Higgins86
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Coronavirus: Worldwide peak will come next winter, scientific model predicts | Science & Tech News | Sky News
Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.
Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.
In a paper currently undergoing peer-review, research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates.
[/B]
Their model suggests we are currently experiencing a "small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere" which will be followed by "a larger peak in winter 2020-21".
Based on other coronaviruses, the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again, infecting as many as a 100 million people in total.
Its starting to look like we are just at the start of what could be a very turbulent and trying 12 months. It's going to be interesting to see how world governments get ready for this potential 2nd outbreak.
Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.
Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.
In a paper currently undergoing peer-review, research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates.
[/B]
Their model suggests we are currently experiencing a "small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere" which will be followed by "a larger peak in winter 2020-21".
Based on other coronaviruses, the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again, infecting as many as a 100 million people in total.
Its starting to look like we are just at the start of what could be a very turbulent and trying 12 months. It's going to be interesting to see how world governments get ready for this potential 2nd outbreak.
