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Goldman sees unprecedented stop in economic activity, with 2nd quarter GDP contracting 24%

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Goldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic. The economists then expect a bounce back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%. They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis.

Goldman sees unprecedented stop of economic activity, with Q2 GDP contracting 24%

This is very scary. Even scarier, is that they could still be underestimating the impacts. For example, if foreclosures start to surge. The company I work for, and have worked for over 15 years, has all of us working from home until at least April 3rd. I lead our DevOps group and am a Senior DevOps Engineer. I saw the layoffs during the Financial Crisis / Great Recession. This looks worse in many ways. It's like standing at the edge of an economic void. If we avoid another big financial crisis, the recovery will be much faster, but in the near term, this is literally Great Depression level economic contraction.

When we do get back in the office, I plan on personally talking to the CEO and telling him that in my opinion, if we have to do layoffs in a few months, it would be better to come to everyone and ask them to take a temporary pay cut than to lay people off in an economy that is in free fall.
 
Yes, SouthernDemocrat, it could be as bad or worse than that.
 
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!

People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!

Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.
 
BBC is saying Britain might be shut down for a year.

Even if America powers back up, which I expect, we'll have to drag the rest of the world along with us.
 
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!

People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!

Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.

yea you would think johnson and johnson would be in good shape nope.

i agree though this whole thing has been an exercise in stupid and what mass panic can do.
 
If our unemployment number reaches 20% then it's over, we're officially in a depression. With all the restaurants, bars and malls closing down, there could be a million new unemployment filings next week alone.
 
Goldman sees unprecedented stop of economic activity, with Q2 GDP contracting 24%

This is very scary. Even scarier, is that they could still be underestimating the impacts. For example, if foreclosures start to surge. The company I work for, and have worked for over 15 years, has all of us working from home until at least April 3rd. I lead our DevOps group and am a Senior DevOps Engineer. I saw the layoffs during the Financial Crisis / Great Recession. This looks worse in many ways. It's like standing at the edge of an economic void. If we avoid another big financial crisis, the recovery will be much faster, but in the near term, this is literally Great Depression level economic contraction.

When we do get back in the office, I plan on personally talking to the CEO and telling him that in my opinion, if we have to do layoffs in a few months, it would be better to come to everyone and ask them to take a temporary pay cut than to lay people off in an economy that is in free fall.
That kind of decline is Great Depression levels. It’s too bad that the government eat its seed corn with lowering taxes over the years. We’d be able to pay firms to keep employees on the payroll and keep them home.
 
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!

People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!

Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.

All Charmin and Brawny products will now be shipped to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing......
 
The economy at full stop during a viral outbreak...imagine that!

People need to take this economic panic crap and shove it...SIDEWAYS!

Yes...the numbers are going to be down for a while. But afterwards, things will pick up again. Factories will re-open. Stuff will get made again. People will go out and buy them. Until then, chill the **** out and quit acting as if the world's ending. One thing's for sure, whoever owns the brand names "Charmin", "Brawny", "Pinesol" and "Clorox" are going to have very good numbers come next quarter.

You’d be saying just the opposite if Hillary was the president, Roadvirus. Pretty soon, you’ll be blaming the estimated -24% GDP in the 2nd qtr on Obama. Oh wait, trump did that today in his presser that caused the DJIA to further crash.

GOP Senators with inside knowledge sold their stock in service industries and bought stock in healthcare industries before the market crashed. THEY KNEW what was coming with the CORONAvirus.

trump owns every last negative number and situation that comes out of this, just as you and your ilk did to Obama. Getting rid of Obama’s Pandemic team out of sheer hatred was an epic blunder. I don’t appreciate my life being put in further danger because trump wanted to keep his numbers low.
 
Goldman sees unprecedented stop of economic activity, with Q2 GDP contracting 24%

This is very scary. Even scarier, is that they could still be underestimating the impacts. For example, if foreclosures start to surge. The company I work for, and have worked for over 15 years, has all of us working from home until at least April 3rd. I lead our DevOps group and am a Senior DevOps Engineer. I saw the layoffs during the Financial Crisis / Great Recession. This looks worse in many ways. It's like standing at the edge of an economic void. If we avoid another big financial crisis, the recovery will be much faster, but in the near term, this is literally Great Depression level economic contraction.

When we do get back in the office, I plan on personally talking to the CEO and telling him that in my opinion, if we have to do layoffs in a few months, it would be better to come to everyone and ask them to take a temporary pay cut than to lay people off in an economy that is in free fall.
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.
 
