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Global warming debunked

jujuman13

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I find it strange that someone, anyone can make a proposal and almost automatically the majority seize the idea and extol it as their sincere belief, usually without having any knowledge of what they are talking about.

Link.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaruherald/4064691a6571.html

Personally I find this article to be more illuminating.
Mankind cannot control the weather, so what Mr. A. Gore proposes is to suggest that humanity is doing just that.
I am not a scientist, I read articles in favour of Mr. Gore, I read articles debunking his ideas, to simply blindly accept his point of view as being the definitive is foolish.
 
Any other articles on this? I mean... an article off a site that has numerous ads doesn't seen quite reliable in my opinion.

But, if what this scientist has said is true, and the countless others that disagree are wrong, then maybe we shouldn't do anything about greenhouse gases.

Again, as always, human beings will not do anything to prevent a problem, until the problem effects them. I still don't understand why, just to be on the safe side, we do not take action with this current situation. In the LONG RUN, our economies would benefit from it and we would stop using so much oil (thus preventing the need for pointless wars...)

My two cents.
 
Good old Augie Auer of the New Zealand Met Service. How do debunk him? Quite easily. Start at the beginning. Read the article, which is quite politicized in the tradition of the Fox Noise Channel here in the US (by this time, a red light should be going off in the head of any reasonable person), then go over each of the following points:

1) First of all, what is the New Zealand Meteorological Service? Although originally a government-owned enterprise, it is now a service for its media, aviation, and energy company businesses - Whats the word? Yea, a shill. Says so right on their web site.

2) What about Augie Auer himself? Used to be a weatherman on TV3 in New Zealand until he was fired. Went on to become the head of guess where? Yup, the New Zealand Met Service (See point number 1). Regarded as a crackpot by the mainstream scientific community.

3) As for Augie Auer's science? Smoke and mirrors, omitting information that would disprove his theory if he used it, and easily debunked, right here.

4) What about the science of global warming itself? The most respected scientific organization in the world on the subject is the Woodshole Oceanographic Institute. Here is their section on global warming and here is their section on abrupt climate change. Let me add that these are real scientists, not former weathermen who got fired and went on to head organizations run for the benefit of energy companies.

5) Here are some videos of lectures (made by real scientists from all over the world, not former weathermen who got fired and went on to head organizations run for the benefit of energy companies) from the University of Washington's Research Channel:

A Changing Landscape: Investigating a Warming Arctic

A Warmer Pacific Northwest: Lessons from the Past


Effect of Global Climate Change on Northwest Forests, Part 1


Effect of Global Climate Change on Northwest Forests, Part 2


Forests Aflame: Strategies and Challenges for Managing Fire in the West


Investigating a Warming Arctic: A Conversation (long)


North Pole Environmental Observatory


Policy and Ethics in Science and Engineering


Research Frontiers - Hatfield Marine Science Center


Science and Society: The Role of the Research University


Sea of Microbes


Spin Cycle: How the Media Portrays Climate Change


Storytelling in Science: Honesty, Imagination and Ethics


The Changing Arctic


The Ends of the World: Astrobiology and Armageddon


The Hurricane-Climate Connection


The Science of Global Warming


Whatever Happened to Ethics and Civility? (110)




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Any other articles on this? I mean... an article off a site that has numerous ads doesn't seen quite reliable in my opinion.
There are other sources that will confirm the information here. As to your statement that sites with ads aren't credible... that would mean the Wallstreet Journal, New York Times, London Times, and Le Monde aren't credible. Frankly, it's a silly statement because most newspapers in the world have ads. It is how they fund themselves primarily.

however, I would say that the opinions in the article are nothing more then opinions... and the article is doing little more then reporting what someone said.

But, if what this scientist has said is true, and the countless others that disagree are wrong, then maybe we shouldn't do anything about greenhouse gases.
If greenhouse gases aren't a problem then you don't need to worry about them.

that does not however relate to toxic cases that many countries emit.

Again, as always, human beings will not do anything to prevent a problem, until the problem effects them. I still don't understand why, just to be on the safe side, we do not take action with this current situation. In the LONG RUN, our economies would benefit from it and we would stop using so much oil (thus preventing the need for pointless wars...)
I think you're oversimplifying complex issues to the point where they've confused you.

The only war I know of that was about Oil was Saddam's war against Kuwait. You can claim the US war against Saddam was about oil, but you'll just be parroting a political slogan with no real truth behind it.


that said, there are a lot of degenerate countries that are allowed to get rich off of their oil deposits... and hte world would probably be a better place if they didn't have that money. However, it should be noted that we don't have a viable alternative to oil at this point.


Solar and wind power won't power cars, trucks, ships, trains, or planes. Chemical batteries are expensive, don't hold enough power, discharge too slowly, are too heavy/bulky, and are EXTREMELY TOXIC when disposed of. In fact, hybrid cars are WORSE for the environment then typical cars are... If you actually examine the situation there's no way you can say otherwise.

Hydrogen powered cars suffer from much the same problems that hybrids suffer from only worse... they have LESS power because hydrogen engines output much less power at a slower rate then do combustion engines. They're also very heavy and bulky.

Biofuels while a nice way to recycle aren't really any better for the environment then anything else no matter how you look at it. And what's more there isn't enough bio fuel to power any economy or transit network unless it was specifically cultivated to be biofuel... which means you're not recycling any more. When you take into consideration the tractors, the water, the pesticides, etc etc of a cultivated biofuel system it's not very good for the environment either.



