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Hillary slipping?

Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

Latest has Guiliani winning

Guiliani 46%
Clinton 45%

She overwhelmingly beats all her Democrat competition in the primary, but loses in the general.

NBC / Wall Street Journal has Hillary beating Rudy 47-41% (and 42-34-11% with Bloomberg).

Fox News has Hillary beating Rudy 46-41%.


...of course, none of these polls mean sh1t right now. Most voters aren't paying any attention at all to the election yet. The prediction markets are a much better indicator of the actual state of the election. InTrade gives Rudy a 59% chance of winning the general (if he wins the nomination), but gives Hillary a 65% chance of winning the general (if she wins the nomination).

Overall, the prediction markets show that there is a 56.6% chance that the next president is a Democrat, a 39.5% chance for a Republican, and a 4.3% chance for an independent (presumably Bloomberg).
 
"For 15 years, I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger," she said. "So if you want a winner who knows how to take them on, I'm your girl."

Every time Hillary opens her mouth, she alienates half the country, and proves her divisive and spiteful nature. This is going to bite her in her giant *** long before the election.

America doesn't need a divisive bitch in the White-house. Democrats should look to Bill Richardson, as a true liberal, who actually wants to lead the country, not divide it further. Republicans should look to Mike Huckabee for the same type of leadership in a Conservative mold.
 
Unfortunately, Hillary and Bush have both divided the nation so effectively, that neither parity is looking for "Sanity" in their candidates any more.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

NBC / Wall Street Journal has Hillary beating Rudy 47-41% (and 42-34-11% with Bloomberg).

Fox News has Hillary beating Rudy 46-41%.

My cite is the Real Clear Politics average of all polls.

The prediction markets are a much better indicator of the actual state of the election.

Sometimes but they involve speculation not preference

As of October 4, 2006 - eventual winner in bold.

Missouri: Talent (GOP) 50.9 bid | McCaskill (Dem) 49.0 bid

New Jersey: Kean (GOP) 53.0 bid | Menendez (Dem) 43.0 bid

Ohio: Brown (Dem) 75.0 bid | DeWine (GOP) 24.9 bid

Tennessee: Corker (GOP) 50.0 bid | Ford (Dem) 50.0 bid

Virginia: Allen (GOP) 65.0 bid | Webb (Dem) 35.0 bid

Maryland: Cardin (Dem) 74.2 bid | Steele (GOP) 24.7 bid

Minnesota: Klobuchar (Dem) 90.0 bid | Kennedy (GOP) 9.0 bid

Montana: Tester (Dem) 82.0 bid | Burns (GOP) 15.0 bid

Pennsylvania: Casey (Dem) 84.5 bid | Santorum (GOP) 10.0 bid

Rhode Island: Whitehouse (Dem) 72.0 bid | Chafee (GOP) 26.0 bid

Washington: Cantwell (Dem) 88.9 bid | McGavick (GOP) 7.0 bid

Michigan: Stabenow (Dem) 90.0 bid | Bouchard (GOP) 9.0 bid
 
"For 15 years, I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger," she said. "So if you want a winner who knows how to take them on, I'm your girl."

Every time Hillary opens her mouth, she alienates half the country, and proves her divisive and spiteful nature. This is going to bite her in her giant *** long before the election.

America doesn't need a divisive bitch in the White-house. Democrats should look to Bill Richardson, as a true liberal, who actually wants to lead the country, not divide it further. Republicans should look to Mike Huckabee for the same type of leadership in a Conservative mold.

Disagree. As an Arkansas resident, I know of the scandals he's been accused of as soon as he left office. That and he switched from being a Democrat to being a Republican about the time of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. It doesn't really bode well for him as person.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

My cite is the Real Clear Politics average of all polls.

In that case, you're just plain wrong. The RCP average shows Clinton ahead of Giuliani by 1%.

RealClearPolitics - Polls

But again, the polls mean absolutely nothing.

Stinger said:
Sometimes but they involve speculation not preference

Speculation is a much better predictor of the results than preference. Most voters don't know enough about the candidates yet to have an informed opinion on their preference, whereas the people who are risking actual cash on predicting the eventual winner generally *do* have an informed opinion. If they don't, the market will punish them.

Stinger said:
As of October 4, 2006 - eventual winner in bold.

