Fall Nights Are Warming in Our Changing Climate

[Media_Truth]

This recently-introduced interactive graphic allows the user to enter the US city of choice and see the Fall temperature anomaly. Climate Central tends to use NOAA data as it's source for temperatures.

Fall Nights Are Warming in Our Changing Climate | Climate Central



Fall is a season of transition and big swings in weather; snow has already fallen in the Front Range of the Rockies, while warm and humid conditions hung over the East Coast as recently as last week. As the climate changes, fall is not as cool as it used to be, and cooler weather is being delayed until later in the season. This change affects the growing season, the allergy season, the insect population, and fall foliage. We expanded our previous October low temperature analysis to include the entire fall season and found that for the 244 cities in the U.S., 83 percent have average fall low temperatures on the rise.

 

[ttwtt78640]

That may well be due to Phoenix, AZ adding nearly a milion people (tripling its population) and growing from the 20th largest US city to the 5th largest US city during that time period. Looking at a US city which lost population during that time period, like Baltimore, MD, one sees a different picture.

 

[DaveFagan]

All is OK. Our Great Leader has deemed science related to Global Warrming a fraud and if he is wrong says it is too late to do anything about it. It will probably require a Nuclear f 4wheel drive truck to pull his head out of his rectum. I am prejudiced by my beliefs based upon logic, reason, math, science and the fact that it is getting warmer outside. Might try turning the heat down, eh? Nak, that's too simple and besides it cuts the profit stream.
/

 

[bubbabgone]

This recently-introduced interactive graphic allows the user to enter the US city of choice and see the Fall temperature anomaly. Climate Central tends to use NOAA data as it's source for temperatures.

Fall Nights Are Warming in Our Changing Climate | Climate Central

View attachment 67243668

Fall is a season of transition and big swings in weather; snow has already fallen in the Front Range of the Rockies, while warm and humid conditions hung over the East Coast as recently as last week. As the climate changes, fall is not as cool as it used to be, and cooler weather is being delayed until later in the season. This change affects the growing season, the allergy season, the insect population, and fall foliage. We expanded our previous October low temperature analysis to include the entire fall season and found that for the 244 cities in the U.S., 83 percent have average fall low temperatures on the rise.

How and where are the temperature readings taken? From within the cities? Far outside the cities? Cities are notorious heat sinks. If a city grows in size and population it becomes hotter and retains the heat.

 

[longview]

I am not sure Phoenix is a good representative of AGW changes, due to other factors,
but in the US fall minimum temperatures are up a bit.
The question should really be why is the minimum still increasing faster than the maximum.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/natio...ase=10&firsttrendyear=1895&lasttrendyear=2018
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/natio...ase=10&firsttrendyear=1895&lasttrendyear=2018

 

[Tom Horn]

This recently-introduced interactive graphic allows the user to enter the US city of choice and see the Fall temperature anomaly. Climate Central tends to use NOAA data as it's source for temperatures.

Fall Nights Are Warming in Our Changing Climate | Climate Central

View attachment 67243668

Fall is a season of transition and big swings in weather; snow has already fallen in the Front Range of the Rockies, while warm and humid conditions hung over the East Coast as recently as last week. As the climate changes, fall is not as cool as it used to be, and cooler weather is being delayed until later in the season. This change affects the growing season, the allergy season, the insect population, and fall foliage. We expanded our previous October low temperature analysis to include the entire fall season and found that for the 244 cities in the U.S., 83 percent have average fall low temperatures on the rise.

No. They are not. I was born and raised in the mid Atlantic states. I have lived here in TEXAS now for 27 years, staying in MASS over just one winter. This autumn in Texas it has never been this cold for this long so early in the ending months of the year. Usually it goes from the low 90s right before Christmas to a chilly 60s after Christmas. Well hell. It’s not even December yet this year, and it got down to the upper 30s twice so far.

 

[Jack Hays]

Climate Central = advocacy organization

When scientists become advocates, advocacy is presented as science.

 

[Media_Truth]

How and where are the temperature readings taken? From within the cities? Far outside the cities? Cities are notorious heat sinks. If a city grows in size and population it becomes hotter and retains the heat.

From NOAA's website:

About the Analyses
DATA SOURCE: River Forecast Centers ~5000 stations per day, including ~1500 stations from the Hydrologic Automated Data System (except above 5km altitude), and Climate Assessment Data Base ~several hundred stations per day. Climatologies used to calculate the anomalies were updated to use the 1981-2010 climatology dataset as of August 5, 2011.

RESOLUTION: 0.5 degree x 0.5 degree

DOMAIN: 20N - 60N; 140W - 60W

FORMAT: The format is sequential 32-bit IEEE floating point created on a big_endian platform (e.g. cray, sun, sgi and hp). The undefined (missing) value is 9999.

