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FiveThirtyEight just launched their election forecast today. Biden has a 71% chance of winning which

Well, Trump won by winning a few states by the smallest or margins. If Biden carries Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona (on top of the solid blue states then there is just not a conceivable way Trump can win.

Trump won 304 electoral votes, deduct only Florida/Arizona and Pennsylvania from that number and Trump will end up with 244 seats, even if all other states go to the winner of 2016. And 244 isn't going to cut it. Even losing Florida and Arizona without winning democratic states of 2016 isn't going to be enough, that is 40 electoral votes and that would give Trump just 264, not enough to become president.

Biden is in a very good position, let's be honest.
 
Well, Trump won by winning a few states by the smallest or margins. If Biden carries Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona (on top of the solid blue states then there is just not a conceivable way Trump can win.

Trump won 304 electoral votes, deduct only Florida/Arizona and Pennsylvania from that number and Trump will end up with 244 seats, even if all other states go to the winner of 2016. And 244 isn't going to cut it. Even losing Florida and Arizona without winning democratic states of 2016 isn't going to be enough, that is 40 electoral votes and that would give Trump just 264, not enough to become president.

Biden is in a very good position, let's be honest.

Trump will have a larger margin by virtue of having appointed SC justices that have voted down every voting expansion measure and supporting every voting suppression measure. Also, unlike 2016 he has the power to blow up the USPS, which he is currently doing.

You can't remove White House interference in the election as a factor. You have to factor that in.
 
Give up if you want, but then you won’t have a clue as to what is going on. The poll aggregators have the best predictions.

FiveThirtyEight has consistently been one of the best. In 2012 they called every state correctly which no one else could do.

They had a 70/30 call for Clinton in 2016 which they term slightly favored. 50/50 is a tossup. Remember it would have only required about 80,000 votes to swing the other way for Trump to lose. No one can predict the outcome when margins are that close.


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Bingo. 538.com was right-on, in 2016. They called the popular vote just about perfectly. What one needs to remember is 538 does not do a 'prediction'. They offer probability. And in a '2:1' probability assesment, sometimes the '1' comes in. In fact, it comes in 1 out of 3 times! :mrgreen:
 
Bingo. 538.com was right-on, in 2016. They called the popular vote just about perfectly. What one needs to remember is 538 does not do a 'prediction'. They offer probability. And in a '2:1' probability assesment, sometimes the '1' comes in. In fact, it comes in 1 out of 3 times! :mrgreen:

Nate Silver was practically screaming "FAVORED to win" as if that would have any impact on people.
 
Trump will have a larger margin by virtue of having appointed SC justices that have voted down every voting expansion measure and supporting every voting suppression measure. Also, unlike 2016 he has the power to blow up the USPS, which he is currently doing.

You can't remove White House interference in the election as a factor. You have to factor that in.
And that's where the polls & poll aggregators will be off.

Here's the only article I've seen that attempts to quantify this (which I believe might be optimistic, if anything). I started a thread on it:

DP
 
Trump will have a larger margin by virtue of having appointed SC justices that have voted down every voting expansion measure and supporting every voting suppression measure. Also, unlike 2016 he has the power to blow up the USPS, which he is currently doing.

You can't remove White House interference in the election as a factor. You have to factor that in.

Yes, that is certainly a factor. Of course people like Nate Silver have a historical amount of voter suppression built into their models because of the way they were developed. The question is how much more crooked will Trump be able to make this election be than the average, that is hard to determine.


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And that's where the polls & poll aggregators will be off.

Here's the only article I've seen that attempts to quantify this (which I believe might be optimistic, if anything). I started a thread on it:

DP

That's extremely useful...and surprisingly optimistic compared to my 4 point handicap.

No, obviously there shouldn't be any handicap as the result of one party cheating, I'm just saying it's better than my estimate.
 