Missouri: Talent (GOP) 50.9 bid | McCaskill (Dem) 49.0 bid

New Jersey: Kean (GOP) 53.0 bid | Menendez (Dem) 43.0 bid

Ohio: Brown (Dem) 75.0 bid | DeWine (GOP) 24.9 bid

Tennessee: Corker (GOP) 50.0 bid | Ford (Dem) 50.0 bid

Virginia: Allen (GOP) 65.0 bid | Webb (Dem) 35.0 bid

Maryland: Cardin (Dem) 74.2 bid | Steele (GOP) 24.7 bid

Minnesota: Klobuchar (Dem) 90.0 bid | Kennedy (GOP) 9.0 bid

Montana: Tester (Dem) 82.0 bid | Burns (GOP) 15.0 bid

Pennsylvania: Casey (Dem) 84.5 bid | Santorum (GOP) 10.0 bid

Rhode Island: Whitehouse (Dem) 72.0 bid | Chafee (GOP) 26.0 bid

Washington: Cantwell (Dem) 88.9 bid | McGavick (GOP) 7.0 bid

Michigan: Stabenow (Dem) 90.0 bid | Bouchard (GOP) 9.0 bid

Ya, I'd say that the prediction markets did an excellent job on this last election. Keep in mind that being a 51% favorite to win is not the same as being a 100% favorite to win. It means that if the election was held 100 times, a candidate would win 51 times and lose 49.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

In that case, you're just plain wrong. The RCP average shows Clinton ahead of Giuliani by 1%.

TODAY................my post was yesterday, it is updated daily.

But again, the polls mean absolutely nothing.

As much as anything else.

Speculation is a much better predictor of the results than preference.

Sometimes.

Most voters don't know enough about the candidates yet to have an informed opinion on their preference, whereas the people who are risking actual cash on predicting the eventual winner generally *do* have an informed opinion.

Of whom they at this point in time think all those people who are so uniformed will vote into the office. No different than if I bet on the price of corn this time next year when I'm really only betting that it will go up in the short term and then I get sell my contract for a profit.


Ya, I'd say that the prediction markets did an excellent job on this last election.

They got some right and some wrong and some wrong by a very wide margin.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

TODAY................my post was yesterday, it is updated daily.

So are you willing to state that in the last 24 hours, Hillary has become the favorite to win the election? If not, then that illustrates my point that polls mean very little at this stage, especially when they're within the margin of error and especially when they're over a year before the election.

Stinger said:
Of whom they at this point in time think all those people who are so uniformed will vote into the office. No different than if I bet on the price of corn this time next year when I'm really only betting that it will go up in the short term and then I get sell my contract for a profit.

If you're good at betting on the price of corn, the market will reward you with profits, and you'll be able to make more bets on the price of corn. If you suck at betting on the price of corn, the market will punish you with losses, and you won't be able to make as many bets on the price of corn. Thus the market is efficient, and most of the money in the market comes from people who know what they're doing.

Stinger said:
They got some right and some wrong and some wrong by a very wide margin.

There were only three "wrong" picks on your list, two of which were less than 60-40 splits. Of the four races in which the underdog had a 20-40% chance of winning, only one of them was "wrong." Which is about what you would expect statistically.
 
Disagree. As an Arkansas resident, I know of the scandals he's been accused of as soon as he left office. That and he switched from being a Democrat to being a Republican about the time of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. It doesn't really bode well for him as person.

Funny how Libs go crazy over "Innocent until proven guilty" when it's a terrorist in Guantanamo, or a Democrat with his pants around his ankles, but if its a Republican, accusations are PROOF of guilt.

Lieberman left the Democratic party when it turned divisive and spiteful. Watch closely and mark my words. As the Democratic Party becomes more and more divisive, and as Hillary continues to drive a wedge between Americans, there will be wholesale defections from the Divisive Dem's.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

So are you willing to state that in the last 24 hours, Hillary has become the favorite to win the election?

I guess if you were willing to state that Giuliani was two days ago.

I said she was slipping, polls indicate trends over time, are you willing to state that she does not command the lead she once had and in fact within the margin of error is not the leader anymore?


If you're good at betting on the price of corn, the market will reward you with profits,
Have you ever invested in commodities? In the futures market?