I can go on and on... but the point is that this tech isn't up to the problem. Neither can you say 'we need to cut back'... cutting back means you get paid less. It means you have less money... it means the government has less money (if you're a socialist, then that might mean something to you)... in poorer countries it will mean that people will starve or die because they can't afford medicine. It also means there will be less money for investment and research... It will be bad all round.



The one tech that looks promising to me is nano capacitors. A capacitor is vessel for storing an electric charge between two plates that are insulated from each other. Capacitors are great for a few reasons. One they can charge and discharge almost instantly their entire power load. The current problem with electric engines in cars is not that electric engines are weak but that the batteries can't feed power to them fast enough to get respectable acceleration. This also means that unlike batteries which take HOURS to charge because they store power chemically, a capacitor could charge basically as fast as the station can feed power to it. So you could charge your capacitor up in a couple minutes or perhaps a few seconds depending on how fast they wanted to feed power to your capacitor. The primary reason you'd want to slow that down a bit is to prevent dangerous arching or magnetic fields. You could be dealing with power line level charges plugged directly into your car.

The limitation of capacitors has always been their capacity... that is how "much" they could store which was generally pretty low. The limitation of storage however is based upon the surface area of the capacitor. Much like the human lung's ability to absorb is based upon it's internal surface area. The human lung has a LOT of surface area... I think it's something like 40 square meters or something like that... which it accomplishes by having a mesh of highly articulated fibrous tissue that is designed to expose as much blood as possible to the air at any given point. The Human lung is articulated down to the microscopic level... Likewise, a nano capacitor is articulated down to the microscopic level. That allows for greatly increased capacity. In fact, such capacitors already have greater capacity then our finest chemical batteries.


Taken all together you get a device that can store more power then a battery, discharge/recharge almost instantly, won't wear out from use, and probably won't be especially toxic... it will be made out of metals and metals are never very environmentally friendly... but they won't be in the highly reactive and corrosive types that batteries must have...


There are some other techs out there that are also interesting... one of htem is a compressed air system that I think the french are selling to the Indians... hte idea being that the car runs on compressed air... that would probably be fine for most cars especially in a city... but that won't work for trucks, trains, boats, or planes.


Ultimately planes are going to have to run on bio fuel if they can't get petroleum. But I don't think that's going to be a problem for several hundred years at least. Ships might be able to run on massive nano capacitors stored in their hulls as the energy density is comparable to fuel... The same can be said of trains and trucks.
 
You bloody liberal commie treehugger terrorist loving jew hating muslim lover Danarhea.. how dare you expose a "hero" of the right? :mrgreen:

btw did I miss any of the usual right wing slurs?
 
You bloody liberal commie treehugger terrorist loving jew hating muslim lover Danarhea.. how dare you expose a "hero" of the right? :mrgreen:

btw did I miss any of the usual right wing slurs?
Sure... you forgot, Neo-Luddite twit. ;)
 
Moderator's Warning:
Thread moved. All threads pertaining to Global Warming must reside in the E&CI forum.
 
“Again, as always, human beings will not do anything to prevent a problem, until the problem effects them. I still don't understand why, just to be on the safe side, we do not take action with this current situation. In the LONG RUN, our economies would benefit from it and we would stop using so much oil (thus preventing the need for pointless wars...)”

Paradox?

As I understand it, the current policy of the Bush Administration is to take preemptive action to stop terrorism before it affects us… (Perhaps just to be on the safe side?)
This policy is remains open for debate…

Seems to me humans are taking action in this matter. The search for alternative fuel sources continues, the general public is becoming more and more enlightened as it relates to our impact on the planet and governments are beginning to enact policy as it relates. So, who is not taking action? Just because a person chooses to use multiple sheets upon completion of a relief transaction does not make them less aware of global issues.

This issue is worth debate…sound reasonable debate, not hysterical banter packed with veiled attacks upon entities of whom we don’t care for.
 
I find it strange that someone, anyone can make a proposal and almost automatically the majority seize the idea and extol it as their sincere belief, usually without having any knowledge of what they are talking about.

Link.
Global warming debunked - Local News - The Timaru Herald

Personally I find this article to be more illuminating.
Mankind cannot control the weather, so what Mr. A. Gore proposes is to suggest that humanity is doing just that.
I am not a scientist, I read articles in favour of Mr. Gore, I read articles debunking his ideas, to simply blindly accept his point of view as being the definitive is foolish.

Boy, all those scientists at the National Academy of Sciences, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Society, the IPCC, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and virtually every major scientific society in the modern world with expertise in Climate sure are stupid.:roll:

The problem is that we are releasing CO2 into the atmosphere at approximately 50 times the natural rate. Moreover, there is a direct correlation between increased economic activity since the industrial era, carbon emissions, and increased global temperatures.

Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Image:Carbon Dioxide 400kyr-2.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Image:Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I am always astounded when people think that something occurred to them or some two bit meteorologist on a little island, that has not occurred to the vast, vast, majority of scientists who have studied this issue, including the most well respected scientific societies on earth
 
the link between human activity and global warming has not been made. What's more there is a great deal of evidence to back up that we're going through a natural shift that is largely ignored.


As to your temperature graphs, those are extremely complicated system they're attempting to model with a single variable. Many scientists don't think such things are valid especially as you go back in time and the means by which you cite the global temperature of thousands of years ago becomes increasingly suspect.

Especially such things are questionable when you consider that we've seen much more melting in the past then we have seen so far... and yet at the same time these "global" temperature models say the world was colder at a time when there was more melting.


It's not consistent. I don't blame it for being inconsistent, it's a very difficult thing to model.
 
the link between human activity and global warming has not been made.

