LuddlyNeddite
Banned
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- May 18, 2015
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The 2016 elections are no where near decided.
Hillary has a FORTY EIGHT percent lead over all republican candidates COMBINED.
Yes, the 2016 elections are decided, and only a deeply deluded republican would fail to see that
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
The 2016 elections are no where near decided.
They said the same thing about her in 2008. How did her presidency go then?
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
If that's what the article said, or if that's what the poll underlying the article said, then I agree with you at least to the extent that Hillary would be sitting in the catbird seat.
But neither the article nor the poll say anything of the sort.
Here's a link to the actual raw results of the poll mentioned in the article:
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll57-toplines.pdf
Scroll down to page 5.
You'll note that for Hillary Clinton 47% of likely voters polled would consider voting for her and and 51% would not consider voting for her.
Then look at Marco Rubio; 42% of likely voters polled would consider voting for him and and 50% would not consider voting for him.
If they were the two candidates it would be a pretty tight run race.
Clinton would get 47% of the voters right out the gate and Rubio would get 42%.
That's 89% of likely voters accounted for.
Let's next look at the voters who wouldn't consider voting for either candidate.
For Clinton, of those who wouldn't consider voting for her, only 7% would "somewhat" not consider her but 44% would "strongly" not consider her.
For Rubio, of those who wouldn't consider voting for him, 18% would "somewhat" not consider him but only 32% would "strongly" not consider him.
With Clinton, 80% of the people who don't like her really don't like her.
For Rubio only 60% of the people who don't like him really don't like him.
So let's assume for the sake of argument that, given only two candidates, each will pick up the votes of those who only somewhat dislike them.
Of the 11% of the vote that's still unaccounted for Rubio will get 40% of that (4.4%) and Clinton will pick up 20% (2.2%).
That puts Clinton at 49.2% and Rubio at 46.4% with 4.4% off voters still unaccounted for.
As you have to see by now, that does not, in any way, equate to a 48% Clinton lead over ALL likely Republican candidates.
And this is before things like actual campaigns, and investigations, and PACs, and debates, and GOTV drives, and the dispersion of the vote, and the electoral college come in to play.
Before any of those considerations, based solely on the raw numbers in this poll, and assuming all likely voters actually vote and the two candidates evenly split the 4.4% of voters we haven't yet accounts for, yes, Hillary wins.
But there's a big difference between being the frontrunner by 2.8% of the vote in a poll taken a year and a half before the election and being the shoe in you are assuming Clinton to be.
Has there been another election in history that was decided two years beforehand?
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
Hillary has a FORTY EIGHT percent lead over all republican candidates COMBINED.
Yes, the 2016 elections are decided, and only a deeply deluded republican would fail to see that
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
A little math lesson for you. If Hillary has a 48% lead over all the present potential Republican candidates, then 52% of the electorate would vote for someone else. Hillary loses by 4%.
Throw in all possible factors, and the election is up for grabs at present. It is not even certain at this poinr that she will be the candidate.
It's not a matter of if Hillary becomes president, but what her first act as President will be.
She has a 48 percent lead over ALL her republican challengers COMBINED. A FORTY EIGHT PERCENT LEAD!
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
To put that in perspective, Obama had about a five percent lead in October 2012.
So in the interest of knowledge, has any other US presidential election been decided two years beforehand, like the 2016 election will be?
Let me refresh everybody's memory here:
This article says that Hillary Clinton has a 48 percent LEAD over all gop candidates combined.
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
That doesn't mean she has 48 percent of the vote. She has a 48 percent LEAD
AKA, let's say she has 78 percent of the vote, and ALL HER OPPONENTS COMBINED have 30 percent
Does that change anybody's mind yet?
Whatever. Doesn't change the fact of the matter that it's very early in the campaigning cycle, and even before the primary's started, so pretty meaningless at this point, really.
Let me make this clear again.
Poll shows Americans not impressed with 2016 contenders - Adam B. Lerner - POLITICO
Hillary has 78 percent of the vote right now. EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN combined has 30 percent.
Get used to calling her "President Clinton" or "Madame President." Either one works
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