Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

[Cameron]

"In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican."

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

Americans' party identification has shifted from a Republican advantage in 2024 to a Democratic advantage in the second quarter of 2025.

news.gallup.com

Huh, but our local MAGA tell us that the Democrats are in complete disarray, that their reputation is "garbage," and that they will never again win an election unless they stop being "condescending" toward the the bigotry, racism, and corruption among the far right.

Well, turns out the poor approval rating of Dems stems from the fact that Dems themselves think their party is not doing enough to stand up to the kleptocrats, bullies, and liars on the other side of the aisle. The share of Dems eager to vote in 2026 is 22 percentage points higher than among the GOP. This is on top of them outperforming 2024 by an average of 15 points in elections this year.

The narrative from the deplorability defenders is, as usual, self-serving. What Dems need is a leader who can direct their anger and angst in a unified direction.

 

[Callen]

The "Dems are doomed" narrative will only serve to make the GOP voters more complacent as they smugly think they are doing just fine even though they aren't. Republicans are running high unfavourable numbers too but their voter enthusiasm numbers are much lower that the Dems. Independents are abandoning the Republicans and the Dems hold the advantage in the Generic Congressional Vote polls. The Dems are also leading in the VA and NJ Gubernatorial races.

 

[NatMorton]

The "Dems are doomed" narrative will only serve to make the GOP voters more complacent as they smugly think they are doing just fine even though they aren't.

Flip it around and it's a rather accurate description of Democrats circa 2021, yes?

 

[The Brad Dad]

Flip it around and it's a rather accurate description of Democrats circa 2021, yes?

No?

 

[Perotista]

"In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican."

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

Americans' party identification has shifted from a Republican advantage in 2024 to a Democratic advantage in the second quarter of 2025.

news.gallup.com

View attachment 67583025

Huh, but our local MAGA tell us that the Democrats are in complete disarray, that their reputation is "garbage," and that they will never again win an election unless they stop being "condescending" toward the the bigotry, racism, and corruption among the far right.

Well, turns out the poor approval rating of Dems stems from the fact that Dems themselves think their party is not doing enough to stand up to the kleptocrats, bullies, and liars on the other side of the aisle. The share of Dems eager to vote in 2026 is 22 percentage points higher than among the GOP. This is on top of them outperforming 2024 by an average of 15 points in elections this year.

The narrative from the deplorability defenders is, as usual, self-serving. What Dems need is a leader who can direct their anger and angst in a unified direction.

The democrats have had a party affiliation advantage from FDR until recently. Sometimes by as much as 25 points and a couple of years where over half of all Americans identified themselves as democrats.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/feature/party-id-trend/

It hasn’t been until 2021 that the republicans caught up with the democrats, basically a tie in 2021, 22, 23, 24.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

There are two things here that need to be pointed out, the democrats party affiliation has the lead when including independents who lean toward that party 46-43. Independents are wishy washy. But when counting only the base of each party, the republicans lead 28-27. Then there’s party favorability/unfavourability. According to Gallup, the GOP is seen favorably by 38% of all Americans with 34% viewing the democratic party favorably. The most recent YouGov poll, 28 July shows democrats at 33% favorable/59% unfavorable vs. republicans at 38% favorable/55% unfavorable as seen by all Americans. Questions 19A and 19B

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_7Bn59Tx.pdf

Bottom line, neither major party is liked much. Most Americans view both major parties more as the problem toward good government. The problem as I see it is that both major parties govern only for their base. Their base being around 30% of all America and don’t govern for the all Americans. This has led to a series of one term presidents, Trump 2016, Biden 2020, Trump again in 2024. It has also led to a change in control of the house, from republican control in 2018 to democratic control and from democratic control in 2022 to republican control. I would wager this trend continues to democratic control of the house in 2026 and a democratic president in 2028 back to republican control of the house in 2030 and a GOP president in 2032. As long as most Americans view both major parties as the problem along with both major parties governing only for their base, I see no break in this current trend.

 

[OrphanSlug]

These polls are being misinterpreted.

"Regaining advantage in party affiliation" is rather dubious when considering the trend is favorability for Democrats is headed into the toilet. While both numbers are not great, Republicans still hold +4 in favorability. And in the same period of time as this finding a silver lining in the poll results, non-lean Independents also went up +2. Gaining +4 in "Democratic-leaning independents" while losing -1 in "Democratic identifier" is not a great results.

The interpretation of the polling results and headline for the article is intentionally misleading.

The "bottom line" is most important, assuming anyone read it...

"Consistent with the common pattern of the out-party making gains at the start of a new presidency, Democratic Party affiliation has increased since Trump was elected, and now Democrats hold an edge. But the political implications of that, including a potential midterm windfall, are tempered by the simultaneous finding that the party has never been more unpopular than it is now. Aside from its record-low favorable score, the Democratic Party is rated no better than the GOP for being able to manage the government effectively or for bringing about needed changes."

