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Free spread of COVID-19 in Sweden didn't lead to 'herd immunity'

TU Curmudgeon

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From United Press International

Free spread of COVID-19 in Sweden didn't lead to 'herd immunity'

Diverging from much of the world, Sweden let COVID-19 spread in hopes the population would develop "herd immunity." But the risky strategy failed, a new report finds.

Rather than imposing a hard lockdown in March as other countries did, the Scandinavian nation relied on individual responsibility to stop the spread of the deadly coronavirus. This is the idea of "folkvett" -- common sense of the people -- and the approach made headlines at the time.

Gyms, stores and restaurants remained open schools were open for kids up to age 16 while gatherings of more than 50 people were banned.
Authorities predicted that 40% of the people in Stockholm would get the disease and develop protective antibodies by May. The actual prevalence, however, was around 15%, according to the study published Aug. 11 in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

RELATED Common cold could boost COVID-19 immunity, study finds

"It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalization and mortality [per million population] much higher than those seen in neighboring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway," said researcher Dr. David Goldsmith, a retired physician in London.

COMMENT:-

Will this put a stop to those who claim that absolutely no restrictions on contact or other preventive measures are needed in the US because "That's what Sweden did and it worked."?

In a pig's ear it will.

However the internally linked article about the common cold is likely going to cause some people to advocate catching any disease which causes pneumonia in order to prevent catching COVID-19 and that will likely cause some people to advocate sitting in cold drafts with your feet wet as some sort of "magic bullet".
 

swing_voter

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All six of us got the virus.

The doctor said he didn't know if we'll need to get the vaccine or not. Sounds like we'll need to get it.
 

Hamish Howl

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I am just here to watch Reuben and Paradoxical lose their minds on this thread.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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I am just here to watch Reuben and Paradoxical lose their minds on this thread.

Don't hold your breath.

At last report they were "social distancing" from anything that didn't **P*R*O*V*E** that the US was doing (at least) 100% better than any country in the world at everything.

You might be amused at what taking a look at how several areas are doing with respect to COVID-19 when you consider their relative "ability to pay" to fight it is considered.

20-08-14 B3 - Death by Ability to Pay.JPG

That's based on PPP GDP per capita.

If you look at it in terms of "per capita expenditure on healthcare" it gets REALLY interesting, but I'm too lazy to upgrade the table.
 

bongsaway

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Don't hold your breath.

At last report they were "social distancing" from anything that didn't **P*R*O*V*E** that the US was doing (at least) 100% better than any country in the world at everything.

You might be amused at what taking a look at how several areas are doing with respect to COVID-19 when you consider their relative "ability to pay" to fight it is considered.


That's based on PPP GDP per capita.

If you look at it in terms of "per capita expenditure on healthcare" it gets REALLY interesting, but I'm too lazy to upgrade the table.

Do all those numbers mean we're doing great in america? Do they wipe out the over hundred fifty thousand deaths? Will those numbers stop the spread?

Who cares about numbers proving this or that while thousands are being infected every day and thousands more dying? What do your numbers say about that?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Do all those numbers mean we're doing great in america? Do they wipe out the over hundred fifty thousand deaths? Will those numbers stop the spread?

Please ask yourself, "If I will lose my bet 3,525 times out of 10,000 - does that mean that I will lose more often than I will win?".

Who cares about numbers proving this or that while thousands are being infected every day and thousands more dying? What do your numbers say about that?

Please ask an educated 12 year-old to explain percentages to you.
 

bongsaway

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Please ask yourself, "If I will lose my bet 3,525 times out of 10,000 - does that mean that I will lose more often than I will win?".



Please ask an educated 12 year-old to explain percentages to you.

Explain percentages to the dead folks and their families. Percentages are great, as long as you are not one of those numbers.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Explain percentages to the dead folks and their families. Percentages are great, as long as you are not one of those numbers.

Obviously you would have trouble answering the question

If I have a choice between

  1. making a bet where I will lose 35% of the time, and
    *
  2. making a bet where I will lose 100% of the time,

which bet should I place?
 

Casper

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All six of us got the virus.

The doctor said he didn't know if we'll need to get the vaccine or not. Sounds like we'll need to get it.

Correct and since they have no idea how long immunity lasts if we even get immunity they are saying that we may have to get a vaccine every couple of months until the virus has run it course.
 

bongsaway

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Obviously you would have trouble answering the question

If I have a choice between

  1. making a bet where I will lose 35% of the time, and
    *
  2. making a bet where I will lose 100% of the time,

which bet should I place?

You're the numbers guy, you tell me.
 

George50

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From United Press International

Free spread of COVID-19 in Sweden didn't lead to 'herd immunity'

Diverging from much of the world, Sweden let COVID-19 spread in hopes the population would develop "herd immunity." But the risky strategy failed, a new report finds.

Rather than imposing a hard lockdown in March as other countries did, the Scandinavian nation relied on individual responsibility to stop the spread of the deadly coronavirus. This is the idea of "folkvett" -- common sense of the people -- and the approach made headlines at the time.

Gyms, stores and restaurants remained open schools were open for kids up to age 16 while gatherings of more than 50 people were banned.
Authorities predicted that 40% of the people in Stockholm would get the disease and develop protective antibodies by May. The actual prevalence, however, was around 15%, according to the study published Aug. 11 in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

RELATED Common cold could boost COVID-19 immunity, study finds

"It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalization and mortality [per million population] much higher than those seen in neighboring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway," said researcher Dr. David Goldsmith, a retired physician in London.

