COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study

[Jay59]

I have a PhD in Physics.

1918 was the Spanish Flu a pandemic, in recent years, we average about 35K for a standard flu season, with 2017-2018 season being the worst of recent years getting up to 61K. When people say "just as bad as the flu" we aren't comparing pandemics of a century past. Our tech is far more advanced more than 1918. When one wants to compare to the flu, then we're talking about the modern world and standard flu seasons. So 1918 is well out.

I would think that as a statistician, you'd understand proper sampling.

So again, worst flu season we've had in comparable years would be 2017-2018 with 61K. In a year. In less than 3 months, we got 45K, so we're already in spitting distance in 1/4 of the time. Obviously, Covid is not "just as bad as the flu".

Great. If I have a particle in a box question, I'll know who to ask. My emphasis was actuarial.

Probably the best comparison would be H1N1 in 2009, because we took almost no precautions and the two viruses are closely related.

 

[longview]

The raw data tell you that 50 of 3300 or so tested positive for exposure. That's all the raw data say. The end.

The rest is from the analysis, and every expert I've seen look at that analysis says it's garbage. So you cannot simply take 50 positives, some of them likely false positives, from a bad sample, and then extrapolate that to the sample population. It's a bogus interpretation of the data.

I understand what you are saying, the error margin is just as large as the positive sample rate,
but the reality is that with perhaps just over 1% of the symptomatic population tested, we know almost nothing about the actual infection rate.
On the Aircraft Carrier, with most of the population of 4800 tested, they had 660 positives, or over 13%,
over half of which were asymptomatic. If that translates to the general population, our number of infected
could easily double.

 

[Ikari]

Great. If I have a particle in a box question, I'll know who to ask. My emphasis was actuarial.

Probably the best comparison would be H1N1 in 2009, because we took almost no precautions and the two viruses are closely related.

They are more closely related and the tech is closer to being the same. We didn't take precautions for that one, and that took 18K in 1 year. We've more than doubled that in a quarter of the time.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

The CDC site is just as bad.

There is nothing wrong with the image I posted, this site compresses the image when it is posted, but if you open the image in a new window it retains the original size....and.....if you would just open the FREE article from the NYT you would AGAIN get the graph in all of its glory....but you won't do either.

 

[haymarket]

I wouldn't give em a nickel

And I am pretty sure they are happy with that arrangement.

 

[haymarket]

Uh huh. Sure. LMAO

I notice that reality hits you that way.

 

[Threegoofs]

There analysis of the data may well be junk, but the raw data is still real and relevant!
The tested 3,330 residents and found the antibodies present in 1.5% of the sample population.
Extrapolating the raw number to the national level would mean ~4.9 million Americans have been exposed.
Even if you took today's confirmed cases of 831,283, it would mean that 5.9 times as many people have been
infected as have been confirmed.

And 5MM Americans is about 1.5% of the population.

The number of deaths are now at 46K (but we probably have about 60K deaths baked in- people who are sick/infected who will eventually die), that means a death rate of 1.2%. Sounds about right. Much worse than regular flu,but not crazy high. But lets back off and just say an even 1%, as a conservative estimate.

With the full compliment of people being infected, its estimated that 60% exposure of the entire population should give us herd immunity. 60% of 330MM is about 200MM. At that death rate, which is probably a low estimate, that translates to 2MM deaths.

I’d say that 2MM deaths in the year to get to herd immunity is bad.

 

[longview]

First, the study was not subjected to peer review although it has been roundly bashed by researchers at Columbia for its methods and conclusions, one of which is that the antibody test is has a high false positive rate

I understand the error bars, it does seem strange that the error ratio is referenced to the number of "true negative samples" as opposed to the number of test administrated.
There is a good article about the challenges of statistical analysis of Covid-19
Covid-19 testing: overcoming the challenges - STAT

 

[Threegoofs]

Great. If I have a particle in a box question, I'll know who to ask. My emphasis was actuarial.

Probably the best comparison would be H1N1 in 2009, because we took almost no precautions and the two viruses are closely related.

LOL.

No precautions?

We had a vaccine within months (before the fall flu season) and massive testing capability when it appeared in the spring. It was almost textbook preparation - theres a reason no one remembers it as a serious threat....because it was well handled.

 

[longview]

And 5MM Americans is about 1.5% of the population.

The number of deaths are now at 46K (but we probably have about 60K deaths baked in- people who are sick/infected who will eventually die), that means a death rate of 1.2%. Sounds about right. Much worse than regular flu,but not crazy high. But lets back off and just say an even 1%, as a conservative estimate.

With the full compliment of people being infected, its estimated that 60% exposure of the entire population should give us herd immunity. 60% of 330MM is about 200MM. At that death rate, which is probably a low estimate, that translates to 2MM deaths.

I’d say that 2MM deaths in the year to get to herd immunity is bad.

We cannot say much about mortality, until we know the actual infection rate.
There is simply not sufficient data to extrapolate out.
I think even the Aircraft Carrier is not a valid sample, because the population skews younger and heather than the general population,
but the carrier had a much higher infection rate, and a much lower mortality rate.
I think the infection rate was 13.75% while the mortality rate was 1 death out of 4800, or .02%.

