It is called "stagflation" and is exactly what many economists were predicting including the Fed.What's concerning is core inflation is rising while consumer demand and jobs are lagging.
Yup, which is a tricky and painful place to be.It is called "stagflation" and is exactly what many economists were predicting including the Fed.
Not yet, but it is peeking over the horizon.It is called "stagflation" and is exactly what many economists were predicting including the Fed.
That was always the deal. Corporations got used to price gouging, and Trump isn't gonna be the one to tell them no. They don't need to sell to all the plebs anymore, just the Richies.What's concerning is core inflation is rising while consumer demand and jobs are lagging.
I thought we couldn’t trust the data any longer?Yes rising inflation is back and it it appears to be picking up steam. In other news the Administration announced they will no longer be giving monthly job reports. I wonder why that is ? Also corporate bankruptcies are at the highest rate in 15 years. So much winning.....
The market is liking the report. Russell is up over 2% and Dow 1% on bets of a September rate cut.The problem is, I don't think we can trust the CPI numbers.
So we need to be cautious.
But where we sit, interest rates cuts are out of the cards and more evidence if you weren't already convinced...
Trump is an economically illiterate fool and he's going to crash the United States into a mountain.
Politically.
Socially.
And Economically.
This is a disaster.
You mean you don't trust any data that disagrees with Trump's lies.I thought we couldn’t trust the data any longer?
It's called rising inflation and you can't cut rates when it is rising or risk even higher rates of inflation.What is Powell's rationale for not lowering interest rates?
The market is delusional...The market is liking the report. Russell is up over 2% and Dow 1% on bets of a September rate cut.
What do you expect for GDP growth?Not yet, but it is peeking over the horizon.
Yes rising inflation is back and it it appears to be picking up steam. In other news the Administration announced they will no longer be giving monthly job reports. I wonder why that is ? Also corporate bankruptcies are at the highest rate in 15 years. So much winning.....
What's concerning is core inflation is rising while consumer demand and jobs are lagging.
Up from what, a 1% decrease the previous month and a slight decrease in April? For the second quarter, retail sales are down.Retail sales were up in June.
I'm going to suggest that it will be impacted similarly to the last one, in other words, ir will be positively impacted by less imports. Whether domestic production and consumption change I couldn't guess, I just don't follow the individual economic reports leading to GDP closely enough.What do you expect for GDP growth?
It should be illegal to use 'stagflation' and 3% inflation in the same sentence.It is called "stagflation" and is exactly what many economists were predicting including the Fed.
Up from what, a 1% decrease the previous month and a slight decrease in April? For the second quarter, retail sales are down.
If you have inflation above the baseline of 2% and an economy that is not growing, then it's stagflation. Granted, that is mild stagflation, but that is what it is.It should be illegal to use 'stagflation' and 3% inflation in the same sentence.
If you study history during the 70s and early 80s when the USA actually did experience stagflation you will find that inflation was above 10% and still spiking up. What do we have now? A relatively stable 3%. I mean... come on. Even Biden and the pandemic didn't get us over 10%. 70s inflation was caused by a massive punitive oil embargo, combined with a lax/easy monetary policy. Once inflation get a foothold in the consumer mindset it's hard to stop it. This tariff thing is big, but it ain't that big. Consumers and companies have way to adapt and mitigate the negative effects, for example stockpiling or switching to domestic vendors which happens to be the preferred outcome. So far it's 'much to do about nothing'. Stock markets both domestic and global are at or near all-time highs. I don't think the sky's falling.If you have inflation above the baseline of 2% and an economy that is not growing, then it's stagflation. Granted, that is mild stagflation, but that is what it is.
I am not sure why conservatives have all of a sudden lost their understanding of basic market economics and free market principles, well other than they forgot them out of devotion to Trump. The worst thing for a business, worse than unionization, higher taxes, or burdensome regulations, is uncertainty. Businesses cannot plan for the future and they cannot plan where to invest in themselves when the Trump administration is changing trade policy on a literal daily basis. High tariffs are bad for business as they are a huge tax increase for them, but a business can at least plan for that assuming they don't change on a daily basis. Its the constant changes at the whim of Trump that is hurting the economy.
People want to make money. They want to make money regardless of whether Democrats are in office or Republicans. This is why administrations typically don't have a lot of influence on economic growth. Businesses might prefer one administration's policies over another, but in the end, people want to make money, and they will figure out a way to make money. This constant change, constant policy uncertainty puts businesses into survival mode rather than growth mode - particularly any business that isn't strictly services. They will act very conservatively, hoard resources, and delay business investment under such a climate.
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