Dems 2024 Presidential Problem

[Callen]

This is how the betting market sees the likely primary field. It's still a couple years away, but this is why I think the others would be knocked out quickly, even if Trump and DeSantis split votes and states.

View attachment 67397379

I would suggest the hearings are definitely having an impact. What were the odds last month?

 

[gbg3]

Then, getting back to the OP, there is getting to be quite a gap developing here too. Biden is still only 10 points from the top but I think few Dems see him as a good option anymore. Once he's out of his picture, the gap grows quite large between DeSantis and Harris or Buttigieg. Thus the quickly developing "Dems 2024 Presidential Problem".

 

[Gateman_Wen]

After watching clips of Democrats and members of the liberal media starting to acknowledge Joe Biden's cognitive disorder, it seems clear he will not be able to make it another 2.5 years. I suspect that after the mid term beating Democrats will take, Joe will be a team player and announce he has been diagnosed with something and step down.
This is going to put Democrats in a serious predicament. Unless a miracle happens President Harris's numbers are going to be dismal. What then? If Democratic leaders are 100% sure she would have no chance to win, will they mutiny against her or will that be too ugly considering she is the first Black female President?

lol

 

[Gateman_Wen]

What are you talking about?

He's just repeating some RWNJ fantasies he saw on a blog.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

here are plenty of reasons to criticize Trump but anti American isn't one of them.

Is that supposed to be a joke? Irony, perhaps?

 

[gbg3]

I would suggest the hearings are definitely having an impact. What were the odds last month?

Trump is precisely where he was one month ago. This chart doesn't yet show his move to 38 today, but that's exactly where he was a month ago. Over the last month, Trump has been at either 37 or 38 every single day except for Tuesday, when he dropped to 36. Right now, he's back at 38. It appears that while the hearings may be helping DeSantis, they haven't done much of anything to Trump.

 

[gbg3]

I would suggest the hearings are definitely having an impact. What were the odds last month?

Then I decided to look one other place to answer your question. This is the RCP current 30 day chart for Trump favorability. His average favorability appears to be stable and his unfavorability has increased about 1/2 of a point from where it has been. So, again, not much happening for Trump ratings. All activity of note is with DeSantis.

 

[Callen]

@gbg3 DeSantis is moving ahead of Trump in terms of 2024 that is a shift of late. Trump may remain popular in general terms but there is a definite shift in the last few weeks in terms of 2024. Although they won't say it outloud I think many Trumpers just want him to go away and leave 2024 to DeSantis....which is not to say they don't have a favorable opinion of Trump. Two different things

Although they poo poo the hearings I think many Republicans are hearing the sworn testimony of long time conservatives and members of Trumps circle and saying....time to switch horses.

You have listened to none of it so you are totally unaware of the sworn testimony and are in no position to intelligently comment on it. .....but what they have testified to is damning.

 

[Jay59]

Is that supposed to be a joke? Irony, perhaps?

That is supposed to be the literal truth.

There are haters that claim Trump is unAmerican like there are haters that claim Trump tried to overturn the election. More rational people know that neither is true.

Then, getting back to the OP, there is getting to be quite a gap developing here too. Biden is still only 10 points from the top but I think few Dems see him as a good option anymore. Once he's out of his picture, the gap grows quite large between DeSantis and Harris or Buttigieg. Thus the quickly developing "Dems 2024 Presidential Problem".
View attachment 67397380

That's the sort of mess you should expect more than a year before candidates announce.

I expect Trump to not run. I expect Biden to not run.

@gbg3 DeSantis is moving ahead of Trump in terms of 2024 that is a shift of late. Trump may remain popular in general terms but there is a definite shift in the last few weeks in terms of 2024. Although they won't say it outloud I think many Trumpers just want him to go away and leave 2024 to DeSantis....which is not to say they don't have a favorable opinion of Trump. Two different things

Although they poo poo the hearings I think many Republicans are hearing the sworn testimony of long time conservatives and members of Trumps circle and saying....time to switch horses.