 

[Threegoofs]

We cannot say much about mortality, until we know the actual infection rate.
There is simply not sufficient data to extrapolate out.
I think even the Aircraft Carrier is not a valid sample, because the population skews younger and heather than the general population,
but the carrier had a much higher infection rate, and a much lower mortality rate.
I think the infection rate was 13.75% while the mortality rate was 1 death out of 4800, or .02%.

Then why bother calculating that 5MM are infected when clearly you dont even believe the number?

And an aircraft carrier has precisely how many people at retirement age? Because deaths are disproportionately loaded toward those over 50, and especially over 70.

 

[longview]

Then why bother calculating that 5MM are infected when clearly you dont even believe the number?

And an aircraft carrier has precisely how many people at retirement age? Because deaths are disproportionately loaded toward those over 50, and especially over 70.

Hey, I said the I did not think the Aircraft Carrier was a valid sample, for that reason.
Also the 5 Million in your number, extrapolated from the questionable 1.5% infection rate.
The bottom line is that we really do not know much about the actual infection rate, beyond the we know it is higher than the current testing rate.
How do we know this? Well because our current testing is massively skewed to symptomatic patients,
and we know that there are quite a few asymptomatic infected people out there.

 

[Paradoxical]

Show us the chart... or link to the data.. you can upload it any number of places on the internet for free and anonymously... What file format is the chart?

It is in picture format

 

[BlueTex]

It is in picture format

Here you go... Imgur: The magic of the Internet completely anonymous, please share the link it returns

 

[Jay59]

Your analysis was wrong, and contrary to the way we record deaths. The attending physician doesn't have to 'guess' how long my mother in law would have lived, then attribute the death to old age or heart disease if the doctor estimates she wouldn't have survived the month. If in his professional judgment CV19 tipped her over the edge, it's PROPERLY a CV19 death. See, the fire example.

Your mother is a case in point on my side of the ledger, so I am not sure what your argument really is.

What's with the fire example? No points of contact.

They are more closely related and the tech is closer to being the same. We didn't take precautions for that one, and that took 18K in 1 year. We've more than doubled that in a quarter of the time.

All that is true. What's your point?

I notice that reality hits you that way.

Not reality, just your take on it. The two also have no points of contact.

 

[Ikari]

All that is true. What's your point?

Covid is quite different from the flu and has the potential to be far deadlier.

 

[Paradoxical]

"Ive got info, I can't find it...but it is there....somewhere"

Is there ANYTHING you don't f#*k up?

LMAO. I have it.It's a JPEG picture. 522 by 837

 

[Paradoxical]

There is nothing wrong with the image I posted, this site compresses the image when it is posted, but if you open the image in a new window it retains the original size....and.....if you would just open the FREE article from the NYT you would AGAIN get the graph in all of its glory....but you won't do either.

The NYT is hurting so bad, they make you subscribe. They are a two bit site.

 

[Paradoxical]

Here you go... Imgur: The magic of the Internet completely anonymous, please share the link it returns

Here ya go everyone.Thanks to Blue Tex, the truth is now reveled to all

Flu versus COVID - Album on Imgur

 

[Jay59]

Covid is quite different from the flu and has the potential to be far deadlier.

So same old song and dance, with no adjustment for what we have learned in the last month. Gotcha.

LMAO. I have it.It's a JPEG picture. 522 by 837

Post it in a spoiler.

LOL. No precautions? We had a vaccine within months (before the fall flu season) and massive testing capability when it appeared in the spring. It was almost textbook preparation - theres a reason no one remembers it as a serious threat....because it was well handled.

No gloves. No distancing. No crowd restrictions. No special sanitizing. No precautions.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

The NYT is hurting so bad, they make you subscribe. They are a two bit site.

All of their covid articles are free, the graph I posted was compressed by this site, you have NO excuses. No one else is to blame for your inability to open images in a new window, your inability to read a graph, your inability to do simple subtraction....or your ability to attempt to distract with whatabouts.

 

[Ikari]

So same old song and dance, with no adjustment for what we have learned in the last month. Gotcha.

What are you talking about? We've sailed past H1N1 in the past month, we've come up on one of the worst standard flu year (2017-2018) in the last month. It just seems that some folk are just trying their best to deflect away from the dangers of Covid for their own political propaganda.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

LMAO. I have it.It's a JPEG picture. 522 by 837

That is NOT "too large" to post.

Are you incapable of doing ANYTHING?

 

[BlueTex]

Here ya go everyone.Thanks to Blue Tex, the truth is now reveled to all

Flu versus COVID - Album on Imgur

Seems to post here just fine...



So what we are looking at is a full year of flu deaths compared to the number of COVID19 deaths from January to April 14th. Correct?

For anyone wanting to look at the CDC source data: Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

Here is the source for the COVID19 data:

United States Coronavirus: 830,566 Cases and 46,235 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[Paradoxical]

So same old song and dance, with no adjustment for what we have learned in the last month. Gotcha.


Post it in a spoiler.


No gloves. No distancing. No crowd restrictions. No special sanitizing. No precautions.

It's posted now.