Tell that to the IPCC whose latest report (a very conservative one as no industrialized nation has anything to gain from carbon caps) found the link to between human activity and current and projected warming to be a virtual certainty. We are talking about over 3000 of the world’s best scientists representing virtually every nation on earth, each being pressured by their governments to be as conservative as possible in their assessments, and still in their latest assessment, after evaluating all the studies, all the peer reviewed science, they found the link between human activity and climatic warming to be a virtual certainty.

Panel Issues Bleak Report on Climate Change - New York Times

What's more there is a great deal of evidence to back up that we're going through a natural shift that is largely ignored.

What are these natural climatic forcing agents that explain our current warming? Where is a correlation between them and our current warming?

I am sure you will come back with solar forcing. The problem with that argument is that the stratosphere is cooling even though the earth's surface and lower atmosphere is warming. This is consistent with greenhouse effect warming, and makes warming due to solar forcing a near physical impossibility as solar forcing would result in warming at all levels of the atmosphere.

Final Report of Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1

As to the actual subject of the thread. The New Scientist has a great article on this issue and the misinformation being propagated about it. Here is an excerpt:

Half-truth: Human carbon dioxide emissions are tiny compared with natural sources

YES, it's true that CO2 emissions due to human activity are small compared with most natural sources. Yet ice cores show that levels in the atmosphere have remained fairly steady at between 180 and 300 parts per million for the past half-million years, only to shoot up to more than 380 ppm since the industrial age began.

How is this possible? The answer is that natural sources are balanced by natural sinks (see above). The breakdown of organic matter, for instance, releases huge quantities of CO2, but growing plants soak up just as much. CO2 levels have risen because slightly more of the gas has been entering the atmosphere each year than can be soaked up by natural sinks.

How can we be sure that we are responsible for the extra CO2? There are several lines of evidence. For instance, fossil fuels contain virtually no carbon-14, because this unstable isotope, formed when cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, has a half-life of around 6000 years. Nearly all the carbon-14 in a fossil fuel will have long decayed by the time we burn the fuel, so the resulting CO2 will contain almost no carbon-14 too. Studies of tree rings have shown that the proportion of carbon-14 in the air dropped by about 2 per cent between 1850 and 1954 (after 1954, nuclear tests released large amounts of carbon-14).

Finally, claims that volcanoes emit more CO2 than human activities are simply not true. CO2 levels around the world do not rise after major eruptions. Total emissions from volcanoes on land are estimated to average just 0.3 gigatonnes of CO2 each year - about a hundredth of human emissions - and are balanced by the carbon carried under tectonic plates in subducted ocean sediments.

Read more here. I think it will more than address the rest of the points you brought up.

http://environment.newscientist.com...the-7-biggest-myths-about-climate-change.html

The fact is, you will not find more than a handful of reputable scientists in the industrialized world who dispute the basic science behind Anthropogenic Global Warming. The science behind this issue is just that strong.

Whether we can actually do anything to mitigate it is another debate altogether.
 
Tell that to the IPCC
The UN's reports are controversial.

We are talking about over 3000 of the world’s best scientists representing virtually every nation on earth, each being pressured by their governments to be as conservative as possible in their assessments, and still in their latest assessment, after evaluating all the studies, all the peer reviewed science, they found the link between human activity and climatic warming to be a virtual certainty.
This is false. The number 3000 includes everyone involved in the project which includes aids, government officials, and even people that disagreed with the findings of the report.


Anyone that showed up pretty much had their name added to the list regardless of what they said or did. Some in fact sued to have their names removed as the UN was not willing to do without threat of legal action.




What are these natural climatic forcing agents that explain our current warming? Where is a correlation between them and our current warming?
principely solar activity. Solar radiation is higher now then in any other period in human observation. This is judged largely in the past from the citing of sun spots which accompany increased solar activity.


It should be noted that not only is the Earth warming but so is mars... it's ice caps are melting.

I am sure you will come back with solar forcing. The problem with that argument is that the stratosphere is cooling even though the earth's surface and lower atmosphere is warming. This is consistent with greenhouse effect warming, and makes warming due to solar forcing a near physical impossibility as solar forcing would result in warming at all levels of the atmosphere.
I'm not sure the data matches green house models either as the middle of the atmosphere is supposed to warm hte most under that model.


So both models are wrong and something else is happening or an unknown force is skewing the data. Which may or may not include the mechanism by which scientists choose to weigh the data.



The fact is, you will not find more than a handful of reputable scientists in the industrialized world who dispute the basic science behind Anthropogenic Global Warming. The science behind this issue is just that strong.
There are also very strong political factors in place that award funding, punish discent, and demonize those that break with the central line.

that all by itself could account for much of that body. Consider how many scientists would be out of a job if global warming as a concept were fully debunked? Funding in the US alone went from a few million to climate science to tens of billions... all driven by global warming.

What's more as I said above, many areas of the world have been much warmer. Syberian perma frost for example has melted quiet a bit more in the past then it has in recent times making it clear that that part of the world has been warmer. Additionally, wine was grown in England during the medeviel warm period... which was supposidly cooler then it is now... even though those same areas are not capable of sustaining vinards. Certainly there are issues of continental drift so we can't go back too far... but we find such things only a few hundred to thousand years back, which is too soon for such thing to be relevant.


Additionally, and I've said this before the whole thing is very complicated especially the process by which you turn such a large and complex issue into a single variable. You have to mix and match thousands of information sources to do something like that over a long period of time and they make a point of discarding any aberrant data... meaning that any data that contradicts what they believe the answer should be or should be close to... is discarded.


