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Chicago’s record for coldest temperature ever could fall

I love when proof that the earth was much warmer when humans weren't making a mess of things shows up right in the link provided.. ;)




Tim-

And?

You think somehow that this means humans aren’t causing this temp spike?

Got any... evidence for this?
 
With the various material I have read over the years, they have not maintained consistency. I don't remember how long ago it was, but I showed the math one time for the effect of reducing the "atmospheric window." The graph shows it to be about 40 W/m^2. Now what I showed in post 143 gives an approximate TCS to the CO2, yours shows an approximate ECS, but still not quite right as my bait wasn't. If I remember correctly, the actual value is about 1.2 degrees using 5.35 for the log formula constant and that energy budget graph. For the ECS, you can't simply leave the system out of balance. You have to balance the rest of the system, and in balancing my change that resulted in the initial 0.54 degrees, it would have increased to about a 1.2 degree difference.

If you consistently keep up with the literature (or textbooks or major reports) they explain any changes in definitions and why. Climate scientists would be well aware of this. If you don’t keep up with the literature or reports or you just get most of your information from blogs, that’s on you, not climate scientists.



No, your post #143 showed nothing that made any sense. You used the wrong numbers from the surface (not the TOA), with feedbacks included. It was also definitely nothing to do with the TCS.

My post #166 showed the direct blackbody no-feedback response correctly using energy values from the TOA for the formula ΔF = 5.35 ln (C/C0) which calculates a theoretical 3.71 W/m2 increase at the TOA with a corresponding direct increase of ~1.1C at the surface – with NO feedbacks included. It was also definitely not the ECS.

Transient Climate Sensitivity (TCS) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) are NOT the blackbody no-feedback response. The TCS and the ECS includes feedbacks and changes in other processes, the theoretical blackbody no-feedback response does not. Using the blackbody no-feedback ΔF = 5.35 ln (C/C0) formula for them makes no sense.

As I already posted, the blackbody no-feedback response (or Planck response) is a theoretical concept. It’s used to estimate the initial direct response in surface temperature from a change in the radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for a given change in one process (eg doubling CO2 or increasing solar energy) with everything else held constant. It's not supposed to be a real world value as it doesn’t include changes in other processes or feedbacks.

Let’s clarify some terms:

From: https://www.environment.gov.au/syst...s/factsheetclimatesensitivitycsiro-bureau.pdf

Climate sensitivity is a useful standard measure, telling us how much the Earth’s surface temperature would increase if pre-industrial CO2 concentrations were doubled. Two types of climate sensitivity are used: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR).

TCR considers the changes that would occur if CO2 levels increase by 1% (compounded) per year until they double. The TCR is then simply the global temperature increase that has occurred at the point in time that atmospheric CO2 concentrations reach double pre-industrial levels.

The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is the amount of warming achieved when the entire climate system reaches ‘equilibrium’ or the stable temperature response to a doubling of CO2. If atmospheric CO2 were held at double pre-industrial concentrations, the planet would still continue to warm.

These are ‘standard’ measures of climate sensitivity, and have been used in climate change science for over 25 years. They are relevant to real world changes because, with continued high emissions, we are likely to exceed a doubling of CO2, compared with pre-industrial times, later this century. They are simplified measures, and do not themselves provide projections of climate change. Such projections depend on the details of the timing and extent of future emissions, including changes in gases other than CO2. TCR and ECS are closely related measures of climate sensitivity, but TCR is always smaller than ECS, largely because the Earth’s oceans have not had as long to respond to the doubling.​

By the way, the value of ~1.2C (rather than ~1.1C) for a theoretical blackbody no-feedback response (Planck response) to a doubling of CO2 comes from GCM models because they include variations for location and seasons, unlike the simplified 1D model used by Myhre et al (1998).

Well...

No admission that you've been wrong for years about the blackbody no-feedback response? You demonstrated that you didn't understand what it was and were plugging in the wrong numbers from the surface and getting a meaningless wrong answer.
 
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LOL.

Guess it’s time to tack over to the ‘it’s China’s fault’ argument for a while...

His efforts to weasel out of admitting that he got it wrong and admitting that he hadn't really understood the purpose of the theoretical blackbody no-feedback response calculation or the correct values to use, showed me he really knew far less about climate sensitivity than I thought he did.

I wonder how long he's been saying the scientists were "wrong" about the direct blackbody no-feedback response being ~1.1C to 1.2C - all because he was plugging in the wrong numbers and getting a meaningless stupid answer - which he preferred, because it suited his 'anything but CO2' bias.

If any rational non-scientist came up with a different answer to a well understood calculation in all the literature (and reports and textbooks), they would assume they must be getting something wrong and try to learn why, not claim that all the scientists got it wrong. But not the self-deluded climate truther "experts". It's really weird behavior.
 
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And?

You think somehow that this means humans aren’t causing this temp spike?

Got any... evidence for this?