WINDOW: Day 1 analysis is valid for the window from 12Z on day 0 to 12Z on day 1; because of report receipt timing, daily minima are available 1 day earlier than the maxima and the means.

ANALYSIS SCHEME: Modified Cressman (1959) scheme (Glahn et al. 1985; Charba et al. 1992). Minimum stations for analysis: 350. If the number of stations is fewer than the minimum, the analysis is not performed for that day.

QUALITY CONTROL: Climatological standard deviation check. If a reported value is more than 4 standard deviations removed from the historical distribution, the value is omitted from the analysis.

 

[Media_Truth]

Climate Central = advocacy organization

When scientists become advocates, advocacy is presented as science.

They use NOAA data, which you quote when it is convenient for your Denier Rhetoric.

 

[Jack Hays]

They use NOAA data, which you quote when it is convenient for your Denier Rhetoric.

No problem. As #2 and #6 demonstrate, it's not the data source but the cherry-picking that reveals the advocacy.

 

[Media_Truth]

No. They are not. I was born and raised in the mid Atlantic states. I have lived here in TEXAS now for 27 years, staying in MASS over just one winter. This autumn in Texas it has never been this cold for this long so early in the ending months of the year. Usually it goes from the low 90s right before Christmas to a chilly 60s after Christmas. Well hell. It’s not even December yet this year, and it got down to the upper 30s twice so far.

A couple points. First, this is MINIMUM TEMPs, which are usually nighttime temps that determine the change of season. Secondly, the fact that you perceive this Autumn to be cooler, does not a trend make. Even if is cooler, and I see no empirical evidence from you, it certainly doesn't disprove the NOAA dataset. Every TX city I checked was above normal. Texas at a glance:

Dallas +3.7
Amarillo +2.3
Houston +4.1
San Antonio +3.1
Austin +2.5
Lubbock +1.4

 

[bubbabgone]

From NOAA's website:

About the Analyses
DATA SOURCE: River Forecast Centers ~5000 stations per day, including ~1500 stations from the Hydrologic Automated Data System (except above 5km altitude), and Climate Assessment Data Base ~several hundred stations per day. Climatologies used to calculate the anomalies were updated to use the 1981-2010 climatology dataset as of August 5, 2011.

RESOLUTION: 0.5 degree x 0.5 degree

DOMAIN: 20N - 60N; 140W - 60W

FORMAT: The format is sequential 32-bit IEEE floating point created on a big_endian platform (e.g. cray, sun, sgi and hp). The undefined (missing) value is 9999.

WINDOW: Day 1 analysis is valid for the window from 12Z on day 0 to 12Z on day 1; because of report receipt timing, daily minima are available 1 day earlier than the maxima and the means.

ANALYSIS SCHEME: Modified Cressman (1959) scheme (Glahn et al. 1985; Charba et al. 1992). Minimum stations for analysis: 350. If the number of stations is fewer than the minimum, the analysis is not performed for that day.

QUALITY CONTROL: Climatological standard deviation check. If a reported value is more than 4 standard deviations removed from the historical distribution, the value is omitted from the analysis.

And the relevance to what Climate Central (I almost said Comedy Central) wrote about city temps and my comment is ... what?

 

[Media_Truth]

Climate Central = advocacy organization

When scientists become advocates, advocacy is presented as science.

The only bias here is your lack of insight. The original thread post stated that 83% of American Cities are running warmer minimum Fall Temps. That means that 17% are not. It certainly wouldn't be difficult to find one of those 17% (i.e. Baltimore). And as usual, you'll point to those exceptions, and say, "See - we're cooling".

 

[Jack Hays]

The only bias here is your lack of insight. The original thread post stated that 83% of American Cities are running warmer minimum Fall Temps. That means that 17% are not. It certainly wouldn't be difficult to find one of those 17% (i.e. Baltimore). And as usual, you'll point to those exceptions, and say, "See - we're cooling".

That's because we are cooling.

 

[Visbek]

That may well be due to Phoenix, AZ adding nearly a milion people (tripling its population) and growing from the 20th largest US city to the 5th largest US city during that time period....

Or, it might not.

The site is using NOAA data, which adjusts for urban heat island effects, and is most likely using the temperature station sited at the airport anyway. Thus, these kinds of temperature measures generally do not reflect the influence of population growth.

For example: Detroit lost more than half its population since 1970, but temperatures still went up by 4.3F.

Or, if we look at a rural area like Cochise County in Arizona, minimum temperatures have increased significantly since 1970. (N.B. unlike the link in the OP, this is not specifically fall night temperatures.)



There is plenty of data to show that temperatures are on the rise, this is just a tool which lets people see one way it is affecting where they live.

 

[Visbek]

How and where are the temperature readings taken? From within the cities? Far outside the cities? Cities are notorious heat sinks. If a city grows in size and population it becomes hotter and retains the heat.

