Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years

[Chomsky]

I see it and you see it but the bottom 1/3 could give a shit less about GDP.

It's not time to panic, but it is something to watch for.

Tariffs retard trade, and reducing trade reduces economic activity.

 

[PeteEU]

It's the negative GDP that bothers me the most.

We won't know if it's a temp glitch or not, until essentially JLY.

95% chance of flat or negative growth. The nr. 1 thing that drives consumption is consumer confidence...which is heading south, and that exports to the US from China has all but collapsed means even if consumers wanted to buy, the items either would not exist or be way more expensive due to limited supply..

 

[Chomsky]

If there's going to be a recession it will be because the idiotic, trade-war, 4,000 percent, on again off again tariffs caused so much chaos and uncertainty businesses and consumers across the world tightened their belts. If there's not going to be a recession it will be because Trump caved like a coward on his idiotic tariff policies.

In any case, everyone is sick of Trump and Trump's idiotic tariff policies.

By the way, as a reminder, there has not been a single deal signed.

I can personally speak to the bolded! Yish!

 

[ldub23]

so much for recession.time to lower rates

Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years

Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

rices barely climbed in April, pulling the annual rate of inflation down toward the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, even while personal income climbed at a rapid rate.


The personal consumption price index climbed 0.1 percent in April, the second month in a row in which consumers got relief from inflation that had plagued the economy throughout the Biden administration. In March, the index showed prices were flat.


Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.


Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021.

More good news.

 

[Hello My Son]

Not to rain on what may otherwise seem like good news, but we are experiencing negative GDP - and shrinking consumerism could be signaling we are entering a recession.

Probably has a lot to do with the record amount of credit card debt with extremely low reserves in savings coming back to bite the average American consumer in the ass.

 

[Chomsky]

It seems like political points and gotcha tries clouds everyone's judgement.

Core PCE falling comes with the inherent concern of a slowing economy, Consumer Spending (CS) is the first metric in the math for GDP. Since we've already had a quarter of GDP decline, largely driven by over supply buying in advance of the tariffs, then we are watching a potential setup for

another quarter of decline. Or, a recession maybe or maybe not.

Same report, "Consumer spending slowed sharply for the month" posting just a 0.2% increase which is much less than the 0.7% rate in March. Consumer Spending continues to slow we have a problem.

The concern being what people are doing with their income. When spending slows but income increases *and* personal savings inches up we know consumers are cautious. Spending on needs not wants, which lines up with inflation cooling since demand is decreasing.

The Fed will now have a new consideration to make, not because of Trump's wants for interest rates but because of what consumer sentiment is.

Trump does not get to claim a victory, by aligning to a possible solution with monetary policy, that addresses an economic fault(s) partially created by that person claiming victory.

Great post.

But, I feel the need to address the bolded:

"Another quarter of decline", following the decline of the previous quarter, is indeed the textbook definition of a Recession!

 

[trixare4kids]

so much for recession.time to lower rates

Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years

Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

rices barely climbed in April, pulling the annual rate of inflation down toward the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, even while personal income climbed at a rapid rate.


The personal consumption price index climbed 0.1 percent in April, the second month in a row in which consumers got relief from inflation that had plagued the economy throughout the Biden administration. In March, the index showed prices were flat.


Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.


Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021.

I'm happy to read this great news!

 

[ncguy]

This is good news for today, but the market wasn't very impressed, stocks falling significantly, bond yields slightly down. Tariff impacts aren't really here yet, and all of this has been helped by the fall in oil prices which are firming up, and unlikely to continue to fall much...unless the global economy collapses, in which case we'll have low inflation...but high unemployment.

 

[Chomsky]

What has happened to the economy over the last 5 years has been unprecedented and no economist understands it. This is a learning experience not a place for knee-jerk reactions.

Which is why we wait for this quarter's numbers, to actually determine if we're indeed in a recession.

But we've already had one quarter of receding growth, and now we're seeing falling price growth alongside falling consumer demand in this quarter. At the least, we need to remain vigilant.

 

[trixare4kids]

Was there a point I missed? Meanwhile the cost of eggs (Trump's favourite metric), has risen 49% and, contrary to Trump's lies, gas (petrol) prices are increasing, averaging $3.30.

