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Global Cooling Is Under Way

Suburban Jedi said:
LOL I'm giving you the answers --you're just too ignorant to know that :lamo

Where is radiative forcing measured, and in what units?
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Book learning without logic is book smarts: you VS. street smarts: me.
 
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[h=1]Dr. Willie Soon versus the Climate Apocalypse[/h][FONT=&quot]More honesty and less hubris, more evidence and less dogmatism, would do a world of good Dr. Jeffrey Foss “What can I do to correct these crazy, super wrong errors?” Willie Soon asked plaintively in a recent e-chat. “What errors, Willie?” I asked. “Errors in Total Solar Irradiance,” he replied. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate…
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[h=1]Cooling Down The Land[/h]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As I mentioned in a recent post, the CERES satellite folks have released another year’s worth of data. Since this should have gotten us past the temperature bump related to the 2016-2017 El Nino, I thought I’d take a look at the temperature and the temperature trends. First, the temperature:…
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=1]Cooling Down The Land[/h]Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As I mentioned in a recent post, the CERES satellite folks have released another year’s worth of data. Since this should have gotten us past the temperature bump related to the 2016-2017 El Nino, I thought I’d take a look at the temperature and the temperature trends. First, the temperature:…
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Man, I Hate Being Wrong

December 6, 2018

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

We’ll get to what I did wrong in a moment, but first, in my last post, a number of folks questioned my calculation of the surface temperatures from the CERES surface dataset. This is a dataset which is calculated from the CERES measured top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation measured by the satellites.

Let me start with a description of the CERES surface dataset from the developers:


LINK
 
Sunsettommy said:
Man, I Hate Being Wrong

December 6, 2018

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

We’ll get to what I did wrong in a moment, but first, in my last post, a number of folks questioned my calculation of the surface temperatures from the CERES surface dataset. This is a dataset which is calculated from the CERES measured top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation measured by the satellites.

Let me start with a description of the CERES surface dataset from the developers:


LINK
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From the start of people spouting satellite information, I had said there is no way to properly adjust with accuracy. I don';t know how accurate they can get, but from my understanding of multi-layer spectral analysis, it is too difficult to have any usable accuracy.
 
[h=3]Fleming, 2018[/h][h=6]“The results of this review point to the extreme value of CO2 to all life forms, but no role of CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … Many believe and/or support the notion that the Earth’s atmosphere is a ‘greenhouse’ with CO2 as the primary “greenhouse” gas warming Earth. That this concept seems acceptable is understandable—the modern heating of the Earth’s atmosphere began at the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. The industrial revolution took hold about the same time. It would be natural to believe that these two events could be the reason for the rise in temperature. There is now a much clearer picture of an alternative reason for why the Earth’s surface temperature has risen since 1850.”[/h][h=6][/h][h=6]“There is no correlation of CO2 with temperature in any historical data set that was reviewed. The climate-change cooling over the 1940–1975 time period of the Modern Warming period was shown to be influenced by a combination of solar factors. The cause of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age climate changes was the solar magnetic field and cosmic ray connection. When the solar magnetic field is strong, it acts as a barrier to cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere, clouds decrease and the Earth warms. Conversely when the solar magnetic field is weak, there is no barrier to cosmic rays—they greatly increase large areas of low-level clouds, increasing the Earth’s albedo and the planet cools. The factors that affect these climate changes were reviewed in “Solar magnetic field/cosmic ray factors affecting climate change” section. The calculations of “H2O and CO2 in the radiation package” section revealed that there is no net impact of CO2 on the net heating of the atmosphere. The received heat is simply redistributed within the atmospheric column. This result is consistent and explains the lack of CO2 correlations with observations in the past. The current Modern Warming will continue until the solar magnetic field decreases in strength. If one adds the 350-year cycle from the McCracken result to the center of the Maunder Minimum which was centered in 1680, one would have a Grand Minimum centered in the year 2030.”[/h]
 
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[h=1]NOAA: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19[/h][FONT=&quot]EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 December 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 201819 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance). ENSO-neutral continued during November,…
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[h=1]Hump Day Hilarity – climate science in denial, wishes “the pause” away[/h][FONT=&quot]From the “Where we’re going, we don’t need data!” department comes this absolute corruption of science. It’s so bad, it’s actually funny. Josh sure thinks so. First the trigger, from the bought and paid for mouthpiece known as Inside Climate News: Excerpt: The United Nations panel of climate science experts mentioned it in a 2013…
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92 New Papers (2018) Link Solar Forcing To Climate . . . Some Predict Solar-Induced Global Cooling By 2030!

