Democratic pollsters acknowledge 'major errors' in 2020 surveys

[Schism]

Democratic pollsters acknowledge 'major errors' in 2020 surveys

But Biden’s margin of victory was far smaller than what many Democrats expected. The memo from the five pollsters noted that “thanks to the quirks of the electoral college, the difference between a new administration and four more years of Donald Trump was merely 43,000 votes cast across Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.”

House Democrats, meanwhile, ended up suffering a particularly tough series of losses, even as they kept their majority. Republicans picked up 12 seats in the lower chamber, putting them easily within striking distance of recapturing the House in 2022.
The Senate, likewise, only went to Democrats after a pair of wins in two runoff elections in Georgia on Jan. 5. Even at that, the upper chamber is split 50-50, leaving Democrats no room for defections from within their own party.

The memo released on Tuesday noted that low-propensity voters — those who are expected to turn out rarely — broke more for Republicans than for Democrats. But the larger culprit, the pollsters said, was likely a failure to accurately capture the attitudes of certain voters.

Polls have become tools, not to report trends, but rather to shape opinions. I believe they're being used to manipulate, consolidate, and filter results to a predetermined end.

Here's the other interesting tidbit - "the difference between a new administration and four more years of Donald Trump was merely 43,000 votes cast across Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.”

Only 43,000 votes across 3 states. The 3 states Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to prevent strengthening vote integrity. 43K isn't that many votes.

 

[MamboDervish]

Polls have become tools, not to report trends, but rather to shape opinions. I believe they're being used to manipulate, consolidate, and filter results to a predetermined end.

No. I suspect you've misinterpreted the article. It doesn't refer to the generally published polls. It's referring to the internal polling parties use to determine how they message, and how it's doing with its constituency. The article references ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts. These pollsters are for the party to develop strategy and tactics. They don't shape voters opinions.

You're thinking of Rassmussen, Reuters/Ipsos, NPR/Marist, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, FoxNews, NBC/Wall St. Journal, etc. Those are the pollsters that have the potential to sway public opinion, because they're widely reported in the press.

It's apples and basketballs - different fruit altogether.

 

[eohrnberger]

Democratic pollsters acknowledge 'major errors' in 2020 surveys



Polls have become tools, not to report trends, but rather to shape opinions. I believe they're being used to manipulate, consolidate, and filter results to a predetermined end.

Here's the other interesting tidbit - "the difference between a new administration and four more years of Donald Trump was merely 43,000 votes cast across Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.”

Only 43,000 votes across 3 states. The 3 states Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to prevent strengthening vote integrity. 43K isn't that many votes.

And the Democrats H.R. 1 which would remove nearly all election integrity and voter verifications. No wonder they are pushing H.R. 1 so hard.

 

[SCrider]

And the Democrats H.R. 1 which would remove nearly all election integrity and voter verifications. No wonder they are pushing H.R. 1 so hard.

And the ignorance is outstanding......

 

[SCrider]

No. I suspect you've misinterpreted the article. It doesn't refer to the generally published polls. It's referring to the internal polling parties use to determine how they message, and how it's doing with its constituency. The article references ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts. These pollsters are for the party to develop strategy and tactics. They don't shape voters opinions.

You're thinking of Rassmussen, Reuters/Ipsos, NPR/Marist, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, FoxNews, NBC/Wall St. Journal, etc. Those are the pollsters that have the potential to sway public opinion, because they're widely reported in the press.

It's apples and basketballs - different fruit altogether.

Wow that would be a shock.......

 

[Slartibartfast]

Democratic pollsters acknowledge 'major errors' in 2020 surveys



Polls have become tools, not to report trends, but rather to shape opinions. I believe they're being used to manipulate, consolidate, and filter results to a predetermined end.

Here's the other interesting tidbit - "the difference between a new administration and four more years of Donald Trump was merely 43,000 votes cast across Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.”

Only 43,000 votes across 3 states. The 3 states Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to prevent strengthening vote integrity. 43K isn't that many votes.

We are in the middle of a political realignment, it makes sense that pollsters are playing catch up right now as they are not psychic and mathematical models are reactive by nature.

 

[Ikari]

The polls were off in 2016 as well, it's not surprising at all.

 

[Mr Person]

And the Democrats H.R. 1 which would remove nearly all election integrity and voter verifications. No wonder they are pushing H.R. 1 so hard.

Still pushing The Big Lie?

2020 was the most secure election ever, according to Trump officials. The voter fraud was the same as always: a couple handfuls of cases around the country, many of which were double-voting Trumpists.

