Breaking down the Texas Primaries (1 Viewer)

The threads that I already have updated for the candiidate filing deadlines will now contain the primaries. Note that there are a few states, such as Texas, that did not get the primary treatment. As such, these states will be given both the primary AND the candidate filing deadline treatment in one thread. Finally, note that there are some districts that are listed as unopposed on 270toWin, but do actually have an Independent candidate. For the purposes of both my projections that I post and for these threads, these will not be considered unopposed, but it would take a massive screw-up, something titantic behind any of the screw-ups ever made before, for the incumbent to lose these elections. We're talking something more negatively controversial than anything Donald Trump (R) has ever done.

House:
District 1:
This open district saw a Democratic primary runoff and an outright Republican win. The Republican in the general election is Smith County Court judge Nathaniel Moran (R). He defeated Marine Corps veteran Aditya Atholi (R), business owner Joe McDaniel (R), and EMT John Porro (R). Meanwhile, the two Democrats who advanced to the runoff were Dunn Group owner Victor Dunn (D) and CEO of OR Jrmar Jefferson (D). They defeated teacher Gavin Dass (D) and businessman Stephen Kocen (D). Jrmar Jefferson (D) advanced out of the primary and takes on Nathaniel Moran (R) in the general election.

District 2:
Marketing Director Robin Fulford (D) won the Democratic primary unopposed. Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Daniel Crenshaw (R) fended off a challenge from business owner Jameson Ellis (R), Kampala, Uganda native Martin Etwop (R), and Marine Corps veteran Milam Langella (R). Fulford (D) and Crenshaw (R) will face off in the general election. As of the time of this writing, I believe that Crenshaw has an advantage of +1. This means to add +1 to his polling, so a +10 is actually a +11, etc.

Diistrict 3:
District 3 has our first defeated incumbent of the election. Republican incumbent Van Taylor (R) and Collin County Court judge Keith Self (R) advanced to the runoff on May 24th, defeating vice president of a mergers and acquisitions bank Suzanne Cassimatis Harp (R), flight attended and local law enforcement employee Jeremy Ivanovskis (R), and deputy executive of Region 10 Education Service Rickey Williams (R). Once Van Taylor went to a runoff, he withdrew from the race, allowing Keith Self (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, principal architect with Fidelity Investments Sandeep Srivastava (D) defeated Frito Lay salesman Doc Shelby (D) in the Democratic primary. Self (R) and Srivastava (D) advance to the general election, where they will face Army veteran Chriistopher Clayor (L).

District 4:
Educator Iro Omere (D) wins the Democratic primary unopposed. Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Pat Fallon (R) fended off a challenge from Texas A &M University system chancellor John Harper (R) and local evening news anchor Dan Thomas (R) to advance to the general election. Omere (D) and Fallon (R) will take on rancher John Simmons (L) in the general election. As of the time of this writing, I believe tha Pat Fallon (R) has a handicap of -3, meaning simply subtract 3 from whatever polls are available. So if he's a +10, then I argue he's actually a +7, etc.

District 5:
Republican incumbent Lance Gooden (R) wins his party's primary unopposed. Meanwhile, commnity health worker for Baylor Scott & White Health Tartisha Hill (D) beat assistant director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Kathleen Bailey (D). Hill (D) and Gooden (R) will face salesamn Kevin Hale (L) in the general election.

District 6:
Republican incubment Jake Ellzey (R) beats back a challenge from regional maintenance supervisor James Buford (R) and unknown Bill Payne (R) to secure the Republican nomination. No Democrats ran for office. Ellzey (R) will face international fliight attendant Takona Scaufalire (I) in the general election.

District 7:
Incumbent Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) wins her party's primary unopposed. Meanwhile, accountant for Shell Pipe Line Corporation Johnny Teague (R) and director of communiity relations for ABGi USA Tim Stroud (R) advanced to the runoff, beating CEO of CORNFIRM LLC Rudy Atencio (R), president of Blum's Furniture Tina Blum Cohen (R), Marine Corps Veteran Benson Gitau (R), CEO of US Petrochemicals Laique Rehman (R), and Dickey's Barbecue Pit franchisee Lance Stewart (R). In the runoff, Teague (R) beat Stroud (R). Fletcher (D) will take on Teague (R) in the general election primary.

