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Final 538 polls in select states

Ikari said:
If he felt that the votes need to be counted, then he wouldn't have been suing states to make sure they end their counting of ballots on the 3rd, lol.
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I am just saying that if Biden wins one of the southern states and is the projected winner by the networks, Trump will go apes**t when he learns that call was made by statisticians, without all the vote being counted. He may have a sudden change of heart.

There really is nothing Trump can do about the counting except throw a temper tantrum, which will only serve to create further divisiveness. To quote the inaugural words of our greater "..... that needs to stop right here and it needs to stop right now...." (the last time I heard that cliche was from a high school coach about our team's sloppy play ---- words of leadership when you have no other words)..
 
Ikari said:
Likely The People.
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You have any idea how that works?

If it goes to courts, what is the precedent for the taxpayer to pay?
 
Rawley said:
And all of your "variables" are based on polls. Again, how did your reliance on polls work for you in 2016?
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The polls were not really inaccurate in 2016. All of them except for Wisconsin were well within margin of error. Even in Wisconsin, Clinton was polling at less than 7% of the vote. So I disagree with the concept of "polls being inaccurate". Polls are generally correct and a reflection of the public's view. In 2018, the polls were dead-on about the Democrats winning back the House. Due to Covid19 and the economy, there are more and more Americans angry at the Trump Administration.
 
upsideguy said:
There really is nothing Trump can do about the counting except throw a temper tantrum, which will only serve to create further divisiveness.
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Trump can tweet about how the election was stolen, much like he did after Cruz won Iowa in 2016. But unless he presents actual evidence of voter fraud, the courts are unlikely going to take it seriously.

Trump's internal polls are well aware, he's unlikely to win.

Even the election comes to down to one state, like Pennsylvania, the courts will unquestionably come into play. Biden can avoid all of this potential chatter, but winning either Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, or North Carolina.
 
Rawley said:
If your point is that polls don't mean shit. I agree with you. You should spread that message with your friends here sporting erections over them.
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I would still rather be 8 runs ahead in the 9th inning than 8 runs behind, which is where the jackass is right now. Wouldn't you agree?
 
Ethel2 said:
I would still rather be 8 runs ahead in the 9th inning than 8 runs behind, which is where the jackass is right now. Wouldn't you agree?
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Your eight run lead is the fantasy sold to you by the folks that sold you Hillary's win in 2016. 14th time, how'd that work out for you?
 
Ikari said:
Likely The People.
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I believe the campaign has to pay those legal fees, since they are the ones bringing any lawsuits or challenges. .
 
Rawley said:
Your eight run lead is the fantasy sold to you by the folks that sold you Hillary's win in 2016. 14th time, how'd that work out for you?
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For the 15th time, this is 2020 not 2016. Nobody cares who won LAST YEAR'S World Series, to complete the baseball analogy. Biden might not win, but he is up 8 runs in the ninth inning. Any supporter of the jackass who says that they would much rather be in the position they find themselves in than in Biden's position is lying. Better to be ahead, wouldn't you agree?
Get ready for a blue wave. Biden will win and the democrats will likely win the Senate too. Hopefully your party will come up with a candidate who is human next time rather than the jackass you are following off the cliff.
 
roberthughey said:
In 2016 Nate Sliver gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning the election.
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Yep, and Trump a 28% chance of winning or roughly 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. Trump barely won with an inside straight. That pretty much makes Silver spot on. If the weatherman tells you there is a 30% chance of rain, and it rains, was he wrong? He told you it might rain. You just chose to read into it that 30% is close to 0%, that was your bad.

Silver also underestimated the Blue Wave of 2018.... suggesting that the Dems would pick up 33 seats. They picked up 40.... but Silver did apply a probability to that, so he wasn't wrong there either.

This time, however, Trump has a 10% chance of winning, not impossible, but an even more substantial long shot then 2016 as 1 in 10 is a much, much larger long hot than 1 in 3 or 1 in 4.
 
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BrotherFease said:
The polls were not really inaccurate in 2016. All of them except for Wisconsin were well within margin of error.
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That's a myth. They were wrong in Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and more.
 
Fivethirtyeight.com has provided a handy analysis addressing the question of "polling error":
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
Nate Silver has also warned that 10 percent is not 0. But, he applied a 3 percent error factor (the worst "misses" of 2016) both ways - for Trump, and for Biden - to see how it would affect the outcome. The results were a narrow Biden win, and a 413 EC vote,11-point blowout not seen since FDR over Hoover. Interesting analysis. (In a previous comment he noted that a 5 percent polling error would be necessary for a Trump win. I believe it is now down to 4.3)
 
Rogue Valley said:
Final 538 polls in select states



Biden has a decent shot at flipping red states Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, or any combination thereof.
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Note that the polls don’t take into account the huge turnout of new voters. My guess is that these are people unhappy with Trump. Charles Cook thinks it will be either a narrow Biden win or a Biden blowout.
 