That mechanism if not properly watched can predetermine results. And given everything else I'm not convinced that that has not contributed to the results.
Whether we can actually do anything to mitigate it is another debate altogether.
A large part of my problem with the concept is that it is deeply involved in politics. It is USED by certain groups that find the notion of something like Global Warming to be valuable to their long term ideological goals which happen to be contrary to my own. The fact that Al Gore has pushed this issue so hard has not helped the movement so much as polarized it.


As such, so long as GW is used by such people as a tool, I will treat it as a weapon in the hands of my enemy. If they put it down and it's allowed to operate free of such things then I'll reduce the heat... but otherwise the political realities of human society force me to regard the concept hostility..

I do not deny that our current technology has problems and I do want them fixed. To that end I want more nuclear power and a new type of portable power system to be made practical. However, until such time it is not practical to get rid of the existing system. Batteries that drive electric motors are NOT powerful enough to replace petroleum combustion engines. What's more environmentally they're if anything more harmful as batteries create enormous amounts of toxic waste when being built and then disposed of.


As I may have said else where my personal preference is for something like the nano capacitor which is neither very toxic nor limited by the chemical processes that regulate the speed at which a battery can store or discharge power. A nano capacitor can recharge almost instantly and discharge almost instantly while at the same time holding more power then existing chemical batteries. Additionally unlike chemical batteries they do not degenerate but instead can be used almost indefinitely. Their ability to discharge power so quickly makes them ideal for cars and trucks as such craft need lots of energy for acceleration. Their ability to recharge quickly is also nice as it means that you could charge your cell up in anything from a few seconds to a few minutes determined almost entirely by safety factors.
 
The UN's reports are controversial.

Only with the handful of deniers out there and some ideological interest groups. In the scientific community, the IPCC is considered the most respected authority on the subject of Climate Change. Moreover, unlike the propaganda sites out there like the appropriately named JunkScience.com -- Steven Milloy, Publisher, IPCC reports are peer reviewed.

This is false. The number 3000 includes everyone involved in the project which includes aids, government officials, and even people that disagreed with the findings of the report.
You are somewhat correct in that it does include aids and officials. There were approximately 700 actual scientists who were directly involved in authoring the assessments and the peer review process.

principely solar activity. Solar radiation is higher now then in any other period in human observation. This is judged largely in the past from the citing of sun spots which accompany increased solar activity.
I am sorry, but you are misinformed. Solar activity has actually declined for several years now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png

Just the same, you are missing the point. If solar forcing were a causative factor in our current warming, then the stratosphere would be warming in proportion to warming in the lower atmosphere and surface. Yet, the stratosphere is cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse effect forcing, and makes solar forcing a near physical impossibility. This is why the vast, vast, vast majority of the scientific community has ruled out solar forcing as a major factor in our current warming.

It should be noted that not only is the Earth warming but so is mars... it's ice caps are melting.
You are buying into the propaganda. One has nothing to do with the other. Mars is warming due to Dust Storms. See: Mars Warming Due to Dust Storms, Study Finds

The earth is warming due to greenhouse effect warming.

I'm not sure the data matches green house models either as the middle of the atmosphere is supposed to warm hte most under that model.


So both models are wrong and something else is happening or an unknown force is skewing the data. Which may or may not include the mechanism by which scientists choose to weigh the data.
Read the assessment I linked to in my previous post. The lower atmosphere is warming, the models for greenhouse effect warming are very consistent compared to any other plausible explanation.

There are also very strong political factors in place that award funding, punish discent, and demonize those that break with the central line.

that all by itself could account for much of that body. Consider how many scientists would be out of a job if global warming as a concept were fully debunked? Funding in the US alone went from a few million to climate science to tens of billions... all driven by global warming.
The American Enterprise Institute is offering scientists $10,000 for any article they write that tries to debunk Anthropogenic Global Warming. How much do you think that right wing think tanks and industry groups would pay scientists to conduct research that challenges the consensus? The money is out there for any scientist who wants to challenge the consensus. The problem is the science just isn’t there to do so. The fact is, the few deniers out there have published nothing what so ever in any peer reviewed journals to support their assertions. Nothing at all.

What's more as I said above, many areas of the world have been much warmer. Syberian perma frost for example has melted quiet a bit more in the past then it has in recent times making it clear that that part of the world has been warmer. Additionally, wine was grown in England during the medeviel warm period... which was supposidly cooler then it is now... even though those same areas are not capable of sustaining vinards. Certainly there are issues of continental drift so we can't go back too far... but we find such things only a few hundred to thousand years back, which is too soon for such thing to be relevant.
You are buying into the propaganda. Wine has always been grown in England. Wine is grown in England today. Instead of going by the propaganda being put out by ideological and interest groups, look at the peer reviewed science behind this issue. For example, a glacial study found that we are warmer today than in at least 5000 years.

Here is an excerpt:

Researchers studying ancient tropical ice cores have found evidence of two abrupt climate shifts -- one 5000 years ago and one currently underway. The findings, published in the current issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, may have important implications for immediate future since more than two-thirds of the world's population resides in the tropics.

Using chronological climate records retrieved from seven locations in the South American Andes and the Asian Himalayas, researchers from Ohio State University's Byrd Polar Research Center, the University of Texas; the University of Connecticut, and the University of Louisville found evidence that a massive climate shift to a cooler regime occurred just over 5,000 years ago, followed by a rapid reversal to much warmer temperatures in the last 50 years.

The scientists also say that most of the high-altitude glaciers in the planet's tropical regions are rapidly melting and will likely disappear in the near future. Glaciers and ice caps are retreating even in areas where precipitation is increasing suggesting that increasing temperatures and not decreasing precipitation as the most likely culprit behind the decline.

The researchers' records show that the past 50 years have been unusually warm.