District 8:
This open seat saw real estate sales agent with Home Plus Realty Group Laura Jones (D) advance from the Democratic primary unopposed. Meanwhile, former Navy SEAL Morgan Luttrell (R) advanced to the Republican primary from a crowded 11-candidate field. Notable candidates included gastronenterologist Betsy Bates (R), founder of the Texas Youth Summit Christian Collins (R), Navy veteran Jonathan Hullihan (R), Navy veteran Dan McKaughan (R), oil and gas consultant Jonathan Mitchell (R), Air Force veteran Chuck Montgomery (R), Marine Corps veteran Mike Phillips (R), and small business owner Jessica Wellington (R). Luttrell (R) and Jones (D) will face off against business owner Roy Eriksen L) in the general election.

District 9:
This district has been in the general election phase since the candidate filing deadline. Incumbent Democrat Al Green (D) takes on unknown Jimmy Leon (R) and unknown Randall Addison (I).

District 10:
This district has been in the general election phase since the candidate filing deadline. Republican incumbent Michael McCaul (R) advances from the Republican primary to the general election phase unopposed. Meanwhile, unknown Linda Nuno (D) advances from the Democratic primary unopposed. McCaul and Nuno will take on Navy veteran Bill Kelsey (L) in the general election.

District 11:
The election is over before it began in this district. Republican incumbent August Pfluger (R) became unopposed at the candidate filing deadline.

District 12:
Republican incumbent Kay Granger (R) fended off challenges from public school educator Ryan Catala (R) and CEO and founder of the Hour Glass Initiative Alysia Rieg (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, homeless outreach specialist Trey Hunt (D) wins the Democratic primary unopposed.

District 13:
This district has been in the general election phase since the candidate filing deadline. Republican incumbent Ronny L. Jackson (R) takes on attorney Kathleen Brown (D) in the general election.

District 14:
Republican incumbent Randy Weber (R) beat 2018 candidate for the same seat Keith Casey (R) and trader and investor Ruben Landlon Dante (R) in his party's primary to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, the cofounder of Central Texas Alliied Health Institute Mikal Williams (D) advanced from the Democratic primary after beating minister of Strong Tower Ministries Eugene Howerd (D). Weber (R) and Casey (D) square off against 2020 candiidate for District 36 Hal Ridley (I) in the general election.

District 15:
In thiis open seat, the Republican Party had a niine-candidate primary, while the Democrats had a six-candidate primary. 2020 candidate for the same seat Monica De La Cruz (R) advanced from the Republican primary. Notable candidates she defeated included judge Sara Canady (R), high school assistant principal Vangela Churchill (R), founder of M. Garza Enterprises and Everett Holdings, Inc. Mauro Garza (R), and president of Dream Big Facility LLC Ryan Krause (R). In the Democratic primary, Army veteran Ruben Ramirez (D) and small business owner Michelle Vallejo (D) advanced to a runoff primary. Notable candidates that Ramirez (D) and Vallejo (D) defeated include congressional aide to Ruben Hinojosa (D), Eliza Alvarado (D), fomer 2016 Green Party candidate for the same seat Vanessa Tijerina (D), and construction company owner John Villarreal Rigney (D). At the runoff, Michlle Vallejo (D) defeated Ruben Ramirez (D). De La Cruz (R) and Vallejo (D) will square off against I2020 candidate for the same seat Ross Leone (L) in the general election.

District 16:
Incumbent Democrat Veronica Escobar (D) beat federal border patrol agent for Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Deliris Montanez Berrios (D) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, realtor for Century 21 Irene Armendariz-Jackson (R) won the Republican primary unopposed. Escobar (D) and Armendariz-Jackson (R) will face off against Army veteran Samuel Williams Jr. (I) in the general election.

District 17:
Incumbent Republican and political journeyman Pete Sessions (R) staved off a challenge from president of Beautiiful Gate Translations Paulette Carson (R), Army and Marine Corps veteran Jason Nelson (R), and Blackdragon cofounder Robert Rosenberger (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, supermarket employee Mary Jo Woods (D) wins the Demoocratic primary unopposed. Woods and Sessions will take on unknown Jake Armstrong (I) in the general election. I believe that Pete Sessions (R) has a -1 handicap right now, meaning subtract 1 from the most recent poll, so a +10 is actually a +9, etc.

District 18:
This seat has been in the general election phase siince the candidate filing deadline. Democratic incumbent Sheila Jackson Lee (D) wiins her primary unopposed. Meanwhile, news anchorwoman Carmen Maria Montiel (R) wins the Republican primary unopposed. Lee and Montiel will face off against 2018 candidate for the 29th district Phil Kurtz (L) and 2018 candidate for the same district Vince Duncan (I).

Diistrict 19:
This seat has been in the general election phase since the candidate filing deadline. Republican iincumbent Jodey Arrington wins his party's primary unopposed. He will take on unknown Jay Ford (I) and unknown Nathan Lewis (I) in the general election. No Democrats are running.

