contest. The speculative markets are just another tool, they are not sacrosanct.
No. I'm not the one citing opinion polls 15 months before an election as evidence of anything.
No. See above.
No but they work like any other investment.
What does this even mean?
Webb was a 35% underdog to win.
You read them, you cited one, you're being obtuse and denying the truth. He was.
Stinger said:So again unwilling to admit the obvious.
Stinger said:No they don't. If I buy a June contract for home heating oil, I'm not necessarily doing it based on the price I think June home heating oil will, I might be more interested in what that price will be in December. Same now, if I invest in a candidate today it might have nothing to do with where I think they will be in Nov. 2008.
Stinger said:And if you had invested in Allen, looking at the speculative market you would have lost.
So, is this what the next 16 months at DP will bring? Day by day updates on who is ahead in the polls?
Ah, the sweet release of death...pray, hold me in your icy tendrils now.
I only cited one to show you how ridiculous it is to claim that you can judge the state of an election 15 months in the future from an opinion poll.
Not necessarily but you can probably expect to see people comment when there has been a noticeable shift in the trend.
Lieberman left the Democratic party when it turned divisive and spiteful. Watch closely and mark my words. As the Democratic Party becomes more and more divisive, and as Hillary continues to drive a wedge between Americans, there will be wholesale defections from the Divisive Dem's.
"For 15 years, I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger," she said. "So if you want a winner who knows how to take them on, I'm your girl."
Every time Hillary opens her mouth, she alienates half the country, and proves her divisive and spiteful nature. This is going to bite her in her giant *** long before the election.
America doesn't need a divisive bitch in the White-house. Democrats should look to Bill Richardson, as a true liberal, who actually wants to lead the country, not divide it further. Republicans should look to Mike Huckabee for the same type of leadership in a Conservative mold.
I think that the Republican candidate will get slaughtered in the 2008 election, no matter who runs against the Democrats. The Democratic candidate would have to make a crucial mistake in order to lose the election to a Republican.
Except there HASN'T been a noticeable shift in the trend. This whole thread started when you cited ONE POLL that showed Rudy Giuliani a whopping 0.4% ahead of Hillary Clinton.
Watch closely and mark my words. As the Democratic Party becomes more and more divisive, and as Hillary continues to drive a wedge between Americans, there will be wholesale defections from the Divisive Dem's.
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