If you download the questions and results (no direct link, is a PDF at the bottom of the page) you will see that favorability for Democrats is, yet again, at record lows going all the way back to 1992. There is no win here, as we've seen in multiple polls now there is no love and no interest in the Democratic Party. Even their own base is not too happy.

I am starting to lump Gallup into the category of other polling groups in the distrust category.

 

[Mycroft]

If it wasn't for the media and their lies and attacks, this would be a lot different.

 

[bongsaway]

If it wasn't for the media and their lies and attacks, this would be a lot different.

True but you're never going to stop the propaganda from Fox and friends and all the other right wing news outlets.

 

[Binary_Digit]

When the douche party gets too douchey for our liking, we vote for the turd party. Then when the turd party gets too turdey, we go back to the douche party again. It's the American way.

 

[ataraxia]

If it wasn't for the media and their lies and attacks, this would be a lot different.

Yes. They need to stop all the lies and attacks, and just have everyone chasing after cat eating Haitians, secret Kenyan birth certificates, and genocidal S Africans.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

When the douche party gets too douchey for our liking, we vote for the turd party. Then when the turd party gets too turdey, we go back to the douche party again. It's the American way.

View attachment 67583038

That's not only binary, it's almost quantum in its blithe ignorance of what's being done to our republic right now.
Bothsiderism is a cop out and always has been.
Congrats are in order, I guess.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Yes. They need to stop all the lies and attacks, and just have everyone chasing after cat eating Haitians, secret Kenyan birth certificates, and genocidal S Africans.

And just like that the cat eating Haitians have all but disappeared.

 

[bongsaway]

When the douche party gets too douchey for our liking, we vote for the turd party. Then when the turd party gets too turdey, we go back to the douche party again. It's the American way.

View attachment 67583038

We have tried everything except democratic socialism.

 

[MAGAnificent]

"In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican."

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

Americans' party identification has shifted from a Republican advantage in 2024 to a Democratic advantage in the second quarter of 2025.

news.gallup.com

View attachment 67583025

Huh, but our local MAGA tell us that the Democrats are in complete disarray, that their reputation is "garbage," and that they will never again win an election unless they stop being "condescending" toward the the bigotry, racism, and corruption among the far right.

Well, turns out the poor approval rating of Dems stems from the fact that Dems themselves think their party is not doing enough to stand up to the kleptocrats, bullies, and liars on the other side of the aisle. The share of Dems eager to vote in 2026 is 22 percentage points higher than among the GOP. This is on top of them outperforming 2024 by an average of 15 points in elections this year.

The narrative from the deplorability defenders is, as usual, self-serving. What Dems need is a leader who can direct their anger and angst in a unified direction.

Using an opinion poll for such statistics is very silly.

 

[gbg3]

The Dems are also leading in the VA and NJ Gubernatorial races.

Is this interesting somehow? Haven't the Dems in those two races been leading since the beginning, and substantially? With the way the polls have consistently been on these races, it would be nearly a shock if either of the Dems lost. NJ is a blue state and VA has had a Dem governor 6 times out of the last 10 governorships. So, it's certainly not a red state despite the fact that Youngkin is the current governor. Both the VA state House and Senate are in Dem control currently.

 

[gbg3]

I would wager this trend continues to democratic control of the house in 2026 and a democratic president in 2028 back to republican control of the house in 2030 and a GOP president in 2032. As long as most Americans view both major parties as the problem along with both major parties governing only for their base, I see no break in this current trend.

Just recently, I was chatting about the midterms and 2028 with you and you pointed out you only look at or think about one election at a time. Well, not here, apparently.

I agree with you about 2026. Historical trends tell us it would be quite unusual for the GOP to hold the House next year, especially considering how small their majority currently is. But, listening to Enten's logic on the number of and situation with competitive House seats though, makes me think the GOP shouldn't be completely counted out. And I think it was you who provided an interesting link very recently (maybe Cook?) about the House. It didn't paint a picture of it being a given the Dems would take the House.

 

[Callen]

Is this interesting somehow? Haven't the Dems in those two races been leading since the beginning, and substantially? With the way the polls have consistently been on these races, it would be nearly a shock if either of the Dems lost. NJ is a blue state and VA has had a Dem governor 6 times out of the last 10 governorships. So, it's certainly not a red state despite the fact that Youngkin is the current governor. Both the VA state House and Senate are in Dem control currently.

Picking up another Democratic Governor is always interesting. That makes VA solidly blue.

 

[Perotista]

Just recently, I was chatting about the midterms and 2028 with you and you pointed out you only look at or think about one election at a time. Well, not here, apparently.

I agree with you about 2026. Historical trends tell us it would be quite unusual for the GOP to hold the House next year, especially considering how small their majority currently is. But, listening to Enten's logic on the number of and situation with competitive House seats though, makes me think the GOP shouldn't be completely counted out. And I think it was you who provided an interesting link very recently (maybe Cook?) about the House. It didn't paint a picture of it being a given the Dems would take the House.

