China is losing the tariffs war and retreating as fast as it can

[bongsaway]

Where do tariffs go? Go to the goverment. I think we all know that except for the masses of whiners who keep complaining.. Gee.. who might that be?

Are you saying the folks on the right finally found a tax y'all like?

 

[maxparrish]

some empirical data

Despite their denials, China is losing the tariffs war and retreating as fast as it can

Beijing’s biggest worry is not a tariff recession, but the social unrest that will follow.

nypost.com

The Korean press has confirmed that “the United States and China have begun behind-the-scenes contact in relation to the ‘tariff war,’ ” and a high-ranking Chinese delegation was photographed entering the US Treasury Department in the early morning hours of April 24.

• They are in the huge piles of containers that missed the April 9 tariff deadline, sitting in Chinese ports. These are filled with goods that the tariffs have priced out of the US market. Meanwhile, cargo bookings for container voyages between China and the US are down by half.
• They are in deserted factory floors all along the coast of China, where workers are being laid off by the tens of thousands. Textile, toy, electronic, and furniture factories are just a few of the industries being crushed by the tariffs.
• They are in the empty streets and shuttered shops of the surrounding industrial towns and cities, whose one-time customers — the now unemployed factory workers — can’t afford to eat or shop in their favorite noodle stand or convenience stores.

America is by far China’s largest customer, absorbing about one-sixth of China’s exports. If the tariffs stay in place for any length of time, economists estimate that 80% of China’s goods will be priced out of the American market, representing a loss of almost $400 billion.

As many as 10 million Chinese workers might lose their jobs over the next few weeks, says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a number that could easily double in the months that follow as the ripple effects of the slowdown tear through the economy.

Ah yes, China and the US are sitting in the same boat, and as Trump kicks holes in the bottom of the boat, the MAGA cheerleaders gush "See China is losing".

As any real libertarian knows, trade wars only have losers. And if shipping containers are down then it isn't just China that is losing, so are the hundreds of millions of US consumers who buy appliances, furniture, household goods, solar energy equipment, seafood, spices, and capital goods - including those US shippers, truckers, and manufacturers as well their employees (Apple, Tesla, etc.) who depend on those supply chains for raw materials and goods for domestic manufacturing.

Even if it caused 10,000,000 unemployed out of China's population of 1.4 billion it isn't serious. At the peak of the COVID downturn the US had 23,000,000 unemployed, with a population base less than one quarter of China's. In other words, in proportion to population, a serious economic blow to China has to be NINE TIMES GREATER unemployment than a paltry 10,000,000 in China.

And China has not backed down. Both sides have rolled back some of the Tariffs (starting with Trump as I recall) and both sides say they are open to talks. But China made it clear it is open only "if the door is wide open,” and only on equal terms, not under U.S. pressure. (And if anything Trump’s Partial Climbdown in his April 22 statement that tariffs would drop “substantially” China may have interpreted as weakness.).

China learned from Trump in 2018 that the US is unstable and unreliable, and has since prepared with large trade diversification. Xi Jinping’s framing of the conflict as a “protracted struggle” and strangling of rare earths and supply chains underscore a long-term commitment to resist U.S. pressure. China's political system and market size enable it to endure pain far longer than the U.S., where domestic pressures are already mounting.

Just as in 1971 when Nixon tried to reverse the trade deficit with tariffs and negotiation, this is a trade war we cannot win.

 

[Callen]

. And if shipping containers are down then it isn't just China that is losing, so are the hundreds of millions of US consumers who buy appliances, furniture, household goods, solar energy equipment, seafood, spices, and capital goods - including those US shippers, truckers, and manufacturers as well their employees (Apple, Tesla, etc.) who depend on those supply chains for raw materials and goods for domestic manufacturing.

Exactly, the downturn in shipments to the States is every bit as bad for the States as China. In addition to tariffs China is refusing to buy any American pork and soya beans. So they are hitting American imports and exports.

