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FBI quietly changed violent crime data to show increase, not decrease, from 2021 to 2022

AZRWinger said:
That's right, COVID delayed reporting of violent crime by law enforcement. It just happened to be some of the worst crime areas.
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AZRWinger said:
So what if the politicized FBI cooked the books in favor of the Biden/Harris regime, Orange Man Bad.
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Which is about as far as the thinking goes. They don't care when politicized US federal agencies are cooking the books in their favor, so unprincipled they.
 
Nomad4Ever said:
This is the most current data the FBI has on crime on their website as of today
View attachment 67538135
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And the FBI released a statement saying the are updating their data and the method of collection. Headed toward a monthly report rather than yearly.
The numbers on the website have been off for several years and they are now admitting the collection method and the data are not accurate and so they are making a change.
It's been false, and likely intentionally so. Why change now? Well, Trumps showing a lead of about 2% nationally in several polls. I bet the FBI director and some of his upper management would like to have a shot at keeping their jobs if Trump wins. This kind of revelation is not new. It's just a shame that it's taking to 19 days before the election to make it public.
 
Nomad4Ever said:
The FBI are "libs" now?!

This is like the "Democrats rigged the election" BS. If they really did how could Trump possibly win in 2024? Why even vote?

If the FBI can just manufacture whatever number they want...why do you believe this new number? Why is this new number suddenly trustworthy and you accept it without any second thoughts at all?
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"They lie when they say something I dont like and tell the truth when I want to believe it".
 
Jredbaron96 said:
They didn't "lie", they regularly update their information and make adjustments when necessary.
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Exactly, the lie would be a failure to update data as data becomes available.
 
Slartibartfast said:
www.brennancenter.org

Myths and Realities: Understanding Recent Trends in Violent Crime

The recent rise in crime is extraordinarily complex. Policymakers and the public should not jump to conclusions or expect easy answers.
www.brennancenter.org www.brennancenter.org

The effects have been studied for a few years now.
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How could they study the Covid-related causes for increased crime "for a few years now" when the FBI only switched from saying that (paraphrasing) "crime went down" to "actually, crime went up" less than a month ago? :unsure:
 
Integrityrespec said:
It's been false, and likely intentionally so. Why change now? Well, Trumps showing a lead of about 2% nationally in several polls. I bet the FBI director and some of his upper management would like to have a shot at keeping their jobs if Trump wins.
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That's the dumbest conspiracy theory I've heard in the last few months, which is pretty impressive considering the current political environment.

"likely intentionally so" my ass. Likely based on what? A prophetic dream you had?

Hmmm what is more likely. The FBI their data collection method because they found a way to gather it more accurately...or their is a massive conspiracy involving thousands of government worker from the top of the FBI all the way down to low level government workers collecting data that have all been coordinating their efforts and conspiring for years to falsify data. And in all this time none of these thousands of people have ever gathered any evidence of this plot and gone to the press or anonymously leaked the plan. And the results of all this effort are they managed to fake the data by single digit percentage points. But now suddenly after years of effort they get cold feet because Trump *might* win and if he wins he *might* fire them.

Yeah idk it really is a tossup.
 
Hello My Son said:
How could they study the Covid-related causes for increased crime "for a few years now" when the FBI only switched from saying that (paraphrasing) "crime went down" to "actually, crime went up" less than a month ago? :unsure:
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Because data was studied with datasets available at the time. I expect there will be revised studies (probably at least for the next decade, but probably much longer) as well.

That's how science works. Things are looked at again when new data or methods become available.
 
 
Nomad4Ever said:
The FBI are "libs" now?!
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What do you mean now? The FBI was a key player in promoting the Democrat campaign of smear and persecution against Trump.
Nomad4Ever said:
This is like the "Democrats rigged the election" BS. If they really did how could Trump possibly win in 2024? Why even vote?
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There it is, discourage political opponents from voting is the Democrat version of support for democracy.

Nomad4Ever said:
If the FBI can just manufacture whatever number they want...why do you believe this new number? Why is this new number suddenly trustworthy and you accept it without any second thoughts at all?
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Democrats touted the FBI violent crime number as fact without question because it fed into their confirmation bias. Now when we get the correct numbers it's questionable. Brilliant.
 
Slartibartfast said:
Because data was studied with datasets available at the time. I expect there will be revised studies (probably at least for the next decade, but probably much longer) as well.