Rexedgar said:
You have any idea how that works?

If it goes to courts, what is the precedent for the taxpayer to pay?
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I'm not sure, it's just that I never really trust Trump to pay for anything, lol.
 
NWRatCon said:
Fivethirtyeight.com has provided a handy analysis addressing the question of "polling error":
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
Nate Silver has also warned that 10 percent is not 0. But, he applied a 3 percent error factor (the worst "misses" of 2016) both ways - for Trump, and for Biden - to see how it would affect the outcome. The results were a narrow Biden win, and a 413 EC vote,11-point blowout not seen since FDR over Hoover. Interesting analysis. (In a previous comment he noted that a 5 percent polling error would be necessary for a Trump win. I believe it is now down to 4.3)
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I think Silver is spot on. While the jackass somehow still has a shot at it odds are that Biden will be inaugurated on Jan 20 and that the senate will be blue too. Biden is not up by just 5 points: he is up nationally by about 8 points, which is where he has been for months. While the national polls do not elect a president that kind of lead is very difficult to overcome and it indicates broad desire for a change. IMO Biden gets close to 320 electoral votes when all is said and done, and the jackass gets a glass of water and a toothpick on his way out the door.
 
Ethel2 said:
I think Silver is spot on. While the jackass somehow still has a shot at it odds are that Biden will be inaugurated on Jan 20 and that the senate will be blue too. Biden is not up by just 5 points: he is up nationally by about 8 points, which is where he has been for months. While the national polls do not elect a president that kind of lead is very difficult to overcome and it indicates broad desire for a change. IMO Biden gets close to 320 electoral votes when all is said and done, and the jackass gets a glass of water and a toothpick on his way out the door.
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I expect that Biden will be the first President elected by an outright majority since Barack Obama (twice). Republicans tend to forget that.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Final 538 polls in select states
Biden has a decent shot at flipping red states Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, or any combination thereof.
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Based on these polls and recent trends, I predict the following states for Trump.

Arizona: FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6
Florida: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
Georgia: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
Iowa: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
Michigan: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8
Minnesota: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4
Nevada: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
New Hampshire: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1
North Carolina: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9
Ohio: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8 RCP average Biden +1.2
Texas: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1
Wisconsin: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2

The big one is Pennsylvania. I wonder why the big difference between RCP and 538. By any standard, Trump has narrowed the gap rapidly. The question is whether he has taken the lead. It's worth noting that any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin will be enough. Michigan has a new poll with Trump in the lead. Polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin are dated. In spite of the 538 average, I would consider all the states to be in play.

roberthughey said:
Last time I looked 538 had Biden at an 88% chance of winning.
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89 right now. Trump's first hurdle is Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. He needs all three. If he gets them, it becomes a coin flip.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
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Jay59 said:
Based on these polls and recent trends, I predict the following states for Trump.

Arizona: FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6
Florida: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
Georgia: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
Iowa: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
Michigan: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8
Minnesota: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4
Nevada: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
New Hampshire: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1
North Carolina: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9
Ohio: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8 RCP average Biden +1.2
Texas: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1
Wisconsin: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2

The big one is Pennsylvania. I wonder why the big difference between RCP and 538. By any standard, Trump has narrowed the gap rapidly. The question is whether he has taken the lead. It's worth noting that any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin will be enough. Michigan has a new poll with Trump in the lead. Polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin are dated. In spite of the 538 average, I would consider all the states to be in play.
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Enjoy your fantasy for one more day
 
Jay59 said:
Based on these polls and recent trends, I predict the following states for Trump.

Arizona: FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6
Florida: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
Georgia: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
Iowa: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
Michigan: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8
Minnesota: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4
Nevada: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
New Hampshire: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1
North Carolina: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9
Ohio: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8 RCP average Biden +1.2
Texas: FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1
Wisconsin: FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2

The big one is Pennsylvania. I wonder why the big difference between RCP and 538. By any standard, Trump has narrowed the gap rapidly. The question is whether he has taken the lead. It's worth noting that any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin will be enough. Michigan has a new poll with Trump in the lead. Polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin are dated. In spite of the 538 average, I would consider all the states to be in play.


89 right now. Trump's first hurdle is Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. He needs all three. If he gets them, it becomes a coin flip.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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Trump lost the suburban "housewives." Mine hates his guts. A few tens of millions like her are enough to sink him in urbanized states like PA.
 
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