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.
I think it's going to be a deep 'v' of sorts, but more like a 'check mark'.
 
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.

I hope your right, the problem is we don't want a lot of companies going under in the meantime. The economy has literally come to a halt (other than groceries). Even during the Great Recession, it wasn't even remotely this swift of a contraction. This could create major cash flow issues for small to mid-sized companies in the near term.
 
If you are saying the rest of the world will have to start importing our products, then I am 100% for that! If they do not want to product product and the american people have an appetite to buy, they will buy someone else's product.
 
GOP Senators with inside knowledge sold their stock in service industries a

Not just GOP senators. The old hag Diane Feinstein did as well.
 
Wow, like anyone need goldman sax to tell us that. How difficult of a prediction is this? I am wondering if goldman is predicting what will happen 6 months from today. Now that would be interesting? I am not an expert by any means, but I am a typical american who wants to get back to work. I can't wait to get back to work and I can't wait to work overtime to get everything back to normal as quickly as possible. If I am like most other people, then I am betting this will be a V shaped recession and it wil be the shortest as well as the deepest event in our history.
 
I hope your right, the problem is we don't want a lot of companies going under in the meantime. The economy has literally come to a halt (other than groceries). Even during the Great Recession, it wasn't even remotely this swift of a contraction. This could create major cash flow issues for small to mid-sized companies in the near term.
I'm not saying it will be spontaneous; there will be some early birds (I've already planned which brewpub I'm visiting firs. :cool:) business owners may extend themselves to hire staff hoping the customers will come.
 
Not just GOP senators. The old hag Diane Feinstein did as well.

I’ve stated very clearly in several posts that she should be expelled by the Democratic party. What the three corrupt gop senators did was far worse. **** them. We’ll turn them out at the polls.
 
I think it's going to be a deep 'v' of sorts, but more like a 'check mark'.

That's probably pretty accurate. Once a few jump in and get rolling more conservative types will join. After a long period of "house arrest" I'm guessing that the restaurants and bars that manage to open will do well and that will encourage more to jump in - resulting in the Chomsky Checkmark economic expansion. :cool:
 
That's probably pretty accurate. Once a few jump in and get rolling more conservative types will join. After a long period of "house arrest" I'm guessing that the restaurants and bars that manage to open will do well and that will encourage more to jump in - resulting in the Chomsky Checkmark economic expansion. :cool:
:cheers: <--- real ones will be better
 
I think we may see a rather rapid comeback. Most recessions are caused by glitches in the economy itself. This one is being driven by exterior forces. We have businesses shifted in the neutral and workers sidelined but ready to work. I think that after these "shelter in place" restriction are relaxed stir-crazy people are going to go out to bars, clubs restaurants. There will be a lot of pent-up demand companies will be competing to fill. It won't be overnight, of course.

That is a rather rosy scenario, but the reality may turn out to be quite different. For your "shift into neutral" (or as some say "hitting the pause button") idea to actually play out (without a hitch) assumes that suppliers were paid for any perishable inventory (which is no longer sellable) and all of that is then replaced, business real estate/equipment rent/lease payments (including utility bills) were made and the same experienced workers remain available for immediate reinstatement - all having been paid for with no business income for however long this government mandtated "interruption" ends up lasting.
 
I'm not saying it will be spontaneous; there will be some early birds (I've already planned which brewpub I'm visiting firs. :cool:) business owners may extend themselves to hire staff hoping the customers will come.

There is just a lot of uncertainty though. For one, if this goes on for very long, there will be a classic thrift paradox, but one that a Keynesian Stimulus will not be very effective against because even if you put more money in people's hands, they can't spend it. We also run the risk of exposing issues in the financial sector, and having another financial crisis if foreclosures spike. Then there is the problem of having to go through this again in a few months if cases start to spike again, and of course, lastly, with countries all over the world borrowing a ton of money to stimulate their economies, it may not be so cheap for our government to borrow money.

I am normally a very optimistic person, but this could be Depression era level painful in the short term before our economy rebounds.
 
That is a rather rosy scenario, but the reality may turn out to be quite different. For your "shift into neutral" (or as some say "hitting the pause button") idea to actually play out (without a hitch) assumes that suppliers were paid for any perishable inventory (which is no longer sellable) and all of that is then replaced, business real estate/equipment rent/lease payments (including utility bills) were made and the same experienced workers remain available for immediate reinstatement - all having been paid for with no business income for however long this government mandtated "interruption" ends up lasting.

The travel and hospitality industry will be absolutely devastated no matter what happens.
 
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