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Current House Race Status...Running Tally -- And Fetterman Won The PA Senate Race!!

CA Update:

The Washington Post currently predicts the Democrats to win 7 of the 9 closest CA races. This could make things interesting when it comes to who ultimately controls the House.

1) CA-9 - prediction: Dem hold
2) *CA-13 (open) - prediction: Dem gain
3) *CA-22 - prediction: Dem gain
4) CA-26 - prediction: Dem hold
5) *CA-27 - prediction: Dem gain
6) *CA-41 - prediction: Repub hold
7) CA-45 - prediction: Repub hold
8) CA-47 - prediction: Dem hold
9) CA-49 - prediction: Dem hold

This would result in 3 Democratic gains in the House.

CA-3 is also in play, I believe it is a newly redrawn district. No Washington Post prediction is available. It's currently 53% - 47% in favor of the Republican with 44% of the vote counted.
 
Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 14 definite pickups (4 in FL, 3 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, MI-10, and TX-15). +9 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 5 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-2, AZ-6, CO-8, MD-6, and NY-4.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 6 races in Republican-held districts: CO-3, NM-2, WA-3, CA-13, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats are also currently winning in Republican-held districts AZ-1, CO-8, and CA-41 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these 3 races.



Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
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Correction, MI-10 was not a Republican gain, it was a Republican hold......


Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 13 definite pickups (4 in FL, 3 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, and TX-15). +8 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 5 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-2, AZ-6, CO-8, MD-6, and NY-4.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 6 races in Republican-held districts: CO-3, NM-2, WA-3, CA-13, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats are also currently winning in Republican-held districts AZ-1, CO-8, and CA-41 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these 3 races.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
Republicans have also picked-up NY-4, which was another Democrat-held seat.
 
Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 14 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, and TX-15). +9 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-2, AZ-6, CO-8, and MD-6.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 6 races in Republican-held districts: CO-3, NM-2, WA-3, CA-13, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats are also currently winning in Republican-held districts AZ-1, CO-8, and CA-41 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these 3 races.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
CA-13 would not be considered a Dem gain. It's actually a Dem hold. My mistake.
 
Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 14 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, and TX-15). +9 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-2, AZ-6, CO-8, and MD-6.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 6 races in Republican-held districts: CO-3, CO-8, NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats are also currently winning in Republican-held districts AZ-1 and CA-41 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these 2 races.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
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The Washington Post is no longer predicting that Kirkmeyer (R) will prevail in CO-8. They currently have no prediction. This will be a pickup for Dems if Caraveo (D) maintains her lead.

Caraveo (D) is currently winning by about 1,150 votes, with 92% counted.
 


There are currently 38 House seats where no winner has been declared.

As I described in Post #82, it looks like the Republicans are in good position to flip 5 more seats. The Democrats are in good position to flip 8 more seats.

That would lower the Republican net gain to +6. The Republicans need to stay at +5 or above in order to get control of the House.
 
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Correction: The Republicans are no longer favored to win CO-8. Therefore, they are in good position to flip 5 more seats (not 6 more seats).

The Democrats are in good position to flip 8 more seats.

That would lower the Republican net gain from +9 to +6.
 
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AZ-1 is not currently favored as a Republican win. Previously, it was. No prediction by the Washington Post right now.

AZ-1 would be another Democratic gain.

Washington Post is now saying that Kirkmeyer (R) is still slightly favored to win in CO-8. That would be a Repub hold, not a gain.
 
Democrats should also have a reasonable shot at flipping CA-40 and CA-45. Biden won CA-45 by 6 points in 2020.

CA-3 is also very close (newly drawn district).

The Democrats still have a reasonable shot at flipping about 10 Republican-held seats. That could be enough to prevent Republican control of the House.
 
38 House races still undeclared.

Democrats currently leading in 25 of these races.

Republicans currently leading in 13 of these races.

Democrats might be able to flip up to 8 seats currently held by Republicans, as described in post #82 above. That might be be enough to prevent Republican control of the House.

However, the Republicans might flip 4 or 5 more seats as well. Therefore, the Democrats are probably going to need to flip at least 10 House seats to have a reasonable shot to lower the Republicans current +9 margin to a +4 margin. Not impossible.

Republicans need a +5 margin to win the House.
 
CA-40 has been called for Kim (R). That is a Republican hold, not a flip. It gets the Republicans to 210 in the House seat count.

The Republicans have to get to 218 to hold the majority.
 


36 House races still undeclared.

Democrats currently leading in 24 of these races.

Republicans currently leading in 12 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 14 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, and TX-15). +9 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-2, AZ-6, CO-8, and MD-6.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
CT-5 was recently called for the Democrats. That is a Democratic hold, not a flip. It gets the Democrats to 189 in the House seat count.
 
Democrats held onto WA-8. This is a Democratic hold, not a flip. It gets the Democrats to 190 in the House seat count.

 
Republicans just won AZ-2. That is a flip. They are now at +10 overall.
 


34 House races still undeclared.

Democrats currently leading in 23 of these races.

Republicans currently leading in 11 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 15 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, and AZ-2). +10 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 3 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-6, CO-8, and MD-6.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
The Democrats have held onto OR-4. It's a gain, but not a flip. That is a total of 191 seats for them.
 


33 House races still undeclared.

Democrats currently leading in 22 of these races.

Republicans currently leading in 11 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 15 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, and AZ-2). +10 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 2 races in Democratic-held districts: AZ-6 and MD-6.

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
Ryan (D) hung on to win NY-18. This is a Dem hold, not a flip.
 


31 House races still undeclared.

Democrats currently leading in 21 of these races.

Republicans currently leading in 10 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 15 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, and AZ-2). +10 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 1 race in Democratic-held districts: AZ-6

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 

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Good News!! The Democrats hung on to MD-6 in western Maryland. That would have been a Republican gain. The Republican candidate was leading that race for the past 3 days.

I will correct post #98 to reflect this update.
 
The Democrats have held two more of their House seats: OR-4 and one of the CA seats, I believe CA-39.

These are both Dem gains, but not flips.
 
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