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Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say

redbeer said:
Well, duh.....Israel doesn't want to stop, but thankfully Trump it trying hard to get a peace deal.......I know it's the last thing the left wants, but most of us actually do.
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Post #500


Ah, I see you seem to be on the way to accepting that trump is wrong in his notion that

the attacks were “a spectacular military success” and “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated"

Good for you.
 
Pyrite said:
Still LYING his ass off.
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I don't think he knows the difference.

He's been isolated in his little world for so long he likely is unaware of what is and what he imagines.

He's been isolated for more than a decade. His 'reality' is not our reality.
 
redbeer said:
Has anyone actually seen this so-called "report" or are we left believing or disbelieving anonymous sources? Do you think President Trump has less access to information than these leakers?
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From the White House Press Sec'y, it appears the White House has seen the assessment and are calling it "wrong".

The biggest problem is the Administration refuses to show proof of its claims, or release the report.

In fact the Administration was to give a report to Congress today, but instead indefinitely cancelled going before Congress.
 
Fearandloathing said:
If Trump is saying "spectacular military success."


...then its guaranteed a failure.

The man has never told the truth, even by accident
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Statistically, as much as he talks, he should have been accurate at least once by now.

But sadly no.
 
redbeer said:
Well, duh.....Israel doesn't want to stop, but thankfully Trump it trying hard to get a peace deal.......I know it's the last thing the left wants, but most of us actually do.
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You want Iran to stop getting it's ass kicked?

I guess that tracks. They're good buddies with Russia, and Goddamn, do MAGAs love Russia.
 
anatta said:
www.csis.org

What Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Operation Midnight Hammer struck Iran's key nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using B-2s and Tomahawk cruise missiles. This effort aimed to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, but its success is still to be determined.
www.csis.org www.csis.org
On June 22, officials from the Israeli military told the New York Times that the Fordow nuclear site was substantially damaged, but not destroyed. The officials also indicated that Iran may have moved uranium away from the site before the attack. Regardless of whether the Fordow facility is completely destroyed, it is highly unlikely that enrichment activities will resume at Fordow in the near future.
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What is "near future"? Is it the 3-6 months indicated by the Pentagon?

This outfit also states the 400 Kg's of enriched uranium was removed from Fordow, and is still extant. So it would seem to be in agreement with the Pentagon Assessment there, too.
 
Allan said:
This whole post looks like AI to me. The only question is whether it's Grok, Gemini or ChatGPT.
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But notice this source doesn't dispute the Pentagon Assessment:

- It states the 400Kg of enriched uranium was removed from Fordow and still is extant, as also claims the Pentagon Assessment.

- It, like the Pentagon Assessment, claims the Fordow facility was not destroyed as Trump & Leavitt claim.

- Finally it states the set-back was for the "near future", but no specific time period. The Pentagon very specifically says 3-6 months, which is not contradictory to "near future".
 
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Pyrite said:
That you cannot copy and paste the excerpt from the nytimes - and provide the link to the article - calls into question what you've posted.

If you don't have a subscription and thus cannot see the article, that's on you. I'd advise you to refrain from citing the nytimes under these conditions.

The Israelis, per the copy and paste excerpt I've posted from today's nytimes article, point this out:
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Pyrite said:
Initial Israeli damage assessments have also raised questions of the effectiveness of the strikes. Israeli defense officials said they have also collected evidence that the underground facilities at Fordo were not destroyed.
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Pyrite said:
Trump was wrong last night to claim Fordo was obliterated/destroyed/eliminated/whatever.
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The Pentagon Report also assesses the bolded.
 
Chomsky said:
What is "near future"? Is it the 3-6 months indicated by the Pentagon?

