• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

FiveThirtyEight just launched their election forecast today. Biden has a 71% chance of winning which

George50

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 22, 2017
Messages
2,833
Reaction score
1,630
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
“Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.”



“The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.”

It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out | FiveThirtyEight

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19 | FiveThirtyEight



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.
 
Trump still has a 29% chance of winning.


The worst baseball team can occasionally beat the best.

Make sure you vote.
 
“Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.
Same crap we heard last election:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-in-georgia-and-its-not-even-that-surprising/

I don't know why it is, but polling always skews way left in Georgia before coming back to reality.
Here's 2016:

Screenshot_20200812-231302_Chrome.jpg
 
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.

Give up if you want, but then you won’t have a clue as to what is going on. The poll aggregators have the best predictions.

FiveThirtyEight has consistently been one of the best. In 2012 they called every state correctly which no one else could do.

They had a 70/30 call for Clinton in 2016 which they term slightly favored. 50/50 is a tossup. Remember it would have only required about 80,000 votes to swing the other way for Trump to lose. No one can predict the outcome when margins are that close.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Enough said to make me permanently rule out using 538 as a news source. Anything that even remotely implies Trump's chances of winning are almost 30 percent is 100 percent false.
 
Last edited:
Trump still has a 29% chance of winning.


The worst baseball team can occasionally beat the best.

Make sure you vote.

Yes, and that’s about 1 out of 3 chances, so Biden is certainly not a sure thing!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
FiveThirtyEight just launched their election forecast today. Biden has a 71% chance of winning ...

71%, eh? Guess we are starting where we left off... This is their prediction on election day of 2016 (November 8)...

538_nov8_16_forecast.jpg
 
Last edited:
Enough said to make me permanently rule out using 538 as a news source. Nobody can have a 71% chance of winning the popular vote and a 29% chance of losing the Electoral College vote. The reporter is obviously a Trumper.

How do these poll result6s compare to Quinappiac, Ipsos, Gallup, and Real Clear Politics averages?

You didn’t read it correctly. First this is a forecast, not a poll average. FiveThirtyEight has their poll average elsewhere on their site.

The 71% is the chance that Biden will win the electoral college vote, the 29% is the chance that Trump will win the electoral college.

Nate silver is not a reporter, he is a statistician.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
That’s nearly a 1-3 shot for Trump to win. That’s close to what 538 said last time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
“Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.”



“The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.”

It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out | FiveThirtyEight

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19 | FiveThirtyEight



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

lol...I will not tell the wife about this. She still hasn't forgiven me for showing her Silver's projections in 2016.
 
71%, eh? Guess we are starting where we left off... This is their prediction on election day of 2016 (November 8)...

View attachment 67291284

Yes and they cover that in the article.

However, they also point out that if this were Election Day today, the model would predict 93% Biden, 7% Trump which means Trump would have a very slim chance if the election were held today. A 70/30 split on Election Day is about a 1 in 3 chance which is still a pretty good chance of winning.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
lol...I will not tell the wife about this. She still hasn't forgiven me for showing her Silver's projections in 2016.

My Election Day plan: Vote, drink, go to bed.

This was before the pandemic. It just makes even more sense now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
That’s nearly a 1-3 shot for Trump to win. That’s close to what 538 said last time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

True, but again, if the polls do not change, on Election Day this same model will show the percentages at 93% Biden, 7% Trump, a very different Election Day forecast.
 
My Election Day plan: Vote, drink, go to bed.

This was before the pandemic. It just makes even more sense now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Sounds like a good plan!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Vote like 160,000+ lives could depend on it.

Well, with Kommissar Harris onboard your side is sure to get a few million extra votes this time.... all in states Biden would have won anyway---even if he had picked a potted plant as a VP. LOL!

More votes than you need in states you already have.... sure, BRILLIANT plan... LOL.

_98576220_gettyimages-621811656.jpg
 
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.

It's. Not. A. Prediction.
 
My Election Day plan: Vote, drink, go to bed.

This was before the pandemic. It just makes even more sense now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I have a debilitating fear of tailgating, exacerbated by being in the passenger seat with a driver who's tailgating. Not wanting to be a back seat driver, I'll close my eyes so I don't have to be "that guy." Nope. Doesn't work. In fact, the knowledge that there's tailgating and not being able to see it magnifies the neurosis. In the end I'm forced to be the douche who tells the driver to back off from the car in front of us.
 
Trump still has a 29% chance of winning.


The worst baseball team can occasionally beat the best.

Make sure you vote.

Here's how Nate Silver once put it: if Trump has a 29% chance of winning, then that means that for every 71 universes in which there is a Biden win, there are 29 universes in which there's a Trump win. Looked at in that way, there is absolutely no reason you couldn't end up being in one of those 29 universes.
 
I have a debilitating fear of tailgating, exacerbated by being in the passenger seat with a driver who's tailgating. Not wanting to be a back seat driver, I'll close my eyes so I don't have to be "that guy." Nope. Doesn't work. In fact, the knowledge that there's tailgating and not being able to see it magnifies the neurosis. In the end I'm forced to be the douche who tells the driver to back off from the car in front of us.

Haha. Point taken.

I just know that because of the slow crawl for the results, this will make the 2000 election look pretty mild. So, may as well get some rest and not think about it for a while.
 
It's. Not. A. Prediction.

Part of me thinks we should just indulge these people for our amusement.

"Yes. I personally knew Epstein. You wouldn't believe all the people who were at those parties! /Q"
 
Haha. Point taken.

I just know that because of the slow crawl for the results, this will make the 2000 election look pretty mild. So, may as well get some rest and not think about it for a while.

"We may still get to be a democracy tomorrow morning...or not! Haha! Sleep tight!"
 
"We may still get to be a democracy tomorrow morning...or not! Haha! Sleep tight!"

I don't normally view my world like this, but on this I think: I live in a democratic republic. I can't control what the rest of you dumbasses do with that system.
 
Back
Top Bottom