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Do you agree with Cenk Uygur that the election is over?

BrotherFease

BrotherFease

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Cenk Uygur, a former Republican turned Socialist, predicts that Biden will win and it will not be close. He calls Biden "vanilla" and claims that Trump has committed way too many errors to recover.

Before Trump voters blast Uygur, just remember two things: (1) he correctly predicted that Trump would win the electoral college (2) He's a Bernie-Bro. He doesn't agree with Biden on a lot of issues.

 
No, it's not over until you get out and vote and all of the votes are tallied. Polls and such are fun to discuss, but they should never keep you from voting the COVID Con Man out of office.
 
Trump is well behind, but the election won't be over till all the votes are cast(and probably all the court cases are ruled on).
 
There is no telling what kind of crap Trump may pull in the next 30 days... no, it's not even close to over with this mother ****er.
 
I remember the Young Turk's record from 2016. He did not call for Trump to win in any way.
 
BrotherFease said:
Cenk Uygur, a former Republican turned Socialist, predicts that Biden will win and it will not be close. He calls Biden "vanilla" and claims that Trump has committed way too many errors to recover.

Before Trump voters blast Uygur, just remember two things: (1) he correctly predicted that Trump would win the electoral college (2) He's a Bernie-Bro. He doesn't agree with Biden on a lot of issues.
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I don't trust Cenk, and I don't trust donald and the rest of the Rethuglicans, who will pull all the stops to rig this election.

Biden will win if the vote is clean. If.
 
BrotherFease said:
There are a few problems with that statement above:

Back in 2016, Trump was leading in Arizona, Iowa and Georgia. That's not the case in 2020.

Also, look at the state of Texas. In 2016, Trump was leading by 6.7%. In 2020, he's leading by 3.2%.
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Regarding Arizona, that state is included in the polls of battleground states in my link. Yes, Biden is ahead in AZ vs how Hillary was but that just means he is more behind than her in other swing states.

I doubt Iowa, Georgia and Texas are going to be swing states and so even if Biden support is better there, it's not going to be enough IMO. While you are right about GA and TX, in Iowa Clinton was ahead of Trump by 0.8% on Oct 7 while Biden is behind Trump by 0.5%. But like I said, as much as I'd love for these states to matter, I don't think they will.
 
Cenk is a lunatic but I don't disagree with him here.
 
To respond to my own thread:

I think it's too early to call for Biden. I am not 100% convinced he's going to win. We called it prematurely for Trump after the Access Hollywood tape came out and Trump had a bad first debate with Clinton.

There's still about a quarter of Americans who haven't finalized their vote and will inevitably flip-flop between Biden and Trump. While there continues to be bad news coming out of the White House, there might be a scandal/controversy for Biden in late October.
 
Cenk's point about how Trump is sabotaging the GOP vote by demonizing mail-in ballots (with which the GOP had an advantage) is quite funny.

Btw, I don't think Cenk is a socialist. In fact I recall him saying the opposite. He agrees with most of Bernie's policies, though.
 
Slavister said:
Regarding Arizona, that state is included in the polls of battleground states in my link. Yes, Biden is ahead in AZ vs how Hillary was but that just means he is more behind than her in other swing states.

I doubt Iowa, Georgia and Texas are going to be swing states and so even if Biden support is better there, it's not going to be enough IMO. While you are right about GA and TX, in Iowa Clinton was ahead of Trump by 0.8% on Oct 7 while Biden is behind Trump by 0.5%. But like I said, as much as I'd love for these states to matter, I don't think they will.
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Iowa, Georgia and Texas ARE swing states/toss-up states. They go easily go either way. Notice that Iowa, Georgia and Texas are listed on their site as "toss-ups".

I am not sure where you're getting your .8% Iowa number from. RCP had Trump ahead in 2016 by 3.7%.

You have to look at the individual swing state, not bundle them together.

The polls are looking bad for Trump. He's losing in all the swing states except for Texas.

I am not seeing any real movement for Trump here. There's a possibility as we see more and more voters making up their mind, but right now, it's not looking good. Arguing that "Trump is ahead" is a bad statement.
 
Airyaman said:
No, it's not over until you get out and vote and all of the votes are tallied. Polls and such are fun to discuss, but they should never keep you from voting the COVID Con Man out of office.
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Exactly. It isn't over until it's over, and everyone needs to go out and vote for Biden.
 
BrotherFease said:
I am not sure where you're getting your .8%
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Go to the link under that statement (here it is again) and rollback to October 7 date: Clinton 45.9%, Trump 45.1% on Oct 7'16 in Iowa.

BrotherFease said:
Arguing that "Trump is ahead" is a bad statement.
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I am not arguing that. I am arguing that Clinton was ahead of Trump in swing states on October 7 by the same amount as Biden is today. RCP shows this in combination of the 6 swing states. 538 did this via their projection of EC win. Both sites effectively state this.
 
