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Covid-19 deaths could triple by the end of 2021

Luckyone

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The University of Washington study has stated that deaths from Covid-19 could triple by the end of 2021

Study predicts US virus death toll to triple by 2021
Deaths estimated to range between 350K - 1.2M by year's end, according to University of Washington study
Michael Hernandez |19.05.2020



WASHINGTON
The US death toll from the novel coronavirus will likely triple before the year is finished, according to a recent study.
The University of Washington's Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy and Economics Institute found the death rate from the virus is 13 times as high as the seasonal flu, which averages about a 0.1% fatality rate. The death rate for those infected with the coronavirus and display symptoms is 1.3%, according to the study.

The number of deaths predicted with that level of infection would range between 350,000 on the low end and 1.2 million at the upper level, according to Basu's study.
It is estimated that if mask wearing was mandated by authorities and at least 80% of the people wore masks, that anywhere from 24-65% of deaths would have and could (in the future) be prevented.

Another projection developed by researchers at Arizona State University in April showed that 24–65% of projected deaths could be prevented in Washington state in April and May if 80% of people wore cloth or homemade masks in public.

These projections shed light on the promises face masks might hold as COVID-19 cases surge in some states and more local authorities mandate the wearing of face masks.
Here is a chart of the current usage of mask by gender and by political affiliation. In other words, the Republicans are not wearing masks in great numbers. I wonder why?

maskusage1.jpeg
 

Airyaman

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Tbh, studies that predict the number of deaths are garbage. Very few (any?) of them have been accurate.
 

Luckyone

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Tbh, studies that predict the number of deaths are garbage. Very few (any?) of them have been accurate.
Prove your statement. Words are cheap.

I have actually found that more often studies have been wrong on the opposite (higher numbers) than on the other side (lower numbers). Estimates can never be exact given that they are estimates but they are based on patterns of behavior and those do not often change.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Tbh, studies that predict the number of deaths are garbage. Very few (any?) of them have been accurate.
"Prediction" and "projection" are not the same things.

Assuming that all of the current conditions remain unchanged the PROJECTED numbers are

20-09-25 A2 - COVID vs Other Causes TABLE.JPG
Of course those factors will NOT remain unchanged, and it takes a PREDICTION to account for the changes.
 
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