"There hasn't been anything in the record like it – not even the [Medieval Warm Period 700 to 1000 years ago] ," said Lonnie Thompson, professor of geological sciences at Ohio State. "The fact that the isotope values in the last 50 years have been so unusual means that things are dramatically changing. That's the real story here."

Further, the emergence of 5,000 to 6,500 year old wetland plants around the margin of the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, suggests that temperatures there are higher than any time in the past 5000 years.
Read more here: http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0627-glaciers.html

I do agree with you on more nuclear power though.
 
Only with the handful of deniers out there and some ideological interest groups. In the scientific community, the IPCC is considered the most respected authority on the subject of Climate Change. Moreover, unlike the propaganda sites out there like the appropriately named JunkScience.com -- Steven Milloy, Publisher, IPCC reports are peer reviewed.
The conclusion of the report was not peer reviewed. Portions of it were but it was changed by political figures, government officials, etc. Furthermore, as I've said they tend to claim that anyone that comes with in poking distance of them is a contributer when in fact they are not.

You are somewhat correct in that it does include aids and officials. There were approximately 700 actual scientists who were directly involved in authoring the assessments and the peer review process.
Indeed, and what portion of those scientists agreed with the findings? What was their contribution?


Your number will shrink... and even then you must consider that the final conclusions were not peer reviewed so the whole report is really not as reliable or credible as you think it is...

I am sorry, but you are misinformed. Solar activity has actually declined for several years now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png
That still doesn't explain why the caps on mars are melting. I've heard something about dust storms causing it but I find it hard to believe there isn't an external trigger for that... what's more if that is what is causing warming on mars then why could not something similar be the cause on earth? Perhaps a decline in the number of clouds?


Just the same, you are missing the point. If solar forcing were a causative factor in our current warming, then the stratosphere would be warming in proportion to warming in the lower atmosphere and surface. Yet, the stratosphere is cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse effect forcing, and makes solar forcing a near physical impossibility. This is why the vast, vast, vast majority of the scientific community has ruled out solar forcing as a major factor in our current warming.
No, green house effect would cause warming in the middle of the atmosphere not the surface.

in any event I'm not sure either theory is completely correct as they tend to be poor at predicting things.

You are buying into the propaganda. One has nothing to do with the other. Mars is warming due to Dust Storms. See: Mars Warming Due to Dust Storms, Study Finds

The earth is warming due to greenhouse effect warming.
So you say, I am not a scientist and I see a lot of people that aren't scientists with political axes to grind putting their hands on the shoulders of the scientists talking... so I have a very hard time not using my own judgment flawed as it might be...


The American Enterprise Institute is offering scientists $10,000 for any article they write that tries to debunk Anthropogenic Global Warming. How much do you think that right wing think tanks and industry groups would pay scientists to conduct research that challenges the consensus? The money is out there for any scientist who wants to challenge the consensus. The problem is the science just isn’t there to do so. The fact is, the few deniers out there have published nothing what so ever in any peer reviewed journals to support their assertions. Nothing at all.
Between 60,000 and millions a year to go with the consensus.

You are buying into the propaganda. Wine has always been grown in England. Wine is grown in England today. Instead of going by the propaganda being put out by ideological and interest groups, look at the peer reviewed science behind this issue. For example, a glacial study found that we are warmer today than in at least 5000 years.
and Siberian perma frost having melted more in the recent past then today?

I'm sorry, there are too many exceptions for me to simply dismiss them all.


Additionally, the oceans have been higher then they are today... without man and as they say in colder times. I don't see how the oceans would rise higher then if world were cooler. What, just a blow torch on the poles?

5000 years is not a long period of time for a planet's climate... Unfortunately while I won't discard your data I really need to see millions to perhaps billions of years with some kind of rough estimate. Only then will you see the planet's real climate history. 5000 years could still be some kind of long cycle.

I do agree with you on more nuclear power though.
It should be noted that many environmentalists do not agree with nuclear power.
 
The conclusion of the report was not peer reviewed. Portions of it were but it was changed by political figures, government officials, etc. Furthermore, as I've said they tend to claim that anyone that comes with in poking distance of them is a contributer when in fact they are not.

Do you not realize that political figures and government officials forced contributers to the IPCC assessments to water down their findings.

Diplomats force IPCC to water down report on climate change


Indeed, and what portion of those scientists agreed with the findings? What was their contribution?

All I can tell you is look at the membership lists:

http://www.ipcc.ch/about/faq/IPCC Who is who.pdf

Moreover, the entire report is footnoted with the contributors, their credentials, and their role.

As to disagreement with the findings, the only substantive disagreement over the IPCC findings has been on what role warming will have with hurricane intensity. However, the basic science behind the issue is pretty much settled.

Your number will shrink... and even then you must consider that the final conclusions were not peer reviewed so the whole report is really not as reliable or credible as you think it is...

The science behind the assessments are fully peer reviewed. The only substantive criticism of the reports in the scientific community has been that many scientists feel the reports are actually too conservative and too watered down due to political pressure.


That still doesn't explain why the caps on mars are melting. I've heard something about dust storms causing it but I find it hard to believe there isn't an external trigger for that... what's more if that is what is causing warming on mars then why could not something similar be the cause on earth? Perhaps a decline in the number of clouds?

A decline in clouds would result in a decrease in global temps, not an increase.

No, green house effect would cause warming in the middle of the atmosphere not the surface.

Read the study I linked to earlier. It’s fully peer reviewed and dealt with this very subject. You will find that the study found that the stratosphere is cooling, the troposphere is warming, and the surface is warming. That is completely consistent with Anthropogenic Global Warming.


and Siberian perma frost having melted more in the recent past then today?