Yes, that is certainly a factor. Of course people like Nate Silver have a historical amount of voter suppression built into their models because of the way they were developed. The question is how much more crooked will Trump be able to make this election be than the average, that is hard to determine.


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I could be wrong, but I recall Nate Silver specifically stating that he doesn't factor in voter suppression.
 
I could be wrong, but I recall Nate Silver specifically stating that he doesn't factor in voter suppression.

I haven’t listened to him lately, but that would be my guess, because what would he be using as his model for that? Beyond what we know about voter fraud and bad actions in the early parts of the republic through the early 20th century and Jim Crow, there’s no real quantified model for him to use. The data sets just aren’t there. Silver would just be wandering in the dark.


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Trump will have a larger margin by virtue of having appointed SC justices that have voted down every voting expansion measure and supporting every voting suppression measure. Also, unlike 2016 he has the power to blow up the USPS, which he is currently doing.

You can't remove White House interference in the election as a factor. You have to factor that in.

Exactly. Trump now has not only received open foreign interference on his behalf, he also has the entire force of the government he controls. He's openly conspiring with his new PostMaster to sabotage mail delivery between now and the election, while Barr turns a blind eye to that conspiracy and adds another one of his own, the "Durham" investigation, while gutting every Inspector General's office charged with investigating fraud, including election fraud, and manipulating the entire Intelligence community to "classify" any information they discover about election fraud, etc.

It's a giant Election Fraud conspiracy created and maintained by the Executive Branch, and ignored by the GOP Senate and GOP members of congress.

Yeah, sure. Biden's a shoo-in. :(
 
I haven’t listened to him lately, but that would be my guess, because what would he be using as his model for that? Beyond what we little we know about voter fraud and bad actions in the early parts of the republic through the early 20th century and Jim Crow, there’s no real quantified model for him to use. The data sets just aren’t there. Silver would just be wandering in the dark.


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And you would be correct. I tracked down the relevant tweet:

"We've never had to put a disclaimer like this on our forecast before but ... well, 2020."

EfF4qE4XoAcdVu3


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1292947361950564353
 
Did not 2016 teach y'all anything about polls?

They are unreliable.

Only 1 poll from a small California newspaper projected Trump as the winner in 2016 and all of the others said they were nuts.

TRUMP 2020
 
Did not 2016 teach y'all anything about polls?

They are unreliable.

Only 1 poll from a small California newspaper projected Trump as the winner in 2016 and all of the others said they were nuts.

TRUMP 2020

Our country is in good hands with thoughtful voters like this fella.


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Exactly. Trump now has not only received open foreign interference on his behalf, he also has the entire force of the government he controls. He's openly conspiring with his new PostMaster to sabotage mail delivery between now and the election, while Barr turns a blind eye to that conspiracy and adds another one of his own, the "Durham" investigation, while gutting every Inspector General's office charged with investigating fraud, including election fraud, and manipulating the entire Intelligence community to "classify" any information they discover about election fraud, etc.

It's a giant Election Fraud conspiracy created and maintained by the Executive Branch, and ignored by the GOP Senate and GOP members of congress.

Yeah, sure. Biden's a shoo-in. :(

Just keep in mind that a benefit of the federalist system is that King Kong has less influence than he would like in our election system.


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And you would be correct. I tracked down the relevant tweet:

"We've never had to put a disclaimer like this on our forecast before but ... well, 2020."

EfF4qE4XoAcdVu3


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1292947361950564353

So maybe this is what people were complaining about when it came to his model and a so-called “hedging” of bets?

I don’t know what else the guy is supposed to say.


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It's a giant Election Fraud conspiracy created and maintained by the Executive Branch, and ignored by the GOP Senate and GOP members of congress.

Yes... the 2016 election where Obama and Biden spied on the Trump campaign as well as committing other felonies was definitely a "giant Election Fraud conspiracy created and maintained by the Executive Branch".

However, you are wrong to blame the GOP.

It was the democrats behind the whole thing. But they could not beat Trump no matter how hard they tried.

