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Fed GDP tracker shows the economy could be on the brink of a recession

The economy has taken quite the external shocks from high energy prices this year.

What would Republicans do differently to promote economic growth?
They don't have a plan except BDS

Like that Trump health care plan, it's coming, any time now

Republicans don't offer real solutions, just more of the same
 
They don't have a plan except BDS

Like that Trump health care plan, it's coming, any time now

Republicans don't offer real solutions, just more of the same
Don’t forget infrastructure week.
 
The economy has taken quite the external shocks from high energy prices this year.

What would Republicans do differently to promote economic growth?
Crickets

Did we expect any new ideas from the GOP

Two crap parties, two terrible choices

But i will be damn if i wull vote for any Trump arse sucker who sold the Constition out for a power grab.
 
Don’t forget infrastructure week.
Biden's signature legislative victory, thus far

I will give him props, the Dems got it thru

Republicans could not get it thru, too busy trying to take away Healthcare from the impoverished.
 
The CEOs of the major banks and investment firms are predicting a mammoth recession with some financial advisors talking about the possibility of a full blown depression. It’s coming. There’s no doubt about it.
And Biden is the cause of it all.
 
The current level of inflation is what was considered acceptable during Reagan’s terms.
Reagan also granted amnesty to millions of illegels, they have left Reagan's legacy in the rear view mirror, along with there integrity.
 
My God guys
The FED is fighting inflation. They do that by raising interest rates. This cools the economy thereby reducing demand and cooling inflation. Past history shows that when the Fed acts in this fashion it throws the economy into recession. They have been warning us for months. No surprise here.

Just remember the president does not control the federal reserve.

Does the chair of the Federal Reserve Bank report directly to the president?

This can include meeting and testifying before Congress, monitoring and managing interest rates, and promoting maximum employment. Although the Fed chair is an enormously powerful position, there is no direct order that is taken from the President as the Fed is independent.

The Fed has just started raising interest rates, and was still buying bonds in Q1.

The president renominated the Fed Chairman who was slow to raise rates and promoted another Fed member to the job of Vice Chairperson. We might also remember that the Fed's former boss is now the Secretary of the Treasury. Hard to consider this an independent Fed.
 
The economy has taken quite the external shocks from high energy prices this year.

What would Republicans do differently to promote economic growth?
Produce more oil. Invest in our oil and natural gas in the billions under condition they lower prices below cost.

just lower gas prices alone will assuage inflation because shipping expenses will decrease, putting downward pressure on prices on everythig else.

we can pay for this by cutting Aid to ukraine.
 
The current level of inflation is what was considered acceptable during Reagan’s terms.
No.

the CPI under reagan used a different calculation for inflation than the CPI used today, and the difference is rather wide.
 
No.

the CPI under reagan used a different calculation for inflation than the CPI used today, and the difference is rather wide.
I know of no change in the calculation, they changed the basket of goods, which doesn’t change the number.
 
Produce more oil. Invest in our oil and natural gas in the billions under condition they lower prices below cost.

just lower gas prices alone will assuage inflation because shipping expenses will decrease, putting downward pressure on prices on everythig else.

we can pay for this by cutting Aid to ukraine.

First oil companies are private companies. Our government can't tell them how to run their business. That is unless you want socialism.

In the recent past oil companies have really taken a hit. The shale oil boom/bust and covid. Nobody was coming to their rescue when gas was $2.00 a gallon.

Doesn't matter how much oil we produce domestically. We aren't going to get our oil cheaper. Oil prices are set globally.

Now why would an oil company want lower prices for their product.

Largest oil and gas producers made close to $100bn in first quarter of 2022​


Only way to bring the price down is all of us use less. That is what happened during the covid lockdown
 
Produce more oil. Invest in our oil and natural gas in the billions under condition they lower prices below cost.

just lower gas prices alone will assuage inflation because shipping expenses will decrease, putting downward pressure on prices on everythig else.

we can pay for this by cutting Aid to ukraine.
What else?
 
I know of no change in the calculation, they changed the basket of goods, which doesn’t change the number.

They changed the calculation on some basket items which have had a material change to the numbers.
 
What else?
i don't know how to write it all without spending far too much time on it. that's a starting point.

other things we would have to do is raise interest rates, lower our national debt, force the saudis to accept only the dollar for oil by any means necessary(and i mean, get the nukes ready if they buddy up to putin. Play hardball with them). Negotiate with russia and ukraine to get wheat and fertilizer ASAP, because once you see food prices in october, because the sanctions cut off our fertilizer imports, you're going to see the entire economy collapse like the twin towers. You may hate russia to the bone, but if you want to eat, you'll want to play nice with them.
 
First oil companies are private companies. Our government can't tell them how to run their business. That is unless you want socialism.

