(CNBC) The declining dollar faces more headwinds after posting worst first-half return in 52 years

[Metric Mouse]

You are comparing today to the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression? You really are slipping and no mention of Biden in this post either… You have to try harder with the disingenuous.

Are you really saying the dollar has been much lower than now?

And were things pretty damn terrible for everyone then?

How much lower were they, just for perspective? Are things as bad as they were then?

 

[Xilnik]

You do know that the dollar declined under Obama, yes?

Can you tell us how much it declined, and how low it sank?

Sure, the dollar started at 85.6 under Obama. When he left office, it had declined increased to 100.7, while under Trump in his first term, the dollar started at 100.7 and declined to 90.2 and is declining again in his second term. I can't tell you how low it sank during Obama's time in office because I don't live in your alternate reality. However, it is interesting to note how the last several Republican presidents have hurt the U.S. dollar. Maybe you're confusing your presidents?

How the U.S. Dollar Has Performed, by President (1967-2025)

We show the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index under every president since 1967, from its record highs in 1985 to its all-time lows in 2008.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[Xilnik]

You do know that the dollar declined under Obama, yes?

Can you tell us how much it declined, and how low it sank?

I ran out of time to edit my post, but I wanted to make sure I provide some context to my previous post. You'll note that you were responding to me asking, "Did the dollar decline overall through his terms?" That was the context in which I answered in my previous post.

I expect you'll cherry-pick some data from 2009-2012 and somehow attribute that period to Obama's policies without telling us which policies actually negatively impacted the dollar. The reality is the collapse of banking institutions caused the decline from 2008-2012. In fact, the lowest point of the dollar was 71.33 during Bush's final term in mid-2008 (Dollar Loses Less Under Obama than Under George W. Bush and United States U.S. Dollar Index: Spot: Daily). Now, I will say it's plausible Obama's economic policies were less effective during that time period, but it's unknown whether the policies themselves exacerbated the issue or if they merely failed to offset an already negative situation. Given that his economic policies overall provided stability and growth, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and say it was likely due to trying to push a boulder uphill.

If you want to argue against my conclusion, you are welcome to do so, but you need to provide specific policies that didn't work, why you believe they didn't work, and offer alternative suggestions to address a global economic implosion. Otherwise, you're merely parroting rhetoric that has been refuted by actual data.

 

[Metric Mouse]

Sure, the dollar started at 85.6 under Obama. When he left office, it had declined increased to 100.7, while under Trump in his first term, the dollar started at 100.7 and declined to 90.2 and is declining again in his second term. I can't tell you how low it sank during Obama's time in office

Figures.

Sure, the dollar started at 85.6 under Obama. When he left office, it had declined increased to 100.7, while under Trump in his first term, the dollar started at 100.7 and declined to 90.2 and is declining again in his second term. I can't tell you how low it sank during Obama's time in office because I don't live in your alternate reality.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Well there we go. Now everyone else knows this basic information. Some people remember how bad life was when Obama let the dollar decline to the low 70s.

Thankfully we aren't there yet, right?

 

[Xilnik]

Figures.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Well there we go. Now everyone else knows this basic information. Some people remember how bad life was when Obama let the dollar decline to the low 70s.

Thankfully we aren't there yet, right?

"Obama let the dollar decline to the low 70s" - as I said, I expected you to cherry-pick data out of context and without telling us how Obama's policies directly impacted the dollar index. The dollar index under Obama fell to the upper 70s, not the low 70s. The low 70s was in mid-2008 under President Bush. It sounds like your issue was more with Bush than with Obama.

And let's look at where we are per your link. The dollar index under President Biden reached 109.4 and has dropped to roughly 98 under President Trump. It has dropped more than 10% in roughly six months. That's a pretty substantial drop in such a short period of time.

I'll repeat what I said in my post that provided proper context: If you want to argue against my conclusion, you are welcome to do so, but you need to provide specific policies that didn't work, why you believe they didn't work, and offer alternative suggestions to address a global economic implosion (as occurred from 2008-2012). Otherwise, you're merely parroting rhetoric that has been refuted by actual data.

 

[Metric Mouse]

"Obama let the dollar decline to the low 70s" - as I said, I expected you to cherry-pick data out of context and without telling us how Obama's policies directly impacted the dollar index. The dollar index under Obama fell to the upper 70s,

Wow.

How terrible were things then?

Pretty bad? Or not so bad?

Are you upset that the dollar is much higher than the low point under Obama?

If it falls to the point it was then, would that be a bad sign?