Trump will win in 2020.

Sorry - just realized that I may have taken a line or two out of context! :0
 
Same crap we heard last election:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-in-georgia-and-its-not-even-that-surprising/

I don't know why it is, but polling always skews way left in Georgia before coming back to reality.
Here's 2016:

View attachment 67291280

Because the polls get closer nearer the election and the even the less popular candidate can still win the electoral college.

In other words the polls can be right but no guarantee. Those who gleefully claimed the polls were 'wrong' in 2016 cannot read polls. This far out Biden has a 71% chance of winning. It's still just a chance.
 
Yes... the 2016 election where Obama and Biden spied on the Trump campaign as well as committing other felonies was definitely a "giant Election Fraud conspiracy created and maintained by the Executive Branch".

However, you are wrong to blame the GOP.

It was the democrats behind the whole thing. But they could not beat Trump no matter how hard they tried.

Trump will win in 2020.

Sorry - just realized that I may have taken a line or two out of context! :0

Mail is delayed weeks, maybe months. The USPS Postmaster General is a partisan tool. People will DIE who get their medication in the mail.... of course, those that still have health insurance.

Unemployment rates, is there really anything else to say about this topic?

IRS is behind as there are dozens of delivery trucks with unopened mail that needs attention.

Too many problems caused by Donald Trump and what is his focus? Banning Tik Tok. Promoting a payroll tax cut which does nothing for the unemployed... and building a wall against a country whose citizens are not even trying to enter illegally.
 
Mail is delayed weeks, maybe months. The USPS Postmaster General is a partisan tool. People will DIE who get their medication in the mail.... of course, those that still have health insurance.

Unemployment rates, is there really anything else to say about this topic?

IRS is behind as there are dozens of delivery trucks with unopened mail that needs attention.

Too many problems caused by Donald Trump and what is his focus? Banning Tik Tok. Promoting a payroll tax cut which does nothing for the unemployed... and building a wall against a country whose citizens are not even trying to enter illegally.

"Mail is delayed weeks, maybe months." -- what 3rd world country do you live in?

If I mail a letter at a post office or my local box, it gets to its destination within 1-3 days (first class), whether the destination is next door or clear across the country.

"Unemployment rates" - we are doing great as of the last report, so no - nothing else to say except that the number gets smaller and smaller with each report, so people are going back to work -- millions of them.

You act like Trump fired the millions of people out of work right now. Trump had nothing to do with it. It was the state governors that closed down their states - not Trump.

I'm sure that the IRS is behind. That is why Trump signed the extensions into law so no one will get hit with interest and penalties.

Any other asinine comments or questions?

Bottom line - you hate Trump and you have no idea why.
 
"Mail is delayed weeks, maybe months." -- what 3rd world country do you live in?

If I mail a letter at a post office or my local box, it gets to its destination within 1-3 days (first class), whether the destination is next door or clear across the country.

"Unemployment rates" - we are doing great as of the last report, so no - nothing else to say except that the number gets smaller and smaller with each report, so people are going back to work -- millions of them.

You act like Trump fired the millions of people out of work right now. Trump had nothing to do with it. It was the state governors that closed down their states - not Trump.

I'm sure that the IRS is behind. That is why Trump signed the extensions into law so no one will get hit with interest and penalties.

Any other asinine comments or questions?

Bottom line - you hate Trump and you have no idea why.

Unemployment rates are great?????????????????????

What are you smoking? You must have got it from your dealer, LARRY Kudlow.
 
...he has the power to blow up the USPS, which he is currently doing.

You can't remove White House interference in the election as a factor. You have to factor that in.

:lamo

renderart_cf5d97a3-7143-4fed-964a-ac9fb051e021-2.jpg
 
Everybody needs to vote in this election

Democrats don't get complacent watching the polls and think Biden is a shoe in

That is what happened to Hillary

And the results have been disastrous
 
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