District 20:
This seat has been in the general election phase since the candidate filing deadline. Democratic incumbent Joaquin Castro (D) wins his party's primary unopposed. Meanwhile, CEO of Warm Springs and Kindred Healthcare Kyle Sinclair (R) advanced from the Republican primary unopposed. Castro (D) and Sinclair (R) will square off against 2018 Bexar County Commisisoners Court Candidate Ismael Garcia (I) and child protective services investigator and Army veteran Adam Jonasz (I).

District 21:
Republican incumbent Chip Roy (R) beat back a challenge from Air Force veteran Michael French (R), political activist Robert Lowry (R), and orientation and mobility specialist Dana Zavorka (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, Army veteran Ricardo Viillarreal (D) and workforce and budget analyist wiith the Texas Health and Human Services Commission Claudia Zapata (D) beat CEO and president of Diviine Equality Nonprofit David Anderson (D) associate producer with Summer Stock Austin Coy Branscum (D), Texas State Uniiversitye graduate Cherif Gacis (D), and 2018 candidate for the 17th District Scott Sturm (D) to advance to a runoff. Claudia Zapata (D) beat Ricardo Villarreal (D) in the runoff. Chip Roy (R) will face off against Claudia Zapata (D) in the general election. I believe that Chip Roy (R) has a handicap of -4 so far.

District 22:
Republican incumbent Troy Nehls (R) fended off a challenge from tax manager Gregory Thorne (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, unknown Jamie Jordan (D) advanced from the Democratic primary unopposed. Troy Nehls (R) and Jamie Jordan (D) will square off against Army veteran Joseph LeBlanc (L) and Democratiic write-in and marketing consultant Jim Squires (D).

District 23:
Republican incumbent Tony Gonzalez (R) fended off a challenge from dentist Alma Arredondo-Lynch (R) and 2018 candidate for the 16th District Alia Garcia-Ureste (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, Marine veteran John Lira (D) beat unknown Priscilla Golden (D) to adavnce from the Democratic primary. Tony Gonzalez (R) and John Lira (D) will face off against unknown James Hart (I) and unknown Francisco Lopez (I) in the general election.

District 24:
Republican incumbent Beth Van Duyne (R) fends off a challenge from patent litigation consultant Nate Weymouth (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, Marine Corps Veteran Derrik Gay (D) and certiified public accountant Jan McDowell (D) advanced to a runoff, beating mediator Kathy Fragnoli (D). In the runoff, Jan McDowell (D) defeated Derrik Gay (D) to advance to the general election. Beth Van Duyne (R) and Jan McDowell advanced to the general election. I believe Van Duyne (R) has a handicap of -1 thus far.

District 25:
This district has been in the general election phase since the candidate filing deadline. Republican incumbent Roger Williiams (R) wins the Republican primary unopposed. Williams will face unknown Tristan Miller (U*) and unknown Scott Collier (I). No Democrats filed to run in District 25.



* = Unaffiliated

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Addendum:
District 26:
Republican incumbent Michael C. Burgess (R) staved off a challenge by entrepreneur Brian Brazel (R), police officer Vincent Gallo (R), founder of Race 2 the Raven Raven Harrison (R), and property inspector Isaac Smith (R). Burgess will face project manager Mike Kolls (L) and unknown William Cunningham (I).

District 27:
Republican incumbent Michael Cloud (R) defeated automotive dealer consultant specialist Andrew Alvarez (R), sheriff of Jackson County A.J. Louderback (R), business owner Chris Mapp (R), and the founder of Eric Mireles LLC, Eric Mireles (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, president of the San Antonio Association of Hispanic Journalists Maclovio Perez Jr. (D) beat physician Victor Melgoza (D) and Tristan Financial Consulting LLC owner Anthony Tristan (D) to advance to the general election. I believe Michael Cloud (R) has a handicap of -1 at this point in time.

District 28:
There were two runoffs in this district. First, incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar (D) and immigrant rights advocate Jessica Cisneros (D) beat community organizer Tannya Benavides (D) to advance to the runoff. On the Republican side, the former deputy state director for Senator Ted Cruz (R), Cassy Garcia (R) and sales representative Sandra Whitten (R) beat business owner Ed Cabrera (R), business owner Steven Fowler (R), First There foundation founder Eric Hohman (R), entrepreneur Roland Rodriguez (R), and police officer Willie Vasquez Ng (R) to advance to the runoff. In the Democratic runoff, incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) beat Jessica Cisneros (D). In the Republican runoff, Cassy Garcia (R) beat Sandra Whitten (R). Cassy Garcia (R) and incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) will face off against insurance broker Rafael Alcoser III (I).

