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Goldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic. The economists then expect a bounce back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%. They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis.
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!
People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!
Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.
That kind of decline is Great Depression levels. It’s too bad that the government eat its seed corn with lowering taxes over the years. We’d be able to pay firms to keep employees on the payroll and keep them home.Goldman sees unprecedented stop of economic activity, with Q2 GDP contracting 24%
This is very scary. Even scarier, is that they could still be underestimating the impacts. For example, if foreclosures start to surge. The company I work for, and have worked for over 15 years, has all of us working from home until at least April 3rd. I lead our DevOps group and am a Senior DevOps Engineer. I saw the layoffs during the Financial Crisis / Great Recession. This looks worse in many ways. It's like standing at the edge of an economic void. If we avoid another big financial crisis, the recovery will be much faster, but in the near term, this is literally Great Depression level economic contraction.
When we do get back in the office, I plan on personally talking to the CEO and telling him that in my opinion, if we have to do layoffs in a few months, it would be better to come to everyone and ask them to take a temporary pay cut than to lay people off in an economy that is in free fall.
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!
People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!
Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!
People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!
Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.Goldman sees unprecedented stop of economic activity, with Q2 GDP contracting 24%
This is very scary. Even scarier, is that they could still be underestimating the impacts. For example, if foreclosures start to surge. The company I work for, and have worked for over 15 years, has all of us working from home until at least April 3rd. I lead our DevOps group and am a Senior DevOps Engineer. I saw the layoffs during the Financial Crisis / Great Recession. This looks worse in many ways. It's like standing at the edge of an economic void. If we avoid another big financial crisis, the recovery will be much faster, but in the near term, this is literally Great Depression level economic contraction.
When we do get back in the office, I plan on personally talking to the CEO and telling him that in my opinion, if we have to do layoffs in a few months, it would be better to come to everyone and ask them to take a temporary pay cut than to lay people off in an economy that is in free fall.
:lamoAll Charmin and Brawny products will now be shipped to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing......
I think it's going to be a deep 'v' of sorts, but more like a 'check mark'.I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.
GOP Senators with inside knowledge sold their stock in service industries a
I'm not saying it will be spontaneous; there will be some early birds (I've already planned which brewpub I'm visiting firs.I hope your right, the problem is we don't want a lot of companies going under in the meantime. The economy has literally come to a halt (other than groceries). Even during the Great Recession, it wasn't even remotely this swift of a contraction. This could create major cash flow issues for small to mid-sized companies in the near term.
Not just GOP senators. The old hag Diane Feinstein did as well.
Yes, and amazingly low point in the history of the chamber ...Not just GOP senators. The old hag Diane Feinstein did as well.
I think it's going to be a deep 'v' of sorts, but more like a 'check mark'.
:cheers: <--- real ones will be betterThat's probably pretty accurate. Once a few jump in and get rolling more conservative types will join. After a long period of "house arrest" I'm guessing that the restaurants and bars that manage to open will do well and that will encourage more to jump in - resulting in the Chomsky Checkmark economic expansion.
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.
I'm not saying it will be spontaneous; there will be some early birds (I've already planned which brewpub I'm visiting firs.) business owners may extend themselves to hire staff hoping the customers will come.
That is a rather rosy scenario, but the reality may turn out to be quite different. For your "shift into neutral" (or as some say "hitting the pause button") idea to actually play out (without a hitch) assumes that suppliers were paid for any perishable inventory (which is no longer sellable) and all of that is then replaced, business real estate/equipment rent/lease payments (including utility bills) were made and the same experienced workers remain available for immediate reinstatement - all having been paid for with no business income for however long this government mandtated "interruption" ends up lasting.
The travel and hospitality industry will be absolutely devastated no matter what happens.
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