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DEMs Can’t Hold The Senate

Trippy Trekker

Trippy Trekker

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God knows I wish the DEMs could hold the Senate! Not in the cards:

Out of the 11 Seats currently held by the GOP up for election this cycle, the DEMs have an outside chance of snagging TX from Ted Cruz. I predict Cruz holds the seat. I don’t see any other GOP seat as vulnerable.

Out of the 23 Seats currently held by the DEMs (including Independents that caucus with DEMs) up for election, for sure the GOP wins WV; very likely the GOP also wins Montana. I think (PRAY) the DEMs hold onto Ohio, WI, MI and PA.

Based on my predictions, post-election: GOP 51 - 49 DEMs

What do you predict?
 
I think by far the most likely scenario is GOP 51-49 DEMs as you predicted.

I see the realistic range (IE somewhere around 95% confidence) as being GOP 55 Dem 45 to Dem 53 GOP 47. I see the seats most likely to deviate from the GOP 51-49 DEMs result in order as OH, WI, MI, PA, TX, MT, AZ, NV, NE, FL, with no other senate seat realistically flipping. That includes Maryland, where I do not see a realistic path for Larry Hogan in a presidential year.
 
51-49 Republican majority is best-case scenario for Democrats. There are wish casting scenarios like Cruz losing or Tester holding on but those are not really in the fat part of the Gaussian Curve.
 
I tend to agree, it is looking more and more like 51-49 if not 52-48 in favor of Republicans. And I do not see Cruz losing that seat.
 
Highly likely they lose the Senate . However TX and Nebraska coould surprise. Highly unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility.

www.cbsnews.com

Nebraska Senate race surprise: It's "more competitive than it should be"

Independent Dan Osborn is running a surprisingly competitive Senate race in deep-red Nebraska in his bid to unseat two-term Sen. Deb Fischer.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
 
A Harris victory and a GOP Senate is about the best outcome I can realistically see from this election cycle.
 
Trippy Trekker said:
God knows I wish the DEMs could hold the Senate! Not in the cards:

Out of the 11 Seats currently held by the GOP up for election this cycle, the DEMs have an outside chance of snagging TX from Ted Cruz. I predict Cruz holds the seat. I don’t see any other GOP seat as vulnerable.

Out of the 23 Seats currently held by the DEMs (including Independents that caucus with DEMs) up for election, for sure the GOP wins WV; very likely the GOP also wins Montana. I think (PRAY) the DEMs hold onto Ohio, WI, MI and PA.

Based on my predictions, post-election: GOP 51 - 49 DEMs

What do you predict?
Click to expand...
We always knew the senate would go to the filthy deplorables.
The house should go to the good guys.

John Baron, the orange animal will win the top spot. Sad shit. The country really has become a shothole but from within, not from immigration.
 
Trippy Trekker said:
I think (PRAY) the DEMs hold onto Ohio, WI, MI and PA.
Click to expand...

Ohio will be a nail-biter. As of the 8th, Cook Political, Inside Elections, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill & Sabato all have that at Toss up and it's been that way for 2 or so weeks. But it's possible Brown will get kicked to the curb. We'll see what tomorrow holds for the rankings (if they come out...they usually do on Tuesdays).

Penn, Wisconsin & Michigan could go either way at this point. Same goes for Nevada.

Arizona is certainly going Blue. Lake is too dumb & toxic. If she does lose, as i've said here before, we'll most likely have to endure cries of "Election Fraud!" from her till the cows come home.

All in all, control of the Senate is still anyone's game.
 
NatMorton said:
A Harris victory and a GOP Senate is about the best outcome I can realistically see from this election cycle.
Click to expand...
A Harris victory and a Dem House and Senate would be better and I am hoping @Trippy Trekker is wrong.

Surprisingly, we have noticed ads for Blackburn as of late. I doubt she's in trouble but her opponent surely knows how to speak up for herself.
Gloria Johnson
 
Yeah, the Senate was always likely to go GOP this cycle. The Republicans are much more vulnerable in 2026 in the Senate.

So they key here is to keep the split as close as possible and hope to pick up the Senate in 2026.
 
Letting radicalized Republicans control any other branch of government when the Republican SCOTUS is legislating from the bench would be incredibly stupid. Get the **** out there and vote.
 
Helix said:
Letting radicalized Republicans control any other branch of government when the Republican SCOTUS is legislating from the bench would be incredibly stupid. Get the **** out there and vote.
Click to expand...
Tennesseans ( fill in any deep red state ) go out and vote alright. Do they vote in their best interest?
 