 

[JerryW]

Frankly, there probably are quite a number of things from China we could do without.

like iPhones? (Made in China, assembled in India.)

 

[phoenix2020]

If that is true then it likely means they intend to hang in.

"China unlocked more fiscal stimulus on Wednesday, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States on an economy that Beijing is determined to grow by another 5%-or-so this year.

Exactly. China has been crystal clear that they're not even interested in discussions until Donald walks back his unilateral tariffs. @anatta, @gbg3 and their ilk don't realize that in the past ~decade China's exports to the US have remained flat while its exports to the rest of the world have nearly doubled and its internal consumption has grown a similar amount. China's total exports to the United States amount to at most a fraction of their annual increase in GDP growth. We're in the noise for them, but our MAGA don't know any better, so they'll keep starting threads like these.

 

[anatta]

If that is true then it likely means they intend to hang in.

"China unlocked more fiscal stimulus on Wednesday, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States on an economy that Beijing is determined to grow by another 5%-or-so this year.

Of course. and there is the standard explanation the CCP will make them hang in.

As far as I can figure what it boils down to is keeping the containers piled up on their docks.
While they can export ( and do so) to other countries we still are their single largest market. When their factory shops shutter and workers are laid off then it becomes a danger to Xi . Xi is trying nationalism, hate for "barbarians" as well as stimulus to keep his 5% GDP growth.

That only goes so far as China is an export driven economy..It's big stakes poker. But there is no reason to throw in the cards
Trump got them to the negotiation table last time. Whether our politicians will wail and cry ( they will) isn't going to stop him

A bad US economy will -just like China..I think we'll get some progress -but think in terms of weeks/months like China does

America is by far China’s largest customer, absorbing about one-sixth of China’s exports. If the tariffs stay in place for any length of time, economists estimate that 80% of China’s goods will be priced out of the American market, representing a loss of almost $400 billion.

As many as 10 million Chinese workers might lose their jobs over the next few weeks, says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a number that could easily double in the months that follow as the ripple effects of the slowdown tear through the economy.

 

[Callen]

Of course. and there is the standard explanation the CCP will make them hang in.

As far as I can figure what it boils down to is keeping the containers piled up on their docks.
While they can export ( and do so) to other countries we still are their single largest market. When their factory shops shutter and workers are laid off then it becomes a danger to Xi . Xi is trying nationalism, hate for "barbarians" as well as stimulus to keep his 5% GDP growth.

That only goes so far as China is an export driven economy..It's big stakes poker. But there is no reason to throw in the cards
Trump got them to the negotiation table last time. Whether our politicians will wail and cry ( they will) isn't going to stop him

A bad US economy will -just like China..I think we'll get some progress -but think in terms of weeks/months like China does

You do realize that the US only accounts for 14% of Chinese exports....right?

 

[BirdinHand]

far as I can figure what it boils down to is keeping the containers piled up on their docks

Wait, you think China is sandbagging and withholding orders?

US businesses have paused ordering as a direct result of the tariffs.

Honest question - do you not understand this?

 

[anatta]

You do realize that the US only accounts for 14% of Chinese exports....right?

yes. but it's an export driven economy and is already in a slump.. And their economy has systemic problems behind the facade of 5% growth

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/chinese-economy-a-fragile-giant-behind-the-roaring-dragon

China’s rapid growth over the past two decades was powered by aggressive borrowing across all segments — households, companies, and local governments. But now, the weight of that debt is choking the system.

Households owe between 60–64% of GDP, mainly in mortgages. But home prices have fallen for 20 straight months, and many families are seeing the value of their biggest asset decline.

With loan EMIs eating up over half of many families’ monthly income, there’s little room left for spending. That makes any serious revival in consumption, a key government priority, extremely difficult.

Corporate debt levels are even higher, ranging from 123% to 172% of GDP. A significant share is concentrated in Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), which are opaque entities that funded the infrastructure boom.

