I suspect not. The new drachma would be worthless, and Greece would not be able to tap international credit markets. So how exactly would they pay for basic things like... fuel. Without fuel, the country cant run.. it is as simple as that. Add to that food and other things that the Greeks import. Car parts.. suddenly getting your car fixed goes up several hundred pro cent.. that is if you can afford buying gasoline of course.
Now the argument for the pro-Grexit people would be that, the Greek exports would become cheap.. yea that is true, but at the same time the imports would become extremely expensive. So only things produced in Greece would be affordable to locals, and this can cause problems in the short run. Also as someone above pointed out, Greece does not have a big export business. This can of course grow due its cheapness, but that takes time.. something that Greece does not have.
Another argument for the pro-Grexit people is that, yes but tourist would flock to Greece because it is so cheap. This is true, but would people really want to go to Greece, a country in social upheaval? Not to mention.. remember the first point.. fuel? How fun is it to be in a country where the power goes out? I mean there are cheap places to go in the Balkans, and yet you dont really see Romania and Bulgaria as hotspots for tourists do you? Now Greece has history and is historically a tourist hotspot, but we have seen how tourism has suffered in 2009-2012.. it has picked up some what, but no where near as it should have and suddenly because they have a new currency then it should explode? I dont think so.
But the fundamental problem for Greece is that just because they make a new currency, this does not mean that they dont still owe all that money away... they do. So you will see lawsuits in many countries going after Greek assets abroad.. we have seen that with Iran and Argentina. And then there is of course all the deposits in Greece.. they will be converted to the new currency, but chances are that the loans that locals have will still be in Euros... which causes even bigger problems. You have savings and income in New Drachma that is worthless, but you need to pay your mortgage in Euros. We saw what that did in Iceland.. 25% of the home owners over night went belly up.
So the argument for a New Drachma all boils down to one thing.. the ability to print money and pay locals in that money.. they cant buy anything with it, but at least they are getting paid right?
Greetings, PeteEU. :2wave:
Excellent post! :thumbs: I wasn't thinking as far ahead as you are, and reading your post was like opening a window on possible future problems for Greece. :shock: Focusing only on tourism, the recent ISIS massacre of vacationers in Tunisia is bound to cool tourism in many places around the globe, Greece included.
~ Focusing only on tourism, the recent ISIS massacre of vacationers in Tunisia is bound to cool tourism in many places around the globe, Greece included ~
--
Leadership requires difficult choices at times. Unfortunately, the Greek Prime Minister decided to punt on his leadership responsibilities by delegating what is a grave decision to the general public, who almost surely lack the details related to Greece's fiscal situation, the EU/ECB/IMF offer, and understanding of the consequences involved ~
What he promised was never possible, and led directly to the current crisis. This was foreseeable.
One of the problems Greece has had is that would be tourists end up paying extortionate airport taxes and costs when considering flying to Greece. If you look at hotel prices in Greece and Turkey, they are already quite cheap but the airplane and aircraft taxes take the costs very high. Flying to Spain and Portugal from the UK means less air flight time but the costs of hotels rises dramatically and the end result is holidays cost exactly the same whether you fly 1-2 hours to Spain or 7-8 hours to Greece.
I see his decision as carrying the people with him. Leadership does take difficult decisions but it also means you have to carry people with you sometimes. If the people choose to stay in the Euro then they will have to take the pain to make that happen; if they choose to exit, they need to know about the consequences.
If the UK was in such dire straits, I would want a say in such a national decision.
If that were to happen here, would the average guy on the street understand what's happening any better than the guy on the street in Greece? Human nature being what it is, I doubt it. People want to believe that politicians know best, since they are the leaders, so they leave the problem solving to them. Sometimes that works, and sometimes not, as the people of Greece are seeing firsthand. :shock:
I see his decision as carrying the people with him. Leadership does take difficult decisions but it also means you have to carry people with you sometimes. If the people choose to stay in the Euro then they will have to take the pain to make that happen; if they choose to exit, they need to know about the consequences.
If the UK was in such dire straits, I would want a say in such a national decision.
One of the problems Greece has had is that would be tourists end up paying extortionate airport taxes and costs when considering flying to Greece. If you look at hotel prices in Greece and Turkey, they are already quite cheap but the airplane and aircraft taxes take the costs very high. Flying to Spain and Portugal from the UK means less air flight time but the costs of hotels rises dramatically and the end result is holidays cost exactly the same whether you fly 1-2 hours to Spain or 7-8 hours to Greece.
I see his decision as carrying the people with him. Leadership does take difficult decisions but it also means you have to carry people with you sometimes. If the people choose to stay in the Euro then they will have to take the pain to make that happen; if they choose to exit, they need to know about the consequences.
If the UK was in such dire straits, I would want a say in such a national decision.
Unfortunately, think of poor old Papanderou and what might have been. He also wanted a referendum back in 2011, when creditors and fellow debtor nations may have been forced to concede if he had domestic support to push through with it. This is what Tsipras had to say then:
- See more at: What Tsipras Had Stated About the Greek Referendum in 2011 | GreekReporter.com
Huge difference in the two situations. Then: Papandreou was personally and intimately implicated in the creation of the crisis. This referendum isn't a 'harbinger of bankruptcy', it is a result of its inevitability, brought about not by any action of S¡Tsipras, Varafakis or Syriza, but of the criminal history of PASOK and Nea Demokratia - the very forces that are now presenting themselves as the voices of 'moderation'. You're comparing ouzo with retsina.