I have yet to see anything either way on that. However, just the same, that would be a regional, not global phenomena.

As to the rest of your post, I am sure we are just going to go round and round on this. However, I have submitted peer reviewed studies to back up my assertions, and I honestly believe that anyone who simply sticks to the science behind this issue will come to the same conclusion that I have and the vast majority of scientific community has.

As it is though, I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. I guess in 30 years or so we should definitely know which one of us was right about this.

Even though I disagree with you, I hope you end up being the who is right.;)
 
Do you not realize that political figures and government officials forced contributers to the IPCC assessments to water down their findings.

Diplomats force IPCC to water down report on climate change
So they say but frankly there are more stages to something like that.


What you have just acknowledged is that the conclusion was strongly influenced by political forces.

IT cannot be both so strongly influenced and yet be scientifically credible.


Sorry... but this is one of the reasons the UN is not a good instrument for such research.


All I can tell you is look at the membership lists:

http://www.ipcc.ch/about/faq/IPCC Who is who.pdf

Moreover, the entire report is footnoted with the contributors, their credentials, and their role.

As to disagreement with the findings, the only substantive disagreement over the IPCC findings has been on what role warming will have with hurricane intensity. However, the basic science behind the issue is pretty much settled.
No there were many disagreements... One I saw recently was from a scientist who's research in viral pathology was used to say that global warming would lead to outbreaks which was in direct contradiction to his contribution... he had to sue to have his name removed.

There are many disagreements.


I'm sorry, the UN report is not credible. It was a driven report by political powers.



A decline in clouds would result in a decrease in global temps, not an increase.
that's in direct contradiction to what I've heard elsewhere. Please provide a link. Clouds so far as I know reflect more solar radiation then they trap.


Read the study I linked to earlier. It’s fully peer reviewed and dealt with this very subject. You will find that the study found that the stratosphere is cooling, the troposphere is warming, and the surface is warming. That is completely consistent with Anthropogenic Global Warming.
I've read the damn theories till my eyes bled... The last time I did so was from the Nature periodical... which is about as credible as they come.



I have yet to see anything either way on that. However, just the same, that would be a regional, not global phenomena.
Perhaps... but I the sea levels would probably not be regional and they've been higher in the past. So how can the temperature both have been cooler and the sea levels higher?

Sorry, I can't over look things like that.
As to the rest of your post, I am sure we are just going to go round and round on this. However, I have submitted peer reviewed studies to back up my assertions, and I honestly believe that anyone who simply sticks to the science behind this issue will come to the same conclusion that I have and the vast majority of scientific community has.
perhaps we are, but you must concede that the UN report is not without some serious credibility problems.


You started out saying it had 3000 scientists and anyone that disagreed was a lone nut in the wild... and now you're down to 700 many of whom might not be fully on board and you've admitted political tampering.


It's just not going to work.

As it is though, I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. I guess in 30 years or so we should definitely know which one of us was right about this.

Even though I disagree with you, I hope you end up being the who is right.;)
I do as well... And what's more if I am right or wrong I hope something good comes out of this. If I am right then I hope this hysteria ends. I don't want to deal with global cooling in 30 years or global room luke warming... I'm tired of it.


If I'm wrong then I hope that in the future they take greater pains not to polarize these results. I cannot trust evidence from polarized sources... they're too prone to lying. I'm not saying that global warming is a lie... merely that I can't tell.
 
So they say but frankly there are more stages to something like that.


What you have just acknowledged is that the conclusion was strongly influenced by political forces.

IT cannot be both so strongly influenced and yet be scientifically credible.

This is starting to get ridiculous. The only problem that many scientists have with the IPCC assessments is that the feel they are to conservative. Its not as though any major industrialized nation out there has anything to gain from carbon caps at the macro economic level. For example, what does China have to gain from massive carbon caps? They sit on huge coal reserves, it is the scientific consensus that if we are to mitigate future warming, then countries like China will have to find another energy source. Therefore, countries like China try to do what the can to water down the final version.

The fact is, the notion that the governments of industrialized nations would be out there trying to hype IPCC finds is absurd. Every industrialized nation on earth has a strong economic incentive, at least in the short term, not to take any meaningful action toward curbing carbon emissions. Hence the failure of Kyoto. Your assertion that governments are hyping the IPCC conclusions do not even pass the reason test. Moreover, there is no evidence of it at all.

Sorry... but this is one of the reasons the UN is not a good instrument for such research.

The IPCC is simply a product of a U.N. mandate, other than that, the U.N. has very little to do with its work. In fact, the U.N. has its own environmental committees that are completely independent of the IPCC.

No there were many disagreements... One I saw recently was from a scientist who's research in viral pathology was used to say that global warming would lead to outbreaks which was in direct contradiction to his contribution... he had to sue to have his name removed.

Oh for crying out loud. So what, you are talking about an ancillary part of the second part of the current assessment. There is not a shred of controversy over the basic findings and theory behind Anthropogenic Global Warming.

that's in direct contradiction to what I've heard elsewhere. Please provide a link. Clouds so far as I know reflect more solar radiation then they trap.

Essentially, the consensus on this issue is this: Increased clouds mitigate daytime highs, but increase night time temps. Decreased clouds increase daytime highs, but decrease night time temps.

We have observed a much higher degree of warming in night time temps than in day time highs, thus, one can rule out to a decent degree of certainty your assertion that decreased cloudiness could be the driver in our current warming. Moreover, water vapor is by far the strongest greenhouse agent in the atmosphere.

I mean now come on, do you not think that had not occurred to the great minds at the National Academy of Sciences?