These vehicles are deeply in debt and, in many cases, insolvent. But letting them fail risks local banking crises, while bailing them out deepens the national debt burden.

China now finds itself in a debt trap: too leveraged to grow fast, too fragile to clean up the mess.

Meanwhile, years of industrial investment have created massive overcapacity, especially in sectors like electric vehicles, solar panels, steel, and semiconductors.

In many cases, production exceeds not just domestic needs but global demand itself. Factories keep running because shutting them down would result in sunk fixed costs and trigger layoffs and social issues.

But this continued output is worsening a deflationary spiral: prices are falling, profits are vanishing, and demand is shrinking. Producer prices have declined for more than a year, and consumer prices fell 0.7% in February 2025.

The property market, long the engine of Chinese household wealth, is also now a liability. Developers like Evergrande and Country Garden have defaulted, leaving banks exposed to severe bad loans.

Construction has slowed sharply. Land sales, a key source of local government revenue, have dried up, compounding fiscal strain.

 

[anatta]

Wait, you think China is sandbagging and withholding orders?

not at all what I said. I said the goal is to keep the containers "piling up".

US businesses have paused ordering as a direct result of the tariffs.

indeed. most are stocked up for a few months. some of the smaller businesses are not -not having the warehouse capacity

 

[Bodi]

Lol.

US consumers will have to pay more and face shortages and MAGA thinks that's winning.

Lol.

It has been weeks... and this is a long term plan.

g

 

[BirdinHand]

not at all what I said. I said the goal is to keep the containers "piling up".

No, Chinese businesses will slow commensurate with what percentage of their sales are to the US.

The difference is, they aren’t in a trade war with the entire world, we are.

 

[Peter]

like iPhones? (Made in China, assembled in India.)

Pretty much every high end chip is made in Taiwan by TSMC which is owned by the government of Taiwan so don't expect them to build the best chip plants in the US or anywhere other than Taiwan.

The new US chip plants are only going to be allowed to make chips at best 3 generations old as Taiwan keeps the best for themselves.
The same goes for Europe if we try and make chips.

 

[phoenix2020]

Of course. and there is the standard explanation the CCP will make them hang in.

As far as I can figure what it boils down to is keeping the containers piled up on their docks.
While they can export ( and do so) to other countries we still are their single largest market. When their factory shops shutter and workers are laid off then it becomes a danger to Xi . Xi is trying nationalism, hate for "barbarians" as well as stimulus to keep his 5% GDP growth.

That only goes so far as China is an export driven economy..It's big stakes poker. But there is no reason to throw in the cards
Trump got them to the negotiation table last time. Whether our politicians will wail and cry ( they will) isn't going to stop him

A bad US economy will -just like China..I think we'll get some progress -but think in terms of weeks/months like China does

@Callen, here is a good example of what I was mentioning earlier. Observe how the MAGA claims that China is an "export driven economy" because the mainstream conservative media told him so, so he blindly regurgitated it with no added thought or contemplation. Did he bother to notice how China's domestic consumption (70% of their economic output in the early 2000s, closer to 85% today) has increased? Nope. Did he bother to confirm that the services industry fulfills more than 50% of China's total GDP? Of course not. He heard some random talking point on Tucker or AM Radio or Fox News or Truth Social and simply stated it as fact here.

This is why China will win this trade war and Donald and @anatta will lose it and lose it badly. They don't even have a ground truth to operate from, just a bunch of made up facts designed to make them both feel better about themselves. The world knows this, China knows this, which is why they'll let @anatta and Donald continue digging.

 

[phoenix2020]

No, Chinese businesses will slow commensurate with what percentage of their sales are to the US.

The difference is, they aren’t in a trade war with the entire world, we are.

Chinese exports to the United States are some 2-3% of their total economic output.

It's not nothing, but in the long term - and China thinks long-term - it's a minor blip at best.