Have you done your remedial history study?
No need, We don't need our history "remedied", his assessment is reality-based. Look it up, I know it's an unfamiliar concept.
I suspect not. The new drachma would be worthless, and Greece would not be able to tap international credit markets. So how exactly would they pay for basic things like... fuel. Without fuel, the country cant run.. it is as simple as that. Add to that food and other things that the Greeks import. Car parts.. suddenly getting your car fixed goes up several hundred pro cent.. that is if you can afford buying gasoline of course.
Now the argument for the pro-Grexit people would be that, the Greek exports would become cheap.. yea that is true, but at the same time the imports would become extremely expensive. So only things produced in Greece would be affordable to locals, and this can cause problems in the short run. Also as someone above pointed out, Greece does not have a big export business. This can of course grow due its cheapness, but that takes time.. something that Greece does not have.
Another argument for the pro-Grexit people is that, yes but tourist would flock to Greece because it is so cheap. This is true, but would people really want to go to Greece, a country in social upheaval? Not to mention.. remember the first point.. fuel? How fun is it to be in a country where the power goes out? I mean there are cheap places to go in the Balkans, and yet you dont really see Romania and Bulgaria as hotspots for tourists do you? Now Greece has history and is historically a tourist hotspot, but we have seen how tourism has suffered in 2009-2012.. it has picked up some what, but no where near as it should have and suddenly because they have a new currency then it should explode? I dont think so.
But the fundamental problem for Greece is that just because they make a new currency, this does not mean that they dont still owe all that money away... they do. So you will see lawsuits in many countries going after Greek assets abroad.. we have seen that with Iran and Argentina. And then there is of course all the deposits in Greece.. they will be converted to the new currency, but chances are that the loans that locals have will still be in Euros... which causes even bigger problems. You have savings and income in New Drachma that is worthless, but you need to pay your mortgage in Euros. We saw what that did in Iceland.. 25% of the home owners over night went belly up.
So the argument for a New Drachma all boils down to one thing.. the ability to print money and pay locals in that money.. they cant buy anything with it, but at least they are getting paid right?
Excellent analysis, and this is the reality that the Greeks are facing. It's horrific, but in comparison with the alternative, isn't it inevitable? Caving into the Troika would defer this exact same scenario for what? Three months? Six? Twelve? The Troikas demanded measures are not new. They are the same measures that have been applied by Samaras, Pikrammenos, Papademos, Papandreou to what effect? The debt has increased under every premier, the unemployment rate risen, poverty increased. Why should anyone have any confidence that even if Tsipras conceded every point, that the Greek economy would ever turn around?
What do people really expect Greece to do? And what do they think Greece would benefit by doing so?
" ‘This is our political alternative to neoliberalism and to the neoliberal process of European integration: democracy, more democracy and even deeper democracy,” said Alexis Tsipras on 18 January 2014 in a debate organised by the Dutch Socialist party in Amersfoort. Now the moment of deepest democracy looms, as the Greek people go to the polls on Sunday to vote for or against the next round of austerity.
Unfortunately, Sunday’s choice will be between endless austerity and immediate chaos. As comfortable as it is to argue from the sidelines that maybe Grexit in the medium term won’t hurt as much as 30 years’ drag on GDP from swingeing repayments, no sane person wants either. The vision that Syriza swept to power on was that if you spoke truth to the troika plainly and in broad daylight, they would have to acknowledge that austerity was suffocating Greece.
They have acknowledged no such thing. Whatever else one could say about the handling of the crisis, and whatever becomes of the euro, Sunday will be the moment that unstoppable democracy meets immovable supra-democracy. The Eurogroup has already won: the Greek people can vote any way they like – but what they want, they cannot have..."
The moral crusade against Greece must be opposed | Zoe Williams | Comment is free | The Guardian
No, he was not. You are completely wrong, and uninformed.
Finance Minister/Foreign Minister 1989-1992. Cabinet member 2009. Prime Minister 2012-15.
A fact known to every member of the Troika throughout, and a fraud perpetrated by the people the Troika are now lining up to attempt a bloodless coup. Syriza didn't even exist when this fraud was perpetrated.They've been " fixing the Stats " ever since they entered the Union under false pretenses
Finance Minister/Foreign Minister 1989-1992. Cabinet member 2009. Prime Minister 2012-15.
Finance Minister/Foreign Minister 1989-1992. Cabinet member 2009. Prime Minister 2012-15.
Who've you been flying with? 7 hours to fly to Greece??? I flew Manchester - Rhodes two years ago in 4 hours.the end result is holidays cost exactly the same whether you fly 1-2 hours to Spain or 7-8 hours to Greece.
Quite. The current situation is a totally differnt one to that which pertained in January. Greeks need to decide which of the two routes they wish to pursue. If they vote 'yes', I've no doubt that Syriza will stand down and call new elections, and return to opposition, even if they remain the biggest party. The consequences for the Greek people will be no less severe whichever direction they take. What will be different is the impact on the Eurozone. Asian markets today have already given the Troika fair warning that their intransigence will impact as much on the Euro as on the Greeks. The Euro has fallen rapidly against the dollar on early trading.I see his decision as carrying the people with him. Leadership does take difficult decisions but it also means you have to carry people with you sometimes. If the people choose to stay in the Euro then they will have to take the pain to make that happen; if they choose to exit, they need to know about the consequences.
If the UK was in such dire straits, I would want a say in such a national decision.
I don't think our voters are as volatile as the Greeks, but you never know.
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