Link?
In the U.S., people are buying eggs again, and recent data indicates shifts in both consumer behavior and egg prices. Are you talking about your own country because you appear to be wrong about ours.

More recent data from FinanceBuzz, updated May 26, 2025, shows the average retail cost of a dozen eggs at $3.64, down 33.9% from the March peak and $0.65 lower than two weeks prior.

Egg Index: How Much Eggs Cost in Supermarkets This Week

Rising egg prices have put a dent in Americans' grocery shopping budgets. At FinanceBuzz, we're sharing real-time egg prices from supermarkets across the U.S. so you can keep tabs on the cost of a dozen eggs.

financebuzz.com

 

[trixare4kids]

Look at the lefties being angry that inflation is being brought under control. They’d rather die of starvation because of Bidenflation than admit they were wrong.

Some things never change. Partisanship is rearing its ugly head on this thread.

 

[ncguy]

Trump Derangement Syndrome

who is angry about this? i'd love some names.

 

[ScrambledEggs]

Does this mean we are officially in "Trump's" economy now?

 

[ncguy]

Some things never change. Partisanship is rearing its ugly head on this thread.

who is angry about this? i'd love some names

 

[trixare4kids]

Further, look at the lefties trying to claim that it was Biden's policies which has brought down inflation, when it has already been established that Biden's spending explosion threw gas on inflation beyond what COVID and its supply chain had caused.

What policies? Did old sleepy Biden know he had policies?

They can claim anything they'd like but inflation under Biden hit a 40 year high under his reign to 9.1% and by April 2025 during Trump's time in office trended downward to a mere 2.5%.

 

[ncguy]

What policies? Did old sleepy Biden know he had policies?

They can claim anything they'd like but inflation under Biden hit a 40 year high under his reign to 9.1% and by April 2025 during Trump's time in office trended downward to a mere 2.5%.

no need to "claim anything they like", but inflation was under 3% by the time trump over, so his decrease is not very significant.
and tariff inflation effects are yet to be significantly incurred.

 

[Chomsky]

Probably has a lot to do with the record amount of credit card debt with extremely low reserves in savings coming back to bite the average American consumer in the ass.

I think the Trump induced economic chaos has given many some pause.

Given the steep drop in Consumer Confidence until the last report, many of us may simply be choosing to play it safe.

 

[upsideguy]

so much for recession.time to lower rates

Core Inflation Falls To Lowest Rate In Four Years

Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

rices barely climbed in April, pulling the annual rate of inflation down toward the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, even while personal income climbed at a rapid rate.


The personal consumption price index climbed 0.1 percent in April, the second month in a row in which consumers got relief from inflation that had plagued the economy throughout the Biden administration. In March, the index showed prices were flat.


Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.


Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021.

Enjoy your moment in the sun.... kind of like the eye of hurricane.

We have yet to see the effects of the tariffs other than know that they have supposedly collected $80B of tariffs, which means we have a reverse stimulus of $80B. Normally that alone would represent a slowing of the economy, much of the $80B is going to be added to the cost of goods, resulting inflation. So, when you slow the economy through efforts that cause inflation, you create stagflation, which is a bit of economic quicksand.

So, enjoy your champagne at your feel good, clueless celebration. This whole thing ain't over.

Look at the lefties being angry that inflation is being brought under control. They’d rather die of starvation because of Bidenflation than admit they were wrong.

If you were truly politically aware, you would know inflation was brought under control (not solved, but under control, under 3% and on a good trajectory) over a year ago.

Unless you can point to a policy that Trump has implemented, he has nothing to do with this (other than slowing the economy, which does bring down inflation). If inflation existed when Trump took office (as you seem to imply), you could not make a meaningful impact on it in two months (these are April numbers, what did he do in February or March to impact this, other than slowing the economy). So, either inflation was under control when Trump took office, in which case he was just taking credit for Biden's work, or you can cite high inflation number for December 2024?

But you, I and the rest of the board know that you are just ascribing the good works of the Biden administration to Trump, which is his Trump's MO. He rarely actually has a positive impact on anything he does. He took a lot of credit for the good work Obama did in his last term.

Again, the upward pressure on prices is in front of us. If inflation is low in August, then take a lap, assuming we are not recession at the point. Until then, you are prematurely and ignorantly celebrating as economics does not seem to be in your wheelhouse of expertise.