You have listened to none of it so you are totally unaware of the sworn testimony and are in no position to intelligently comment on it. .....but what they have testified to is damning.

DeSantis is clearly the leader at this point but it's too early to even know the players.

 

[Callen]

DeSantis is clearly the leader at this point but it's too early to even know the players

I think DeSantis will be the nominee (damn it!) hands down. Although they don't have the courage to come out and admit it many, many Trumpers see what he did, the baggage he carries, and want to move on to their younger Trump.

 

[Callen]

Just came across this.......DeSantis is gaining momentum against Trump. Republicans are wakening up to the fact Trump is a loser in more ways than one. I'm going to bet Trump is starting to realize DeSantis is the favoured. I think he declares very soon to force the loyalty issue. Smarter would be to pretend to be the kingmaker and endorse DeSantis but Trump's ego would never let him do that.

DeSantis beats Trump in conservative group straw poll for 2024 nomination

Denver poll could mean Trump is losing grip on Republican party as DeSantis wins 71% of the vote to Trump’s 67%

www.theguardian.com

 

[gbg3]

I think DeSantis will be the nominee (damn it!) hands down. Although they don't have the courage to come out and admit it many, many Trumpers see what he did, the baggage he carries, and want to move on to their younger Trump.

So much drama. Most primaries for the party which doesn't have an incumbent, have lots of people running. Your comments indicate you think the "character" and "courage" of GOP voters are of some importance to who will choose to run. That's silly. The people/voters look over the candidates available and vote for their favorites in the primary. Once that's done and the nominee is established, they typically jump on board with that nominee whether or not that person was their favorite when they voted in their state's primary. Your obsession about one or the other, character and courage of voters, is - well, drama, silly and filled with TDS.
If both Trump and DeSantis choose to run, they will. GOP voters are just fine with that possibility. We'll choose who we want to support in the primaries and we'll find out who becomes the nominee.

 

[Linuxcooldude]

Yeah they did end up putting the anti American piece of garbage in. I was wrong. Now I know what morons right wingers are.

Yeah, I remember the good Ole days when we were prosperous, had money in our pockets and everything wasn't in short supply. But Democrats came into power and changed all that and turned to crap. Thanks a lot Democrats.

 

[Jay59]

I think DeSantis will be the nominee (damn it!) hands down. Although they don't have the courage to come out and admit it many, many Trumpers see what he did, the baggage he carries, and want to move on to their younger Trump.

Tell me again in 18 months. By December 2023 we will at least know the competition.

Bear in mind that in 2014 no one who didn't happen to live in Texas even knew Ted Cruz's name.

 

[Callen]

So much drama. Most primaries for the party which doesn't have an incumbent, have lots of people running. Your comments indicate you think the "character" and "courage" of GOP voters are of some importance to who will choose to run. That's silly. The people/voters look over the candidates available and vote for their favorites in the primary. Once that's done and the nominee is established, they typically jump on board with that nominee whether or not that person was their favorite when they voted in their state's primary. Your obsession about one or the other, character and courage of voters, is - well, drama, silly and filled with TDS.
If both Trump and DeSantis choose to run, they will. GOP voters are just fine with that possibility. We'll choose who we want to support in the primaries and we'll find out who becomes the nominee.

I never said anything about the character of voters being of any importance to those who chose to run and of course, if I ever suggested a thing it would be silly. Just as your twisting my words to say something I didn't say is silly.

I said that many Trumpers (which is a specific subset of GOP voters) would like to see Trump just go away so they could move on to the young Trump but don't have the courage to say so. Many moderates in the GOP have made it very clear they just want him to go away and aren't afraid to say it but none of that has much to do with who actually runs and I never said it did.

 

[pocket aces]

Yeah, I remember the good Ole days when we were prosperous, had money in our pockets and everything wasn't in short supply. But Democrats came into power and changed all that and turned to crap. Thanks a lot Democrats.

Thanks to Trumps mishandling of the pandemic response, but as usual anti American right wingers value money over our founders vision of government.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

That is supposed to be the literal truth.

On what planet?

 

[Jay59]

On what planet?

Obviously not the bizarro planet where you reside.

