GDP down 0.3% (1 Viewer)

[Ishm]

As I have been trying to tell some of our resident magas over the past few weeks as they talk up Trumps handling of the economy -

Based on all the factual evidence - "We are almost certainly already in the beginnings of a recession"

My prediction from October last year when Trumps policies became clear was that if elected he would put us into a recession in 3Q25 or 4Q25. Looks like we will probably see the formal recession declaration in 3Q. So why couldn't the maga cult see this coming?

 

[Quag]

As I have been trying to tell some of our resident magas over the past few weeks as they talk up Trumps handling of the economy -

Based on all the factual evidence - "We are almost certainly already in the beginnings of a recession"

My prediction from October last year when Trumps policies became clear was that if elected he would put us into a recession in 3Q25 or 4Q25. Looks like we will probably see the formal recession declaration in 3Q. So why couldn't the maga cult see this coming?

Hard to think straight when you are hopped up on Kool-Ade

 

[ataraxia]

“When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
- Donald Trump on the campaign trail 2024

 

[bongsaway]

“When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
- Donald Trump on the campaign trail 2024

An ego maniacal blowhard who believes his own bullshit.

 

[poweRob]

“When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
- Donald Trump on the campaign trail 2024

He was partially correct. Because the economy was already booming and he definitely turned it around so fast.

 

[Integrityrespec]

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

It's always up and down.
LineBarMap
Also ShowShareDetails
Label

 

[MamboDervish]

As I have been trying to tell some of our resident magas over the past few weeks as they talk up Trumps handling of the economy -

Based on all the factual evidence - "We are almost certainly already in the beginnings of a recession"

My prediction from October last year when Trumps policies became clear was that if elected he would put us into a recession in 3Q25 or 4Q25. Looks like we will probably see the formal recession declaration in 3Q. So why couldn't the maga cult see this coming?

I suspect it's a combination of rose colored glasses, and a sinus infection.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

It's always up and down.
LineBarMap
Also ShowShareDetails
Label

What exactly is your argument here?

Trump is powerless to affect markets?​

​

Trump's negative effect on the markets is harmless​

​

or something else?​

 

[MamboDervish]

What exactly is your argument here?

A desperate knee-jerk defense of Trump is what it seems like.

Trump is powerless to affect markets?​

​

Trump's negative effect on the markets is harmless​

​

or something else?​

 

[dmpi]

Nothing to worry about. It's just an artifact of how we compute GDP. It's exports minus imports. China and others dumped on us big-time to get around the future tariffs. It's a one time thing. They dump so much on us that we won't have shortages for many months.

 

[OrphanSlug]

It makes sense as to why it happened, the issue we have to discuss is this was purposeful based on the pending but now realized multi-direction trade war Trump got us into.

There was another thread on a similar subject, but most importers stockpiled products that could sit in warehousing ahead of the tariffs. Because the US is a net importer the GDP math on net Exports went that much more negative causing a GDP decline. Our bigger issue is we are already seeing the economy slow anyway thus we are setting up another GDP decline looking forward, the slow downs will be in Consumer Spending and Business Investment (to some degree also Government Spending but that will end up delayed in realized GDP math calculations.)

Regardless, recession is now that much more likely as the question is consumption vs. prior investment leading into this quarter.

 

[hooligan]

China and others dumped on us big-time to get around the future tariffs.

That's adorable spin.

The reality is the IMPORTERS stocked up in anticipation of the tariffs. Turns out it was the right call, too.

 

[Roadvirus]

“When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
- Donald Trump on the campaign trail 2024

Destructive explosions make a "boom" sound, so....

 

[dmpi]

That's adorable spin.

The reality is the IMPORTERS stocked up in anticipation of the tariffs. Turns out it was the right call, too.

It all depends on the price our importers paid. Low-ball price means time to stock up. China has a huge overcapacity problem, either they store the excess inventory or we store it.

 

[hooligan]

It all depends on the price our importers paid.

I'll play. What price did "our importers pay"?