• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Economic doom and gloom for Brexit falls flat.

Fishking

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 3, 2016
Messages
43,134
Reaction score
16,115
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Right
Looks like the globalists are continuing to take a blow to their agenda here. The IMF had predicted horrible consequences to the Brexit vote and it has turned out to be utterly false. Now they are predicting they are going to be the fastest growing economy in the G7.

I will not doubt that there could be some economic obstacles to get over but what is the value to be placed on regaining your sovereignty as your own nation? Good job Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...y-imf-international-monetary-fund-brexit-vote

The International Monetary Fund has predicted the UK will be the fastest growing of the G7 leading industrial countries this year and accepted that its prediction of a post-Brexit-vote financial crash has proved to be overly pessimistic.
Click to expand...
 
Brexit hasn't really happened yet. A lot remains to be seen.
 

I had just seen this on Bloomberg: London Property Defies the Brexit Scaremongers

That does not mean that the global economy is in good shape. It isn't. The parameters are not good.
But the pound is down and London real estate looks cheap.
 
Seems to me those predicting gloom and doom because of Brexit are not that different than those predicting better times. The point being we are making too many assumptions about Britain's trade conditions and capabilities once Brexit is actually completed. What we do not know is what other EU nations will do in trade nor do we know how international currency competition will play out. There are other wildcards as well. My position is too many unknowns on this one.
 
Brexit has not happened yet.. there is zero plan and has been zero negotiations.

The effect so far has been an 18% drop in the pound and now massive price rises for many goods in the UK.

Come back once May and her government trigger article 50 and actually have a freaking plan.
 
Personally, I think its a bit too early to make an official declaration of the effect of Brexit. Give it another six months, then we shall see.
 
backpacker said:
Brexit hasn't really happened yet. A lot remains to be seen.
Click to expand...

But predictions have not held out to be true, this was self-admitted by the IMF.
 

Correct, but that does not negate the doom and gloom prediction on the part of the IMF and they have acknowledged this themselves. So, thus far, they are defying the predictions but only time will tell.

In my OP I acknowledge that there could be economic obstacles but that weighing them against the sovereignty of your nation must be considered.
 

Yet the IMF has admitted their predictions to have been overly pessimistic. This is all we have to go off of so far, which is a good thing for the UK. Are you rooting for the economic harm of the UK?
 
It will not be known for at least two years how this works out, which might be way better and it might be way worse. If I were a Brit I would try to be optimistic though, Great Europe seems to be a failed idea that is on its last legs, abandoning ship first might turn out to be a master stroke.

NOTE: I said at least back four years that Greece should leave, them deciding to stay pretty clearly in my books turned out to be a mistake.
 
Abbazorkzog said:
Personally, I think its a bit too early to make an official declaration of the effect of Brexit. Give it another six months, then we shall see.
Click to expand...

We only have what we have, and that is better than what was predicted. This is a good thing.
 

I have not followed this as closely as I perhaps should, but very little has actually happened yet. Has it? IMF may not have much footing I agree, but perhaps no one does.
 
Fishking said:
But predictions have not held out to be true, this was self-admitted by the IMF.
Click to expand...

There hasn't been a hard break yet. I am not saying it will be doom and gloom or that it won't be Happy Days Are Here Again. I was just pointing out that other than the referendum, there really hasn't been any significant changes taking place as of yet. When it comes to the nuts and bolts, we will see better the true effects and upon whom.
 

But beating early predictions is better than fulfilling them, yes? I'm hopeful for them as I see what's happening in the E.U. as something very negative. Would you rather live in your parents house, under their rules, but have those financial advantages or would you rather have your own house but have to tighten your belt a little bit, for the time being, and work to improve your own lot following your own rules and plans?
 
Fishking said:
Yet the IMF has admitted their predictions to have been overly pessimistic. This is all we have to go off of so far, which is a good thing for the UK. Are you rooting for the economic harm of the UK?
Click to expand...

The IMF changes their predictions as most people change their underwear. The key word is "predictions".. a lot of factors are involved. The IMF probably made those predictions based on the fact Cameron would not resign, and that the UK would trigger article 50 faster than they are. Because of the delay in triggering article 50 and the many unknowns, the economy has not reacted as of yet to what ever positive or negative things that could happen.

For example, the pound has collapsed by 18%, but that change is only going to be felt in January and on wards.. half a year almost since the vote. Now what that will do to the economy .. one can only predict and speculate, but one thing is sure.. prices will go up. Will wages go up to compensate? Will consumer debt go up (hint it is already happening according to some reports). Once we know more about the British plan in negotiations... will that have an impact on jobs? There has been many reports on banks moving jobs to Europe already..

Basically, predictions are only as good as the basis and conditions that they are made under.
 

That makes sense. I am, however, hopeful for them.
 

That really doesn't matter unless you believed the early predictions were correct. Lowering expectations and then exceeding the new bar is a fairly old trick.
 
joG said:
I had just seen this on Bloomberg: London Property Defies the Brexit Scaremongers

That does not mean that the global economy is in good shape. It isn't. The parameters are not good.
But the pound is down and London real estate looks cheap.
Click to expand...

WTF are you talking about? London real estate is NOT cheap and hardly likely to be anytime soon.
 
gunner said:
WTF are you talking about? London real estate is NOT cheap and hardly likely to be anytime soon.
Click to expand...

'...London real estate looks cheap...'

I highlighted the important word for you.
 
William Rea said:
'...London real estate looks cheap...'

I highlighted the important word for you.
Click to expand...

And you think that's what he/she meant? That the properties look cheap....
 
Fishking said:
We only have what we have, and that is better than what was predicted. This is a good thing.
Click to expand...

So how far down the pan does our currency have to go and how much more expensive does everything have to get before you acknowledge its a bad thing ?

Two years ago before the Brexit storm broke the pound reached $1.71 its now worth $1.21 and unlike the crash in 2008 theres unlikely to be a recovery from this one because the self destruct button cannot be un pushed.

Scotland and Northern Ireland are desperate not to go down with the sinking ship too,especially after the recent meeting with the Prime minister where it was clear Westminster really didn't have a clue what they are doing
 
flogger said:
Two years ago before the Brexit storm broke the pound reached $1.71 its now worth $1.21 and unlike the crash in 2008 theres unlikely to be a recovery from this one because the self destruct button cannot be un pushed.
Click to expand...
But those cheap foreign goods were purchased with a trade deficit.

Which means that besides of the nominal price you paid, you also agreed to sell your assets (real estate, corporations, etc) or to borrow money.

In other words you implicitly gifted those foreign producers with a share of your future income, sometimes perpetually. This could not last forever.
 

No one said that the negative consequences would come from the Brexit vote, but from Brexit. Come back in 3-5 years and then we'll judge.
 
gunner said:
WTF are you talking about? London real estate is NOT cheap and hardly likely to be anytime soon.
Click to expand...

The pound is down by some 20 percent. That means that London real estate is that much cheaper, than it had been.
 
joG said:
The pound is down by some 20 percent. That means that London real estate is that much cheaper, than it had been.
Click to expand...

But still massively over priced. In addition, that makes no difference to those living here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…