District 29:
Democratic incumbent Sylvia Garcia won her party's primary unopposed. Meanwhile, license life and health insruance agent Julio Garza (R) and 2020 candidate for the same seat Robert Schafranek (R) defeated 2020 candidate for the same Jaimy Annette Zoboulikos-Blanco ("Jaimy Blanco") (R) and executive risk mamanger Lulite Ejigu (R) to advance to a runoff. IIn the runoff, Robert Schafranek (R) defeated Julio Garza (R) to advance to the general election. Robert Schafranek (R) and incumbent Sylvia Garcia (D) will face unknown T.D. Blackshure (I) and 2018 write-in candidate for the same seat Johnathan Garza (I) in the general election.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Addendum #2:

District 30:
This district had two runoffs. First, probation officer James Harris (R) and Christian non-profit recruiter James Rodgers (R) beat Dallas Baptist University graduate Lizbeth Diaz (R), CEO of criiminal investigation firm Kevlin Goodwin-Castillo (R), business owner Dakinya Jefferson (R), and unknown Angeigh Roc'ellerpitts (R) to advance to the Republican primary runoff. Meanwhile, Texas State Representative Jasmine Crockett (D) and Joe Biden 2020 Texas campaign adviser Jane Hamilton (D) beat former Texas State Representative Barbara Mallory Caraway (D), community organizer Arthur Dixon (D), fomer Dallas City Councilwoman Vonciel Jones Hill (D), Texas A & M University-Commerce graduate Keisha Lankford (D), Virginiia General Assembly legislatve staffer Jessica MAson (D), Texas House of Representatives legislative director Abel Mulugheta (D), and Dallas City Constables member Roy Williams, Jr. (D). At the runoffs, James Rodgers (R) defeated James Harris (R), and Jasmine Crockett (D) defeated Jane Hamilton (D). Jasmine Crockett (D) and James Rodgers (R) will take on property manager Phil Gray (L), 2020 Dallas County Commissioners court candidate Zachariah Manning (I), and 2018 candidate for the same seat Eric Williams (I) in the general election.

District 31:
This district was home to a general election primary, with only Republicans running. Incubment John Carter (R) beat back a challenge from rewl estate broker Abhiram Garapati (R) and firefight Mike Williams (R) to win the general election unopposed.

District 32:
Incumbent Democrat Collin Allred (D) advanced to the general election from the primary with no opposition. Meanwhile, Wingstop Restaurants founder Antonio Swad (R) and Marine Corps and Navy Veteran Justin Webb (R) beat business owner Nathan Davis (R), journalist Darrell Day (R), public school teach Brad Namdar (R), and CEO of the OKPA company Ejike "EE" Okpa to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary. Antonio Swad (R) beat Justin Webb (R) to win the Republican nomination. Incumbent Collin Allred (D) and Antonio Swad (R) will face off in the general election.

District 33:
Incumbent Democrat Marc Veasey (D) defeated president of Accion America Carlos Quintanilla (D) to advanced to the general election. Meanwhile, UPS SCS employee Patrick Gillespie (R) defeated Hadden Landscaping sales manager Robert MacGlaflin (R) in the Republican primary to advance to the general election. Incumbent Marc Veasey (D) and Repulbiican Robert MacGlaflin (R) will face teacher and engineer Ken Ashby (L) in the general election.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Addendum #3:
District 34:
This district combines the old Congressional District 15 and the old Congressional District 34. Incumbent Democrat Vincente Gonzalez Jr. (D-15) beat back a challenge from unknown Laura Cisneros (D), unknown Filemon Meza (D), the intern for U.S. Representative Lloyd Doggett (D), Beatriz Reynoso (D), unknown Osbert Rodriguez Haro III (D), Marine Corps veteran William Thompson (D), and high school teacher Diego Zavala to advance out of his party's primary and into the general election. Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Mayra Flores (R-34) beat back a challenge from sexual assault nurse examiner Juana Cantu-Cabrera (R), cyber security specialist Gregory Kunkle Jr. (R), and graduate from Johns Hopkins University Frank McCaffrey (R). Incumbent Democrat Vincente Gonzalez Jr. (D) and Repubican incumbent Mayra Flores (R) will face unknown Ronald Mills (I) and 2020 candidate for the same seat Chris Royal (I).