Literally what is youe point? That the dollar goes up and down, and thay it has been far lower than now?

Or is it that this relatively high dollar value is bad, but lower dollar values have been good?

 

[Xilnik]

Wow.

How terrible were things then?

Pretty bad? Or not so bad?

Are you upset that the dollar is much higher than the low point under Obama?

If it falls to the point it was then, would that be a bad sign?

Literally what is youe point? That the dollar goes up and down, and thay it has been far lower than now?

Or is it that this relatively high dollar value is bad, but lower dollar values have been good?

My first point is that you keep avoiding my questions while using cherry-picked data surrounding a worldwide economic implosion. My second point is the time period you referenced occurred due to worldwide leadership making poor decisions over the course of a decade, so the blame was spread out. The current blame rests on one man, his trade wars, and the impact due to international distrust.

 

[Airyaman]

 

[TobyOne]

The long term trend of the dollar is down due to debt and de-dollarization. Buy bitcoin while its relatively cheap.

 

[Metric Mouse]

My first point is that you keep avoiding my questions while using cherry-picked data surrounding a worldwide economic implosion.

In 2015 and 2016, when the dollar was lower?

What was the economic implosion then?

My second point is the time period you referenced occurred due to worldwide leadership making poor decisions over the course of a decade, so the blame was spread out.

And the rising dollar since? Also Trump's fault I bet, in your opinion.

 

[Xilnik]

In 2015 and 2016, when the dollar was lower?

What was the economic implosion then?


And the rising dollar since? Also Trump's fault I bet, in your opinion.

2015-2016 could hardly be considered a "low" dollar. Yes, that period is comparable to today, but it was a drastic improvement to where it started in 2008 (17.6% improvement). From 2017-2020, the dollar saw another drop (10.25% decline). A similar trend occurred between 2021-2024 with the dollar rising from 90.6 to 109.4 (20.75% improvement). We are currently seeing the dollar index hover between 97 and 98, which is lower than when Obama left office for what it's worth, and that marks a 10.7% drop in its value. More concerning is the number of international entities selling US bonds due to a distrust in our currency.

Ignoring your accountability vs ambiguity claims, would you say that Trump has done well in both his terms so far with the dollar index? Do you believe he helped the dollar rise from 100.5 to 90.2 in his first term? Is that really a rising dollar? Is his current trend also a rising dollar, from 109.4 down to 97-98? If the dollar’s strength is a reflection of presidential success, then what do you make of the bond market’s vote of no confidence?

I won't blame Trump. I'll let the numbers do that for me.

 

[rhinefire]

Looks like "the deal maker" is making deals that are very, very bad for our future. Now that he wears a diaper he should resign because whoever heard of a baby being president?

 

[Metric Mouse]

2015-2016 could hardly be considered a "low" dollar.

But it's quite a bit lower than today. So if that isn't low, neither is today.

Weird argument to make, but if you insist.

I won't blame Trump. I'll let the numbers do that for me.

I knew you'd give him credit for the higher dollar.

Didn't take long.

Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index

Graph and download economic data for Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) from 2006-01-02 to 2025-07-18 about trade-weighted, broad, exchange rate, currency, goods, services, rate, indexes, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[Xilnik]

But it's quite a bit lower than today. So if that isn't low, neither is today.

Weird argument to make, but if you insist.


I knew you'd give him credit for the higher dollar.

Didn't take long.

Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index

Graph and download economic data for Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) from 2006-01-02 to 2025-07-18 about trade-weighted, broad, exchange rate, currency, goods, services, rate, indexes, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Are you one of those ChatGPT users who believes 1.9 < 1.11?

 

[Metric Mouse]

Are you one of those ChatGPT users who believes 1.9 < 1.11?

Ummm...

Isn't the dollar higher now than at any point in Obama's term? I posted the chart...

 

[Xilnik]

Ummm...

Isn't the dollar higher now than at any point in Obama's term? I posted the chart...

Yes, the Nominal Broad U.S Dollar Index supports your stance, though you still seem to ignore the substantial drop to 120 from 130. Even at 120, Obama's term peaking at 118 isn't "quite a bit lower, than today." You also failed to specify which dollar index you referred to in your initial posts.

Using the Nominal Broad index is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. A wider view of the chart shows a steady increase by all metrics, likely because the U.S. dollar is the international standard, so scaling economic challenges to the general population seems more accurate within smaller periods of time. Through that lens, Obama increased the index by 13.8%, it dropped 3.6% in Trump's first term, it increased 12% under Biden, and it plummeted 7.5% thus far under Trump.