That's how science works.
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Oh, I'm well aware of how research and data analysis works, as I've practiced it professionally and have degrees in it.

The datasets from collective crime rate stats come from the DOJ/FBI, though, and they didn't show a crime increase, so how could anyone be studying reasons for a crime increase that wasn't being shown in the datasets available at that time. That's definitively NOT how science works.
 
Integrityrespec said:
Oddly the non-lie was in favor of the Biden/Harris administration. Trump's been claiming crime was up and it looks like he was correct.
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Funny how that works. Always cutting in favor of the Dems. As if it were planned or coordinated or something. 🤔
 
Napoleon said:
Turns out Trump was right and the “fact checkers” were wrong. From crime to employment…these aren’t small corrections. What’s the deal with agencies fabricating favorable statistics for Biden/Harris?

FBI quietly changed violent crime data to show increase, not decrease, from 2021 to 2022

cbsaustin.com cbsaustin.com
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The net result is that over the last two years, the total number of violent crimes is lower than we thought it was.

violent crimes were significantly over reported in 2021, according to this data.

The increase to the 2022 numbers from what had been reported was barely meaningful.

2021 had lower violent crime than 2019. 2022 had about the same as 2019.
 
Hello My Son said:
Oh, I'm well aware of how research and data analysis works, as I've practiced it professionally and have degrees in it.
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As do I. My domain is in medical data and predictive analytics.
Hello My Son said:
The datasets from collective crime rate stats come from the DOJ/FBI, though, and they didn't show a crime increase, so how could anyone be studying reasons for a crime increase that wasn't being shown in the datasets available at that time. That's definitively NOT how science works.
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If you are in the professional field then surely you should be aware that data can be updated or can often be imperfect, but you work with what you have at the time.

In terms of science though, that is indeed how it works. For example, the theory of the big bang is being much more closely looked at due to revised microwave, gravity wave, etc data that we have gotten in the last two years. It seems to be your contention that in the days of Hubble and before James Webb, somehow the science of cosmology didn't make advances.

Similarly in my professional world. I get new extracts from EPIC (mychart) monthly and there are times I have to update models, processes, or aggregate stats. Its simply how it works.
 
around 16-20 million guns are purchased in the USA each year

in the last 4 years, that's around what, 65-70 million? and crime has decreased ?

so much for "more guns are bad" argument huh ?
 
Slartibartfast said:
As do I. My domain is in medical data and predictive analytics.

If you are in the professional field then surely you should be aware that data can be updated or can often be imperfect, but you work with what you have at the time.

In terms of science though, that is indeed how it works. For example, the theory of the big bang is being much more closely looked at due to revised microwave, gravity wave, etc data that we have gotten in the last two years. It seems to be your contention that in the days of Hubble and before James Webb, somehow the science of cosmology didn't make advances.

Similarly in my professional world. I get new extracts from EPIC (mychart) monthly and there are times I have to update models, processes, or aggregate stats. Its simply how it works.
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I can't argue with any of that, but my main point is this: If from 2022 until September of 2024, all crime data publishers were saying there was a DECREASE of violent crime in those past years of analysis, then how could any researcher have been studying the INCREASE of violent crime that wasn't even being demonstrated in the available data?

The data in question here wasn't updated until last month, and it wasn't truly publicly released until October 10. Up until that point in time, the data for the post-Covid era was showing that crime did not increase. So the fact that data in general is usually updated is true, but this particular data was not until very recently.

Edit: Or perhaps you're suggesting that the researchers in question were using projective indicators in their analysis and saying that the FBI data was incorrect and SHOULD be showing an increase rather than a decrease. Is that what you're getting at?
 
 
Jredbaron96 said:
It's almost like from 2020 on there was a major disruption to America. I bet if we think real hard about it, we can try to come up with what it was.
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Who are you even talking at?
 
Hello My Son said:
Where did I say that Covid had no impact on anything?

Stop making things up.
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If you believe that, why did you post the quote without that commentary? You even bolded it for emphasis.
 
Integrityrespec said:
Oddly the non-lie was in favor of the Biden/Harris administration. Trump's been claiming crime was up and it looks like he was correct.
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trump knew more than the professional law enforcement, about crime.

He really is the smartest.

1729173029038.webp
 
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