District 35:
This is an open seat. Former Austin City Councilman Greg Casar (D) defeated Texas State Representative Eddie Rodriguez (D), business process consultant Carla-Joy Sisco (D), and former San Antonio City Councilwoman Rebecca J. Viagran (D) to win the Demcoratic primary. Meanwhile, former 2022 U.S. Senate candidate for Missouri Dan McQueen (R--not a typo) and unknown Michael Rodriguez (R) beat entrpreneur and investor Jenaii Aragona-Hales (R), Navy veteran Bill Condict (R), business owner Marilyn Jackson (R), construction iindustry worker Alejandro Ledezma (R), Infowars video editor Sam Montoya (R), Cascadia Global Security cofounder Asa Palagi (R), Air Force veteran Dan Sawatzki (R), and a court attonrey for New York County Supreme Court Justice Laura Drager, Jennifer Sundt (R) to advance to the Republican primary runoff. In the runnoff, Dan McQueen (R) defeated Michael Rodriguez (R). Dan McQueen (R) and Greg Casar (D) face off against 2020 candidate for the same seat William Hayward (I).

Diitrict 36:
This district has been in the general election phase since the candidiate filing deadline. Incumbent Republican Brian Babin (R) wins his party's primary unopposed. Meanwhile, professor of nuclear engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology Jon Haire (D) wins the Democratic primary unopposed.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Addendum #4:
District 37:
Democratic incumbent Lloyd Doggett (D) held back a challenge from unknown Quinton"Q" Beaubouef (D), president of ProductCamp Austin Donna Imam (D), and director of video transaction optimization with Kapsch TraffiicCom Northa America Christopher Jones (D) to advance from his party's primary to the general election. Meanwhile, undergraduate in administrationn from the University of the Incarnate Word Jenny Garcia Sharon (R) and corporate pilot Rod Lingsch (R) beat Navy veteran Jeremiah Diacogiannis (R) to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary. At the runoff, Jenny Garcia Sharon (R) beat Rod Lingsch (R). Jenny Garcia Sharon (R) and incumbent Lloyd Doggett (D) will face Clark Patterson Photography and Videography owner Clark Patterson (L) and unknwon Benjamin Ovard (I) in the general election

District 38:
This is an open seat. Army veteran Wesley Hunt (R) defeated a challenge from former Colorado State Representatiive Phillip Covarrubias (R), unknown Alex Cross (R), Jerry Ford's Allstate Inusrance Agency owner Jerry Ford Sr. (R), educator and coach Brett Guillory (R), executive pastor at Spring First Church David Hogan (R), finance and strategy consultant Roland Lopez (R), personal trainer Damien Mockus (R), chief of staff of the Texas House of Representatives Mark Ramsey (R), and lead operator with Energy Transfer Richard Welch (R) to advance to the general election from the Republican primary. Meanwhile, unknown Duncan Klusmann (D) and founder of the Houston Rebel Alliance and Flip It Writing Brigade Diana Martinez Alexander defeated former 2022 candidate for Texas's 7th District Centrell Reed (D-not a typo) to advance to a Democratic primary runoff. Duncan Klussman (D) defeated Diana Martinez Alexander (D) in the Democratic runoff. Wesley Hunt (R) and Duncan Klussman (D) will face 2018 candidate for the 2nd Congressional District Scott Cubbler (I) and unknown Joel Dejean (I) in the general election.

Governor:
Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott (R) held off a challenge from former U.S. Representative from Florida Allen B. West, former Texas State Senator Donald Huffines (R), unknown Chad Prather (R), Republican Part precinct chair in Parker County Rick Perry ("Ricky Lynn" -- no, not that Rick Perry), graduate from the University of Texas at Arlington Kandy Kaye Horn (R), unknown Paul Belew (R), and undergraduate from Stephen F. Austin University Daniel Harrison (R) to advance to the general election. Meanwhile, former 2020 Presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke (D) defeated reporter and producer Joy Diaz (D), pastor Michael Cooper (D), unknown Inocencio Barriientez (D), and founder of Emergency Restaurant Repair LLC Rich Wakeland (D). Incumbent Greg Abbott (R) and Beto O'Rourke (D) will face healthcare worker Delilah Barrios (G), international legal and business consultant Mark Tippetts (L), unknown Raul Cortina (I), unknown Justin Cunneeen (I), unknown Jal Dennis (I), graduate from Prairie View A & M University Deirdre Dickson-Gilbert (I), unknown Jorge Franco (I), unknown Reginald Jennings II (I), unknown Chioma Okoro (I), unknown Jeremy Rios (I), unknown Sean Sharp (I), 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (I), and unkown Demetra Wysinger (I) in the general election.