The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.
So a right winger posts on a blog site and suddenly it is factual?
in 2008, CNN ranked number 8 on the list of political polls for accuracy.
The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog
It's not much of a stretch to suggest they're fudging the numbers.
Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans
Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com
They under sampled Independents by 25% and over sampled Democrats by 8%
Fail
Yes, everybody is wrong, Rasmussen is wrong and Gallup is wrong. There is only 1 poll that is right, the one where the actual election takes place. Only problem is that the republicans are trying to keep as much people from voting (especially Obama voters) in order to try and steal this election.
Oh they'll believe anything. They think John McCain is the current president of the United States.
I normally try to post intelligent comments but this people posting WAY bias BS and citing it as if it were remotely credible is getting very annoying.
This assertion is so far from the truth - and it is KNOWINGLY false by everyone who utters it - that it is completely reasonable to call it a lie and to call anyone making the assertion a bald-faced liar.
People making this claim are dishonest to the core and unworthy of civil debate.
My job here is done.
Can you name even one single eligible person that Republlicans are trying to keep from voting?Yes, everybody is wrong, Rasmussen is wrong and Gallup is wrong. There is only 1 poll that is right, the one where the actual election takes place. Only problem is that the republicans are trying to keep as much people from voting (especially Obama voters) in order to try and steal this election.
Can you name even one single eligible person that Republlicans are trying to keep from voting?
Or are you just lying you f'n ass off?
Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com
They under sampled Independents by 25% and over sampled Democrats by 8%
Fail
So in other words, Bron is saying:
Actually this appears to be more a question of math.
If Obama is winning 96% of Democrats
Romney is winning 97% of Republicans
And Romney is also up 14 points among Independents
Then the same poll that records these things giving an 8-point net lead to Obama must significantly overcount Democrats relative to the two other groups.
Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com
They under sampled Independents by 25% and over sampled Democrats by 8%
Fail
I read the poll and looked at the polling data. 441 registered democrats to 397 registered republicans. With a margin of error as high as 5%...the poll is in a word...useless.And have you read the actual poll.. because the guy who wrote the article CLEARLY has not.
Can you name even one single eligible person that Republlicans are trying to keep from voting?
Or are you just lying you f'n ass off?
96 year old TN woman denied a "free" photo ID.
Dorothy Cooper is a 96-year old African-American woman from Tennessee. Born before women even had the right to vote, she's now been voting religiously for some 70 years without a problem, even before the Voting Rights of 1965 during the the Jim Crow-era in the South. At least until now.
The newly-elected GOP legislature in her state has rammed through a disenfranchising polling-place Photo ID restriction law which has now made it incredibly difficult for Cooper to cast her legal vote, just like some 500,000 legal and largely Democratic-leaning voters in Tennessee.
As Rachel Maddow details below, Cooper has never had a driver's license. So, at 96 years old, she worked to make her way to the DMV in advance of next year's election and presented her birth certificate and all sorts of other identifying documents in order to receive the supposedly "free" state ID she is legally entitled to receive under the new law so that she can once again cast a vote next year.
However, as Cooper has gotten married since birth and her name has thus changed in the bargain, she was denied the ID, as she was unable to find and produce her marriage certificate to prove that she was who she said she was.4
The show did not mention the denouement to Cooper's story, when she obtained a voter ID and was able to cast her ballot in the state's presidential primary last March.
Chattanooga resident Dorothy Cooper unaware of being included in season finale of "The Newsroom" | Nooga.com
Dorothy Cooper, woman in photo ID snag, finally gets to vote | timesfreepress.com
Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com
They under sampled Independents by 25% and over sampled Democrats by 8%
Fail
I read the poll and looked at the polling data. 441 registered democrats to 397 registered republicans. With a margin of error as high as 5%...the poll is in a word...useless.
Which hardly explains Gallup or Rasmussen (the Republican pollster) or the WSJ polls, does it? Is this the new Republican refrain - if our guy is behind, it must be the fault of those dirty, crooked pollsters?
Lots of luck with that one.
Any time you ask ANY question with a biased sampling, your poll results will by nature BE biased. Yes. i read the poll. I read their 'independent' sampling. Their results are skewed. Whether that is intentional or accidental...meh...but it doesnt change the reality. If you ask 50 more of one group than the other the same questions you will get skewed results. Period.Are you sure you read it? Because that is not what it states. I would agree that they are not exactly clear on where they used what sample, and it takes a tad extra decoding to understand where what is used.. but the sampling was 1022 people asked on who they would vote for. Your numbers was for additional questions specific for Obama and Romney voters and from a different smaller sample.
Now is CNN correct in the lead or is CNN correct in A lead? Maybe not on the scope of the lead, but they are certainly correct on a lead.... even Rasmussen shows Obama ahead and they are biased towards the right as Nate Silver has stated many times.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?