 

[BirdinHand]

@Callen, here is a good example of what I was mentioning earlier. Observe how the MAGA claims that China is an "export driven economy" because the mainstream conservative media told him so, so he blindly regurgitated it with no added thought or contemplation. Did he bother to notice how China's domestic consumption (70% of their economic output in the early 2000s, closer to 85% today) has increased? Nope. Did he bother to confirm that the services industry fulfills more than 50% of China's total GDP? Of course not. He heard some random talking point on Tucker or AM Radio or Fox News or Truth Social and simply stated it as fact here.

This is why China will win this trade war and Donald and @anatta will lose it and lose it badly. They don't even have a ground truth to operate from, just a bunch of made up facts designed to make them both feel better about themselves. The world knows this, China knows this, which is why they'll let @anatta and Donald continue digging.

Many MAGAs seem to be completely ignorant of what China is like.

 

[BirdinHand]

Chinese exports to the United States are some 2-3% of their total economic output.

It's not nothing, but in the long term - and China thinks long-term - it's a minor blip at best.

What that number is will vary by business - that’s the overall country number.

Some individual businesses and entities will be more impacted than others.

 

[phoenix2020]

Many MAGAs seem to be completely ignorant of what China is like.

Few have ever left the United States. I imagine a great many have lived their entire lives in basically the same small area.

 

[Jredbaron96]

@Callen, here is a good example of what I was mentioning earlier. Observe how the MAGA claims that China is an "export driven economy" because the mainstream conservative media told him so, so he blindly regurgitated it with no added thought or contemplation. Did he bother to notice how China's domestic consumption (70% of their economic output in the early 2000s, closer to 85% today) has increased? Nope. Did he bother to confirm that the services industry fulfills more than 50% of China's total GDP? Of course not. He heard some random talking point on Tucker or AM Radio or Fox News or Truth Social and simply stated it as fact here.

This is why China will win this trade war and Donald and @anatta will lose it and lose it badly. They don't even have a ground truth to operate from, just a bunch of made up facts designed to make them both feel better about themselves. The world knows this, China knows this, which is why they'll let @anatta and Donald continue digging.

Every MAGA account operates under the auspice that it's still 2000 and China's economy is dependent on exporting cheap plastic toys and T-shirts.

 

[anatta]

No, Chinese businesses will slow commensurate with what percentage of their sales are to the US.

there is no measurable causation. there are so many factors involved. Anyone that tells you how it's going to go is guessing

The difference is, they aren’t in a trade war with the entire world, we are.

Doesn't make any difference. each country ( or the EU) has it's own tariff. each set of trade has it's own particulars

 

[anatta]

very good article on Chinese deflation

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/chinese-economy-a-fragile-giant-behind-the-roaring-dragon

Beijing has responded with familiar tools — rate cuts, liquidity injections, and infrastructure stimulus — but none are working as they once did.

The People’s Bank of China has eased its policy, cutting interest rates and reserve requirements. However, with households and firms already overleveraged, monetary policy has lost traction.

Banks are cautious. Borrowers are hesitant. Cheaper credit is no longer translating into economic momentum.

Fear of runaway inflation has kept fiscal stimulus largely focused on supply-side spending and infrastructure and industrial upgrades. Direct support to households, which could possibly revive demand — albeit at the cost of inflation — remains minimal.

Local governments are effectively immobilized. Saddled with debt and falling land revenues, they are scaling back services and lack the capacity to support recovery. Their paralysis has become a major drag on national policy execution.

Across the economy, developers are insolvent, consumers are cautious, and private investment is subdued. Every channel that might transmit stimulus — banking, local government, household consumption — is blocked or compromised.

The leadership now faces a structural dilemma: inflate the debt bubble further to preserve stability or allow defaults and risk contagion. So far, it has chosen a third path — incremental containment, which avoids crisis but also defers resolution.