I'm not sure why you attribute the overall rise to Trump. Revisionism?

 

[Metric Mouse]

Yes, the Nominal Broad U.S Dollar Index supports your stance, though you still seem to ignore the substantial drop to 120 from 130. Even at 120, Obama's term peaking at 118 isn't "quite a bit lower, than today."

So Trump's low point is higher than Obamas highest peak? How bad was the economy at Obamas peak!?

How low was Obamas low point!?

How bad was the economy then?

You also failed to specify which dollar index you referred to in your initial posts.

I've linked it. It makes my point, and backs up all the data you have cited, so I don't see why you haven't linked your "alternative facts."

 

[Xilnik]

So Trump's low point is higher than Obamas highest peak? How bad was the economy at Obamas peak!?

How low was Obamas low point!?

How bad was the economy then?


I've linked it. It makes my point, and backs up all the data you have cited, so I don't see why you haven't linked your "alternative facts."

I provided a link to the dollar index by President and what I used to refute your initial claims. Now that you've clarified which index you used, I'm continuing my refutation under that context.

What "alternative facts" are you referring to? I did math. Let me break it down for you. I took the value at the start of a term as the baseline. The percentage increase or drop is then based on the index value when the President’s term ends compared to when it begins when compared to the baseline value.

Obama (Jan 2009 - Jan 2013):

(90.7980-102.1169)/102.1169 = -11.10%​

Obama (Jan 2013 - Jan 2017):

(116.2241 - 90.7980)/90.7980 = 27.96%​

Obama (Jan 2009 - Jan 2017)

(116.2241 - 102.1169)/102.1169 = 13.8%
​

Trump (Jan 2017 - Jan 2021):

(111.96 - 116.2241)/116.2241 = -3.6%​

Biden (Jan 2021 - Jan 2025):

(130.21 - 111.96)/111.96 = 16.29%​

Trump (Jan 2025 - July 2025):

(120.4 - 130.21)/130.21 = -7.5%

Note: I originally used 116.2241 instead of 111.96 to calculate Biden's index increase. That's why I erroneously said 12%.​

​

As you can see, the dollar's index, any version, has risen under Obama and Biden while falling under Trump.

And if you want to look at the lowest points of each presidency, include the context. Obama's index suffered in large part due to financial institutions building a house of cards for two decades leading up to its imminent, global collapse. Trump suffered in large part due to the pandemic, but his own rhetoric around its severity didn't do him any favors. His current tariffs are even more severe. You have yet to support any claims that Obama's index was in any way self-inflicted while claiming Trump caused the dollar to rise. Neither are supported by your chart or any other metrics I've analyzed.

 

[Metric Mouse]

I provided a link to the dollar index by President and what I used to refute your initial claims.

No you haven't. Please link it.

What "alternative facts" are you referring to? I did math. Let me break it down for you. I took the value at the start of a term as the baseline. The percentage increase or drop is then based on the index value when the President’s term ends compared to when it begins when compared to the baseline value.

Obama (Jan 2009 - Jan 2013):

(90.7980-102.1169)/102.1169 = -11.10%​

Obama (Jan 2013 - Jan 2017):

(116.2241 - 90.7980)/90.7980 = 27.96%​

Obama (Jan 2009 - Jan 2017)

(116.2241 - 102.1169)/102.1169 = 13.8%​

​

Trump (Jan 2017 - Jan 2021):

(111.96 - 116.2241)/116.2241 = -3.6%​

Biden (Jan 2021 - Jan 2025):

(130.21 - 111.96)/111.96 = 16.29%​

Trump (Jan 2025 - July 2025):

(120.4 - 130.21)/130.21 = -7.5%​

​

​

​

Note: I originally used 116.2241 instead of 111.96 to calculate Biden's index increase. That's why I erroneously said 12%. ​

Any link to this data? Any at all?

And if you want to look at the lowest points of each presidency, include the context. Obama's index suffered in large part due to financial institutions building a house of cards for two decades leading up to its imminent, global collapse. Trump suffered in large part due to the pandemic, but his own rhetoric around its severity didn't do him any favors. His current tariffs are even more severe.

But still the dollar is higher now than at any point under Obama. Obama didn't handle the economic conditions well, objectively speaking. The data shows he did poorly; Trump is bad, for sure, but so far things have not been as bad as under Obama, based on the dollar value data.

You have yet to support any claims that Obama's index was in any way self-inflicted while claiming Trump caused the dollar to rise.

I never claimed Trump caused the dollar to rise. You did.

It's higher now than at any point under Obama. That's all I've pointed out.

