Same crap we heard last election:“Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.
Same crap we heard last election:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-in-georgia-and-its-not-even-that-surprising/
I don't know why it is, but polling always skews way left in Georgia before coming back to reality.
Here's 2016:
View attachment 67291280
Trump still has a 29% chance of winning.
The worst baseball team can occasionally beat the best.
Make sure you vote.
Enough said to make me permanently rule out using 538 as a news source. Nobody can have a 71% chance of winning the popular vote and a 29% chance of losing the Electoral College vote. The reporter is obviously a Trumper.
How do these poll result6s compare to Quinappiac, Ipsos, Gallup, and Real Clear Politics averages?
“Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.
But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.
Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.
That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.”
“The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.”
It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out | FiveThirtyEight
2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19 | FiveThirtyEight
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Trump still has a 29% chance of winning.
The worst baseball team can occasionally beat the best.
Make sure you vote.
71%, eh? Guess we are starting where we left off... This is their prediction on election day of 2016 (November 8)...
View attachment 67291284
lol...I will not tell the wife about this. She still hasn't forgiven me for showing her Silver's projections in 2016.
That’s nearly a 1-3 shot for Trump to win. That’s close to what 538 said last time.
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My Election Day plan: Vote, drink, go to bed.
This was before the pandemic. It just makes even more sense now.
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Vote like 160,000+ lives could depend on it.
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.
My Election Day plan: Vote, drink, go to bed.
This was before the pandemic. It just makes even more sense now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Trump still has a 29% chance of winning.
The worst baseball team can occasionally beat the best.
Make sure you vote.
I have a debilitating fear of tailgating, exacerbated by being in the passenger seat with a driver who's tailgating. Not wanting to be a back seat driver, I'll close my eyes so I don't have to be "that guy." Nope. Doesn't work. In fact, the knowledge that there's tailgating and not being able to see it magnifies the neurosis. In the end I'm forced to be the douche who tells the driver to back off from the car in front of us.
It's. Not. A. Prediction.
Haha. Point taken.
I just know that because of the slow crawl for the results, this will make the 2000 election look pretty mild. So, may as well get some rest and not think about it for a while.
"We may still get to be a democracy tomorrow morning...or not! Haha! Sleep tight!"
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