There were only three "wrong" picks on your list,
And the ones that were right could have been picked by anyone due to the margins.

two of which were less than 60-40 splits.
Yeah, the ones that are hard to call, sorta like the 47-48 split between Hillary and Giuliani.

And totally blew the Webb Allen contest. The speculative markets are just another tool, they are not sacrosanct.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

I guess if you were willing to state that Giuliani was two days ago.

No. I'm not the one citing opinion polls 15 months before an election as evidence of anything.

Stinger said:
I said she was slipping, polls indicate trends over time, are you willing to state that she does not command the lead she once had and in fact within the margin of error is not the leader anymore?

No. See above.

Stinger said:
Have you ever invested in commodities? In the futures market?

No but they work like any other investment. The market rewards the savvy investors and punishes the idiots, such that the savvy investors have more money to invest and the idiots have less. Economic survival of the fittest. Do you disagree that markets are efficient?

Stinger said:
And the ones that were right could have been picked by anyone due to the margins.

What does this even mean? :confused:

Stinger said:
Yeah, the ones that are hard to call, sorta like the 47-48 split between Hillary and Giuliani.

That is a POLL, not a prediction market.

Stinger said:
And totally blew the Webb Allen contest. The speculative markets are just another tool, they are not sacrosanct.

Webb was a 35% underdog to win. That did not mean that he had a 0% chance of winning, it meant that he had a 35% chance of winning. Like I said, there were four races where the underdog had a 20-40% chance of winning, and the underdog won in one of those four. About what you'd expect.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

Originally Posted by Stinger
I guess if you were willing to state that Giuliani was two days ago.


No. I'm not the one citing opinion polls 15 months before an election as evidence of anything.

You read them, you cited one, you're being obtuse and denying the truth. He was.

Originally Posted by Stinger
I said she was slipping, polls indicate trends over time, are you willing to state that she does not command the lead she once had and in fact within the margin of error is not the leader anymore?


No. See above.

So again unwilling to admit the obvious.


No but they work like any other investment.

No they don't. If I buy a June contract for home heating oil, I'm not necessarily doing it based on the price I think June home heating oil will, I might be more interested in what that price will be in December. Same now, if I invest in a candidate today it might have nothing to do with where I think they will be in Nov. 2008.

Originally Posted by Stinger
And the ones that were right could have been picked by anyone due to the margins.

What does this even mean? :confused:

It's quite clear.


That is a POLL, not a prediction market.



Webb was a 35% underdog to win.

And if you had invested in Allen, looking at the speculative market you would have lost.
 
So, is this what the next 16 months at DP will bring? Day by day updates on who is ahead in the polls?

Ah, the sweet release of death...pray, hold me in your icy tendrils now.
 
As one of those hoorible ringht wingers Iknow hillary will get the nod for the left espaially since Obama flipped out on Pakistan so he's dead. But I'm happy with Hillary because she is the farthest to the right of all candidates. "I'm youre girl" maybe baby!!
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

You read them, you cited one, you're being obtuse and denying the truth. He was.

I only cited one to show you how ridiculous it is to claim that you can judge the state of an election 15 months in the future from an opinion poll.

Stinger said:
So again unwilling to admit the obvious.

Most voters aren't even paying attention to the election.

Stinger said:
No they don't. If I buy a June contract for home heating oil, I'm not necessarily doing it based on the price I think June home heating oil will, I might be more interested in what that price will be in December. Same now, if I invest in a candidate today it might have nothing to do with where I think they will be in Nov. 2008.

Yes, I am aware of how commodities markets work. That is irrelevant. They still reward people who know how to play the game, and punish those who don't.

You can buy/sell candidates today based on reasons other than where you think they'll be in November 2008...but someone else has to sell/buy them from you. The result is that their market quote always reflects the probability that they'll win (except for the very brief moments when some large investor has just bought/sold a large amount of stock, and the market hasn't corrected yet).

Stinger said:
And if you had invested in Allen, looking at the speculative market you would have lost.

Yes, sometimes people lose money in the stock market. If they didn't, there wouldn't be any profit potential either. Allen's 65% chance of winning was not a 100% chance of winning. If it was, the best investment strategy would just be to buy whichever candidate was worth more, and wait for the stock to pay off $100. Obviously that doesn't work, because the market would quickly drive the candidates' stock price up to $100 anyway.
 