 

[Xilnik]

No you haven't. Please link it.

Sure, the dollar started at 85.6 under Obama. When he left office, it had declined increased to 100.7, while under Trump in his first term, the dollar started at 100.7 and declined to 90.2 and is declining again in his second term. I can't tell you how low it sank during Obama's time in office because I don't live in your alternate reality. However, it is interesting to note how the last several Republican presidents have hurt the U.S. dollar. Maybe you're confusing your presidents?

How the U.S. Dollar Has Performed, by President (1967-2025)

We show the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index under every president since 1967, from its record highs in 1985 to its all-time lows in 2008.

www.visualcapitalist.com

That link, post #77

Any link to this data? Any at all?

Yeah, yours (how can you not see that?): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS

But still the dollar is higher now than at any point under Obama. Obama didn't handle the economic conditions well, objectively speaking. The data shows he did poorly; Trump is bad, for sure, but so far things have not been as bad as under Obama, based on the dollar value data.

Only if you are unable to follow the data, which you're exemplifying quite well.

I never claimed Trump caused the dollar to rise. You did.

It's higher now than at any point under Obama. That's all I've pointed out.

And the rising dollar since? Also Trump's fault I bet, in your opinion.

You used a strawman to argue Trump caused the dollar to rise. I've never claimed that was the case. I've provided data to show the opposite throughout my posts.

 

[Metric Mouse]

That link, post #77

Yes, that's a visual of the data I've posted.

It shows that the dollar under Trump is currently higher than at any point under Obama.

Which goes to show how shit Obama's economy was, since the dollar was even lower, at it's peak, than under Trump's dumb tariffs.

Yeah, yours (how can you not see that?): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS


Only if you are unable to follow the data, which you're exemplifying quite well.

How is a higher dollar worse than a lower dollar? That's what the data shows.

You used a strawman to argue Trump caused the dollar to rise.

Never.

Why do you think Trump caused the dollar to rise?

I never said this.

I've never claimed that was the case. I've provided data to show the opposite throughout my posts.

Yes, you showed that Trump has a higher dollar than Obama.

Is this a good or bad thing? If Trump had the same dollar value as Obama's highest mark, would that be good or bad?

 

[Xilnik]

Yes, that's a visual of the data I've posted.

It shows that the dollar under Trump is currently higher than at any point under Obama.

Which goes to show how shit Obama's economy was, since the dollar was even lower, at it's peak, than under Trump's dumb tariffs.

How is a higher dollar worse than a lower dollar? That's what the data shows.


Never.

Why do you think Trump caused the dollar to rise?

I never said this.



Yes, you showed that Trump has a higher dollar than Obama.

Is this a good or bad thing? If Trump had the same dollar value as Obama's highest mark, would that be good or bad?

It's bad based on context. Trump's dollar is on the decline due to volatility. Obama's highest mark was the signal of a recovering economy. You clearly do not even understand the data you've looked at or its implications. Heck, you don't even seem to know the difference between the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index and the U.S. Dollar Index.

 

[Metric Mouse]

It's bad based on context. Trump's dollar is on the decline due to volatility. Obama's highest mark was the signal of a recovering economy. You clearly do not even understand the data you've looked at or its implications. Heck, you don't even seem to know the difference between the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index and the U.S. Dollar Index.

You seem to be confused - either Obama had a terrible dollar, since it was so low during his term, or Trump has an ok dollar, since it's higher than at any point under Obama.

Obviously the dollar goes up and down, but are you saying a lower dollar, like under Obama, is bad, and a higher dollar is desirable?

 

[Dassier]

Actually the Chinese Yuan gained substantially against the USD. But it's the Japanese Yen, that really took off!

And ironically, Trump this morning just went after Japan with 25% tariffs. Japan has threatened to dump our debt. This could really snowball against the Dollar, if Japan starts letting our debt go.

The west has fallen, so begins the Japanese Century. Glory to the Tokigawa Shogunate.

 

[Xilnik]

You seem to be confused - either Obama had a terrible dollar, since it was so low during his term, or Trump has an ok dollar, since it's higher than at any point under Obama.

Obviously the dollar goes up and down, but are you saying a lower dollar, like under Obama, is bad, and a higher dollar is desirable?

I'm saying context matters. Obama’s dollar was lower because he inherited a global financial collapse. The dollar’s recovery during his second term was impressive and allowed our economy to start recovering. Trump’s dollar peaked in early 2025 mostly due to riding Biden's trend, but that was followed by a 7.5% drop in just six months due to the tariffs Trump threatened and partially imposed.