Some articles on this are here:
http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/ftp_docs/Global_Warming.pdf
CNN.com - Nature - Clouds' role in global warming studied - October 9, 2000


Perhaps... but I the sea levels would probably not be regional and they've been higher in the past. So how can the temperature both have been cooler and the sea levels higher?

Sorry, I can't over look things like that.

It would be helpful if you can provide a source for that. I do know however that during ice ages the weight of the glaciers actually reduce the elevation of the continents and thus in some cases (depending on the proportion of the earth’s water locked up in the glaciers), increase sea levels. However, as to the effect that warming may have on sea levels there is an article on this here:
RealClimate » Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue

perhaps we are, but you must concede that the UN report is not without some serious credibility problems.


You started out saying it had 3000 scientists and anyone that disagreed was a lone nut in the wild... and now you're down to 700 many of whom might not be fully on board and you've admitted political tampering.

There are 2500 Expert Scientific Reviewers, 850 Authors, and 450 Lead Authors.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The tampering is not hyping, it’s watering down the results. Thus, what I don’t think you seem to get here is that any science behind this issue that is remotely controversial ends up being stripped out, and as a result the assessments have been far more conservative in their models and predictions than many scientists feel they should be.
 
This is starting to get ridiculous.
Actually it already is ridiculous. You're repeating stuff you already know to be false. We've already gone over the point that there is more to the problem then that some say "it's too conservative".


So that's over and I'm done debating the point until you can at least retain points you've already conceded.


The IPCC is simply a product of a U.N. mandate, other than that, the U.N. has very little to do with its work. In fact, the U.N. has its own environmental committees that are completely independent of the IPCC.
It's part of the UN and the report is published by the UN... and nations and politicians get access to it through the UN.


So, wrong.




Oh for crying out loud. So what, you are talking about an ancillary part of the second part of the current assessment. There is not a shred of controversy over the basic findings and theory behind Anthropogenic Global Warming.
We're talking about the validity of a report... you're saying you have 700 scientists that participated in it and that it's peer reviewed.

I've debunked that point largely. Use something besides the IPCC.


Over. Niet.



Essentially, the consensus on this issue is this: Increased clouds mitigate daytime highs, but increase night time temps. Decreased clouds increase daytime highs, but decrease night time temps.
A few months ago people were talking about cosmic rays and how that impacted cloud cover... and thus some how might be effecting global climate. I distinctly remember from that discussion that clouds were seen as generally more reflective then absorptive.


I mean now come on, do you not think that had not occurred to the great minds at the National Academy of Sciences?

Some articles on this are here:
http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/ftp_docs/Global_Warming.pdf
CNN.com - Nature - Clouds' role in global warming studied - October 9, 2000
Very well... I know I read seemingly contradictory statements elsewhere that also came from Nasa, but clearly on the GW issue they're saying that nothing can stop it and we're going to boil.


Repent sinners, for the rapture cometh! :lol:


It would be helpful if you can provide a source for that. I do know however that during ice ages the weight of the glaciers actually reduce the elevation of the continents and thus in some cases (depending on the proportion of the earth’s water locked up in the glaciers), increase sea levels. However, as to the effect that warming may have on sea levels there is an article on this here:
RealClimate » Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue
Image:Phanerozoic Sea Level.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That apparently somehow is a graph of sea levels over millions of years. I have no way of knowing how accurate it is... and it was not my original source it was just easy to find.


I think I first saw something on NASA about this...

There are 2500 Expert Scientific Reviewers, 850 Authors, and 450 Lead Authors.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The tampering is not hyping, it’s watering down the results. Thus, what I don’t think you seem to get here is that any science behind this issue that is remotely controversial ends up being stripped out, and as a result the assessments have been far more conservative in their models and predictions than many scientists feel they should be.
I'm not convinced that the "tampering" was limited to what you think it was.


So enough of that report. It's tainted.
 
You bloody liberal commie treehugger terrorist loving jew hating muslim lover Danarhea.. how dare you expose a "hero" of the right? :mrgreen:

btw did I miss any of the usual right wing slurs?

Yes, you did................ Conservative. They will use that as a slur soon, because, God knows, they are NOT Conservative. LOL.

Seriously, though, environmentalism is not the sole territory of people on the left. Nixon created the EPA, and Goldwater was a stout conservationist. In addition, many on the religious right (not the hypocritical dominionists, but real evangelicals) see the earth as God's creation, and feel that, if you crap on the earth, you are crapping on God himself.
 
Seriously, though, environmentalism is not the sole territory of people on the left. Nixon created the EPA, and Goldwater was a stout conservationist. In addition, many on the religious right (not the hypocritical dominionists, but real evangelicals) see the earth as God's creation, and feel that, if you crap on the earth, you are crapping on God himself.
it shouldn't be but the environmental movement has been taken over by it.


And until that's changed it will suffer for that polarization. If you care about the environment, then purge the people sucking off it for unrelated ideological ends.

Otherwise, the political realities are that it will suffer for it. It's automatic.
 
it shouldn't be but the environmental movement has been taken over by it.


And until that's changed it will suffer for that polarization. If you care about the environment, then purge the people sucking off it for unrelated ideological ends.

Otherwise, the political realities are that it will suffer for it. It's automatic.

Human caused global warming advocates have turned the issue into big business with huge grants from various "green" organizations eager to prove that what takes the earth hundreds of years to accomplish, humans can cause in less than a hundred years.

Sheer arrogance.

It seems a new religion has sprung up with the Gospel According to Gore as its teachings. A college in Rhode Island has stipulated that no student may graduate without first viewing Gore's mockumentary. High schools in Canada are showing the film bought and paid for by various "green" organizations without an opposing view being shown. I thought schools should be non-biased but more and more, they lean toward one view and treat it as holy writ.