On Earth, with all the facts, it makes sense. I am not going to agree but it's easy to see how a rational person might believe it.

 

[RedFishBlueFish]

After watching clips of Democrats and members of the liberal media starting to acknowledge Joe Biden's cognitive disorder, it seems clear he will not be able to make it another 2.5 years. I suspect that after the mid term beating Democrats will take, Joe will be a team player and announce he has been diagnosed with something and step down.
This is going to put Democrats in a serious predicament. Unless a miracle happens President Harris's numbers are going to be dismal. What then? If Democratic leaders are 100% sure she would have no chance to win, will they mutiny against her or will that be too ugly considering she is the first Black female President?

My guess is that Biden will not run again. My hope is that he does not endorse Harris, but lets the Democrats determine the best candidate.

I don't think the black vote will be lost to the Democrats just because Harris is not the candidate. Black political leaders aren't that near-sighted. To a person the black voters understand how racist the Republican MAGA base is.

I believe the Republican Party is blind to the harm they have done to the country over the last 6 years, and that they will find that the American public has had enough of their approach to governing. Maybe not in '22 but for the presidential election in '24. The public is smart enough to know that DeSantis is just another Trump.

Here are some reasons pubic support will swing away from the Republican Party in 2024.

* Republican attacks on voting rights across the country

* SCOTUS (likely) decision on abortion. Anti-abortion legislation in numerous red states.

* Republican party full of election deniers. Insurrection supporters.

* Whole new crop of MAGA nuts, like MTG, Bobbert, and Gaetz will enter the House in 2022. Ever increasing number of anti-democratic, anti-government, anti-civil rights Republicans in Congress harms the Republican Party.

* Trump-stink cannot be washed off Republican Party in 4 years.

* Association of White Supremacy Groups with Republican Party.

* Republican attacks on School Boards. Book bannings. CRT protests.

* Republican’s love of assault weapons. Cowardice in standing up to NRA.

* Republican culture wars. Hate and fear mongering. Riles up Republican MAGA-base but creates division and viewed negatively by reasonable Americans.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

Obviously not the bizarro planet where you reside.

On Earth, with all the facts, it makes sense. I am not going to agree but it's easy to see how a rational person might believe it.

On earth, with all the facts, tRump is an anti-American bastard. Also a lying weasel who cheats on his wife. Not to mention a money grubbing carnival barker who is still taking his cultists to the cleaners.

 

[The Mark]

After watching clips of Democrats and members of the liberal media starting to acknowledge Joe Biden's cognitive disorder, it seems clear he will not be able to make it another 2.5 years. I suspect that after the mid term beating Democrats will take, Joe will be a team player and announce he has been diagnosed with something and step down.
This is going to put Democrats in a serious predicament. Unless a miracle happens President Harris's numbers are going to be dismal. What then? If Democratic leaders are 100% sure she would have no chance to win, will they mutiny against her or will that be too ugly considering she is the first Black female President?

They ****in' picked Biden.
I didn't vote for him in the primary, but clearly I'm not in the majority of the Democratic party.

I've kinda washed my metaphorical hands of that, if they can't pick someone to replace him someone else will win the primary and he'll be a 1-term president.
Which I'm perfectly fine with.

 

[Jay59]

On earth, with all the facts, tRump is an anti-American bastard. Also a lying weasel who cheats on his wife. Not to mention a money grubbing carnival barker who is still taking his cultists to the cleaners.

This is cult dogma, supported only by alt-facts and prejudice.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

This is cult dogma, supported only by alt-facts and prejudice.

Awe! He's trying to shuck the "cult" thing off on the Democrats!

Ain't that cute?

 

[Jay59]

Awe! He's trying to shuck the "cult" thing off on the Democrats!

The cult has supported Democrats for generations but it's a media creation.

Ain't that cute?

I would prefer it if you had independent thoughts.

I can lead you to facts but I cannot make you think.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

The cult has supported Democrats for generations but it's a media creation.


I would prefer it if you had independent thoughts.

I can lead you to facts but I cannot make you think.

LOL