Well, first off, what's to say that this "temp spike" isn't a good thing? In fact, if it wasn't for all these temperature fluctuations, it might very be that humans wouldn't even be here right now. And, evidence is easy when one localizes his logic, and goes something like this. In the past we KNOW, not guess, we actually know that temperatures were much, much higher, and of course, much, much lower in the past when the human footprint was barely discernable, if at all. What caused that, and was it bad? Our little "temp spike" is minor in comparison. So, shall we all just run and hide, is the world going to end? I suspect, and with a great deal of certainty, expect that the answer is a resounding big fat NO!



Tim-
 
Well...

No admission that you've been wrong for years about the blackbody no-feedback response? You demonstrated that you didn't understand what it was and were plugging in the wrong numbers from the surface and getting a meaningless wrong answer.

I understood exactly what I was doing, in fact I showed the proper calculations to get the 1.2 C in the past. I wanted to see if someone could show the simplicity of that approach being wrong. I was pleasantly surprised, though your was still as inaccurate in method as mine. It just gave closer results to reality.
 
His efforts to weasel out of admitting that he got it wrong and admitting that he hadn't really understood the purpose of the theoretical blackbody no-feedback response calculation or the correct values to use, showed me he really knew far less about climate sensitivity than I thought he did.

I wonder how long he's been saying the scientists were "wrong" about the direct blackbody no-feedback response being ~1.1C to 1.2C - all because he was plugging in the wrong numbers and getting a meaningless stupid answer - which he preferred, because it suited his 'anything but CO2' bias.

If any rational non-scientist came up with a different answer to a well understood calculation in all the literature (and reports and textbooks), they would assume they must be getting something wrong and try to learn why, not claim that all the scientists got it wrong. But not the self-deluded climate truther "experts". It's really weird behavior.

Your ignorant assumptions are noted.
 
I understood exactly what I was doing, in fact I showed the proper calculations to get the 1.2 C in the past. I wanted to see if someone could show the simplicity of that approach being wrong. I was pleasantly surprised, though your was still as inaccurate in method as mine. It just gave closer results to reality.

No you were completely wrong and didn't even seem to understand what you were doing. I also read some old post of yours and you'd made the same mistakes. What's your explanation for using surface energy numbers and not the correct TOA numbers?

I got the same results as that found in the literature, Yours was way off because you didn't know what you were doing.
 
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Your ignorant assumptions are noted.

Words have meaning. I think you meant to write my "correct answers are noted". But you're still weasling away from admitting the fact that you were demonstrably wrong and showed you didn't even understand why you were putting in the surface energy values instead of the TOA values and why you got such a 'not even wrong' answer. Looking at some of your old posts it seems youv'e been doing it incorrectly for years. No wonder you have such nonsense ideas about climate sensitivity.

Be a man and admit when you were wrong.
 
His efforts to weasel out of admitting that he got it wrong and admitting that he hadn't really understood the purpose of the theoretical blackbody no-feedback response calculation or the correct values to use, showed me he really knew far less about climate sensitivity than I thought he did.

I wonder how long he's been saying the scientists were "wrong" about the direct blackbody no-feedback response being ~1.1C to 1.2C - all because he was plugging in the wrong numbers and getting a meaningless stupid answer - which he preferred, because it suited his 'anything but CO2' bias.

If any rational non-scientist came up with a different answer to a well understood calculation in all the literature (and reports and textbooks), they would assume they must be getting something wrong and try to learn why, not claim that all the scientists got it wrong. But not the self-deluded climate truther "experts". It's really weird behavior.

You are denying the Stefan-Boltzmann law. It's not possible to reduce the radiance of Earth and increase it's temperature at the same time.
 
You are denying the Stefan-Boltzmann law. It's not possible to reduce the radiance of Earth and increase it's temperature at the same time.
Please show us your calculations using the SB law, the incoming energy from the sun and outgoing terrestrial energy at the TOA (which is measured by satellites) and the approximate average surface temperature with and without a natural 'greenhouse' effect. Thanks.
 
You are denying the Stefan-Boltzmann law. It's not possible to reduce the radiance of Earth and increase it's temperature at the same time.
Please show us your calculations using the SB law, the incoming energy from the sun and outgoing terrestrial energy at the TOA (which is measured by satellites) and the approximate average surface temperature with and without a natural 'greenhouse' effect. Thanks.

So no calculations, just the usual prayers from you then?

"The greenhouse effect doesn't exist....Ommm....
You are denying science...Ommm...
Inversion fallacy...Ommm...
Science is just a set of falsifiable theories...Ommm...
Holy Links Begone!...Ommm...
Science doesn't use supporting evidence...Ommm...
You deny the 1st law of thermodynamics...Ommm...
You deny the 2nd law of thermodynamics...Ommm...
You deny the Stefan-Boltzmann law... Ommm...
Buzzword fallacy...Ommm..."
 
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