The problem is not that policy tools are gone. It is that they no longer work under current conditions. Interest rate cuts do not spark borrowing. Infrastructure spending does not lift consumption.

 

[ColdHardTruth]

The were the ONLY valid source about Hunter's laptop.

Nope.

Hunter's laptop is a non-story. It was manufactured to attack the Bidens. Nothing but a petty vengeance tactic by dumpletits.

 

[Uncensored2008]

some empirical data

Despite their denials, China is losing the tariffs war and retreating as fast as it can

Beijing’s biggest worry is not a tariff recession, but the social unrest that will follow.

nypost.com

The Korean press has confirmed that “the United States and China have begun behind-the-scenes contact in relation to the ‘tariff war,’ ” and a high-ranking Chinese delegation was photographed entering the US Treasury Department in the early morning hours of April 24.

• They are in the huge piles of containers that missed the April 9 tariff deadline, sitting in Chinese ports. These are filled with goods that the tariffs have priced out of the US market. Meanwhile, cargo bookings for container voyages between China and the US are down by half.
• They are in deserted factory floors all along the coast of China, where workers are being laid off by the tens of thousands. Textile, toy, electronic, and furniture factories are just a few of the industries being crushed by the tariffs.
• They are in the empty streets and shuttered shops of the surrounding industrial towns and cities, whose one-time customers — the now unemployed factory workers — can’t afford to eat or shop in their favorite noodle stand or convenience stores.

America is by far China’s largest customer, absorbing about one-sixth of China’s exports. If the tariffs stay in place for any length of time, economists estimate that 80% of China’s goods will be priced out of the American market, representing a loss of almost $400 billion.

As many as 10 million Chinese workers might lose their jobs over the next few weeks, says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a number that could easily double in the months that follow as the ripple effects of the slowdown tear through the economy.

The wailing and gnashing of teeth you hear are the board leftists...

 

[ColdHardTruth]

Ah yes, China and the US are sitting in the same boat, and as Trump kicks holes in the bottom of the boat, the MAGA cheerleaders gush "See China is losing".

As any real libertarian knows, trade wars only have losers. And if shipping containers are down then it isn't just China that is losing, so are the hundreds of millions of US consumers who buy appliances, furniture, household goods, solar energy equipment, seafood, spices, and capital goods - including those US shippers, truckers, and manufacturers as well their employees (Apple, Tesla, etc.) who depend on those supply chains for raw materials and goods for domestic manufacturing.

Even if it caused 10,000,000 unemployed out of China's population of 1.4 billion it isn't serious. At the peak of the COVID downturn the US had 23,000,000 unemployed, with a population base less than one quarter of China's. In other words, in proportion to population, a serious economic blow to China has to be NINE TIMES GREATER unemployment than a paltry 10,000,000 in China.

And China has not backed down. Both sides have rolled back some of the Tariffs (starting with Trump as I recall) and both sides say they are open to talks. But China made it clear it is open only "if the door is wide open,” and only on equal terms, not under U.S. pressure. (And if anything Trump’s Partial Climbdown in his April 22 statement that tariffs would drop “substantially” China may have interpreted as weakness.).

China learned from Trump in 2018 that the US is unstable and unreliable, and has since prepared with large trade diversification. Xi Jinping’s framing of the conflict as a “protracted struggle” and strangling of rare earths and supply chains underscore a long-term commitment to resist U.S. pressure. China's political system and market size enable it to endure pain far longer than the U.S., where domestic pressures are already mounting.

Just as in 1971 when Nixon tried to reverse the trade deficit with tariffs and negotiation, this is a trade war we cannot win.

The Post is not a valid source.

Can you find the article posted by another source?

 

[Uncensored2008]

lol.

Russian propagandist uses NYP Opinion Piece.

It's too perfect.

ROFL

What's sad is that really is the best you can do. Your dream and desire of America failing comes crashing down, yet again...