Now that Republicans are going all-in on their usual voter suppression, something like HR1 is necessary, but I do understand why you would like to see the GOP cheat and steal its way back to power. Then you can go back to triumphantly saying "**** your feelings" and "elections have consequences", all while complaining about how the meanyhead liberals are victimizing the right.

 

[eohrnberger]

And the ignorance is outstanding......

I see that you are showing it.

 

[eohrnberger]

Still pushing The Big Lie?

2020 was the most secure election ever, according to Trump officials. The voter fraud was the same as always: a couple handfuls of cases around the country, many of which were double-voting Trumpists.

If that's the case, then what is the justification for H.R. 1? Which would federalize the control and regulation of elections, among it's many other 'bad' 'features'.

Now that Republicans are going all-in on their usual voter suppression, something like HR1 is necessary, but I do understand why you would like to see the GOP cheat and steal its way back to power. Then you can go back to triumphantly saying "**** your feelings" and "elections have consequences", all while complaining about how the meanyhead liberals are victimizing the right.

Voter suppression political narrative is simply bullshit.
'cheat and steal' 'to power' - Check the Democrats.
This is what they accuse other of doing, which means they are guilty of exactly that far more so than those whom they are accusing.

 

[Schism]

These pollsters are for the party to develop strategy and tactics. They don't shape voters opinions.

LOL!! They don't shape opinion? What do you think the parties are trying to learn from these internal polls?

How NOT to shape opinion? How NOT to gain favor? How NOT to craft winning slogans? Which issues NOT to hammer home?

Are public polls simply dart-boarded questions that were plucked from thin air?

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Democratic pollsters acknowledge 'major errors' in 2020 surveys



Polls have become tools, not to report trends, but rather to shape opinions. I believe they're being used to manipulate, consolidate, and filter results to a predetermined end.

Here's the other interesting tidbit - "the difference between a new administration and four more years of Donald Trump was merely 43,000 votes cast across Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.”

Only 43,000 votes across 3 states. The 3 states Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to prevent strengthening vote integrity. 43K isn't that many votes.

7m more Americans wanted Biden. The EC makes Republicans think they’re popular.

 

[The AntiDonald]

7m more Americans wanted Biden. The EC makes Republicans think they’re popular.

If the congressional districts were re-drawn in a fair manner in all these deep red states, you would see the house pick up 30-50 seats in the next election. It's no wonder the GOP is deathly scared of HR-1 and telling all these lies about it. It will put a stop to all the cheating by picking the voters as opposed to visa-versa.

 

[Schism]

7m more Americans wanted Biden. The EC makes Republicans think they’re popular.

7M out of over 155,000,00 votes is less than a 5% difference. That's how close this was.

In the EC only 48,000 votes between 3 states decided the election. That's how close this was.

I don't believe that you're not aware, so I can only attribute this remark to dishonesty or delusion.

 

[Schism]

If the congressional districts were re-drawn in a fair manner in all these deep red states, you would see the house pick up 30-50 seats in the next election. It's no wonder the GOP is deathly scared of HR-1 and telling all these lies about it. It will put a stop to all the cheating by picking the voters as opposed to visa-versa.

"in a fair manner" is Dem code for "Favors Democrats".

 

[Mr Person]

Still pushing The Big Lie?

2020 was the most secure election ever, according to Trump officials. The voter fraud was the same as always: a couple handfuls of cases around the country, many of which were double-voting Trumpists.

Now that Republicans are going all-in on their usual voter suppression, something like HR1 is necessary, but I do understand why you would like to see the GOP cheat and steal its way back to power. Then you can go back to triumphantly saying "**** your feelings" and "elections have consequences", all while complaining about how the meanyhead liberals are victimizing the right.

If that's the case, then what is the justification for H.R. 1? Which would federalize the control and regulation of elections, among it's many other 'bad' 'features'.

Voter suppression political narrative is simply bullshit.
'cheat and steal' 'to power' - Check the Democrats.
This is what they accuse other of doing, which means they are guilty of exactly that far more so than those whom they are accusing.

Voter suppression is bullshit?

There's barely any voter fraud. Bush's DOJ found ~120 cases over 5 years, getting a whopping 87 convictions. Trump didn't come up with any himself. Virtually all voter fraud cases reported on were by double-voting Trumpists. No doubt there were more, but they get caught. There simply is no widespread voter fraud problem. And if there's no widespread voter fraud problem, why is it that Republicans suddenly want to make it harder to vote?

Why make people stand longer in line if you don't want to suppress votes? Why change anything if, as Trump's own election officials said, 2020 was the most secure election ever?

 

[Mr Person]

If that's the case, then what is the justification for H.R. 1? Which would federalize the control and regulation of elections, among it's many other 'bad' 'features'.

