This OP is not really politically oriented but if what I see occurs, it will have some political implications.
As most of you know, I am a stock chart analyst and I consider myself a very good one. The action and the news this week (such as the inflation report that came in lower than expected) did solidify what the Fed is likely to start doing, which is lowering interest rates in September. This action is certainly going to have some political implications but it is not clear at all what those implications will mean. For example, lowering interest rates is going to be a positive for Biden but the fact that the reason for the lowering of interest rates is likely to be because the economy is starting to slow down will be a negative to Biden. Which of the two will the voters key on, is something that I cannot answer at this time.
Having said that, this OP is more about giving everyone that is involved in the stock market a clue as to what to expect.
The way the charts suggest is going to be seen is that the 15-year uptrend will end this year and likely to start in September, which is by seasonal nature the strongest down month of the year. I believe that a 1-3 year downtrend will start (no matter who gets chosen for president but who is chosen is likely to make it less worse or worse than).
As such, if you are a bull and holding stocks, I think you should start considering taking profits over the next 8 weeks. As it is, you probably should start considering taking profits this week or next.
Evidently I have no crystal ball, meaning that everyone should take what I say with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, there are a lot of things that are "norms" of the market that are likely to be in play and though these norms have been excelled over the past few years, it seems that now that the inflation and interest rate scenario is starting to clear up, I think the market will go back to the norm.
Let me explain 1) out of the norm is a 15-year uptrend with most corrections being minimal 2) out of the norm are PE ratios in Tech stocks that are double what the norm is 3) out of the norm are PE ratios in small cap stocks that are way below the norm 4) out of the norm are fundamentals and charts that have not been performing as the norm has been throughout history 5) out of the norm is the manipulation off of emotions (not facts) that has been seen repeatedly in the market.
All of the above seem to be ending and the norm starting once again.
Again, I could be wrong but things are getting clearer now than they have been for all year. In fact, in my 47 years of trading the market, I had never experienced what has happened this year. It has been confusing, to say the least.
As far as how this will affect the election in November, fire away with your scenarios (based on this outlook for the market heading lower, the economy heading lower, inflation coming down, and interest rates heading lower)