So, is this what the next 16 months at DP will bring? Day by day updates on who is ahead in the polls?

Ah, the sweet release of death...pray, hold me in your icy tendrils now.

Not necessarily but you can probably expect to see people comment when there has been a noticeable shift in the trend.

Don't ya think?

Of course you don't have to read the threads discussing which way the races are going, but some of us will continue to do so.
 
Re: Hillary slipping? Even More!

I only cited one to show you how ridiculous it is to claim that you can judge the state of an election 15 months in the future from an opinion poll.

No more or less than you claiming to do so with a prediction market. They both show trends and current snap shots, if you want to discuss the political aspects of that then lets do so. I really find any more discussion of why you think prediction polls sacrosanct and all others unworthy less than interesting anymore.
 
Not necessarily but you can probably expect to see people comment when there has been a noticeable shift in the trend.

Except there HASN'T been a noticeable shift in the trend. This whole thread started when you cited ONE POLL that showed Rudy Giuliani a whopping 0.4% ahead of Hillary Clinton.

Unless she was previously ahead by >10%, this hardly qualifies as a "noticeable shift in the trend."
 
Lieberman left the Democratic party when it turned divisive and spiteful. Watch closely and mark my words. As the Democratic Party becomes more and more divisive, and as Hillary continues to drive a wedge between Americans, there will be wholesale defections from the Divisive Dem's.

No, Lieberman did not leave the democratic party. He lost the primary where he was running as a democrat, and won only as an independant. Even today, he still caucases with the democrats. If anything, the democratic party kicked him out.
 
"For 15 years, I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger," she said. "So if you want a winner who knows how to take them on, I'm your girl."

Every time Hillary opens her mouth, she alienates half the country, and proves her divisive and spiteful nature. This is going to bite her in her giant *** long before the election.

America doesn't need a divisive bitch in the White-house. Democrats should look to Bill Richardson, as a true liberal, who actually wants to lead the country, not divide it further. Republicans should look to Mike Huckabee for the same type of leadership in a Conservative mold.


Did you say Hillary ""alienates half the country" by standing up to the right wing? Last time I checked, the majority of Americans are not right-wingers. The majority of Americans can be persuaded to vote for either Republican or Democratic candidates (which is a big reason why we have a republican, then a democrat, then another republican, etc...). And as the 2006 elections showed, the majority of states are sick of the Republican Party and voted for a Democrat senator instead. And things haven't gotten much better since 2006. I think that the Republican candidate will get slaughtered in the 2008 election, no matter who runs against the Democrats. The Democratic candidate would have to make a crucial mistake in order to lose the election to a Republican.
 
I think that the Republican candidate will get slaughtered in the 2008 election, no matter who runs against the Democrats. The Democratic candidate would have to make a crucial mistake in order to lose the election to a Republican.

I agree, and I think that's the only reason why a female candidate and a black candidate even stand a ghost of a chance.
Bush's monumental incompetence and corruption have paved the way to a new level of social equity, hastening the advent of a 'first' that our society otherwise wouldn't have been ready to accept for another half a century: a female and/or a minority occupying the highest position in the land.
 
Except there HASN'T been a noticeable shift in the trend. This whole thread started when you cited ONE POLL that showed Rudy Giuliani a whopping 0.4% ahead of Hillary Clinton.


LOOK this is the second time you have purposely misrepresented what I posted, get it right next time.

What is posted was the AVERAGE of ALL the leading polls as RealClearPolitics runs regularly. NOT just ONE poll. And it is the TREND that is noticeable, Hillary was leading them all by double digits a while back or at least substantial single digits. Now it you look today even some of the other Republicans are getting WELL within the margin or error and in reach of her.

You can take it or leave it for all I care but get in correct.
 
Watch closely and mark my words. As the Democratic Party becomes more and more divisive, and as Hillary continues to drive a wedge between Americans, there will be wholesale defections from the Divisive Dem's.

Hillary will just continue the wedge that has been driven years ago. You honestly think we as a country will ever be united? Man what the hell are you smoking, I'd sure love to be in your fantasy world. The country has been divided for years 9/11 was the one day everyone was united then 9/12/01 back to business as usual. I dont know where you come up with this idea that some magical candidate will unite the country but in reality that is not going to happen.
 
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