Voter suppression political narrative is simply bullshit.
'cheat and steal' 'to power' - Check the Democrats.
This is what they accuse other of doing, which means they are guilty of exactly that far more so than those whom they are accusing.

Oh right...and there's more....



The fact that Trumpists regurgitated Trump's lies (GOPers describe this as public worry) doesn't mean there is any real concern. Where are the cases?

Why, if there was massive voter fraud, did Trump's lawyers keep telling courts that they have no evidence of and are not even alleging voter fraud?

Why is Sidney Powell desperately trying to get the defamation lawsuit against her dismissed by claiming that no reasonable person would treat her statements about voter fraud as fact? Why is Giuiliani trying similar bullshit in the suit he faces? Why is pillow twat trying to blow all his cash before he too is bankrupt?

Every last one of these people said they'd welcome a lawsuit so that they could present their evidence of massive voter fraud. So why are they trying to get the suits dismissed?







All that's going on here is that you Trumpists repeated the dumbest anti-left bullshit imaginable because it was anti-left, and you simply cannot face admitting that you did that. You know there's no mass voter fraud problem. You know Powell, Giuiliani, Trump, all of them, were lying their asses of.

Just give it up. It's too stupid.

 

[weaver2]

7M out of over 155,000,00 votes is less than a 5% difference. That's how close this was.

In the EC only 48,000 votes between 3 states decided the election. That's how close this was.

I don't believe that you're not aware, so I can only attribute this remark to dishonesty or delusion.

Almost all presidential elections are that closely decided. The 5% is no some aberration. It's actually pretty standard. As for 48,000 votes being the difference: it still means Biden won. The Republican problem is not the amount Trump lost by: your problem is that you allowed the ignorant, the intolerant and the delusional to shred your party. Quit distracting yourselves with voting and rebuild your party. Democracy only works if there are two working parties. Your's isn't.

 

[bongsaway]

7M out of over 155,000,00 votes is less than a 5% difference. That's how close this was.

In the EC only 48,000 votes between 3 states decided the election. That's how close this was.

I don't believe that you're not aware, so I can only attribute this remark to dishonesty or delusion.

Close may be good enough in horseshoes and hand grenades but not in a presidential election.

 

[Schism]

There's barely any voter fraud.

That's awesome! Hopefully we can drive that number down to zero!

 

[bongsaway]

Oh right...and there's more....



The fact that Trumpists regurgitated Trump's lies (GOPers describe this as public worry) doesn't mean there is any real concern. Where are the cases?

Why, if there was massive voter fraud, did Trump's lawyers keep telling courts that they have no evidence of and are not even alleging voter fraud?

Why is Sidney Powell desperately trying to get the defamation lawsuit against her dismissed by claiming that no reasonable person would treat her statements about voter fraud as fact? Why is Giuiliani trying similar bullshit in the suit he faces? Why is pillow twat trying to blow all his cash before he too is bankrupt?

Every last one of these people said they'd welcome a lawsuit so that they could present their evidence of massive voter fraud. So why are they trying to get the suits dismissed?







All that's going on here is that you Trumpists repeated the dumbest anti-left bullshit imaginable because it was anti-left, and you simply cannot face admitting that you did that. You know there's no mass voter fraud problem. You know Powell, Giuiliani, Trump, all of them, were lying their asses of.

Just give it up. It's too stupid.

Apparently for some it's still not too stupid.

 

[Mr Person]

Voter suppression is bullshit?

There's barely any voter fraud. Bush's DOJ found ~120 cases over 5 years, getting a whopping 87 convictions. Trump didn't come up with any himself. Virtually all voter fraud cases reported on were by double-voting Trumpists. No doubt there were more, but they get caught. There simply is no widespread voter fraud problem. And if there's no widespread voter fraud problem, why is it that Republicans suddenly want to make it harder to vote?

Why make people stand longer in line if you don't want to suppress votes? Why change anything if, as Trump's own election officials said, 2020 was the most secure election ever?

That's awesome! Hopefully we can drive that number down to zero!

Or, y'know, we can simply not count the ....oh.... 20 fraudulent votes per year and just put the dumbasses in jail. We could also do that. But that wouldn't help Republicans get elected because more people would be voting.

But, chin up, you can still donate to Trump's efforts to retake the throne. Just watch out for that sneaky repeat-withdrawal box ...

 

[Helix]

Tweety lost.

 

[Schism]

Close may be good enough in horseshoes and hand grenades but not in a presidential election.

Oh, I agree! That's why is't so important to be 100% confident in the integrity of every. single. vote.

 

[bongsaway]

Oh, I agree! That's why is't so important to be 100% confident in the integrity of every. single. vote.

In other words if I may, my super of elections in my county sending me my ballot is not good enough for you?