If you're curious, you can look up temperature stations at NOAA
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/findstation

Phoenix is probably at the airport, which is going to be largely unaffected by urban heat effects. NOAA also applies adjustments to the data to correct for urban heat island effects (and separate adjustments to clean up past data).

As noted above, population size isn't what is causing temperatures to rise -- as noted by Detroit losing over half its population, while night minimum fall temperatures still went up by 4.3F.

All of these types of questions were asked long ago, and the people working on these numbers are well aware of all sorts of issues -- urban heat, changes in instrumentation, potential issues with past equipment, missing data, even biases by changing the time of day when the data is collected and averaged.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Or, it might not.

The site is using NOAA data, which adjusts for urban heat island effects, and is most likely using the temperature station sited at the airport anyway. Thus, these kinds of temperature measures generally do not reflect the influence of population growth.

For example: Detroit lost more than half its population since 1970, but temperatures still went up by 4.3F.

Or, if we look at a rural area like Cochise County in Arizona, minimum temperatures have increased significantly since 1970. (N.B. unlike the link in the OP, this is not specifically fall night temperatures.)

View attachment 67243684

There is plenty of data to show that temperatures are on the rise, this is just a tool which lets people see one way it is affecting where they live.

OK, but that shows a huge (100%?) variation just inside the state of AZ.

 

[Media_Truth]

OK, but that shows a huge (100%?) variation just inside the state of AZ.

The focus of this thread is not just AZ, but since you mentioned it. Here is the data for Arizona:
Phoenix +7.1
Tucson +4.7
Yuma +5.6
Prescott +2.8
Flagstaff +2.4

When I look at this data, I see it fairly close - with all being positive. The two closest outliers are Prescott and Flagstaff, and both of those are at a much high altitude. Living in Colorado, I can tell you that mountainous temperatures are more apt to be cooler at night, and more consistent in that coolness.

 

[Media_Truth]

That's because we are cooling.

Hey Jack, did you Photoshop, and extend your line at the end? Didn't know you were so artistic:mrgreen: Unfortunately fabricated artwork is not science. But I wouldn't expect you to understand that, without a science degree. But it's interesting that you are accusing other of fabricating and cherrypicking data.:roll:

 

[Jack Hays]

Hey Jack, did you Photoshop, and extend your line at the end? Didn't know you were so artistic:mrgreen: Unfortunately fabricated artwork is not science. But I wouldn't expect you to understand that, without a science degree. But it's interesting that you are accusing other of fabricating and cherrypicking data.:roll:

The graph is unaltered from the UAH site.

 

[Media_Truth]

The graph is unaltered from the UAH site.

Oh, that's an arrow. My BAD Jack. But now we can address your COOLING theory. Seventeen of the eighteen warmest years in modern history have recorded since 2000. 2016 was the warmest, and 2017 was the 3rd warmest. BTW, your graph is satellite data, versus the thread-topic NOAA graph, which are global surface temperatures. They're fairly close, but not apples and apples, when it comes to correlation.

 

[Jack Hays]

Oh, that's an arrow. My BAD Jack. But now we can address your COOLING theory. Seventeen of the eighteen warmest years in modern history have recorded since 2000. 2016 was the warmest, and 2017 was the 3rd warmest. BTW, your graph is satellite data, versus the thread-topic NOAA graph, which are global surface temperatures. They're fairly close, but not apples and apples, when it comes to correlation.

2016>2017>2018> . . . .
With the Sun approaching minimum the prospect is for years, perhaps decades, of falling temperatures. That has begun.

 

[Media_Truth]

2016>2017>2018> . . . .
With the Sun approaching minimum the prospect is for years, perhaps decades, of falling temperatures. That has begun.

2016 --- the WARMEST ever!
2017 --- The 3rd Warmest ever
2018 --- On track for the 4th Warmest ever

Seventeen of the Eighteen warmest years ever, after 2000.

Anybody besides Jack think we're cooling?

 

[ttwtt78640]

The focus of this thread is not just AZ, but since you mentioned it. Here is the data for Arizona:
Phoenix +7.1
Tucson +4.7
Yuma +5.6
Prescott +2.8
Flagstaff +2.4

When I look at this data, I see it fairly close - with all being positive. The two closest outliers are Prescott and Flagstaff, and both of those are at a much high altitude. Living in Colorado, I can tell you that mountainous temperatures are more apt to be cooler at night, and more consistent in that coolness.

I can agree that the numbers are all positive but not close - while noting that 7.1 is nearly 3X more than 2.4 and the 'outliers' are far closer to each other than the 'norms' are to each other.

 

[Media_Truth]

I can agree that the numbers are all positive but not close - while noting that 7.1 is nearly 3X more than 2.4 and the 'outliers' are far closer to each other than the 'norms' are to each other.

View it how you like. Are you saying the NOAA is fabricating data? The long range patterns are the important consideration, not micro-differences.