By Kenneth Richard on 27. December 2018

Global Cooling On The Horizon?

Cooling-Forecast-Solar-Abdussamatov-2012.jpg
 
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[h=1]Recently Dropping Global Temperatures Demonstrate IPCC Claims are Impossible[/h][FONT=&quot]Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball When you put the claims of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in perspective, you get a very different picture that defies logic. I decided to do this because of their recent hysterical claims in Special Report 15 (SR-15) designed to frighten and bully the world into completely unnecessary…
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[h=2]2018 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40[/h]December 20th, 2018Even before our December numbers are in, we can now say that 2018 will be the 6th warmest year in the UAH satellite measurements of global-average lower atmospheric temperatures, at +0.23 deg. C (+0.41 deg. F) above the thirty-year (1981-2010) average.
The following plot ranks all of the years from warmest to coolest, with the ten warmest and ten coolest years indicated:

The first (1979) and last (2018) years in the record are indicated in purple.
2018 is also the 40th year of satellite data for monitoring global atmospheric temperatures.
We are currently working on Version 6.1 of the dataset, which will have new diurnal drift corrections. Preliminary results suggest that the resulting linear warming trend over the 40 years (+0.13 C/decade) will not change substantially, and thus will remain considerably cooler than the average rate of warming across the IPCC climate models used for energy policy, CO2 emissions reductions, and the Paris Agreement.



 
Confirmed: cooling continued through 2018. 2016>2017>2018>. . . .

UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2018: +0.25 deg. C

January 2nd, 20192018 was 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40 Years
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2018 was +0.25 deg. C, down a little from +0.28 deg. C in November:
Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed, and so has the distinction between calendar months.


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Jack Hays said:
Confirmed: cooling continued through 2018. 2016>2017>2018>. . . .

UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2018: +0.25 deg. C

January 2nd, 20192018 was 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40 Years
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2018 was +0.25 deg. C, down a little from +0.28 deg. C in November:
Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed, and so has the distinction between calendar months.


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6th warmest year 10,000 feet in the air.
 
Threegoofs said:
Yes. So why don’t you ever talk about the temperatures there?
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Surface data are included.

"The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2018 was +0.25 deg. C, down a little from +0.28 deg. C in November: . . . "
 
Threegoofs said:
Yes. So why don’t you ever talk about the temperatures there?
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Jack seems to be ramping up his rate of copy and pasted pseudoscience blog posts. Must be a New Years resolution to waste even more of his life.
 
I was looking at the GISS data set,
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
and if we take the average of the last decades Dec High, and Dec Low,
then 2018's annual average will likely be about .81 C, .08 C lower than 2017, and .19 Cooler than 2016.
This is not entirely unprecedented, and the post 1997 El Nino decline was .21 C.
Earlier El Nino events caused a drop for up to two years, if the fall in temperatures continues past this,
it could well be a sign of a change the pattern.
 
[FONT=&quot]Climate data[/FONT]
[h=1]Global Cooling since 2016 – 2018 was the 6th warmest year in the past 40 years[/h][FONT=&quot] From the University of Alabama, Huntsville. Jan 2, 2019 Global Temperature Report: December 2018 Global climate trend since Dec. 1 1978: +0.13 C per decade December 2018 Temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.25 C (+0.45 °F) above seasonal average Northern Hemisphere.: +0.32 C (+0.58°F) above seasonal average Southern Hemisphere.: +0.19 C (+0.34 °F) above…
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