In the recent past oil companies have really taken a hit. The shale oil boom/bust and covid. Nobody was coming to their rescue when gas was $2.00 a gallon.

Doesn't matter how much oil we produce domestically. We aren't going to get our oil cheaper. Oil prices are set globally.

Now why would an oil company want lower prices for their product.
using less oil isn't going to lower their expenses.

you know what does lower their expenses? firing people. And that's what'll happen if people use less oil. If you want the price to be cheaper.....no, strike that......if you want to help the goddamn economy for EVERYONE, you'll want to do anything to lower expenses. The cost of drilling, the cost of shipping, the cost of ethanol, the cost of deisal, the cost of refining, etc. etc. All of which have gone up because of the economic shut downs during the pandemic.


Largest oil and gas producers made close to $100bn in first quarter of 2022​

None of which come from you. They come from gas stations. These are franchises. these producers are making money from selling oil to an open market. the prices are up because the cost of the final product getting to the gas station is so high, as it is everywhere. These gas stations, stores, etc, are barely scraping by as it is.
 
Darkwizard12
Wow
Quite a tirade
But I will have to disagree
 
Well, get used to it. That's the normal price for gasoline at this point. It's just a continuation of the underlying trend from 2000-2007. Gas prices were brought back down by repeated economic meltdowns, not any drastic changes to production.
Sounds like a great Democratic Party campaign ad “get used to it!”

Lol. How about no!

And this is a lie, Trump made the economy great and gas was cheap. It took Joe less then a year to destroy this. The fact Trump was president proves your theory is a lie.
 
The current level of inflation is what was considered acceptable during Reagan’s terms.
LOLOLOLOL watching you people squirm is so fun, you can’t justify why after Trump ran such a great economy you’ve pissed it away in less then a year after promising dementia Joe meant the “adults were back in charge” and now you’re so desperate you want to re-litigate the 1980 election? Pffft tell me where that gets you.
 
LOLOLOLOL watching you people squirm is so fun, you can’t justify why after Trump ran such a great economy you’ve pissed it away in less then a year after promising dementia Joe meant the “adults were back in charge” and now you’re so desperate you want to re-litigate the 1980 election? Pffft tell me where that gets you.

Wow

Bet you really believe that.
 
Yay! Another “I hope the US economy crashes!” thread.

And of course the anti-Americans cheering in this thread in hopes for a recession.

I hope we can stave off the recession and bounce back.
 
The functions of the Federal Reserve of the United States of America are detailed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/the-fed-explained.htm. The rub comes from 4. Promoting Financial System Stability. Full employment and inflation control are to some degree mutually exclusive. So are inflation and recession.

The actions of the Fed are not under the direct control of the President of the United States of America. Nor, for that matter, the Congress of the United States of America.

Regards, stay safe 'n well 'n remember the Big 5.
 
Reagan also granted amnesty to millions of illegels, they have left Reagan's legacy in the rear view mirror, along with there integrity.
Which part of Simpson-Mazzoli did you disagree with? That bill was one of those compromises that people are always screaming for and likely a major reason why Congress isn't trusted to negotiate in good faith on immigration.
 
LOLOLOLOL watching you people squirm is so fun, you can’t justify why after Trump ran such a great economy you’ve pissed it away in less then a year after promising dementia Joe meant the “adults were back in charge” and now you’re so desperate you want to re-litigate the 1980 election? Pffft tell me where that gets you.
Trump didn’t “run” the economy, no more than a rooster made the sun rise. Trump sailed on the economic waves Obama created.

You can’t identify any economic policies that made inflation rise.
 
The organization that dates US business cycles doesn't use two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a metric for determining recessions.



Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dates?

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession from the peak in December 2007 to the trough in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first and second quarters of 2009. Real GDI declined for the final three quarters of 2001 and for five of the six quarters in the 2007–2009 recession.

Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?

A: There are several reasons. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but consider a range of indicators. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. The NBER definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in economic activity." Thus real GDP could decline by relatively small amounts in two consecutive quarters without warranting the determination that a peak had occurred. Third, our main focus is on the monthly chronology, which requires consideration of monthly indicators. Fourth, in examining the behavior of production on a quarterly basis, where real GDP data are available, we give equal weight to real GDI. The difference between GDP and GDI—called the “statistical discrepancy”—was particularly important in the recessions of 2001 and 2007–2009.

I could not care much less what NBER thinks about almost anything.
They are just another, private think tank full of near-useless human beings who get paid to sit around and try and think of something noteworthy to say to keep their funding (and their swimming pools) going.
The well-established definition of a recession is two, consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

You wanna go along with what NBER thinks?
Go right ahead.

Bye now.
 
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