Yes, that was me. The house has been basically a 50-50 shot since Trump first took office. Either party gaining or losing 1-5 seats. It wasn’t until June of 2018 that the indication of the blue wave, democrats gaining 42 seats in the house really came into focus. The hints were there all along, the democrats having a 3-5-point lead in the generic congressional ballot since the middle of 2017. But in June of 2018, it shot up to a 7-8-point lead which was basically maintained from that point until the election.

Another difference is that Trump’s overall job approval was down to around 40%, sometime under that. This year so far, he’s at 46% approval. This year 51% disapprove of Trump’s job performance, in 2018 that was up to 55%. That 4- or 5-point difference I think makes a huge difference in the upcoming house election. I think these are all connected.

Folks upset at the president; any president will take that out in the midterm elections. We do have a slight majority of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s job performance. But are they really upset, upset, somewhat upset or just a bit leery? We’ll know the answer to that as time passes. I would say until 55% or more Americans disapprove of the job Trump is currently doing, there will be no blue wave.

Then too, you always have the risk of an unforeseen major event which could throw everything I said out the window.

 

[Callen]

Yes, that was me. The house has been basically a 50-50 shot since Trump first took office. Either party gaining or losing 1-5 seats

The adding of five more districts in TX ups those odds for the GOP keeping the house. If you can't win with the existing rules change them so you can.

 

[mrjurrs]

"In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican."

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

Americans' party identification has shifted from a Republican advantage in 2024 to a Democratic advantage in the second quarter of 2025.

news.gallup.com

View attachment 67583025

Huh, but our local MAGA tell us that the Democrats are in complete disarray, that their reputation is "garbage," and that they will never again win an election unless they stop being "condescending" toward the the bigotry, racism, and corruption among the far right.

Well, turns out the poor approval rating of Dems stems from the fact that Dems themselves think their party is not doing enough to stand up to the kleptocrats, bullies, and liars on the other side of the aisle. The share of Dems eager to vote in 2026 is 22 percentage points higher than among the GOP. This is on top of them outperforming 2024 by an average of 15 points in elections this year.

The narrative from the deplorability defenders is, as usual, self-serving. What Dems need is a leader who can direct their anger and angst in a unified direction.

The Tuesday after the first Monday in November 2026 can't come soon enough

 

[gbg3]

The adding of five more districts in TX ups those odds for the GOP keeping the house. If you can't win with the existing rules change them so you can.

What "existing rules" specifically? Are you thinking redistricting is something unusual, in either red or blues states?

 

[Callen]

What "existing rules" specifically? Are you thinking redistricting is something unusual, in either red or blues states?

"States typically redraw their congressional districts every 10 years, following the completion of the U.S. census. Typically, census data is published at the end of year in which a count takes place. The most recent U.S. census was carried out in 2020. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 census results were delayed until April 2021 . The next census will take place in 2030, and states will begin the redistricting process"

Congressional Redistricting - Bloomberg Government

Explore the congressional redistricting process, from how congressional lines are determined to how the U.S. Census impacts congressional boundaries and elections.

about.bgov.com

 

[gbg3]

"States typically redraw their congressional districts every 10 years, following the completion of the U.S. census. Typically, census data is published at the end of year in which a count takes place. The most recent U.S. census was carried out in 2020. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 census results were delayed until April 2021 . The next census will take place in 2030, and states will begin the redistricting process"

Congressional Redistricting - Bloomberg Government

Explore the congressional redistricting process, from how congressional lines are determined to how the U.S. Census impacts congressional boundaries and elections.

about.bgov.com

Okay, and what "existing rules" are you referring to? "Existing rules" and "typically" indicate two quite different things.

 

[Hip octogenarian]

"In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican."

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

Americans' party identification has shifted from a Republican advantage in 2024 to a Democratic advantage in the second quarter of 2025.

news.gallup.com

View attachment 67583025

Huh, but our local MAGA tell us that the Democrats are in complete disarray, that their reputation is "garbage," and that they will never again win an election unless they stop being "condescending" toward the the bigotry, racism, and corruption among the far right.

Well, turns out the poor approval rating of Dems stems from the fact that Dems themselves think their party is not doing enough to stand up to the kleptocrats, bullies, and liars on the other side of the aisle. The share of Dems eager to vote in 2026 is 22 percentage points higher than among the GOP. This is on top of them outperforming 2024 by an average of 15 points in elections this year.

The narrative from the deplorability defenders is, as usual, self-serving. What Dems need is a leader who can direct their anger and angst in a unified direction.

This is good news and a very hopeful sign.

 

[Callen]

Okay, and what "existing rules" are you referring to. "Existing rules" and "typically" indicate two quite different things.

OK squabble with words. The point is typically and historically redistricting occurs every 10 years after the census. To hell with norms though Trimp will do anything to win .