This outfit also states the 400 Kg's of enriched uranium was removed from Fordow, and is still extant. So it would seem to be in agreement with the Pentagon Assessment there, too.
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per article

" Weaponization is much more difficult than stockpiling fissile material."
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You have to look at the entire outcome and not fixate on what Trump said (obliterate or significantly degrade in the OP)
So im not going to argue the minutia. I'm just getting the terminology like :

The Isfahan nuclear complex conducts several key activities in Iran’s nuclear program. The nuclear campus includes a chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant to prepare uranium for enrichment, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, a centrifuge manufacturing facility, and a metal processing facility....satellite imagery reveals that the Tomahawk strikes at Isfahan dealt significant damage to several buildings at the nuclear complex.
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what it's saying is the above ground buildings that do the conversion (allowing the enrichment and construction of an actual bomb)
suffered "significant damage" . Which reads to me like whatever 60% enrichment they have achieved/squirreled away without further conversion cannot get to 90% and cannot be weaponized.

We tend to grasp on to details and not see the big picture. My 'assessment' is Iran is done for as far as ever getting a nuclear weapon.
And Israel has said going into the ceasefire it will take out anything that looks like it is nuclear related

Iran has lost 9 generals / 14 scientists/ like half their rocket launchers / their proxies war abilities / and their nuclear weapons program is DOA because it simply cannot rebuild under current circumstances
 
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redbeer said:
Why does the left feel the need to rush to judgement?......and from "anonymous sources" at that. This happens literally "all the time".......they are pulling your strings to get you to do their dirty work.......and ain't you proud.
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Why would you level that criticism at those in the thread, when you appear to be defending an Administration using terms like "Obliterated" and "Spectacular Military Success", mere hours after the attack?
 
redbeer said:
Well, duh.....Israel doesn't want to stop, but thankfully Trump it trying hard to get a peace deal.......I know it's the last thing the left wants, but most of us actually do.
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A "peace deal" is fine. But now it's got to involve the centrifuges and missing uranium that was supposed to have been taken care of. My biggest fear, is just like with his election lies, Trump will continue to lie about the centrifuges and missing uranium, leaving the danger in place - even after we've risked blood & treasure to eliminate it.
 
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anatta said:
per article


You have to look at the entire outcome and not fixate on what Trump said (obliterate or significantly degrade in the OP)
So im not going to argue the minutia. I'm just getting the terminology like :


what it's saying is the above ground buildings that do the conversion (allowing the enrichment and construction of an actual bomb)
suffered "significant damage" . Which reads to me like whatever 60% enrichment they have achieved/squirreled away without further conversion cannot get to 90% and cannot be weaponized.

We tend to grasp on to details and not see the big picture. My 'assessment' is Iran is done for as far as ever getting a nuclear weapon.
And Israel has said going into the ceasefire it will take out anything that looks like it is nuclear related

Iran has lost 9 generals / 14 scientists/ like half their rocket launchers / their proxies war abilities / and their nuclear weapons program is DOA because it simply cannot rebuild under current circumstances
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I see much technical analysis and supposition on your part, but how do you personally have the ability to determine these time frames? Above & beyond the Pentagon? Or, above & beyond other technical associations?
 
yankintx said:
Trumps initial bluster has blown back into his face.
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Perhaps. The MAGA Media never carried the story, so Trump's still good as far as I can tell.

That us non-MAGA are discussing this, means nothing. We're in no position to effect change or influence Trump.
 
Chomsky said:
I see much technical analysis and supposition on your part, but how do you personally have the ability to determine these time frames? Above & beyond the Pentagon? Or, above & beyond other technical associations?
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Everything I posted was from the link or common info. Like I said i have been putting in time as well on nuclear facilities and requirements.
I'm just getting the basics down
I labeled as 'assessment ' my opinion/time frame, as well as the fact Iran is such a FUBAR government now it simply can't reconstitute.
And Israel will whack anything they try it sees
 
anatta said:
Everything I posted was from the link or common info. Like I said i have been putting in time as well on nuclear facilities and requirements.
I'm just getting the basics down
I labeled as 'assessment ' my opinion/time frame, as well as the fact Iran is such a FUBAR government now it simply can't reconstitute.
And Israel will whack anything they try it sees
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I'm fine with this, as points of discussion.

But you or my opinion falls far short of an informed opinion.

I recently had a poster offer reams of technical data in support of why the Fordow facility is absolutely demolished for good, including the 400Kg of enriched uranium, and yet today - here we are!
 
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