Lovebug said:
Tennesseans ( fill in any deep red state ) go out and vote alright. Do they vote in their best interest?
Click to expand...
I'm in a similar boat. I went to an off year, and there was no way to vote against Republicans. FFS. Oh, well. This time there will be.
 
Lovebug said:
I am still hoping for girl power. See ya when all the votes are counted.


LADIES...THINK
Click to expand...
Yep, I'm hoping for girl power, too.
 
Roadvirus said:
Ohio will be a nail-biter. As of the 8th, Cook Political, Inside Elections, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill & Sabato all have that at Toss up and it's been that way for 2 or so weeks. But it's possible Brown will get kicked to the curb. We'll see what tomorrow holds for the rankings (if they come out...they usually do on Tuesdays).

Penn, Wisconsin & Michigan could go either way at this point. Same goes for Nevada.

Arizona is certainly going Blue. Lake is too dumb & toxic. If she does lose, as i've said here before, we'll most likely have to endure cries of "Election Fraud!" from her till the cows come home.

All in all, control of the Senate is still anyone's game.
Click to expand...
It shouldn't be, of course, Sherrod Brown has worked with both political parties in serving his constituents' interests.

Not only that, the GOP nominee for the Senate seat is a real sleaze- and scumbag: Newcomer Bernie Moreno, who not only cheated employees out of overtime but also violated a judge's order to preserve documents. (Moreno shredded them.)

The race shouldn't be close. But it is.
 
Bok Tuklo said:
51-49 Republican majority is best-case scenario for Democrats. There are wish casting scenarios like Cruz losing or Tester holding on but those are not really in the fat part of the Gaussian Curve.
Click to expand...
Can't argue but no one has offered another potential longshot, Scott in FL.
 
Trippy Trekker said:
God knows I wish the DEMs could hold the Senate! Not in the cards:

Out of the 11 Seats currently held by the GOP up for election this cycle, the DEMs have an outside chance of snagging TX from Ted Cruz. I predict Cruz holds the seat. I don’t see any other GOP seat as vulnerable.

Out of the 23 Seats currently held by the DEMs (including Independents that caucus with DEMs) up for election, for sure the GOP wins WV; very likely the GOP also wins Montana. I think (PRAY) the DEMs hold onto Ohio, WI, MI and PA.

Based on my predictions, post-election: GOP 51 - 49 DEMs

What do you predict?
Click to expand...
I agree

The Senate will go GOP

The House Dem

Another split, with little to be accomplished
 
mrjurrs said:
Can't argue but no one has offered another potential longshot, Scott in FL.
Click to expand...
Let us WISH together! That written, no matter the odds, do not BET against Rick “The Dick” Scott holding his seat!

Tough row to hoe to upset “The Dick”.

I first registered to vote, age 18, in 1974, in Pinellas County FL. I currently vote in Pinellas County FL. I already voted by mail this election cycle. In the General Election U.S. Senate race, I voted for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell; against the incumbent, “The Dick”.

In 2022, Orlando-based former U.S. Rep. Val Demings(D) ran against incumbent, “Robo-Rubio(R)”. Rubio won a 3rd term by a landslide.

IMG_1754.webpIMG_1753.webpIMG_1752.webp
 
Pyrite said:
It shouldn't be, of course, Sherrod Brown has worked with both political parties in serving his constituents' interests.

Not only that, the GOP nominee for the Senate seat is a real sleaze- and scumbag: Newcomer Bernie Moreno, who not only cheated employees out of overtime but also violated a judge's order to preserve documents. (Moreno shredded them.)

The race shouldn't be close. But it is.
Click to expand...
Ohio will go big for Trump again, and will likely re-elect Brown. Brown casts himself as a centrisat during his campaigns but then runs off to DC to vote for every item on the left wing agenda. But he knows his state. Thats why you can see a Sherrod Brown add that doesnt have him surrounded by guys in hard hats. As for Moreno, those overtime accusations are pretty disturbing. Not sure why that didnt come out in the primary. Maybe he has, but I havent heard him respond to those charges either.
 
NatMorton said:
A Harris victory and a GOP Senate is about the best outcome I can realistically see from this election cycle.
Click to expand...
At this point, Harris winning isn't in the cards.

The Americans will be the majority in all branches for the first time since the 1800's. I just hope that Trump and the GOP leadership in the Senate don't squander this extremely rare convergence.
 
2024 was always destined to be a bad year for Dems in the Senate. Like 2x more D members up for reelection than Rs, and their party is in chaos what with Biden dropping out and Heiress getting anointed.
 
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