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Kandahar said:For any naysayers or for those of you who are unsure, I present you with the Drake Equation for calculating the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Real McCoy said:Some of these estimates are extremely optimistic and questionable...
ne = the average number of planets (or rather satelites; moons may perhaps sometimes be just as good candidates) which can potentially support life per star that has planets
Estimated by Drake as 2.
2?? Where the hell does he get that??
fi = the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop intelligent life
Estimated by Drake as 0.01.
Today, solar systems in galactic orbits with radiation exposure as low as Earth's solar system are thought to be more than 100,000 times rarer, however, giving a value of fi = 1×10-7.
Almost, Drakey...
fc = the fraction of the above which are willing and able to communicate
Estimated by Drake as 0.01.
And he came to this conclusion... how?
How is it that this equation get so much credit?
The Real McCoy said:
Kandahar said:So even if the conditions for life are rare, are you (and he) claiming that there's not one other planet, out of trillions of stars in trillions of galaxies, that meets these conditions?
Simon W. Moon said:Another somewhat related question is whether or not any ETs have found a way to overcome the numerous obstacles to interstellar flight.
The Real McCoy said:No. Well, I can't speak for him but I'm not...
I'm trying to take a neutral stance here, pointing out the countless stars in the universe but also the countless factors contributing to the process we know as our own consciousness.
I'm not saying there is life (intelligent anyway) out there and I'm not saying there isn't. I said "unsure" because I feel our minds are naturally filled with assumptions and presuppositions about the possibility of life on other planets.
Simon W. Moon said:Another somewhat related question is whether or not any ETs have found a way to overcome the numerous obstacles to interstellar flight.
Conflict said:Trace the issue back to Darpa, groomlake, White Sands, Los Alamos, Sandia, Edwards AFB, and the collective refusal by such institiutions to openly discuss their operations...
The answer is obvious....
Some (objectionable sources) would say that not only do "they" exist.. but that sects of our nation are in cahoots with them. Sure... it sounds crazy... but..... who really knows? Somebody does.
The Real McCoy said:How is it that this equation get so much credit?
Scarecrow Akhbar said:Because it's just like the Bible. You can make it say anything you want it to.
Scarecrow Akhbar said:Fermi's Paradox is much more useful:
If there is intelligent life out there, why isn't it here?
The assumption behind this is that beyond any reasonable doubt, humanity has to be the youngest space faring species in the galaxy (weren't even that when Fermi made his observation).
Scarecrow Akhbar said:Any other space faring species has to be older and thus technologically advanced than we are. They have to have answers to space travel questions we haven't even considered yet.
So where are they?
Scarecrow Akhbar said:All that being said, there's only one certainty. Only one planet explored by man has ever had life, that we're sure of. And only one planet are we certain fits the conditions we think are essential to life. There's no point in extrapolating to any conclusions when only a single data point exists. There's an infinite number of lines passing through that point.
The universe is big.Scarecrow Akhbar said:Fermi's Paradox is much more useful:
If there is intelligent life out there, why isn't it here?
So where are they?
Exactly.M14 Shooter said:The universe is big.
This means they likely have a long way to go, and a lot of area to search - assuming they are searching.
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