PS - I doubt you gave Biden any credit, yet you seem to think that non-Trump supporters owe kudos to Trump. Why? Seems a bit hypocritical. Here is your chance to record a public "thanks Biden" to show us you do own the moral high ground, but you won't.

 

[Greenbeard]

They can claim anything they'd like but inflation under Biden hit a 40 year high under his reign to 9.1% and by April 2025 during Trump's time in office trended downward to a mere 2.5%.

We hit that nine months ago, well before "Trump's time in office."

US inflation fell to 2.4% in September

Figures for headline and core rates marginally surpass expectations

www.ft.com

 

[Chomsky]

This is good news for today, but the market wasn't very impressed, stocks falling significantly, bond yields slightly down.

Tariff impacts aren't really here yet, and all of this has been helped by the fall in oil prices which are firming up, and unlikely to continue to fall much...unless the global economy collapses, in which case we'll have low inflation...but high unemployment.

The market decline had at least a strong component of fears over Trump's claim the China negotiations have gone south!

I started a thread,

Here:

Thread '(ABC News) Trump claims China 'totally violated' trade agreement with US'

May 30, 2025

Trump claims China 'totally violated' trade agreement with US

U.S. stocks fell slightly in early trading after the comments from Trump.

abcnews.go.com

--

"China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US," Trump said in a social media post Friday morning. "So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!"

Trump did not identify the action taken by China that had violated the agreement.

The remarks came hours after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced pessimism about U.S.-China trade talks in an interview with Fox News on Thursday night.

--

It appears the China Tariff...

• Chomsky
• Replies: 41
• Forum: Breaking News

• 

 

[ncguy]

The market decline had at least a strong component of fears over Trump's claim the China negotiations have gone south!

I started a thread,

Here:

Post in thread '(ABC News) Trump claims China 'totally violated' trade agreement with US'

May 30, 2025

Trump's Morning Schedule for Friday, May 30th, 2025

6 AM: Save America on Truth Social

9:30 AM: Pump

10:00 AM: Pump

10:30 AM: PornHub (search term "Ivanka Deep Fake")

11:00 AM: Pump

11:30 AM: TACO

12:00 PM: Dump dump dump dump dump dump dump

12:30 PM: Big Macs until naptime

• Yakshi

granted that was probably the big driver in the stock prices, but if this was viewed as amazing news we might have seen that effect, but we didn't.

 

[ElChupacabra]

What has happened to the economy over the last 5 years has been unprecedented and no economist understands it. This is a learning experience not a place for knee-jerk reactions.

Some aspects are, but the tariff fiasco is pretty predictable. The only people pitching the "knee-jerk reactions" nonsense are the ones who expect markets to assume the current administration is correct, and when the policy is headed by a person who bankrupted a fair amount of his businesses, it's hard to be confident about the success of said trade policy. What's worse is the "knee-jerk reaction" parrots is not understanding the impact of tariffs on the costs to businesses and their financial projections.

 

[ncguy]

Some aspects are, but the tariff fiasco is pretty predictable. The only people pitching the "knee-jerk reactions" nonsense are the ones who expect markets to assume the current administration is correct, and when the policy is headed by a person who bankrupted a fair amount of his businesses, it's hard to be confident about the success of said trade policy. What's worse is the "knee-jerk reaction" parrots is not understanding the impact of tariffs on the costs to businesses and their financial projections.

one interesting aspect is that if there is a credible, independent expert who thinks trump's approach makes sense for the economy as a whole, I haven't seen them.
Doing something that independent experts think is stupid and expecting good things from it...well, that's unlikely.

 

[Chomsky]

granted that was probably the big driver in the stock prices, but if this was viewed as amazing news we might have seen that effect, but we didn't.

We're at the Fed's 2% inflation target. Any lower implies we need stimulus. And yeah - given Trump's mucking around, that would likely panic the markets. It would mark our long period of growth & prosperity had come to an end.

 

[trixare4kids]

We hit that nine months ago, well before "Trump's time in office."

US inflation fell to 2.4% in September

Figures for headline and core rates marginally surpass expectations

www.ft.com

Yeah, well, it's consistent under Trump's term.