Jay59 said:
I remember the Young Turk's record from 2016. He did not call for Trump to win in any way.
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Yes he did and he was saying it on the night of the election, do some research.
 
BrotherFease said:
Cenk Uygur, a former Republican turned Socialist, predicts that Biden will win and it will not be close. He calls Biden "vanilla" and claims that Trump has committed way too many errors to recover.

Before Trump voters blast Uygur, just remember two things: (1) he correctly predicted that Trump would win the electoral college (2) He's a Bernie-Bro. He doesn't agree with Biden on a lot of issues.
Click to expand...

Cenk is the smartest guy in the world, just ask him! A guy with his credentials can't possibly be wrong.
 
Phys251 said:
I don't trust Cenk, and I don't trust donald and the rest of the Rethuglicans, who will pull all the stops to rig this election. Biden will win if the vote is clean. If.
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Both sides are going hard at the accusations. Both sides have reason to be leery of ballot stuffing. The only real issue will be with mail ballots, where fraud is orders of magnitude easier. Vote in person and vote only once.

BrotherFease said:
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That was not a prediction. He cadged it with a bunch of qualifications.

Dans La Lune said:
Cenk's point about how Trump is sabotaging the GOP vote by demonizing mail-in ballots (with which the GOP had an advantage) is quite funny. Btw, I don't think Cenk is a socialist. In fact I recall him saying the opposite. He agrees with most of Bernie's policies, though.
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Mail ballots are much easier to to do wrong unintentionally, and vastly easier to cheat. Saying the Republicans have an advantage is a poor attempt at humor.

I think Cenk is an iconoclast more than anything. He likes kicking ant mounds.
 
Slavister said:
Go to the link under that statement (here it is again) and rollback to October 7 date: Clinton 45.9%, Trump 45.1% on Oct 7'16 in Iowa.

I am not arguing that. I am arguing that Clinton was ahead of Trump in swing states on October 7 by the same amount as Biden is today. RCP shows this in combination of the 6 swing states. 538 did this via their projection of EC win. Both sites effectively state this.
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Okay, I see what you're saying, but I was only looking at RCP's average for Iowa.

Here's the problem with the "its all even viewpoint". At this same time in 2016, Clinton was leading in 8 of the 12 battleground states listed. In 2020, Biden is leading in 11 out of the 12. Would you really consider that EVEN?

Also, consider the climate. We have an economy in shambles. We have a pandemic going on. We have a president seen as incompetent in dealing with racism and covid19. I don't think the political climate merits an "even steven" analysis. There are no scandals involving Biden. He has a net approval rating.
 
BrotherFease said:
Cenk Uygur, a former Republican turned Socialist, predicts that Biden will win and it will not be close. He calls Biden "vanilla" and claims that Trump has committed way too many errors to recover.

Before Trump voters blast Uygur, just remember two things: (1) he correctly predicted that Trump would win the electoral college (2) He's a Bernie-Bro. He doesn't agree with Biden on a lot of issues.

Click to expand...

As they say, "It's not over until the fat lady sings". Trump was energetically counted out during the 2016 election, time and time again. They were wrong then and the left lapsed into a frenzy to change the election's outcome. Their zeal in using corruption, (Collusion, spying, Mueller, impeachment) is a warning to all Americans, "you can be next".
"People look to the government to fix their problems, the problem is Government is the problem." Ronald Reagan.
 
BrotherFease said:
Here's the problem with the "its all even viewpoint". At this same time in 2016, Clinton was leading in 8 of the 12 battleground states listed. In 2020, Biden is leading in 11 out of the 12. Would you really consider that EVEN?
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No, I would not consider that even. Which exactly are the 12 states you are referring to? I already showed Clinton was leading in Iowa while Biden is behind there as of Oct 7 - is that one of the 12?

BrotherFease said:
Also, consider the climate. We have an economy in shambles. We have a pandemic going on. We have a president seen as incompetent in dealing with racism and covid19. I don't think the political climate merits an "even steven" analysis. There are no scandals involving Biden. He has a net approval rating.
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Ok, but also consider that none of the polls account for the extra 2020 real dangers - voter suppression; messing with mailed-in votes + court fights; and hacking voter counts. I described #1 and #3 at the end of my OP here.

The one positive that was pointed out by Cardinal on that thread is expected / hoped for much higher voter turn out in 2020.
 
Slavister said:
No, I would not. What exactly are the 12 states you are referring to? I already showed Clinton was leading in Iowa while Biden is behind there - is that one of the 12?
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Click here, and then scroll down to bottom.

RCP has 12 states of comparison: Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Penn, Michigan and New Hampshire.

Four years ago, Clinton was leading in 8 out of those 12.
Today, Biden is leading in 11 out of the 12 states.

If Clinton and Biden were in the SAME position, Biden would be leading in 8 out of 12. But he's not, Biden is leading in everything except for Texas.

I am not using 538 here. I am purely looking at the top battleground states in 2016 and 2020 per RCP data.

All what I am saying here is that Biden is in a better position than Clinton. That's it.
 
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