What is fascinating though is that many scientists eager to prove that humans alone are causing all the problems conveniently forget about the middle age warming period when the glaciers on Greenland were, for the most part, non-existant.

And then there is the "consensus". Nobody can show me a consensus. Only flawed computer models programmed by flawed humans and then base their observations and theories with what gets crapped out the printer. And these same computer models can't predict the weather 24 hours in advance. There is something wrong and I have come to the inescapable conclusion:

That since the hypothesis was formed by one scientists (who has since changed his mind), everyone has jumped onto that bandwagon. Reminds of back in the 70's how the next ice age "was around the corner". The MSM has picked up the Global Warming issue and heightened its popularity with the doom and gloom prophecy that humans will die out in the next decade. Global warming and climate change studies has taken on the big business attitude and it is fueled by ever increasing grants by people who now make a living on those grants who want to protect their jobs. They will spit out whatever the grant giver wants to hear in order to keep eating. It is a vicious cycle and it is bound to fail.

What the human caused global warming advocates fail to realize is the exact same thing is happening on Mars. So by their logic, the Mars Rover is the sole cause for Mars polar ice caps to begin melting. And how about Neptune. Its also warming. No response from the disciples of the Gospel According to Gore on that one but I am breathless in anticipation for the bit of insanity that is sure to issue forth in response.

In short, no matter what humans or the countries will do to curb CO2 or other "greenhouse" gasses, the cycle of heating and cooling will continue.

Once this scare is over, the fear mongering and next doom and gloom message is that the earth will freeze into a gigantic ice cube and everyone will die. The message has cycles as well as the earth.

Everyone needs to calm down about this whole thing.
 
Hypothetical question to you Mendacious, and this out of curiosity:

If human activity was causing earth to warm up slowly do you think we would ever be able to realise that? Your post above seems to suggest that we would never be able to figure it out, because lets face it science and climate models are always going to be far from perfect and noone is ever going to be able to prove a slow warming is due to human activity whether the earth warms 0.5C in 100 years or 3C, there will never be a consensus on it for this reason.

So if human activity was causing earth to warm say 0.2C per decade would you agree that under your logic we would end up sleepwalking to our destruction? The basis for that being that we would never try to stop it because we could never prove it was due to us?

Perhaps though you have some sort of point where you would be convinced warming was due to human activity even though it couldn't be 100% proven, or at least you have a point where you think we might as well try to stop it. If so what would that point be?
 
Hypothetical question to you Mendacious, and this out of curiosity:

If human activity was causing earth to warm up slowly do you think we would ever be able to realise that? Your post above seems to suggest that we would never be able to figure it out, because lets face it science and climate models are always going to be far from perfect and noone is ever going to be able to prove a slow warming is due to human activity whether the earth warms 0.5C in 100 years or 3C, there will never be a consensus on it for this reason.

So if human activity was causing earth to warm say 0.2C per decade would you agree that under your logic we would end up sleepwalking to our destruction? The basis for that being that we would never try to stop it because we could never prove it was due to us?

Perhaps though you have some sort of point where you would be convinced warming was due to human activity even though it couldn't be 100% proven, or at least you have a point where you think we might as well try to stop it. If so what would that point be?

So you want to play the "what if" game. What you fail to realize is that it is being played out right now. The advocates for human caused are playing that what if game by their unproven theories. The dynamics of the atmosphere are complex at best. During the medieval warming period, temps were much higher than they are now. So I fail to see what the proble is. Is more CO2 being pumped out now than before. Yes. But historical records have shown that when temps rise, CO2 levels rise as well. When temps fall, CO2 levels fall. Then what is not shown on any computer models is water vapor in the air. That causes temps to warm or cool irrespective of CO2.

The earth goes through warming and cooling cycles. The earth is coming out of a cooling cycle and entering a warming cycle and that big flaming ball in the sky is the sole reason why the earth is getting warmer. Because the sun is hotter. Like the earth, the sun goes through heating and cooling cycles. Why the other planets are heating as well.
 
During the medieval warming period, temps were much higher than they are now.

Perhaps, perhaps not. There's nothing to suggest they were much higher, they could have in fact been slightly lower - ie 1980s temperature level.

Is more CO2 being pumped out now than before. Yes. But historical records have shown that when temps rise, CO2 levels rise as well. When temps fall, CO2 levels fall.

The same historical records show that co2 levels today are higher than they have been for at least the last million years. co2 levels are so high today not because of temperature but because of human emissions.

Then what is not shown on any computer models is water vapor in the air. That causes temps to warm or cool irrespective of CO2.

Water vapor is included in the models, and acts to amplify the warming from co2. More co2 -> warming -> more evaporation -> more warming

The earth goes through warming and cooling cycles. The earth is coming out of a cooling cycle and entering a warming cycle and that big flaming ball in the sky is the sole reason why the earth is getting warmer. Because the sun is hotter. Like the earth, the sun goes through heating and cooling cycles. Why the other planets are heating as well.

Yet the sun hasn't increased activity significantly for the last 50 years
 
So you want to play the "what if" game......

Heck let's really "what if" here.

What if the predictions of the late 70's and early 80's that we are actually transversing into an ice age are correct. That this is just a blip at the end of the current warming period, since the little ice age. So the earth is cycling back to a cooling trend. So "what if" we discover a way to cool the earth down and we do that and THEN the ice age kicks in and instead of a decline of a degree or two, because we have "manipulated" the climate the earth actually cools several degrees, ending life as we know it.

We can "what if" all day long which is about how accurate the HCGW believers are with their predictions.
 
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