COMMENT:-

Will this put a stop to those who claim that absolutely no restrictions on contact or other preventive measures are needed in the US because "That's what Sweden did and it worked."?

In a pig's ear it will.

However the internally linked article about the common cold is likely going to cause some people to advocate catching any disease which causes pneumonia in order to prevent catching COVID-19 and that will likely cause some people to advocate sitting in cold drafts with your feet wet as some sort of "magic bullet".

The idea that things are normal in Sweden is a popular myth. Cases are going down now but it’s because they changed their strategy.

Sweden does not mandate masks but they employ social distancing and they have now figured out that testing, quarantine and contact tracing REDUCES cases not increases cases. Unfortunately for the US, Trump has never grasped this.

“Sweden is tackling the COVID-19 pandemic through both legally binding measures and recommendations. The government and the Swedish Public Health Agency have taken a number of decisions involving a wide range of new regulations and recommendations that affect the whole of society, including people’s private lives. There is no full lockdown in force, but many parts of Swedish society have shut down.

Life is not carrying on as normal in Sweden. Many people are staying at home and many have stopped travelling. This has had severe effects on Swedes as well as on the Swedish economy. Many businesses are folding. Unemployment is expected to rise dramatically. The Government has taken several measures to mitigate the economic effects and to stabilise the economy.

Sweden shares the same aim as all other countries: to protect the life and health of its population. Fundamentally, Sweden’s measures only differ from other countries in two regards: we are not shutting down schools for younger children or childcare facilities and we have no regulation that forces citizens to remain in their homes.”

Sweden’s response to COVID-19: “Life is not carrying on as normal”

“Sweden was slow to ramp up testing for any but the seriously ill and healthcare workers, but weekly numbers for tests have more than doubled since late may, putting the country in the same bracket as extensively testing nations such as Germany”

Every time they find an infected person and they quarantine, they are reducing the average transmission rate.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

TU Curmudgeon

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You're the numbers guy, you tell me.

If you were making the bet with me, the answer is "Option 2". (I have no moral objection to taking advantage of a condition of "aggravated and total dumbness".)

If you were not making the bet with me, the answer would depend on which party had paid for my services (I am worthy of my hire)- wouldn't it?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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The idea that things are normal in Sweden is a popular myth. Cases are going down now but it’s because they changed their strategy.

Sweden does not mandate masks but they employ social distancing and they have now figured out that testing, quarantine and contact tracing REDUCES cases not increases cases. Unfortunately for the US, Trump has never grasped this.

“Sweden is tackling the COVID-19 pandemic through both legally binding measures and recommendations. The government and the Swedish Public Health Agency have taken a number of decisions involving a wide range of new regulations and recommendations that affect the whole of society, including people’s private lives. There is no full lockdown in force, but many parts of Swedish society have shut down.

Life is not carrying on as normal in Sweden. Many people are staying at home and many have stopped travelling. This has had severe effects on Swedes as well as on the Swedish economy. Many businesses are folding. Unemployment is expected to rise dramatically. The Government has taken several measures to mitigate the economic effects and to stabilise the economy.

Sweden shares the same aim as all other countries: to protect the life and health of its population. Fundamentally, Sweden’s measures only differ from other countries in two regards: we are not shutting down schools for younger children or childcare facilities and we have no regulation that forces citizens to remain in their homes.”

Sweden’s response to COVID-19: “Life is not carrying on as normal”

“Sweden was slow to ramp up testing for any but the seriously ill and healthcare workers, but weekly numbers for tests have more than doubled since late may, putting the country in the same bracket as extensively testing nations such as Germany”

Every time they find an infected person and they quarantine, they are reducing the average transmission rate.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Several of the retail establishments that I have visited lately had "Contact Tracing" sheets put out for their customers to sign (and supply their phone numbers). Those sheets are NOT mandatory, but every customer that I saw was signing them. Yes, that is anecdotal evidence, but it is also evidence of a "socially responsible attitude".

PS - It's also smart because it means that you can be contacted MUCH more quickly if it turns out you were exposed to COVID-19.
 

George50

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Several of the retail establishments that I have visited lately had "Contact Tracing" sheets put out for their customers to sign (and supply their phone numbers). Those sheets are NOT mandatory, but every customer that I saw was signing them. Yes, that is anecdotal evidence, but it is also evidence of a "socially responsible attitude".

PS - It's also smart because it means that you can be contacted MUCH more quickly if it turns out you were exposed to COVID-19.

That sounds like a great idea. You must live in a more “socially responsible “ area than I do because I haven’t seen any of that. I will say though I’ve not been to many retail establishments recently.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Lursa

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Explain percentages to the dead folks and their families. Percentages are great, as long as you are not one of those numbers.

The percentages indicate the treatments and social distancing/mask usage that were more effective than others. So that other communities, countries, states, etc can learn which treatments, etc will save the most lives in their regions.

Now do you understand the importance, the value, of using data to save lives?



This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
 

TU Curmudgeon

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The percentages indicate the treatments and social distancing/mask usage that were more effective than others. So that other communities, countries, states, etc can learn which treatments, etc will save the most lives in their regions.

Now do you understand the importance, the value, of using data to save lives?

What you don't appear to appreciate is that, for "Claque Trump"

DATA = "Whatever President Trump Says"

(See also "MinTru")
 
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